一个地方比较权威的地产中介的报告，距休士顿40mile的一个小镇7月份房市状态，6个小区价格从高到低 Community 1 “Steady” is an apt description of the results. The number of Active homes on the market remained the same at (8). Of these though, (2) are priced well above $1 million and both will take a special Buyer. So, there are really just (6). The number in Pending dropped 33% to total (8). That’s mostly due to lack of supply though. Can’t sell a lot of homes if there aren’t many for sale. There were (9) homes that Sold. That was respectable, especially since they did so with an average price of $686,167 and at $192 per square foot. This also indicates prices are holding steady.
Community 2 There was no change with the (2) Active homes on the market. The rewarding news was found in Pending Status. There are now (3) total and (2) that were on the market less than (8) days. That’s good news. What’s even more impressive? One was Listed for $2.8 million and at nearly $500 per square foot. Both figures are a record. This further establishes Fulbrook as perhaps the finest estate lot community in Houston. Community 3 Active inventory dropped slightly to (39) from a near all-time high of (42). However, just (11) were Resales. Unfortunately, most are approaching (30) days on the market and (7) have already had price reductions. There were (7) homes that Sold and the inside numbers were up slightly from June, with July witnessing an average Sales Price of $650,935 and $198 per square foot. Community 4 New Sections opened which allowed more New Homes to enter the market. And, that they did! The Active Inventory rose dramatically from (74) to end July with (107). The number in Pending Status rebounded too, from a huge drop in June, and then rose back up to end July with (57). They did so impressively, averaging just over $610,000 and at an all-time high of $206 per square foot. Community 5 There was no change in Activity. There are (5) Active homes on the market and not a change from June. Community 6 It’s always a “mystery” on how to report their results. Active inventory declined from (38) in June to end July with (26). There were also (23) homes in Pending Status, yet only (4) that Sold. The mystery is how every month there are so many in Pending, yet they never show up to be reported as Sales. Oh well, I can only report what is given…
babies were born in the US by year 2016 3,941,109 2017 3,853,472 2018 3,791,712 2019 3,745,540 2020 3,605,201 2021 3,659,289 mitts2000 发表于 2022-08-05 13:27
几个月前俺就说了，房贷到今年10月就会跌下5%。 现在8月就到了 https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4956f174-a8d1-3778-93ed-5516e7eaf0ac/mortgage-rates-drop-below-5%25.html?.tsrc=fin-srch
美国经济结构和人口年龄都支持不了高利率。今明两年利率会有波动，但总趋势还是向下。
等房子大跌的要失望了。
俺不是地产中介。
🔥 最新回帖
你这是把人家的话说反了 人家的意思是，房价低的时候 利率一定低 你非要解读成 利率低的时候房价一定低 这智商，啧啧…
请问这些人原来住树上还是街上
我确实是是凭印象猜测的， 因为我们组里60%的人都生娃了，疫情期间 day care不开，父母没法过来照顾，是不鼓励生娃，但是WFH有更多时间照顾家庭，也让很多码农觉得这是一个生娃的好时机。反正我们经理都要二胎了，我感觉他肯定是最精的。
至于整个社会出生率高了还是低了，影响不到宇宙中心几个zipcode 的学区房。。。
最近股市很好，很多人这半年跌宕起伏的， 估计想提前下车，早早套现。
你确定吗？差区的录取也要紧着diversity，没亚裔什么事儿吧
🛋️ 沙发板凳
马工把heloc贷出来20万就能支撑2年家用。你以为人家跟唐人街似的手停口停啊
码工失业了 大批的其他行业的在等着捡漏呢 很多传统行业雇不到码工 终于可以抢到人了
预期。
如果银行期望年底涨到6%，那现在就给你6%，要不然赔钱。 利率降得话，应该是银行内部经济学家认为通胀缓解，加息节奏放缓。
俺的意思就是大家盼望的调整不会来了，房子不会大跌了。 另外近期租金大涨，现在房子不涨已经不错了。
等捞底的要失望了
房子经过21年22年初的那波大涨后， 早就背离了优良资产的条件了， 租房子， 把投资面向股市反而是更好的选择。
当然如果你是刚需， 调好期望， 那贵一点买， 看在 学区需要 或者 生活质量， 无所谓了；
其他， 但是20% 的首付， 80%的贷款， 在4% 的利息下，还有其他的一些费用， 比如小装修，维护等等，负担还是比较重的。 比如 3M的房子，每月的总月供要1.5W （税后的1.5W）。 更别说， 各个大公司在开始裁员的步调了。
还是那句， 买房子， 在美联储升息+缩表的前提下， 不急。 也不要想着去捞底， 自由市场下， 没有那么多便宜可以碰到； 如果是刚需， 那就自己调好预期 和 enjoy life。
美国房子是liability。如果房价跌过了首付，供房子是净亏。
总会有人卖的。就像总有得新冠死的。虽然不是每个人。
我没任何观点哈，就单纯说： 这“房价低点的时候基本上都是利率低点”。。。去年利率2点几，还知道arm 1点几的。是不是近些年的史低？ 难道去年房价不贵？ 哪里来的房价低利率低的好事？
你确定会发生？
不确定，但是fed说了，就业强劲，经济良好。。。
不记得FED这么说过。
Jay Powell 的speech说了很多了
“房价低点基本都是利率低点”， 并不是说利率低点都是房价低点，你要注意逻辑
谁失业了？被裁员的谁没找到工作？
那当然，房子卖不住去就价格低要降息刺激，所以房价低利息低，这我也知道。大家也都知道。这个帖子是讨论利率对房价的影响，没在讨论房价对利率的影响。你这是跑题？
有人逻辑有问题，我就指出，怎么了？
这贴的原文是，30 年房贷跌下5%，等房子大跌的可能要失望了
首先我没有跑题，其次我跑题了关你什么事？我愿意说
如果Powell 说的是你说的话，大批失业，那他还可能会升息吗？ 😏
我也指出你的逻辑问题，有问题么？
哎不说了。真是一进房价贴就紧张随时有人要吵架。
对，就是宴席散了，之前都是涨价预期，现在没有了。 当小麦涨价的时候，没有小麦，当小麦降价的时候，没有人要小麦
经济下滑了，需求下降了，你房价还往上长？
我逻辑有什么问题？ 不知道你要吵什么，无非就是屁股决定脑袋，有房的就觉得房价永远涨不能跌。其实你应该看长远，房价确实会永远涨，所以房价跌才是机会好多买几套，只要你不着急用钱。
是你先说我逻辑有问题的好不好。白纸黑字的怎的不讲理。这么多人都看着呢。你难道还能硬栽到说我先说你楼逻辑有问题？服了。
我根本不打算买房。跌涨都跟我无关。哎这房价贴真恐怖，说什么都能挨砖头。
18 年太夸张了，一个周期没有那么长
别在这里教训人，说什么屁股脑袋的粗话。请文雅一些。走人。怕了你。
不好意思，没注意你就被我拍的那人。还以为是个路人。
你逻辑没问题么？我说 “房价低点基本都是利率低点”，然后你举例利率低的时候房价高。问题是房价低=>利率低 != 利率低=>房价低。你需要去学一下充要条件。你的逻辑就是有问题，这是高中知识，如果你还不能理解，我也没办法了
没事没事咱不争了。不生气，是我抬杠。 反正都希望大家有好日子过。你的逻辑确实好。我晕了 . 跟你说个sorry.
太感动了，在网上抬杠十几年，居然碰到主动认错的。 咱脾气也不好，多有冒犯，跟你说个sorry
少数人丢工作，多数人没有，那就存在供求关系 当然可能涨。
我拼命加通胀股。不就是中期选举暂时打压一下子嘛，骗谁呢。
房子买不起。两年涨了一百万，我可没那本事两年搞出税后一百万。
看来只能努力赚钱了
捞不到便宜了
笑死了
wow. 查了下确实是，4.875. 这下很多房子会哗啦一下卖掉了。
确实对利率很敏感。上次6掉到5点几，我们小区有几个放了几周的迅速pending了，也就2，3天时间。
谢谢你！
其实你这个理解是错误的。房价跌一般和经济危机相连，比如2008年后，或者2012年前后。利率（注意，是fed短期利率，不是贷款利率！！）在2008年后开始狂降，之后直到去年，其实都是低点（2016年开始短暂升过，之后又跌回来了）。所以，你完全可以说，房价低迷的那几年，fed利率不高。
贷款利率是不一样的，前两年超低，但fed短期利率是没有变化的，所以你无法拿去年房价高来问“利率低的时候房价为什么高”。首先，你要用fed短期利率去思考，不要用贷款利率。。两者有关系但不是简单的跟随关系。
Mark一下，18年后看
你牛！！
Community 1 “Steady” is an apt description of the results. The number of Active homes on the market remained the same at (8). Of these though, (2) are priced well above $1 million and both will take a special Buyer. So, there are really just (6). The number in Pending dropped 33% to total (8). That’s mostly due to lack of supply though. Can’t sell a lot of homes if there aren’t many for sale. There were (9) homes that Sold. That was respectable, especially since they did so with an average price of $686,167 and at $192 per square foot. This also indicates prices are holding steady.
Community 2 There was no change with the (2) Active homes on the market. The rewarding news was found in Pending Status. There are now (3) total and (2) that were on the market less than (8) days. That’s good news. What’s even more impressive? One was Listed for $2.8 million and at nearly $500 per square foot. Both figures are a record. This further establishes Fulbrook as perhaps the finest estate lot community in Houston.
Community 3 Active inventory dropped slightly to (39) from a near all-time high of (42). However, just (11) were Resales. Unfortunately, most are approaching (30) days on the market and (7) have already had price reductions. There were (7) homes that Sold and the inside numbers were up slightly from June, with July witnessing an average Sales Price of $650,935 and $198 per square foot.
Community 4 New Sections opened which allowed more New Homes to enter the market. And, that they did! The Active Inventory rose dramatically from (74) to end July with (107). The number in Pending Status rebounded too, from a huge drop in June, and then rose back up to end July with (57). They did so impressively, averaging just over $610,000 and at an all-time high of $206 per square foot.
Community 5 There was no change in Activity. There are (5) Active homes on the market and not a change from June.
Community 6
It’s always a “mystery” on how to report their results. Active inventory declined from (38) in June to end July with (26). There were also (23) homes in Pending Status, yet only (4) that Sold. The mystery is how every month there are so many in Pending, yet they never show up to be reported as Sales. Oh well, I can only report what is given…
话说， 在一些人嘴里， 房价怎么突然又和利息有关了？
之前不是说， 利息涨了房价也不会跌， 因为都是cash offer 吗？
怎么利息一跌， 马上又有关系了？
疫情期间生出来的娃塞不回去了，这多出来的娃都带来妥妥的需求在这里，这些人总得有房子住，不让买房就房租涨
原材料价格都在大幅下降，下面的房价还会继续疯涨吗？
现在是机构和投资客炒房的少了，短期市场预期不明，不着急入场。
要照你这么说，岂不是房价堪忧？
疫情期间，美国生育率显著下降。
码农不都是现金买房的吗？
有数据吗？跟我看到的情况相反
babies were born in the US by year
2016 3,941,109 2017 3,853,472 2018 3,791,712 2019 3,745,540 2020 3,605,201 2021 3,659,289
我搜了一下，California 疫情期间birth rate也是下降的，但是我这一批来硅谷的，只要有男女朋友的，这两年都结婚生娃了😂 有娃的也生二胎了…… 本地学区房需求怎么打压都打压不下去，房地产 太local了
我正好相反 我这一批>10对couple 还没有计划生娃的 都是先玩着再说
加州大学现在按zip code AA录取，买什么学区房啊。
天天啃书啃成个眼镜蛇更可怕。 大麻都合法了，年轻的时候交女朋友男朋友是好事。
买中等学区的房子就可以了。只要不买在非常差的区，就没区别。
利息跌倒0%，我觉得大家都会买投资房吧
据说因为股市不好，加息会导致更多的资金从股市流入债市。债市的钱多了自然利率就会下降。好像房屋贷款利率和十年国债很有相关性。