The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society. And non of the real estate companies are/were the largest companies in the US. In contrast to China, real estate companies were consistently part of the largest companies in the country until recently they all collapsed due to their usd debts. While chinese citizen built wealth by riding the real estate boom, but the majority of the real estate wealth went to the real estate moguls and their political partners. The chinese citizens are now left holding the real estate bust bag. You kept on saying you know economics, but sometimes common sense is more important for one to think critically than what's been taught in the books of economics. QE was not part of any economics books before it was implemented. Economics are the symptoms that you can see from the outside, to diagnose the root cause, you need to dig deeper than that.
lol, you hit the nail on the head, the top quality of manufacturing is reserved for companies like Apple. Everyday consumer products are still from low quality manufacturing.
You can either bet on America or move to another country (like the ones here so bullish on China, don't just say it, do it). Will America end up like Roman empire? Probably (like any other empires in history), but don't think you will see it in our lifetime or our children's lifetime. Even if usd collapse (this would also mean other currencies will burn to the ground), people in the US would still be fine because the country has abundance of natural resources, huge land to grow food, and the most advanced technologies. UK has lost world power post ww2, people there are still fine, right?
The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society. And non of the real estate companies are/were the largest companies in the US. In contrast to China, real estate companies were consistently part of the largest companies in the country until recently they all collapsed due to their usd debts. While chinese citizen built wealth by riding the real estate boom, but the majority of the real estate wealth went to the real estate moguls and their political partners. The chinese citizens are now left holding the real estate bust bag. You kept on saying you know economics, but sometimes common sense is more important for one to think critically than what's been taught in the books of economics. QE was not part of any economics books before it was implemented. Economics are the symptoms that you can see from the outside, to diagnose the root cause, you need to dig deeper than that. kikkomenn 发表于 2022-08-14 17:28
1) Homeownership rates in the U.S. at 65.3% Today China is a country of homeowners with more than 90% of households owning homes (87% in urban and 96% in rural China) (Clark, Huang, & Yi, 2019). At the same time, more than 20% Chinese households own multiple homes, “The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society” 还真有脸说这话？搞笑么？ 2) QE 在大萧条时期就用过了，当然是part of the economic text books 没学过经济？
1) Homeownership rates in the U.S. at 65.3% Today China is a country of homeowners with more than 90% of households owning homes (87% in urban and 96% in rural China) (Clark, Huang, & Yi, 2019). At the same time, more than 20% Chinese households own multiple homes, “The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society” 还真有脸说这话？搞笑么？ 2) QE 在大萧条时期就用过了，当然是part of the economic text books 没学过经济？
This is kinda true. Most of the people coming out of STEM are just high level intelligent workers, who can't really think critically outside of what they do, think about Detroit factory workers, Pittsiburgh steel workers in the US heydays and now the software developers. Liberal arts should be the ultimate goal if you are raising children, but they should still understand how STEM works.
they selling treasuries to raise usd to pay the bills. these countries already know shxt is coming, like most of the people here are keeping more cash on hand than buy buy buy...
You can either bet on America or move to another country (like the ones here so bullish on China, don't just say it, do it). Will America end up like Roman empire? Probably (like any other empires in history), but don't think you will see it in our lifetime or our children's lifetime. Even if usd collapse (this would also mean other currencies will burn to the ground), people in the US would still be fine because the country has abundance of natural resources, huge land to grow food, and the most advanced technologies. UK has lost world power post ww2, people there are still fine, right? kikkomenn 发表于 2022-08-14 17:47
1) Homeownership rates in the U.S. at 65.3% Today China is a country of homeowners with more than 90% of households owning homes (87% in urban and 96% in rural China) (Clark, Huang, & Yi, 2019). At the same time, more than 20% Chinese households own multiple homes, “The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society” 还真有脸说这话？搞笑么？ 2) QE 在大萧条时期就用过了，当然是part of the economic text books 没学过经济？
Namama 发表于 2022-08-14 17:48
1) this is why when the bust comes, chinese will be slaughtered 2) have you lived in the states? 3) if that's the case, then the great depression would be called the "previous great recession" lol
China's economic boom is not a miracle. It's a managed wealth transfer, just like the US boom pre/during/post ww2. I didn't say China will be Aftrica, but comparing China and the US, I would raise my family here in the states, while China can continue to be the #1 or #2 economy/GDP, whatever your economics degree name it :D
1) this is why when the bust comes, chinese will be slaughtered 2) have you lived in the states? 3) if that's the case, then the great depression would be called the "previous great recession" lol
kikkomenn 发表于 2022-08-14 19:02
1) 正是因为住在美国，所以深知美国贫富差距之严重。 大多数美国中下产根本没有啥financial assets，live pay check by pay check, 房屋自有率也不高。 所以你那句“The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society”“ 才格外的可笑 2）30年代大萧条时期，联储会也用过QE这些操作，这也是经济学常识 “The size of the Fed's intervention in 1932—bond purchases equal to about two percent of GDP, or $16 billion in today's dollars—was roughly proportionate (in terms of GDP) to the purchases of long-term Treasury securities in the first QE program, between November 2008 and March 2009.”
China's economic boom is not a miracle. It's a managed wealth transfer, just like the US boom pre/during/post ww2. I didn't say China will be Aftrica, but comparing China and the US, I would raise my family here in the states, while China can continue to be the #1 or #2 economy/GDP, whatever your economics degree name it :D kikkomenn 发表于 2022-08-14 19:10
1) 正是因为住在美国，所以深知美国贫富差距之严重。 大多数美国中下产根本没有啥financial assets，live pay check by pay check, 房屋自有率也不高。 所以你那句“The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society”“ 才格外的可笑 2）30年代大萧条时期，联储会也用过QE这些操作，这也是经济学常识 “The size of the Fed's intervention in 1932—bond purchases equal to about two percent of GDP, or $16 billion in today's dollars—was roughly proportionate (in terms of GDP) to the purchases of long-term Treasury securities in the first QE program, between November 2008 and March 2009.” Namama 发表于 2022-08-14 19:56
The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society. And non of the real estate companies are/were the largest companies in the US.
In contrast to China, real estate companies were consistently part of the largest companies in the country until recently they all collapsed due to their usd debts. While chinese citizen built wealth by riding the real estate boom, but the majority of the real estate wealth went to the real estate moguls and their political partners. The chinese citizens are now left holding the real estate bust bag.
You kept on saying you know economics, but sometimes common sense is more important for one to think critically than what's been taught in the books of economics. QE was not part of any economics books before it was implemented. Economics are the symptoms that you can see from the outside, to diagnose the root cause, you need to dig deeper than that.
也就90欧。 看看Walmart多少钱一条
为了踩中国，越南猴子都能跪舔，你们这种自恨党真心不服不行
观点是观点，很多人做起来，就是买便宜货，甚至于连性价比都不看。不然早期中国产品质量挺差的时候，东西也卖不掉，都没机会提高到现在这样。
lol, you hit the nail on the head, the top quality of manufacturing is reserved for companies like Apple. Everyday consumer products are still from low quality manufacturing.
那是你自己喜欢买便宜货 不能推己及人。 刚来美国的新移民可以理解，真正成家立业了，便宜货和正牌货还是有巨大差别的。即便从经济角度看也是如此。
You can either bet on America or move to another country (like the ones here so bullish on China, don't just say it, do it). Will America end up like Roman empire? Probably (like any other empires in history), but don't think you will see it in our lifetime or our children's lifetime.
Even if usd collapse (this would also mean other currencies will burn to the ground), people in the US would still be fine because the country has abundance of natural resources, huge land to grow food, and the most advanced technologies. UK has lost world power post ww2, people there are still fine, right?
1) Homeownership rates in the U.S. at 65.3% Today China is a country of homeowners with more than 90% of households owning homes (87% in urban and 96% in rural China) (Clark, Huang, & Yi, 2019). At the same time, more than 20% Chinese households own multiple homes,
“The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society” 还真有脸说这话？搞笑么？
2) QE 在大萧条时期就用过了，当然是part of the economic text books 没学过经济？
你真有脸说这些话不搞笑么？
（看到没，你这种话谁都能说，靠话术忽悠是不行滴）
This is kinda true. Most of the people coming out of STEM are just high level intelligent workers, who can't really think critically outside of what they do, think about Detroit factory workers, Pittsiburgh steel workers in the US heydays and now the software developers. Liberal arts should be the ultimate goal if you are raising children, but they should still understand how STEM works.
先人是付出巨大代价才抱上美国这个大腿， 否则哪里能接到这一棒，成为世界工厂。 老毛为了与美国改善关系套近乎在社会主义带头大哥背后插刀。邓小平为了改革开放与卡特一起抵制莫斯科奥运会， 打大哥小弟投美帝递名状。又与里根密谋坑大哥在阿富汗部队， 这才抱上美国大腿有了中美蜜月。下面中美脱钩， 看看中国技术产业升级靠谁， 俄罗斯伊朗北韩都想都不要想， 到头来还是时刻惦记这美国。
they selling treasuries to raise usd to pay the bills. these countries already know shxt is coming, like most of the people here are keeping more cash on hand than buy buy buy...
大多数人都是经济移民，追求的是更高的生活水平 从这角度来说，中国人均才1万多美元，美国6万多美元，哪怕中国发展再快，几十年内也不可能追上
但这和承认中国在快速发展，中国国力在快速赶超，中国在全球制造业领域已经有了极强的竞争力，完全不矛盾啊 中国人口是美国4倍，哪怕人均只有美国一半，整体国力也是2倍于美国
这里很多人无非就是二极管思维，明明是为了更高生活水平移民美国 但移民后就认为美国一切制度和价值观都是好的，对的，高尚的。美国政府做的一切都是对的，而中国一切都是错的。
我也不认为美国哪怕失去全球霸权，生活水平就会真有多差。 但这和否认中国崛起有啥关系？
不能进行具体问题拆解。只能非黑即白的看问题 这根本就是缺乏基本思维能力，无法进行critical thinking的表现
又扯淡。
又搞宏大论述 没用 忽悠不了人
如果美国交给 民主党的女政治家 管理，
美国应该可以重新 发展制造业的。
共和党 太自由资本主义， 不行。
罗斯福 当年 抄袭 德国的国家资本主义，
把美国建设为 世界上最强大的国家， 制造业极其发达。
里根这个 败类， 削减美国福利， 把美国过度自由资本主义， 毁了美国的制造业。
本来也不是给你这种智商看的，能不能不要自作多情？
现在不看Sat的原因不也是因为很多URM数学不行吗？ 我看到过新闻报道，一个加州的老莫女孩, 据说成绩还不错，sat只考900分的。
化工工程物理化学专业都不容易找到工作。 我认识大把这些专业毕业的人,最后都是刷题转码转CS。
设计一个垃圾桶要$2万美金很值得骄傲？
The US economy is really depended on hispanics, they are the real pillar in this country.
因为大多数行业都不需要数学很好，数学拔尖的那波孩子搞理工科就行了。再加上移民的过来的理工科人才。足够支持美国的理工科行业和研究领域了。 我来美国二十年了，我刚来美国的时候网上就嘲笑美国人数学差的。现在二十多年过去了，美国理工科科研领域还是没有垮啊。科技创造层出不穷，还是走在世界顶端的。 美国这套教育和移民体系已经很成熟了。
1) this is why when the bust comes, chinese will be slaughtered 2) have you lived in the states? 3) if that's the case, then the great depression would be called the "previous great recession" lol
都说美国数理化不好， 美国理工科强校本科top10比国内理工强校本科top10。 比如过去50年UCB(theCal)本科毕业生比同时代清华本科毕业生， 论成就UCB远远胜出。 如果比博士出来的成就， 那清华可就难堪了。真正要加强改革数理化教育是国内。
要搞清楚， 先进领域里领军人物大多数是美国本土培养的。 今后国内招海归越来越困难，如何提高本土培养的高级人才是当务之急， 否则永远会被人家卡脖子。
中国论文的 数量第一啊。
反正 有数量就行了。
现在哪个国家不是CS最热门？刷题转码的也不是美国一个国家。
China's economic boom is not a miracle. It's a managed wealth transfer, just like the US boom pre/during/post ww2.
I didn't say China will be Aftrica, but comparing China and the US, I would raise my family here in the states, while China can continue to be the #1 or #2 economy/GDP, whatever your economics degree name it :D
中国电影总票房恰恰超过了美国，
好莱坞大片在中国收入少，因为基本不让进。
你的比较对象莫名其妙。
比市场购买力，从来都是看全票房，谁看你好莱坞在中国的票房
美国国内在疯狂反移民 尤其以川粉为代表
好像中国80－90年代不是动不动就停电一样。
印度是全球第三大发电国和用电国，且增长速度极快，今年为例，增速超过中国几个身位
你这种智商忽悠不了人 不要自作多情
谁告诉你印度还那样的？ 印度在全球排位从14到第五，可以说飞速发展， 只不过被中国的光芒掩盖了
没用。印度如果强大了，GDP达中国二分之一，就是全世界的反美先锋。 更不要说，印度人无法达到中国的996模式。
你很骄傲吗？
不要转进
你应该继续用你们的话术忽悠你的两万美元一个垃圾桶的故事
Face it. 同样的质量，基本上，共产肯定是最便宜的。 用脚趾头算都知道，你，要多交智商税，多交民主税。 你不多付点，怎么体现民主能win呢？
回流墨西哥了。你去美墨边境看看，日新月异，一堆大陆人台湾人韩国人还有美国人在那边买地盖厂房仓库。墨西哥年轻人上班打卡跟90年代深圳厂弟厂妹一样勤劳
移民抢的都是高端工作，墨西哥非移才抢低端工作。所以，美国正经要反的，一定是中国人这些技术移民，科技移民。
看来好主意人人看的到
开厂很可能。 莫莫勤劳上班，你确定？一星期上40小时？就8到5就好了。 我怎么不太信。
老川要建墙。 你先理清楚，到底要反那些人？ 反科技移民，是反中，还是反所有人？
莫莫很能干。给别人干活就需要有人监管。没人管，就不好好干，就会偷懒，就会偷工减料。
看忽悠有意思吗？你看TRUMP弄了半天，结果到底反了哪些人？哪些人那几年来不成美国？
普通美国人就是要反以中国为代表的，科技移民。非移是受全社会欢迎的，是永远不会禁的，过几年非移太少了就要搞大赦，给后来的一些希望，让他们继续来。。。。。
1) 正是因为住在美国，所以深知美国贫富差距之严重。 大多数美国中下产根本没有啥financial assets，live pay check by pay check, 房屋自有率也不高。
所以你那句“The wealth generated from real estate/construction in the US is distributed throughout all levels of society”“ 才格外的可笑
2）30年代大萧条时期，联储会也用过QE这些操作，这也是经济学常识 “The size of the Fed's intervention in 1932—bond purchases equal to about two percent of GDP, or $16 billion in today's dollars—was roughly proportionate (in terms of GDP) to the purchases of long-term Treasury securities in the first QE program, between November 2008 and March 2009.”
这个体现了一大票美国人民的呼声，不以你我意志为转移。 我觉得，还是要把这票美国人的知识体系和employability，提升上去。 否则总是一个conflict。
我想不通的是： 为啥大家都要这么赶？现在的社会啥都过剩，大家都10倍的slow down 不就好了。
你这里表达的，无非是你认为人均收入和人均生活水平，美国会继续长期领先中国。这点我也同意。
但这和中国经济发展速度和成绩，中国国力是否赶超，中国在全球制造业中的地位有啥关系？ 你在本帖发言的目的是？ 你上面自己说要common sense，要critical thinking，你表现了哪点？
你是不是以为把两个句子用“因为…所以…”连起来就变成真的了？ 而且有因果关系了？ 你住在中国，知道中国没有贫富差距吗？
中国当然有贫富差距，但中国贫富差距很大程度是农村/城市，是沿海/内陆的地区差异，是工业化本身造成的。
一个农民，进入城市进入工厂，生产力和收入立马翻了n倍，和依然从事务农的人比，自然就造成了极大贫富差距。
这和美国的贫富差距完全不是一个概念。 美国bottom 50%人口过去40年，剔除通货膨胀后，实际收入0增长！ 这事极其可怕的事情，也是川普民粹主义能有如此大支持的主要原因之一 更不要说中国为了共同富裕，为了精准扶贫做的那些工作了。 那些政策放美国是根本不可能的事
我觉得将来大趋势就是分散投资了。对各国都是如此。新冠期间美国口罩断货。俄乌战争期间欧洲天然气被掐脖子。我觉得意识形态不一样的国家之间会互相防备了。 以后欧美投资低端制造业的趋势将会是分散投资，不会把投资全部放在某一个国家。我猜测东南亚，印度，南美和东欧都会占一些比例。 而欧洲的能源，将来不管俄乌战争以什么样的形式结束。他们都不会把能源完全依赖俄罗斯了。基本上也会是分散进口能源渠道。
你刚才说你知道的这些可怕的事实 都是因为你住在美国才深知的，我就搞不懂了，这跟住在美国有什么关系吗？ 我好多四大牛人不住在美国，他们知道的关于美国可怕的事情比住在美国的我多多了
花16万五买爱马仕自行车的和月入一千的贫富差距 是农民工进城务工的锅？
你这逻辑挺新奇。外流东南亚反而导致更加依赖中国经济？！
你才扯蛋。德国产热水袋用多少年都不坏，made in China，一年之后半夜漏水
丧事喜办没听说吗
花同样多的钱买的吗？made in china每一挡都有
你可以看看越南的例子
越南对外出口增长和从中国进口的增长是同步的
结果就是越南成为珠三角庞大产业链的外溢，成为以中国为中心的产业链上的一环。这自然让其更加依赖中国经济。
溢着溢着越溢越多就溢走了 世界各地溢了好多次了 也 不差再溢一次 不明白吗
印度的GDP相当于中国05年左右的水平，但是印度的基础建设，电力，公路，水力等供应，差不多就是中国九十年代的水平。
这说明印度发展滞后，贫富差距已经很大。
而且印度还没有全国统一的大市场，州邦各自为政，国内党派林立，还有毛派等反政府武装，大号的民国吧，这些乱七八糟的事情不解决，没有多高的发展上限。
还有一个大问题，中国在印度这个阶段的时候，GDP年增率是两位数，所以印度追上中国，甚至超过中国，跟印度关系不大，需要中国崩溃才行。
逻辑是可以通的。 在一般消费品上，中国强大的产能可以提供足量且便宜的原材料，东南亚国家，除了印尼，大部分国家体量都太小了，而印尼又是个破碎的岛国，规模化生产困难度会比较高。
如果不考虑政治干涉，从纯经济考虑，从中国进大量的原材料，然后在本国加工是性价比最高的。
越南出口暴增与从中国进口同期暴增也说明了这个问题。
如果这种情况持续下去，东南亚等国就会彻底成为中国工业的下游，中国断了上游的水，他们就会死，所以他们就会从经济和政治上更和中国绑定。
嗯……有点类似于美国通过技术转移，控制全球高科技生产，只要用了美国技术，美国不同意你用了，你就完了。
其实本质上都是一种垄断造成的产业优势，只不过前者是市场垄断，后者是技术垄断。
那以前买五条以后就买一条。版上不是流行少而精吗
正是因为这样，当年美国才把制造业甩出去的啊，你当欧美资本家傻吗？跟你竞争制造业？这种制造业就是找一帮人给这帮跨国资本干活的，核心技术你看他们是不是也会扔出去？赚大头的永远是资本家，然后政商勾结，民主党再拿这些钱中一点小利去发福利
高端也一样吧， 996在中国以外的地方行不通， 就是能吃苦， 要钱不要命， 不过这种风气迟早有结束的一天， 日本人以前多拼命， 现在统统躺平。
就算要少而精，大部分消费者也会选择只花1/5的钱，把省下的4/5干点别的
反过来说，国内很卷啊，我们大家都活得很累。
你想得太简单了
再补充一点， 中国，当然还有美国，是全球最大消费市场和进口国 所以中美是在产业链上游，和最下游消费市场，两端同时发挥控制力。
二战后美国就是靠这个来影响他国经济，只不过到后来中国体量实在太大了，美国控制不了。 但东南亚那些国家，没有任何一个在经济体量上能接近中国。 那么这么发展下去，自然是被整合入以中国为核心的全球产业链，和中国越来越深度绑定
可惜你现在还是用某国的文字在这个版上指点江山，激昂文字。
给人感慨最深的是阿迪和耐克的鞋子质量越来越差。一看产地 越南 印尼.
哎呦，这不是传说中的小费要给30%得餐馆端盘子的哥们吗，洗完碗得闲来喷人了
共產黨最厲害的不是收拾有錢人
是連窮人一起收拾
::: 2022/08/15 寰宇安全 陸銀行「提款難」 資金流現危機
記者吳典叡／綜合報導 中國大陸多地銀行在7月中旬，陸續出現「提款難」問題，浪潮已蔓延至深圳。分析指出，此項金融困境與銀行資金流危機有關，金融機構以防詐騙名義，直接凍結儲戶帳戶，不提供領款，實際是為爭取內部資金周轉時間。此舉已衍生信心危機，民眾對中國大陸銀行逐漸失去信心。 除了「中國銀行」，「建設銀行、工商銀行、郵儲銀行」等也有類似情況，部分支行大門外，要求解凍的儲戶大排長龍。自7月中旬迄今，北京、山東、海南等省市陸續有多家銀行儲戶的帳戶突然被「凍結」，愈來愈多人對銀行失去信心，怒斥「完全無視個人權益，並配合官方用各種理由來刁難和限制」。 專家分析，對中國大陸房地產業放款的金融機構，資金流出現危機，中共需在「20大」召開前，把危機至少控制在房地產領域，於是把歪腦筋動到銀行儲蓄存款，竟冒著信心危機的巨大風險，推出此「擦邊球」做法，後續各項經濟下滑的症狀，恐將逐一浮現。
國際太空站
４１９噸
天宮太空站 現在 ４５．７噸 完成後 １００噸 低空軌道
四個頂一個啊
泡沫破了
滿國爛尾．．．．．
你认错人了 我从来没说小费要给30% 我的观点是小费要按照老板建议的比例给 比如说在中国一般老板建议0%就给0% 在美国老板建议0% 15% 20% 100%都有可能 按照老板建议给 肯定不会错
華人 通常是給 １０％
非華人通常是給 １５％
約定俗成
全世界任何地方任何人种按照老板建议给就是约定俗成
通常老闆不在．．．．
有道理，中国希望领导亚洲，东南亚希望从中国那里接点活，美国希望实际的活都是东南亚做的，这样对国内政治正确有交代。这实在是三方满意的事情啊。
馽國區的上游 是台灣跟日本
東南亞 把上游接過去就行了
馽國產業鏈 是可以被分離開的
畢竟
絕大多數外國人不是很習慣 被 肛拭啊
这算个屁啊，这是因为进口了太多的中国机器设备，所以没什么顺差。
实际上顺差根本无所谓的事，关键是进出口总额，尤其是出口总额
剩上一直覺得很奇怪
順差增千億 外匯存底增三百億
七百億 誰搬走了？
菸茂青去查鹽稅 也是這比例啊 三成上繳 七成入袋
嘉靖就清算了嚴黨
中國國家外匯管理局昨(7)日發布，截至今(2022)年7月底，中國外匯儲備規模為3兆1,041億美元，較6月底上升328億美元(6月為下降565億美元)
Standing order
以东南亚国家的脾气，收点钱盖个made in 他们家的章也不是不可能
然后被抓了 然后章也被没收了 lol
有个疑问，最近总看到有人说中国内部货币放水，却又有人说取不出钱，那中国社会上的货币总量到底是多了还是少了呢？
那么多货谁有功夫来查啊。最终就是美国人为了政治正确多付了盖章的钱。中国人和东南亚人都挣到了。
趙家人多了 非趙家人少了