奇怪了,CDC自己的解读可没楼主这么乐观。 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html Nationally, since mid-July, there has been an overall decreasing trend in the percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and a decreasing or stable (change of ≤0.1%) trend in the percentage of visits for ILI and CLI; however, there has been some regional variation. Using combined data from the three laboratory types, the national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 with a molecular assay decreased from 5.8% during week 35 to 5.2% during week 36. Regionally, the percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased slightly in Regions 1 (New England) and 3 (Mid-Atlantic) and decreased or remained stable in the remaining seven regions. The highest percentages of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were seen in Regions 4 (South East, 8.1%), 6 (South Central, 9.3%), and 7 (Central, 9.5%), but the percentage is decreasing in all three regions. The percentage of outpatient or ED visits to ILINet providers for ILI is below baseline nationally and in nine of the 10 regions of the country. Region 7 (Central) reported ILI above the region-specific baseline. This increase is due to visits for ILI associated with COVID-19 activity in Iowa, which resulted in Iowa experiencing “very high” ILI activity. Compared with week 35, the percentage of visits for ILI during week 36 decreased nationally and decreased or was stable (change of ≤0.1%) in all 10 regions. The percentage of visits to EDs for CLI decreased nationally for the eighth consecutive week and, compared with the previous week, decreased in all 10 HHS regions. The percentage of visits to EDs for ILI was stable (change of ≤0.1%) nationally and decreasing or stable in all 10 regions. The overall cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate was 166.9 per 100,000; rates were highest in people 65 years of age and older (451.2 per 100,000) followed by people 50–64 years (249.8 per 100,000). Although SARS-CoV-2 viruses have been circulating in the U.S. for slightly longer than a typical influenza season, the cumulative hospitalization rate for COVID-19 among adults 65 years and older is now higher than the end-of-season influenza hospitalization rates for recent influenza seasons, including the high severity 2017–2018 season. Since early in the pandemic, cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates for younger adult age groups (18-49 year olds and 50-64 year olds) have been higher than recent end-of-season hospitalization rates for influenza. From the week ending August 1 (week 31) to the week ending August 29 (week 35), weekly hospitalization rates declined for all adult age groups. However, over this same time period, weekly rates initially remained constant for children in the 5–17 year age group and then increased during the week ending August 29 (week 35). Data for the most recent weeks may change as additional admissions occurring during those weeks are reported. Hispanic or Latino persons and Non-Hispanic Black persons had age-adjusted hospitalization rates approximately 4.7 times that of non-Hispanic White persons. The rate for non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons was approximately 4.6 times the rate among non-Hispanic White persons. Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 (PIC) for week 36 was 6.3%, lower than the percentage during week 35 (9.5%), but above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely increase as more death certificates are processed. All surveillance systems aim to provide the most complete data available. Estimates from previous weeks are subject to change as data are updated with the most complete data available.
目前新冠在美国的三大重要危害指标包括:死亡比例,住院人数比例和相关急诊人数比例都呈现了全面快速下降的趋势。
这种趋势也符合典型的冠状病毒由爆发,传播到弱化的典型的衰减震荡波图形。
图一,目前已是2020第38周,全国死亡比例已经接近疫情的分水岭,虽然可能还有后续的震荡波,但达到疫情分水岭的趋势从而疫情结束得趋势相当明显。
图二,新冠相关住院人数已全面下降,现在住院比例已经回到3月中旬的水平,而且是在累积了近500倍的病例情况下,显示新冠传染力增强,致病性减弱的规律。特别是65岁以上人群住院比例下降最显著。
图三, 新冠相关急诊人数比例,这又是一个和新冠严重性密切相关的数据。再次表明因为新冠急诊病人正在大幅度减少,已经回到2019年年底无疫情的水平。而这个指标往往是病毒弱化的先驱性指标。
🔥 最新回帖
他是铁杆大统领粉,立场早就表明了,我就是觉得他是不是一直在试图用“科学”来证实大统领的“预言”,按他的说法,现在中国疫情严重到快灭国了,美国疫情丝毫不严重,觉得严重的都是“不懂科学”,“抑郁症”,“没常识”,“像我不戴口罩,有同事中招了我都没事”等等等等, 并且美国疫情很快就结束了,非常“乐观”。
我选择hope for the best, prepare for the worst, keep calm and carry on
这还用说,当然是政治贴,楼主你敢站出来说你不是挺川人士吗?只有带着自己的目的的人才会一而再再二三的发这种带有强烈指向的贴。
🛋️ 沙发板凳
这三个数据图形都是明显的震荡衰减波形,第二波峰大约是第一波峰的50%。
而这就是我一再强调的冠状病毒传染性增强,致病性减弱的重要指标和基本特性。
这是不以任何人包括所谓科学权威或者政治权威的意志为转移的自然规律!
这是不同的数据种类,还有不同的来源。CDC就算都黑了,也不能一手遮天。不同的来源和种类如果都指向一个方向,那这个方向大体上是不会错的。
2018年流感大爆发,美国死亡了6万人,是近年流感最严重的一次。
张文宏说啥了
冠状病毒不是流感病毒,流感病毒是强弱交替变异,冠状病毒不是季节性病毒,其变异弱化是单向性的。
肯定不行,11/3不能出门太危险了
一个意思,张是中国少数敢说真话的医生。
re, 大选才是最有效的办法,应该提前一个月,得少多少感染。西岸都快烤糊了,不知道大选能不能唤来及时雨。
张文宏,男,1969年出生 [1] ,浙江瑞安人 [2] ,复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任、党支部书记 [3] 、复旦大学上海医学院内科学系主任、上海市新冠肺炎医疗救治专家组组长、 [4] 主任医师、博士生导师、复旦大学生物医学研究员 [5] 。
不过事到如今,根据楼主半年多来的track record, 要是再相信楼主的话,那就不是乐观,而是傻了~~
相信不相信我都无所谓,这是事实和科学。
感染人数还会持续上升,致病人数还会持续下降,这是客观规律。
正好傻乐😂😂
随便说吧,担心疫情结束也没用,这是客观规律。
只要你检测,病例清零不可能,而且会越来越多,但是致病性会越来越低,直至临床无害。
这是两个概念,不要混淆。
比如你的以前曾经让我点过赞的帖子:
我觉得人在北美不需要过分担心新冠病毒影响,会比其它地方好
盖洛普民调:77%的人对美国防备新冠病毒有信心
所谓美国医院内部会议根本是故意造谣,美国的医疗体系也不是如此运作!
莫名其妙: 现在应该根本不存在CDC让不让测的问题 !
新冠危机可能很快会解除,双药联用显奇效
WHO世卫组织再次重申普通人不用戴口罩
世卫组织最新科学简报:对中国75465病例分析中没有发现关于空气传播的报告
都是3月份的帖子,那时候还真是怎么也没想到会变成今天这个局面。
谢谢。我的医生朋友说的是,厉害的病毒传不开,因为病人都被干掉了,或是在医院里。所以,传得广的就是没那么厉害的,但是传得快的那些病毒。听起来有道理。
不相信谁,但要相信科学
Ditto...说的好
Health Official Out To Manipulate CDC Reports Has Deep Russian Ties Michael Caputo's efforts to change CDC reports to make Trump look good could be even more complicated.
lz你也不要混淆视听,你说的和你的主题也是俩概念,关键是用多长时间。
今天都300+啦,还不恐慌,非得变成美国才行啊?
你又说真话了
而且理论上这些人更大可能和Trump supporters社交。。。想想看后果。
可以看看昨天推特上面 住在附近的老人和怕病毒的人都在大骂 估计本来这些人因为BLM游行传播是对民主党减分的 但是那是几个月前的事情 现在马上要开始投票了给他们来个这种事情。。。这不是硬生生把人逼反么。。。
再次说一下,这个尾声不是指确诊人数,确诊人数还会继续增多,而死亡比例还会继续下降,最终下降到普通感冒的水平,没有人会去统计多少得了感冒。
死亡看你怎么统计,同样流感美国每年可以统计到几万人,而中国才几百。呼吸道疾病大部分死亡是间接死亡和超额死亡,看你统计不统计,如何去统计。
有没有excessive death的研究出来啊?我觉得这个很有用。还有一个是医院里的重症数和ER数,住院数目。这些都应该有的吧,而且应该是常年报备的,对吧?
美国一直在根据excessive death数据进行调整死亡数据,大部分州已经同步或者非常接近。而住院人数比例和死亡比例下降已经非常好的显示了病毒的弱化,同时传染力增强。
你怎么知道楼主不是trump团队的。以前不就是有个ID公开就是给trump站台嘛。这本身没问题,但是装模作样的表示中立,就是又贱又烂了。
这个帖子和trump有什么关系?你们对政治真是神经过敏了。 这是我一贯的观点,也是一个简单的科学道理。
同样,我能说你们是中国ID来故意制造恐慌的吗?
确实很多中国ID故意对于证据视而不见,只会用恶毒的言辞来诅咒
这是今天的图表,若死亡的数字这么少,那我觉得病毒的传播力虽仍在,但致人死命的威力真的一直减弱,到最后可能与染了感冒没太大分别。
😂😂
感觉这里很多 ID 极其无聊.
按照 这些 ID 的变态思维,
汽车, 火车和飞机 都应该禁止!
哈哈哈
建议这些 ID 别坐汽车, 也别坐火车.
每天 死于汽车, 死于各种谋杀的人 比 这个病毒 不知道 多 无数倍去了.
中国那型和肆虐欧洲的已经发生了变异,这个网上都查得到。
不说别的,武汉当时死了多少年轻人,包括李文亮医生,现在这批50岁以下死亡的病例都罕见,年轻人连住院的病例都属罕见
中国那种变态的体制还好意思出来说?
德国媒体成天批中国.
哈哈哈
早就结束了.
柏林这里人山人海, 外面全世界各地的游客们,
周末一到, 各种各样的游行示威, 层出不穷的各种游行示威.
这都热闹整个夏天了.
结果呢? 柏林死了 几个人?!!!!!!
也就中国成天宣传些 变态的新闻!!
看看中国媒体 敢提 柏林吗??
无所谓了!!
德国这里大妈大叔们一样出来!!
大街小巷,全是人, 人 , 人.
一天死不了几个人的东西.
有啥好怕的??
张文宏不是上海人
佩服西欧北欧国家,从证据出发的理性决策
2020-02-11注册,你是专门跟新冠并存的吗?
这个太乐观了。11月3日之前不要超过10万 new daily cases就不错了。
哪年?
看看清楚Lz说的是病毒减弱,传染性增强,不会清零反而得的人更多,但是得了死不了。
你要证明人家是笑话你得有数据和事实,不是说一句人是笑话,又说不出哪里是笑话,为什么是笑话,那你岂不是更大的笑话。 声明哈,我不是认为cdc who可靠,我是单纯的鄙视这周随便下结论又没有论据的方式。 楼主的结论对不对放一边,起码人家有论据,这里反驳的人,都是观点,没有一个有论据有论证的。 不知道里面有多少没培训过的五毛七毛,就是来搅混水的
Nationally, since mid-July, there has been an overall decreasing trend in the percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and a decreasing or stable (change of ≤0.1%) trend in the percentage of visits for ILI and CLI; however, there has been some regional variation. Using combined data from the three laboratory types, the national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 with a molecular assay decreased from 5.8% during week 35 to 5.2% during week 36. Regionally, the percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased slightly in Regions 1 (New England) and 3 (Mid-Atlantic) and decreased or remained stable in the remaining seven regions. The highest percentages of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were seen in Regions 4 (South East, 8.1%), 6 (South Central, 9.3%), and 7 (Central, 9.5%), but the percentage is decreasing in all three regions. The percentage of outpatient or ED visits to ILINet providers for ILI is below baseline nationally and in nine of the 10 regions of the country. Region 7 (Central) reported ILI above the region-specific baseline. This increase is due to visits for ILI associated with COVID-19 activity in Iowa, which resulted in Iowa experiencing “very high” ILI activity. Compared with week 35, the percentage of visits for ILI during week 36 decreased nationally and decreased or was stable (change of ≤0.1%) in all 10 regions. The percentage of visits to EDs for CLI decreased nationally for the eighth consecutive week and, compared with the previous week, decreased in all 10 HHS regions. The percentage of visits to EDs for ILI was stable (change of ≤0.1%) nationally and decreasing or stable in all 10 regions. The overall cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate was 166.9 per 100,000; rates were highest in people 65 years of age and older (451.2 per 100,000) followed by people 50–64 years (249.8 per 100,000). Although SARS-CoV-2 viruses have been circulating in the U.S. for slightly longer than a typical influenza season, the cumulative hospitalization rate for COVID-19 among adults 65 years and older is now higher than the end-of-season influenza hospitalization rates for recent influenza seasons, including the high severity 2017–2018 season. Since early in the pandemic, cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates for younger adult age groups (18-49 year olds and 50-64 year olds) have been higher than recent end-of-season hospitalization rates for influenza. From the week ending August 1 (week 31) to the week ending August 29 (week 35), weekly hospitalization rates declined for all adult age groups. However, over this same time period, weekly rates initially remained constant for children in the 5–17 year age group and then increased during the week ending August 29 (week 35). Data for the most recent weeks may change as additional admissions occurring during those weeks are reported. Hispanic or Latino persons and Non-Hispanic Black persons had age-adjusted hospitalization rates approximately 4.7 times that of non-Hispanic White persons. The rate for non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons was approximately 4.6 times the rate among non-Hispanic White persons. Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 (PIC) for week 36 was 6.3%, lower than the percentage during week 35 (9.5%), but above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely increase as more death certificates are processed. All surveillance systems aim to provide the most complete data available. Estimates from previous weeks are subject to change as data are updated with the most complete data available.