CDC比较每1000人感染数，住院数和死亡数。结论Omicron比Delta住院下降78至27，死亡下降13到9。那岂不是说Omicron住院者死亡率远高于Delta住院者（9/27 vs 13/78)，高出一倍。这明显不合常理，甚为荒谬。我们都知道Omicron住院病人通常较轻，很少有上呼吸机的。能推导出如此结论，明显研究方法有问题。很难相信CDC这样的文章也能发表。
原文：
The ratio of peak ED visits to cases (event-to-case ratios) (87 per 1,000 cases), hospital admissions (27 per 1,000 cases), and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020–21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods.
Health experts say that Omicron generally causes milder symptom than previous variants. But the death count is high because Omicron spreads quickly and is infecting a large number of people.
这是Fuz原帖
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/health/1022692.html
CDC比较每1000人感染数，住院数和死亡数。结论Omicron比Delta住院下降78至27，死亡下降13到9。那岂不是说Omicron住院者死亡率远高于Delta住院者（9/27 vs 13/78)，高出一倍。这明显不合常理，甚为荒谬。我们都知道Omicron住院病人通常较轻，很少有上呼吸机的。能推导出如此结论，明显研究方法有问题。很难相信CDC这样的文章也能发表。
原文：
The ratio of peak ED visits to cases (event-to-case ratios) (87 per 1,000 cases), hospital admissions (27 per 1,000 cases), and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020–21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm7104e4_w
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm7104e4_w
重点在这张图
甚至导致荒谬的结论。
Health experts say that Omicron generally causes milder symptom than previous variants. But the death count is high because Omicron spreads quickly and is infecting a large number of people.
不合理的。
你质疑这方法，就是否定文章的方法。没问题呀，我也是质疑文章的研究方法不合理呀。如果你同意文章中住院率和死亡率的计算，那么“住院者的死亡率”该怎么计算呢？文章中住院率和死亡率不也是你所谓的“假设了病株这个单变量”而得出的吗？
如果你认为这样的比较在从统计的角度站不住脚。 那么该文章采取的同样方法得出“Omicron 的死亡率为 9/1000，Delta 的死亡率为 13/1000”的计算也在统计的角度站不住脚。我只是指出它的荒谬而已。你没法卫护一个而否定另一个。因为我采用它同样的方法。
劳驾，你给我讲讲“住院者死亡率”该怎样计算？
CDC Omicron 病死率 9/1000是说每1000 Omicron患者有9位病死,决不是指每1000居民就有9位Omicron病死。三年 新冠病疫, 世界上最严重的秘鲁有每百万居民新冠病死6112, 这等于每1000居民新冠病死6人。如果二个月来,每 1000美国居民就有9位Omicron病死, 这严重得不可想像了。