The future open interest decreased as expected yesterday, that shows selling pressure subdued and the seller may start to cover their shorts. The sellers sold about extra 100,000 contracts during the 8 days falling session.
Yesterday was the first day that they started to cover, and the option call to put ratio continue to climb as we speak. Watch for more volatility. The most likely scenario is traders will take advantage of the pre-market low price to continue cover their shorts. 43.5 area will be major resistance.
With option call to put ratio this high I really expects the uptrend to continue. But again bears need some time and more volume to cover at low price so I'm continue to expect more volatility today, you may see more wild swings, but at the end of day, the price should be higher than the close of yesterday.
【 在 up10012003 (金钟罩，铁裤衩) 的大作中提到: 】 A surprise draw on inventory; imports lower and output from refineries a little higher Stocks fell 482,000 barrels Cushing stocks up 1.3 mln barrels Distillate down 1.5 million barrels API居然报告是draw down，如果明天EIA报告也是draw熊熊得被踩死了，这……
【 在 up10012003 (金钟罩，铁裤衩) 的大作中提到: 】 A surprise draw on inventory; imports lower and output from refineries a little higher Stocks fell 482,000 barrels Cushing stocks up 1.3 mln barrels Distillate down 1.5 million barrels API居然报告是draw down，如果明天EIA报告也是draw熊熊得被踩死了，这……
The preliminary data shows that, the future open interest decreased by about 35,000 in yesterday's trading, following Monday's over 8,000 decease. This strongly supports my theory that yesterday was an organized short covering, means the price was maintained low but big traders are covering shorts instead of opening new shorts. Market sees this numbers as I do, so there is more short covering expected ,and the price is expected to go up with bullish or neutral EIA report , unless the report shows extremely bearish data, which is not likely based on the API.
截止到17号的open interest和call to put ratio, 由于昨天option大量到期，call to put的ratio估计不太准确， 但是future open interest 减少了超过35，000强烈说明大量的short covering，这个工具对预测市场走势还是有帮助的，我会继续追踪深挖规律。
【 在 up10012003 (金钟罩，铁裤衩) 的大作中提到: 】 11/18/2015 The preliminary data shows that, the future open interest decreased by about 35,000 in yesterday's trading, following Monday's over 8,000 decease. This strongly supports my theory that yesterday was an organized short covering, means the price was maintained low but big traders are covering shorts instead of opening new shorts. Market sees this numbers as I do, so there is more short covering expected ,and the price is expected to go up with bullish or neutral EIA report , unless the report shows extremely bearish : data, which is not likely based on the API. 种了庄稼的请在耐心一些
WTI我的交易记录 10/12/15-10/16/15
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36406699.html
WTI我的交易记录 10/19/15-10/23/15
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36416203.html
WTI我的交易记录 10/26/15-10/30/15
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36425579.html
WTI我的交易记录 11/2/15-11/6/15
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36435285.html
WTI我的交易记录 11/9/15-11/13/15
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36444273.html
上个礼拜的帖说到了open interest 的问题，希望对此有兴趣的道友翻回去看一看，我会继续追踪这个话题，看能不能给交易提供指导价值。
说到这个礼拜的交易，由于巴黎恐袭，中东有进一步动荡的风险，提高了油价的风险溢价。但是我认为继续轰炸IS，或者加强轰炸IS已经是老新闻，不会给油价提供太多支撑，事实上今早油价涨了1块钱之后又跌回起点并不让我意外。
但是，我现在对油价继续暴跌低于38的担忧已经减缓了一些，
这个周末的CBNC有几篇比较有意思新闻：
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/16/how-isis-attacks-could-affect-saudi-oil-production.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/16/g20-turkey-russia-oil-idUSR4N13B00920151116
这是基于对于OPEC和Russia达成减产协议的speculaition. 这些speculation今天也许
不会立刻起作用支撑油价，但我认为油价下行的空间被减少了，这几天趋势也许会反转，反正我始终不建议在40左右做空的，没入场的再等等就好了。
The future open interest decreased as expected yesterday, that shows selling pressure subdued and the seller may start to cover their shorts. The
sellers sold about extra 100,000 contracts during the 8 days falling session.
Yesterday was the first day that they started to cover, and the option call to put ratio continue to climb as we speak. Watch for more volatility. The
most likely scenario is traders will take advantage of the pre-market low
price to continue cover their shorts. 43.5 area will be major resistance.
With option call to put ratio this high I really expects the uptrend to
continue. But again bears need some time and more volume to cover at low
price so I'm continue to expect more volatility today, you may see more wild swings, but at the end of day, the price should be higher than the close of yesterday.
little higher
Stocks fell 482,000 barrels
Cushing stocks up 1.3 mln barrels
Distillate down 1.5 million barrels
API居然报告是draw down，如果明天EIA报告也是draw熊熊得被踩死了，这……
变化和原油日消耗还小很多，也就是随便一个小的需求变动就能完全改变inventory是
增加还是减少，这种偶然性正好被MM拿来控制futures的走势。
The preliminary data shows that, the future open interest decreased by about 35,000 in yesterday's trading, following Monday's over 8,000 decease. This strongly supports my theory that yesterday was an organized short covering, means the price was maintained low but big traders are covering shorts
instead of opening new shorts. Market sees this numbers as I do, so there is more short covering expected ,and the price is expected to go up with
bullish or neutral EIA report , unless the report shows extremely bearish
data, which is not likely based on the API.
种了庄稼的请在耐心一些
to put的ratio估计不太准确， 但是future open interest 减少了超过35，000强烈说明大量的short covering，这个工具对预测市场走势还是有帮助的，我会继续追踪深挖规律。
EIA没有strong bullish，似乎买家没有像预期的那样一拥而入，似乎还在有人先放第
一枪。
这个价位俺也不敢做空。大家还是按兵不动吧。俺基本就是看着价格发呆了。
7.1的仓位
周一买的，涨到7.6没卖，以为第二天回继续涨，现在被套了。
还是太贪婪啊。
过来吧，还得要等买家入场才行，熊熊继续cover吧
Preliminary的数据显示昨天Open interest 小涨，不知道是不是把1月份的future以及之后的都算进去了，感觉应该是，这似乎显示市场继续看跌啊，call to put的ratio也第二天下降了，真是难看的市场。。。
几乎就是过去一个礼拜的range就是39.9－42.5，这么窄的的区间真是罕见
12月合同换到1月合同
http://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
这儿还是显示的12月
卖压减小了，看上去大家都惜售，不愿意割肉。感觉没看到确认的反弹的信号，瞎猜的哈，就是跟大家讨论。
这么一折腾感觉动能都没了呀，不知道市场是怎么想的，各位什么意见？
这个网站的数据分析挺不错的，值得一看。
说起来的话，根据炼油厂的开工率和汽油的季节需求，在未来的一两个礼拜之内，关于glut的故事会告一段落，这段时间一直到12月底，long Oil应该比较稳。具体的入场时间应该是EIA第一次报道库存减少的那个周三。
如果OPEC不减产，1月份到3月份short oil，或者不碰，都会比较稳，到明年3月底，大举入市long oil，16年应该妥妥挣钱，估计明年就是这个交易策略了，各位以为如何？
roll over了，这个是1月份contract的价格，对应的12月份contract价格是40.3左右。其实比较简单的方法是看USO的涨跌，就知道了。
Target Price WTI 44, 0.21->1, 376% return, let's see :)
不过涨到42.7又跌回来了，2：30pm settle在41.9,之后小散硬是没，卖到了41.6，这
是啥剧本，我又有点看不懂了，也许要等API出了才做准备，今天还是在折腾future 的expiry?
谁看懂了今天的走势，来说说，谢谢
下个礼拜的走势又难说了。