但为什么有了疫苗却死亡人数更多了呢? U.S. has already seen more COVID deaths in 2021 than 2020 before vaccines were available, as experts again warn pandemic is not over https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-has-already-seen-more-covid-deaths-in-2021-than-2020-before-vaccines-were-available-as-experts-again-warn-pandemic-is-not-over-11637769586
但为什么有了疫苗却死亡人数更多了呢? U.S. has already seen more COVID deaths in 2021 than 2020 before vaccines were available, as experts again warn pandemic is not over https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-has-already-seen-more-covid-deaths-in-2021-than-2020-before-vaccines-were-available-as-experts-again-warn-pandemic-is-not-over-11637769586
但为什么有了疫苗却死亡人数更多了呢? U.S. has already seen more COVID deaths in 2021 than 2020 before vaccines were available, as experts again warn pandemic is not over https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-has-already-seen-more-covid-deaths-in-2021-than-2020-before-vaccines-were-available-as-experts-again-warn-pandemic-is-not-over-11637769586
uk好像打算靠booster抵抗O变种 Covid: UK aims for 500,000 jabs a day in bid to outpace Omicron variant Covid booster jabs are to be offered to all over-18s in the UK to help stop a potential wave of infections driven by the new variant Omicron. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation made a series of recommendations to expand the booster rollout. It said the minimum gap between the second vaccine dose and booster should be reduced from six to three months.
南非发飙了 tulio de oliveira, director of CERI SA Today, I spent a big part of my day talking to genomic and biotech companies as soon we will run out of reagents as airplanes are not flying to South Africa! It will be 'evil' if we can not answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban! Nope, I will not accept reagents without releasing the travel ban! Your secretary of state said today that in spite of local transmission she would not close their airspace of the border as she needs to protect the U.K. economy... We need to realize that this is a global pandemic.
南非发飙了 tulio de oliveira, director of CERI SA Today, I spent a big part of my day talking to genomic and biotech companies as soon we will run out of reagents as airplanes are not flying to South Africa! It will be 'evil' if we can not answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban! Nope, I will not accept reagents without releasing the travel ban! Your secretary of state said today that in spite of local transmission she would not close their airspace of the border as she needs to protect the U.K. economy... We need to realize that this is a global pandemic.
南非发飙了 tulio de oliveira, director of CERI SA Today, I spent a big part of my day talking to genomic and biotech companies as soon we will run out of reagents as airplanes are not flying to South Africa! It will be 'evil' if we can not answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban! Nope, I will not accept reagents without releasing the travel ban! Your secretary of state said today that in spite of local transmission she would not close their airspace of the border as she needs to protect the U.K. economy... We need to realize that this is a global pandemic.
回复 1009楼vitd120的帖子 Megtirrell推 CDC now says all adults should get boosters (previous guidance was “may” get boosters), citing risk from Omicron。 Viviennedd 发表于 2021-11-29 16:53
Israel’s sole confirmed omicron case is a 34-year-old foreign worker from Malawi who came to Israel last week via South Africa and Dubai. 没看见有打了三针,而且不是以色列人。 你的source在哪里?
Israel’s sole confirmed omicron case is a 34-year-old foreign worker from Malawi who came to Israel last week via South Africa and Dubai. 没看见有打了三针,而且不是以色列人。 你的source在哪里? surge 发表于 2021-11-29 17:17
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/03/world/israel-covid-booster.html Israel will require a booster shot to be considered fully vaccinated. (publish date 10/3)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-detects-first-case-of-new-highly-mutated-covid-19-strain/ The first case of a new, highly mutated coronavirus variant that first emerged in South Africa was detected in Israel on Friday, the Health Ministry announced, a development that experts have been fearing. The person was identified as an Israeli who had returned from Malawi. The ministry said two others were suspected of also being infected with the new strain, currently known by its scientific name B.1.1.529, and were awaiting final test results. All three were vaccinated, the ministry said, adding that their inoculation details were still being verified. 以色列必须打三针才算fully vaccinated 一例阳性和两例疑似都是fully vaccinated的
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/03/world/israel-covid-booster.html Israel will require a booster shot to be considered fully vaccinated. (publish date 10/3)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-detects-first-case-of-new-highly-mutated-covid-19-strain/ The first case of a new, highly mutated coronavirus variant that first emerged in South Africa was detected in Israel on Friday, the Health Ministry announced, a development that experts have been fearing. The person was identified as an Israeli who had returned from Malawi. The ministry said two others were suspected of also being infected with the new strain, currently known by its scientific name B.1.1.529, and were awaiting final test results. All three were vaccinated, the ministry said, adding that their inoculation details were still being verified. 以色列必须打三针才算fully vaccinated 一例阳性和两例疑似都是fully vaccinated的
CleverBeaver 发表于 2021-11-29 17:24
这是你发的链接原文:All three were vaccinated, the ministry said, adding that their inoculation details were still being verified 你这是自己脑补? 人家里面有说是fully vaccicated 吗? 怎么到你这里就是言之凿凿了?
这是你发的链接原文:All three were vaccinated, the ministry said, adding that their inoculation details were still being verified 你这是自己脑补? 人家里面有说是fully vaccicated 吗? 何况那个case都不是以色列人,一周前才到以色列。 怎么到你这里就是言之凿凿了? surge 发表于 2021-11-29 17:30
Meanwhile, a second person in Israel was confirmed to be carrying the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, the Health Ministry said. The woman entered Israel from South Africa recently, the ministry said. An Israeli citizen, aged 32, she had been vaccinated three times, Channel 13 news reported. She had been on vacation with her husband and child, both of whom have tested negative for COVID, the TV report said. https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-2nd-omicron-case-found-israel-bars-airport-arrivals-from-taking-buses-trains/ 第二例也是三针
这个我简单说一下我的理解。per 100K是用来比较counts with different population size的,是一个normailzed counts。 per 100K 如果是州与州之间比较,那normalization的分母是各州的人口数。比如,ytwk1用明尼苏达州的例子, cases per 100K = 100K x # of all cases / # of state population ; death per 100K = 100K x # of all death / # of state population, 因为分母是一样的,所以用raw counts 或 per 100K计算的死亡率结果数值是一样的。这种normalized counts 是便于州与州之间的比较。 而我们之前算的是州里内部,新感染数 对于非疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of unvaxed cases / # of total unvaxed population in state; 对于疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of vaxed cases / # of total vaxed population in state; 而death per 100K 的分母是什么我其实不太确定,是 # of total death in vaxed or unvaxed in state吗(这个分母death不一定是感染新冠的death)? 还是仍然是# of vaxed/unvaxed population in state?还是其他的什么? 总之,死亡率的计算很直接,只要有case和death的raw counts就可以算,不需要绕per 100K这个弯子。
这个我简单说一下我的理解。per 100K是用来比较counts with different population size的,是一个normailzed counts。 per 100K 如果是州与州之间比较,那normalization的分母是各州的人口数。比如,ytwk1用明尼苏达州的例子, cases per 100K = 100K x # of all cases / # of state population ; death per 100K = 100K # of all death / # of state population, 因为分母是一样的,所以用raw counts 或 per 100K计算的死亡率结果数值是一样的。这种normalized counts 是便于州与州之间的比较。 而我们之前算的是州里内部,新感染数 对于非疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of unvaxed cases / # of total unvaxed population in state; 对于疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of vaxed cases / # of total vaxed population in state; 而death per 100K 的分母是什么我其实不太确定,是 # of total death in vaxed or unvaxed in state吗(这个分母death不一定是感染新冠的death)? 还是仍然是# of vaxed/unvaxed population in state?还是其他的什么? 总之,死亡率的计算很直接,只要有case和death的raw counts就可以算,不需要绕per 100K这个弯子。
哈哈,还倒打一耙说我造谣。 就在你的同一个文章里 Returning Israelis, including those fully vaccinated, from any of the countries now considered “red” will be required to isolate at a state-run hotel for a week。 也就是说, 不是fully vaccinated也可以回以色列啊。 另外,华盛顿邮报说的是那个人是foreign worker, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/israel-omicron-borders-coronavirus/2021/11/28/f315184a-5015-11ec-a7b8-9ed28bf23929_story.html, 所以我有这个印象。 我们的争论点是这个人有没有打了booster。 你在人家以色列政府还在说要verify疫苗详情的情况下,就说这是打了三针的,是不是太不负责乱传谣?
是不是可以看excess mortality rate 分成每个年龄组和每个州 the economist好像有个github repo有数据 但不知道数据有多久远
CleverBeaver 发表于 2021-11-29 20:52
基本就是这个意思,对照组的数据,就是对照组本身是一个pool,然后在本身的pool里开始对比各种rate 我在5个月前就猜测疫苗无效 https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2708653&posterid=358123 因为cdc从来没有发布过这组数据,提取这个数据根本就是piece of cake,当然对cdc这样的组织来说,那是要了老命了,哈哈 每天 new case:xxxx,xx% fully vaccinated Hospitalize:same set data Death:same set data
这个我简单说一下我的理解。per 100K是用来比较counts with different population size的,是一个normailzed counts。 per 100K 如果是州与州之间比较,那normalization的分母是各州的人口数。比如,ytwk1用明尼苏达州的例子, cases per 100K = 100K x # of all cases / # of state population ; death per 100K = 100K x # of all death / # of state population, 因为分母是一样的,所以用raw counts 或 per 100K计算的死亡率结果数值是一样的。这种normalized counts 是便于州与州之间的比较。 而我们之前算的是州里内部,新感染数 对于非疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of unvaxed cases / # of total unvaxed population in state; 对于疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of vaxed cases / # of total vaxed population in state; 而death per 100K 的分母是什么我其实不太确定,是 # of total death in vaxed or unvaxed in state吗(这个分母death不一定是感染新冠的death)? 还是仍然是# of vaxed/unvaxed population in state?还是其他的什么? 总之,死亡率的计算很直接,只要有case和death的raw counts就可以算,不需要绕per 100K这个弯子。
因为 1)疫苗有药厂巨大利益,所以他们一致推,全球推,而且抗科学大旗,很好推 2)口罩、隔离这种有效但无利润,甚至还会被骂的举措,就没人推 3)政客必须做事显得在抗疫,所以跟着推疫苗就是他们自然选择,至于死77万抗疫毫无效果,没人担责任只有各种甩锅 4)唯一敢干实事不在作秀的,只有中国,结果大家都看到,事实就是事实
估计是因为放松了npi。。。
true
但不知道那些小时候学校里数学都没教好的大众要怎么办
昨天那个uk医生的blog 一大堆病人搞不懂官媒宣传的booster在搞点什么 他们的咨询拥堵了医疗资源 真正需要看病的人却更看不到医生了 而且太多的服务机构用covid来搪塞一切
我自己虽然已慢慢习惯并adapt to这个现状 但总感觉哪里很不对劲
就是说疫苗作用不能抵消没有物理隔离的情况。我觉得有足够疫苗接种率也抵消不了。曾经对疫苗充满希望,现在我对疫苗或任何一种形式的抗体以免疫的作用结束这场疫情都信心不大。
是,所以疫苗不妨传染,推广给重症率极低的儿童,是让人无法理解的。 中年感染人数增加,这部分人本来也是社会劳动力中坚,接触面最多的吧。儿童活动差不多是疫情前的常态,所以儿童感染人数上升快。如果能稍加限制儿童接触面,可以控制的很好。但政令限制需要拨款吧,反正儿童不会影响医疗系统,政府就不花这个钱了。这个还是需要个人自己调整吧
这个计算是从2021年1月1日算起的吗?
从我们州的死亡曲线来看,2021年的1月2月,还在峰值,到3月份左右才降下来,那个时候疫苗第一针才开始打。再算上南方州波峰来的更晚,那总数2021超过2020也是正常的。
你不看下2021死亡的大多数都是一二月没打疫苗前这波
没办法啊,因为看多了,才在前面提醒不要忽视小症状不要推迟常规体检。尽量平常心吧,谁也不知道谁能对多久,盲盒。眼下做个人最优化选择就是了。
疫苗对放传染还是有作用的,至少在我们这个东北小州,当然是没有95%这么高,但是也不算很差了。最近5-12岁开始打疫苗,看接下来两三个月的数据,是不是会反应出来。
我昨天看到说美国近期老年人死亡数和去年同比也更多了
我同意之前有同学说的 大家都一半自由一半快乐 back to semi normal是一个可以接受的结果
但是原来说好的打疫苗保护老年人并没有实现 那我们还打什么疫苗呢?
小孩放回去上学 哪怕不戴口罩 我都觉得可以接受了 因为学校只是加快了病毒在社区的传播
病毒从其他地方被带进社区的一大漏洞是打了疫苗就可以不测 所以疫情不绝是expected outcome
exactly 疫苗并没有像宣传的那样有物理隔离甚至口罩的效果
谢谢提醒
疫苗不妨传染,防传染的概念是群体疫苗率乘以有效性,超过百分之八十,可以阻断社区传播。目前免疫率高的地区和国家都没有阻断过社区传播,比如以色列。疫苗人群不是不传播,而是轻症,数据相对会比实际人数少,因为轻症无症状不去测。感觉疫苗是让新冠流感化。
难得的大实话
明白你的意思了,但是现在这个情况,阻断肯定是不可能了,就是别overwhelm healthcare就好了,如果最后真的都是轻症无症,也算是胜利了
这是身体好的人在夏天的症状
本来不也就是个大流感?
看你发言半天,感觉官方操纵数据,误导普通人的手法,真是无语。。。
我对反疫苗的很多发言和证据也有同感
at least the evidence is not very compelling
媒体一直当这疫苗可以阻挡传播来报道 但实际情况呢?防重症这条也不是那么清晰的 但比防传染好一点
你这个我回头仔细看一下,如果知道疫苗组和非疫苗组的raw counts数据,算死亡率非常直接,就是# of death / # of cases 在各自的分组!我算的不是混合死亡率,这个应该和疫苗率没有太大关系吧?疫苗率只是提高了疫苗组的数据收集点。
我的看法是根据这个报告,mRNA疫苗也根本不能防止感染 病毒后的死亡。
我看了一下你的计算,我感觉是对的。
Covid: UK aims for 500,000 jabs a day in bid to outpace Omicron variant
Covid booster jabs are to be offered to all over-18s in the UK to help stop a potential wave of infections driven by the new variant Omicron. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation made a series of recommendations to expand the booster rollout. It said the minimum gap between the second vaccine dose and booster should be reduced from six to three months.
Today, I spent a big part of my day talking to genomic and biotech companies as soon we will run out of reagents as airplanes are not flying to South Africa! It will be 'evil' if we can not answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban!
Nope, I will not accept reagents without releasing the travel ban! Your secretary of state said today that in spite of local transmission she would not close their airspace of the border as she needs to protect the U.K. economy... We need to realize that this is a global pandemic.
一群科学家反对travel ban……
他们好像很委屈: South Africa says it is being punished for early COVID variant detection
Megtirrell推
CDC now says all adults should get boosters (previous guidance was “may” get boosters), citing risk from Omicron。
问题是效果咋样啊?
嗯嗯 看到了
我也觉得是problem of trust 我站南非科学家们 从他们公开序列的行为和透明度来看 代表了非常良好的科学态度
我们能说点啥??
参见以色列三针后仍感染立马关闭国门
我一直想知道这是如何做到的:打了前两针不能防,打了第三针就能防变异50处的病毒?
一直以来,公开是义务,TRAVEL BAN是各国必须的保护自己的手段。
公开,就是为了研判威胁程度,是不是要TRAVEL BAN.
是,这几天一直在反对禁航。科学家们的意思是,其实变种已经到处都是了禁了没用,过几周就知道了能不能取代delta成主流了。而且南非经济雪上加霜发达国家不给经济支援的话,这日子没法儿过了,没病死就要饿死了。也是实话。
确实是 人家现在是旅游季 你们都给禁航
以色列有打了三针后感染的case? 人家关闭国门只不过为了保险起见,等两周后研究出来再做决定罢了。
以色列的那一例o感染就是三针后的呀
是的 连日本都关了 有的东西说给我们听估计怕我们受惊吓 心脏受不了
的确很委屈。从自己利益而言, 我支持travel ban, 少进来一点是一点。 但是,要是这样的话,以后其他国家就不愿意做early detection了,长远而言不利
是吗? 我查查
这不是明晃晃鼓励各国政府都不要测吗?英国和南非都未必就是首发地,测了发布了倒被惩罚,以后大家一起不负责任地躺平呗。
快查快查
而且打了三针对的以色列第一反应关国门 这个是什么意思?打booster没有用啊。我打了两针 第三针等等再说
是的 对小国来说 这次travel ban就是鼓励under report或直接不报
楼主 请看过来:
你写的很多科普帖子我和不少在生物科技,药厂,检测,药物研发和临床的朋友同事都很佩服。太有价值了!必须得给给楼主点个大大大的赞👍
我们不发帖则罢,发帖肯定有喷子胡乱喷。如果因此删帖,生气,不就正中恶人之下怀?我的做法就是除非私下短信,否则一律不看,到此打住。眼不看为净。
发帖的目的就是想用自己有限的专业知识帮助更多的人,尤其是华人上的同胞。那些喷子,就是良心被狗吃了。何必违背自己的初衷,降低了自己去理会他们?
Israel’s sole confirmed omicron case is a 34-year-old foreign worker from Malawi who came to Israel last week via South Africa and Dubai.
没看见有打了三针,而且不是以色列人。 你的source在哪里?
抗体衰减快,有效性不如预期。就像口罩,没n95, 怎么办?不是连手工口罩都戴过么?主要是连一针都没打过的人太多太多了,裸奔的太多,叠戴几层口罩管不管用都心理舒坦吧。副作用?别讨论了,口罩也有副作用。个人不打booster不能劝别人也别打,个人决定。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/03/world/israel-covid-booster.html
Israel will require a booster shot to be considered fully vaccinated. (publish date 10/3)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-detects-first-case-of-new-highly-mutated-covid-19-strain/
The first case of a new, highly mutated coronavirus variant that first emerged in South Africa was detected in Israel on Friday, the Health Ministry announced, a development that experts have been fearing.
The person was identified as an Israeli who had returned from Malawi.
The ministry said two others were suspected of also being infected with the new strain, currently known by its scientific name B.1.1.529, and were awaiting final test results.
All three were vaccinated, the ministry said, adding that their inoculation details were still being verified.
以色列必须打三针才算fully vaccinated
一例阳性和两例疑似都是fully vaccinated的
自己知识有限(有大量盲点)却还当成真理来传播才是良心被狗吃了吧
说得很好,更何况在美国的主要病毒变种还是Delta。
对 自己想打完全应该打 但不要瞎说功效并强制别人
这是你发的链接原文:All three were vaccinated, the ministry said, adding that their inoculation details were still being verified
你这是自己脑补? 人家里面有说是fully vaccicated 吗? 怎么到你这里就是言之凿凿了?
楼主不必仔细回答这个人的提问。这个人是否听力很有问题还是有意无意在误导?
她似乎只节选自己想听的,而不是听楼主说的。
purple highlight说是以色列人啊 人家以色列时报自己的报道
你这个也太不负责了 乱传谣
不是fully vaccinated会给你上飞机?
请千万不要再删除此贴,我们静静等待看BOOSTER对新病毒有没有用。
传播知识是要提倡的,当然无罪,但传播错误知识是有罪的,如果还不让别人指出错误,不让人说话,就是中世纪的黑暗教会
对于你,从来不缺的,早就有了名字,叫脑 粉
意思明显,这个帖子里的一堆人故意读不懂,明显就不是智力问题。
jesse bloom也这么说
四组epitope groups有三组都有大变化 唯一没啥变的那组是抗体产生最弱的
The woman entered Israel from South Africa recently, the ministry said.
An Israeli citizen, aged 32, she had been vaccinated three times, Channel 13 news reported. She had been on vacation with her husband and child, both of whom have tested negative for COVID, the TV report said.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-2nd-omicron-case-found-israel-bars-airport-arrivals-from-taking-buses-trains/
第二例也是三针
zhihu屎哥, bloom 的发来这里看看
各个民主,自由,灯塔的大国们整齐划一的行动,历史上这样的事情不太多
发过了啊 就在这楼里 自己往最前翻
以色列感染o的第三针的事你查清楚了吗?这么简单的事都会查错 你叫大家怎么相信你的数据和calculations甚至是疫苗有效的结论!
这个我简单说一下我的理解。per 100K是用来比较counts with different population size的,是一个normailzed counts。
per 100K 如果是州与州之间比较,那normalization的分母是各州的人口数。比如,ytwk1用明尼苏达州的例子, cases per 100K = 100K x # of all cases / # of state population ; death per 100K = 100K x # of all death / # of state population, 因为分母是一样的,所以用raw counts 或 per 100K计算的死亡率结果数值是一样的。这种normalized counts 是便于州与州之间的比较。
而我们之前算的是州里内部,新感染数 对于非疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of unvaxed cases / # of total unvaxed population in state; 对于疫苗组,cases per 100K = 100K x # of vaxed cases / # of total vaxed population in state;
而death per 100K 的分母是什么我其实不太确定,是 # of total death in vaxed or unvaxed in state吗(这个分母death不一定是感染新冠的death)? 还是仍然是# of vaxed/unvaxed population in state?还是其他的什么?
总之,死亡率的计算很直接,只要有case和death的raw counts就可以算,不需要绕per 100K这个弯子。
没错,越简单的数据越好 现在数据被manupulated 太厉害了,cdc自己都不知道自己人究竟多少还没打疫苗,让我怎么相信cdc的任何数据
反正cdc的数据我当它garbage
哈哈,还倒打一耙说我造谣。
就在你的同一个文章里
Returning Israelis, including those fully vaccinated, from any of the countries now considered “red” will be required to isolate at a state-run hotel for a week。 也就是说, 不是fully vaccinated也可以回以色列啊。
另外,华盛顿邮报说的是那个人是foreign worker, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/israel-omicron-borders-coronavirus/2021/11/28/f315184a-5015-11ec-a7b8-9ed28bf23929_story.html, 所以我有这个印象。
我们的争论点是这个人有没有打了booster。 你在人家以色列政府还在说要verify疫苗详情的情况下,就说这是打了三针的,是不是太不负责乱传谣?
层主认错人了 ,层主好好休息,别和那些看不懂数据的人浪费时间
首先group应该有以下几个 1)fully vaccinated 2) partial vaccinated 3) non-vaccinated 4) status unknown
每组group的definition都要clear,打完第二针,或者booster多少时间以后算fully,否则归为2)。。。。如果只有vaccinated 和non- vaccinated,就是garbage
用logic,用脑子想一想就知道了,我不是生物专业的,但是基本的科学素养,和逻辑思考能力还是有的
德州的老年组死亡人数多还真不一定是怎么回事,为什么我算出来的德州75+老年组死亡率,疫苗组比非疫苗组高那么多?老人是因为疫苗死的吗?那为啥还说老人要多打疫苗多打booster?我打算再算算其他州的死亡率看看,你们有数据的也可以算算。
记得你是特别推崇中国灭活疫苗的。我一般对此也不说什么, 打了疫苗总比没有好。同样逻辑,中国现在疫苗率比以色列高多了,booster也打起来了。 也不要说这个未知新变种, 就拿Delta变种的时候, 对入境这个限制那个限制的, 说明了什么?
sorry sorry
说明爱民如子? 坚决不能为了经济,为了疫苗商,医院,资本家的利益,让任何人枉死(有病的,有基因缺陷的,年老的,没有钱需要天天上街谋生的,不能呆在家里的上班的,不能不上班的)?
就是中国打BOOSTER,如果是用MRNA疫苗也一样扯淡啊。不过好象中国用的99%是灭活的吧。
说明了这个国家business和politics主导 而不是science
为什么我说要经过时间的检测 第一 要相信自己的免疫系统 这是经过millions of years的检测的 第二 灭火的制造工艺精细、成果经过起码百年的检测 实在没办法 死马当活马医的打一下新型疫苗也没啥(只要不要胡乱宣传结果强迫老老小小都无差别的打,搞的医护不打都不能工作、医疗资源就更紧缺了就可以)
为啥这么双标? 以色列在这个新变种还没有被研究清楚,不知道现有疫苗有效性的情况下,关闭两周, 你说这是表示疫苗无效。 当中国做类似的事的时候,你不说中国政府对疫苗没信心,而是爱民如子?
顺便说一句,你承认你不负责乱传谣了吗?
这个病毒抵抗,就象打一场防御战争。一般防御战是要尽量设置尽可能多的多道防线的,第一道 第二道 ,第三道。。。。
你的这混乱的逻辑的意思是,只要设置多道防线的战争中的一方,都是因为对第一道防线外的防线没有任何信心,第二道,第三道防线根本没有用,也不会在第一道防线破了后,能保护任何人?
传谣?哪里?
疫苗开发MRNA本意就是等病毒变异的,然后再发表新疫苗,再收割一批股市,他们管这叫疫苗药物的“可持续发展道路“
只不过,这次的病毒是王者,变异太快,用来打脸
具体情况需要具体分析
灭火更broad其实 只针对spike的mRNA疫苗反而很narrow
从理论上来说 很难总结出mRNA一定更好
哎
民众太倒霉
看1051层
目前的fully vaccinated是打过第二针14天以上,所有打一针或这打了2针不够14天的或者status unkown的都算作是unvaccinated. 所以这样的数据,你们怎么算都不可能是公平的。
各种死法都可以有,就是不能新冠死。死前核酸阴性,所以死后不计入新冠死亡统计数字。
明明是你的搜索水平不够高 还想继续鸵鸟 连什么国家的人都搞不清楚
这样的话,manipulated 的空间就太大了 un-vaccinated 就是一个垃圾桶啊,什么不好的数据就往里扔, 所以vaccinated的死亡率和unvaccinated的死亡率比,就对了,别和我说什么unvaccinated的死亡率是几倍,呵呵
是不是可以看excess mortality rate
分成每个年龄组和每个州
the economist好像有个github repo有数据 但不知道数据有多久远
基本就是这个意思,对照组的数据,就是对照组本身是一个pool,然后在本身的pool里开始对比各种rate
我在5个月前就猜测疫苗无效 https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2708653&posterid=358123
因为cdc从来没有发布过这组数据,提取这个数据根本就是piece of cake,当然对cdc这样的组织来说,那是要了老命了,哈哈
每天 new case:xxxx,xx% fully vaccinated Hospitalize:same set data Death:same set data
灭活更broad?哪里看出来的?流感疫苗不就是灭活的,每年跟赌博似的,毒株不对,直接完蛋
你的双标就在于当以色列设立了第一道防线 (封国两周), 你就说他的第二道防线(疫苗)一点用也没有。这不就是你口中的“混乱的逻辑”吗? 哈哈, 你这不是自己打自己耳光吗?
你就是嘴硬。我们争执的焦点是国籍吗? 再说两个报道,凭什么说你的对,我的错?
关键在于这个以色列confirmed case 的人有没有打第三针booster。你引述的报道就是说以色列还在核对疫苗的详情,同样的报道也表明, 不是fully vaccinated也可以回以色列。 你在事实不清的情况下,已经在那里大肆说打了booster的人得了这个新的变种,不是传谣是什么? 不对不对,你不是传谣是造谣。
我都是了per 100k就是各自组里的100k,上面都有很给你用两种方法算了验证了ratio是一样的,你不看我也没办法
cdc有个更详细的数据库你可以自己去看,你真觉得很懂数据可以分析下就完了,
https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/3rge-nu2a
rsv的灭活也是百年工艺,mers/sars也是,你不觉得吃的尴尬吗
要说最安全还是重组蛋白的,现在新一代疫苗全是这个,带状疱疹hpv,国内都是抢破头打,一针一千多还是多针,你为啥不去要求国产做个灭活的?
好数据。。。
我有纠正别人的强迫症,纠正你的错误:新一代疫苗是MRNA的,你的重组疫苗是老一代的好吧
我说的是现在大家打的带状疱疹和hpv ..., 这些灭活也都不好使。新冠灭活好不好使你去问问南非外派那些人就知道了
明尼苏达州那个例子是州与州的比较,case和death的normalization分母是一样的,都是州人口数,但和我要做的州内情况不一样,除非你能证明州内疫苗组和非疫苗组死亡率用raw counts算和 per 100K算结果一样。