With the Omicron variant accounting for 99.9% of all COVID-19 cases in the United States, it’s proving even deadlier than the Delta variant.
This week the nation recorded a seven-day average of 2,200 daily coronavirus-related deaths, higher than the daily death count recorded two months ago during the Delta variant surge, The Wall Street Journal reported.
That’s also the highest number of deaths since February 2021, when the U.S. was coming out of a winter wave of cases, and the vaccination drive was only a few months old, The Wall Street Journal said. ………、
A CDC study released on Tuesday showed nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge, compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter’s deadly surge.
The current seven-day average of cases is 692,400 per day, a 6% slight dip from the previous week, while deaths went up 21% from the previous week, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, said Wednesday at a White House news briefing.
The maximum 7-day moving averages of the daily number of COVID-19 cases, ED visits, hospital admissions, and deaths during the Omicron period were compared with the peak 7-day moving averages for the winter 2020–21 and Delta periods. The maximum percentages of inpatient and ICU bed use overall and by COVID-19 patients were compared between periods. For each period analyzed, ratios of ED visits, hospital admissions, and deaths per 1,000 COVID-19 cases were calculated.
CDC比较每1000人感染数，住院数和死亡数。结论Omicron比Delta住院下降78至27，死亡下降13到9。那岂不是说Omicron住院者死亡率远高于Delta住院者（9/27 vs 13/78)，高出一倍。这明显不合常理，甚为荒谬。我们都知道Omicron住院病人通常较轻，很少有上呼吸机的。能推导出如此结论，明显研究方法有问题。很难相信CDC这样的文章也能发表。
原文：
The ratio of peak ED visits to cases (event-to-case ratios) (87 per 1,000 cases), hospital admissions (27 per 1,000 cases), and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020–21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220127/deaths-due-to-omicron-higher-than-from-delta
With the Omicron variant accounting for 99.9% of all COVID-19 cases in the United States, it’s proving even deadlier than the Delta variant.
This week the nation recorded a seven-day average of 2,200 daily coronavirus-related deaths, higher than the daily death count recorded two months ago during the Delta variant surge, The Wall Street Journal reported.
That’s also the highest number of deaths since February 2021, when the U.S. was coming out of a winter wave of cases, and the vaccination drive was only a few months old, The Wall Street Journal said.
………、
A CDC study released on Tuesday showed nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge, compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter’s deadly surge.
The current seven-day average of cases is 692,400 per day, a 6% slight dip from the previous week, while deaths went up 21% from the previous week, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, said Wednesday at a White House news briefing.
………
1）70%的人希望宣布疫情结束回归正常。
2）大多数人反对强制疫苗。
3）大多数人支持强制室内戴口罩。
没打加强针的赶紧打。
抗体好像有不同的吧？
新年快乐！
Ontario的Omicron死亡率是Delta的20%不到。Ontario的的研究是追踪cohort并按profile分组对比，似乎更可信。
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-epi-enhanced-estimates-omicron-severity-study.pdf?sc_lang=en
CDC研究都是用最大7天的确诊案例，住院和死亡。但Omicron比Delta病程短，所以都用最大7天的住院和死亡数量与base（确诊病例）比，有可能Omicron被纳入的死亡和住院病人比base多。
原文：
The maximum 7-day moving averages of the daily number of COVID-19 cases, ED visits, hospital admissions, and deaths during the Omicron period were compared with the peak 7-day moving averages for the winter 2020–21 and Delta periods. The maximum percentages of inpatient and ICU bed use overall and by COVID-19 patients were compared between periods. For each period analyzed, ratios of ED visits, hospital admissions, and deaths per 1,000 COVID-19 cases were calculated.
新疫苗出现的定式：
- 万众期盼，媒体报道，大肆报道
- 疫苗上市，开打，大批民众注射疫苗
- 发现“副作用”，媒体报道+炒作，民众奔走相告
- 恐慌
- 官方介入，开始调查，
- 发现需要更多的信息，叫停疫苗，或针对某一类人群叫停
- 有了更多信息和更多的发现，原来不过SoSo，
- 重新开放疫苗，补充一些注意事项
- 继续， move on
其实出现这种“副作用”的现象很正常。三期临床万把人，疫苗正式开打至少有几百万人，很可能万把人没有发现的偶然现象，放大几百倍几千倍就看到了，这种小概率事件的关联性，有的是因果，有的是巧合。媒体和民众当初的期望越高，这种现象就更明显。
mRNA 疫苗是这样一个情形
牛-阿 疫苗也一样
到了J&J，还是这个 Pattern
Novavax 会改变？
CDC比较每1000人感染数，住院数和死亡数。结论Omicron比Delta住院下降78至27，死亡下降13到9。那岂不是说Omicron住院者死亡率远高于Delta住院者（9/27 vs 13/78)，高出一倍。这明显不合常理，甚为荒谬。我们都知道Omicron住院病人通常较轻，很少有上呼吸机的。能推导出如此结论，明显研究方法有问题。很难相信CDC这样的文章也能发表。
原文：
The ratio of peak ED visits to cases (event-to-case ratios) (87 per 1,000 cases), hospital admissions (27 per 1,000 cases), and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020–21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods.
12月时确定的Omicron经常只是疑似的1/10左右。
对比安省，加拿大与美国的死亡数据，8-10月间Delta的死亡人数，美国只是最近omicron才超过Delta，加拿大疫苗接种比美国晚，而且比率高。