#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 42,664 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 4,373 new cases, which represents a 10.2% positivity rate. 之前荷兰航班10%的阳性率居然可以generally applicable to the S.A. population CleverBeaver 发表于 2021-11-30 13:01
靠， 61/600=10.2% 太巧合了。 indeed, omicron will inevitable appear here。 不愧是政治高手
sugan naidoo, SA update Quick Gauteng update The average passed 2000 today. That line is looking steeper than the three previous waves currently. Just as a reference: Last wave the average took 15 days to go from 1000 to 2000, this time it took 4 days.
sugan naidoo, SA update Quick Gauteng update The average passed 2000 today. That line is looking steeper than the three previous waves currently. Just as a reference: Last wave the average took 15 days to go from 1000 to 2000, this time it took 4 days. Viviennedd 发表于 2021-11-30 20:43
So we were very surprised to see a variant emerge in a place with the highest population immunity in the country. I think that is one of the things that the world doesn’t realize. Some people tried to blame the variant on vaccine hesitancy. We have a problem with that, although potentially not as big a problem as the United States. But people really thought we got out of the woods. Unfortunately, the new variant emerged, and it seems clear that it can reinfect people, which is potentially the last nail in the coffin of herd immunity, which one of your Presidents famously talked about. —Tulio de Oliveira talks about discovering the new variant and his opposition to travel bans. https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-south-african-researchers-identified-the-omicron-variant-of-covid?
So we were very surprised to see a variant emerge in a place with the highest population immunity in the country. I think that is one of the things that the world doesn’t realize. Some people tried to blame the variant on vaccine hesitancy. We have a problem with that, although potentially not as big a problem as the United States. But people really thought we got out of the woods. Unfortunately, the new variant emerged, and it seems clear that it can reinfect people, which is potentially the last nail in the coffin of herd immunity, which one of your Presidents famously talked about. —Tulio de Oliveira talks about discovering the new variant and his opposition to travel bans. https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-south-african-researchers-identified-the-omicron-variant-of-covid?
piamarken In Norway we have a suspected omicron outbreak of 40-50 out of 120 fully vaccinated people, who also tested negative before attending a company Christmas party last Friday… One employee had just returned from SA and tested positive.
piamarken In Norway we have a suspected omicron outbreak of 40-50 out of 120 fully vaccinated people, who also tested negative before attending a company Christmas party last Friday… One employee had just returned from SA and tested positive. Viviennedd 发表于 2021-12-01 17:43
rid1tweets What about hospitalisations in Gauteng? New admissions increased by 144% last week or doubling about every 6 days Remember: hospitalisations lag cases by 1-3 weeks, and with reporting delays need to wait a week to understand actual hospital admissions for previous week... 尽管禁航南非科学家们都强烈反对，他们报道数据很不乐观。但是呢，疫苗热爱派Scott Gottliet正在质疑南非数据受检测影响夸大数据了。这里不太理解，南非为什么夸大数据砸自己的脚呢？
rid1tweets: South Africa🇿🇦 into its 4th wave 🌊 As Gauteng surges, with other provinces now following, case incidence across SA now above 8.8 new cases per 100k and test positivity above 12% 🚩 Based on previous experience, have breached tipping points or thresholds for sustained increase “Statistics from the CDC website for South Africa. Hospitalizations doubling.” 不知道为什么目前不报vaccination status 数据。当地70%感染过delta，疫苗率25%
rid1tweets: South Africa🇿🇦 into its 4th wave 🌊 As Gauteng surges, with other provinces now following, case incidence across SA now above 8.8 new cases per 100k and test positivity above 12% 🚩 Based on previous experience, have breached tipping points or thresholds for sustained increase “Statistics from the CDC website for South Africa. Hospitalizations doubling.” 不知道为什么目前不报vaccination status 数据。当地70%感染过delta，疫苗率25% Viviennedd 发表于 2021-12-02 13:46
是全南非的吧，nicd_sa UPDATE: A total of 51,402 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 11,535 new cases, which represents a 22.4% positivity rate. 传染性增加是无可否定了，未来一周住院率别快速攀升就有希望。
Despite the US announcing its first case of the Omicron coronavirus variant, Dr. Anthony Fauci said during a CNN town hall that holiday travel is safe for those who are vaccinated.
是全南非的吧，nicd_sa UPDATE: A total of 51,402 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 11,535 new cases, which represents a 22.4% positivity rate. 传染性增加是无可否定了，未来一周住院率别快速攀升就有希望。 Viviennedd 发表于 2021-12-02 14:19
Despite the US announcing its first case of the Omicron coronavirus variant, Dr. Anthony Fauci said during a CNN town hall that holiday travel is safe for those who are vaccinated. vitd120 发表于 2021-12-02 15:37
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00258-1/fulltext 疫苗注射率高的地区感染率在增高 什么道理？ High COVID-19 vaccination rates were expected to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in populations by reducing the number of possible sources for transmission and thereby to reduce the burden of COVID-19 disease. Recent data, however, indicate that the epidemiological relevance of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals is increasing. In the UK it was described that secondary attack rates among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% for vaccinated vs 23% for unvaccinated). 12 of 31 infections in fully vaccinated household contacts (39%) arose from fully vaccinated epidemiologically linked index cases. Peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type [[1]]. In Germany, the rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases among the fully vaccinated (“breakthrough infections”) is reported weekly since 21. July 2021 and was 16.9% at that time among patients of 60 years and older [[2]]. This proportion is increasing week by week and was 58.9% on 27. October 2021
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00258-1/fulltext 疫苗注射率高的地区感染率在增高 什么道理？ High COVID-19 vaccination rates were expected to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in populations by reducing the number of possible sources for transmission and thereby to reduce the burden of COVID-19 disease. Recent data, however, indicate that the epidemiological relevance of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals is increasing. In the UK it was described that secondary attack rates among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% for vaccinated vs 23% for unvaccinated). 12 of 31 infections in fully vaccinated household contacts (39%) arose from fully vaccinated epidemiologically linked index cases. Peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type [[1]]. In Germany, the rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases among the fully vaccinated (“breakthrough infections”) is reported weekly since 21. July 2021 and was 16.9% at that time among patients of 60 years and older [[2]]. This proportion is increasing week by week and was 58.9% on 27. October 2021
Booster mix and match result 英国一共测试了7种疫苗： 上市的：AZ，辉瑞，Moderna，强生和 Novavax 未上市：Curevac一代疫苗 (已经放弃）和 Valneva （灭活） 混合打效果很显著。尤其是打了AZ/强生后，加强针最佳选择Moderna和Novavax，然后是辉瑞。 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/health/covid-booster-shots-mix-and-match.html?auth=login-email&login=email https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/norway-introduces-new-anti-covid-measures-in-oslo-over-suspected-omicron-cluster OSLO (AFP) - Norway introduced new anti-Covid measures in greater Oslo on Thursday (Dec 2) after a suspected cluster of Omicron cases emerged among dozens of vaccinated people.
至少等着看数据吧 看看booster对这个变种有效率多少 如果低的话 干嘛去打那么多毒在体内 不如等加强版出来一块打
新的怎么也要三个月吧。 周围大部分人第二针打完快有8个月了， 还是需要打个booster过冬啊。
和你这种造谣被抓不肯承认的人无话可说。
你知道改版疫苗和原始疫苗相互有影响么？你知道mRNA多剂量有什么叠加副作用么？都是未知数。实验室结果显示棘突蛋白明显变型了好么，现在打得是原始版针对最初病毒的，设计两剂的。根本没必要冲刺booster，不过是booster受众更容易接受推动而已。要说该推的是那些一针都没打的好不好。这么急匆匆地推就是等出了问题再说的临床试验。自选进对照组还是实验组，谁都别说服谁了。
Delta当时刚被发现的时候是去年12月，在印度。 等到美国爆的时候，已经是8-9月了。 没有booster， 怎么抵抗Delta。我最近几个朋友都去测抗体了。大部分都是500以下，决定去打booster。 有一位不知为什么，打了P家的，现在还有1000， 觉得可以再挺挺。
靠， 61/600=10.2% 太巧合了。 indeed, omicron will inevitable appear here。 不愧是政治高手
还有1000的是不是以前感染过？
Quick Gauteng update
The average passed 2000 today. That line is looking steeper than the three previous waves currently. Just as a reference: Last wave the average took 15 days to go from 1000 to 2000, this time it took 4 days.
我问了，人家说因为工作原因每个月都测COVID一次，都是negative。所以我也有点纳闷，鼓励他自首去当小白鼠。 哈哈
问题是多少重症？
那个地区是3000多确诊，不到100新住院。director说要密切关注未来两周住院率，希望是虚惊一场。
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1465788414326976518
Gauteng省过去两周住院人数增加了5倍。
你还是活在自己的世界里吧 荷兰首例未接种 开心了吧？
CNN报的 你再找个华盛顿邮报来反驳一下！
不同quasi species之间到底会不会有之前被疫苗人士描述过的只有灭活才会有的ADE问题 也是未知
This is not good news.
对打过加强针就能90%降低重症风险表示怀疑。
如果原始数据来自以色列，可只有几个人确诊。怎么算出来的？体外实验还没完成，要2周后才出结果。
估计有未披露的信息
我也不知道他的preliminary report 是指哪一个， 也可能是体外实验的preliminary result。我是看了你发了他的tweet，自己去看了看他的twitter， 发现这个新帖的。 的确还是要耐心，等两周吧。
就像用不让生孩子来控制人口增长一样有效。
这个确实巧的可怕 但貌似也没什么不合理哈
吃西瓜的我表示可以接受目前
—Tulio de Oliveira talks about discovering the new variant and his opposition to travel bans.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-south-african-researchers-identified-the-omicron-variant-of-covid?
不奇怪以色列反应迅速了
哈哈，herd immunity棺材上的最后一颗钉，说得好
抗体是要针对病毒的，病毒变了，抗体再多有什么用，反而浪费免疫资源 如果抗体无论是啥越多越好，那干脆打5针flu shot对抗covid得了，还没啥副作用，lol
这个就是狡辩了。病毒有变异，原先的抗体会中和能力下降（下降多少要两周后出来），所以更高的浓度才会达到同样的保护。这个在Delta这样的变种上已经验证了。你说的是flu是完全不一样的病毒，自然抗体再多也无效。也许这样的逻辑对你而言太高深？
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/01/us-confirms-nations-first-case-of-omicron-covid-variant-in-california.html
不奇怪了，估计还有更多，只是没测到而已
美国演戏演过了吧，那么多新增病例，那么多人飞来飞去，愣是最后检出新变种。目前南非是amplifying, 其他地区不可能没有，真像delta重演。
嗯嗯
我也觉得 东部居然没有
就只是在amplify而已 现在被倒打一耙是源头 哎
南非这领导才是领导风范
美国都是一些啥啥啥 什么科学贡献都没有的Fauci居然说自己代表science
确实是 不要想herd immunity了 也解释了为啥一个个都封掉了
这东西没办法群体免疫了，不能清0，只能靠病毒自己变弱了。
中国的搞法只在中国实际，在西方国家搞不了的。中国自古就有遇到瘟疫封村封城、阻断交通、把病人隔离起来的做法。西方则是瘟疫盛行的时候有人自己躲到乡下，有人搞聚会整末日狂欢
In Norway we have a suspected omicron outbreak of 40-50 out of 120 fully vaccinated people, who also tested negative before attending a company Christmas party last Friday… One employee had just returned from SA and tested positive.
武汉重现有没有 还好杀伤力弱了一点 传染力杠杠的
上周末假日，测序实验室休假。据说从周一起，把所有最近去过南非的确诊者的样本测序，终于加州最先发现，否则面子上太难看了，近30个国家都报了，美国怎能错过。纽约市因为忙着开张合法吸毒所，没时间测。
都不知道你是傻还是坏。中和能力下降但是不到零啊。以量取胜是个好策略，虽然不是最好的策略。如果omicron成为dominant variant, 最好的策略是做omicron specific的疫苗，但是现在没有，以后也不一定有，有也得3-6个月之后。如果delta继续保持dominant地位，现在boost抗体水平也是很有好处的。
流感疫苗如果九月打就没有11月打好，因为九月打了后抗体水平在流感的高峰（每个地方每年的高峰不一样，北半球大部分年份是十二月，一月或者二月）会已经下降。你要是自己觉得下降一点无所谓，你九月打流感疫苗我也拦不着。
老年人的流感疫苗要么是中年人的两倍剂量，要么用佐剂。为什么不是十倍剂量？为什么不是每个人都打五针？因为总要有个度嘛。太多了没有用，还有叠加副作用风险。测过的两倍剂量效果比一倍剂量好、收益大于风险，所以就用着了。是不是应该老年人用三倍剂量更好？不知道！
两针mRNA六个月后的抗体水平平均已经decay到远远不如打完后一个月的水平，再补一针可以提高免疫水平。moderna在研究第三针应该100微克还是50微克。与此同时，就先50微克，因为已经拿到eua，而 100微克还没有eua。
有中和能力的抗体的量，和中和能力本身，都是好东西，都值得拥有。
你觉得没用就不打，别人管不着。觉得第三针有用的人自己打就是了。
我也觉得其实很扯
CDC公告对确诊者疫苗接种情况只字不提。
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1201-omicron-variant.html
已经一个月了！！
应该是11月底，打错了。
okok 谢谢
What about hospitalisations in Gauteng?
New admissions increased by 144% last week or doubling about every 6 days
Remember: hospitalisations lag cases by 1-3 weeks, and with reporting delays need to wait a week to understand actual hospital admissions for previous week...
尽管禁航南非科学家们都强烈反对，他们报道数据很不乐观。但是呢，疫苗热爱派Scott Gottliet正在质疑南非数据受检测影响夸大数据了。这里不太理解，南非为什么夸大数据砸自己的脚呢？
然而对于普通大众你能做什么？除了打booster，你还能做什么？
增强免疫力，做好物理防护，等待对新毒株有针对性的新疫苗。前两针都已经被证实对病毒变种保护力有限了，凭什么配方都不变的第三针就一定有用？
因为钱都付了……
纽约不可能没有。想想去年新冠案例在西岸一个个蹦出来，纽约有结界的时候。结果纽约成了美国的武汉
家有上学娃怎么办，我觉得和裸奔区别不大
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/minnesota-reports-second-us-omicron-covid-case-in-resident-who-traveled-to-nyc.html
纽约州昨天连确诊的数据都没公布，第二例确诊21日离开纽约市，但纽约市一片祥和。
booster也是用来应对delta的吧。 毕竟现在新变种还没传开啊。
South Africa🇿🇦 into its 4th wave 🌊
As Gauteng surges, with other provinces now following, case incidence across SA now above 8.8 new cases per 100k and test positivity above 12% 🚩
Based on previous experience, have breached tipping points or thresholds for sustained increase
“Statistics from the CDC website for South Africa. Hospitalizations doubling.”
不知道为什么目前不报vaccination status 数据。当地70%感染过delta，疫苗率25%
荷兰说要南非来的全部在登机前重测是不是阳性了 因为绝大多数下飞机阳性的都是打过疫苗的
每十万人才8.8个，我们州可是68。阳性率才12%算什么啊，我们这里都快20%了。
https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1466456673409773571
是全南非的吧，nicd_sa
UPDATE: A total of 51,402 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 11,535 new cases, which represents a 22.4% positivity rate.
传染性增加是无可否定了，未来一周住院率别快速攀升就有希望。
老疫苗，即使是老版mRNA也不管用，得接着打新版booster，不过好像还没出来
奥密克戎的恐怖之处在于多达30多处的突刺蛋白突变。简单来说就是，mRNA的设计是基于对新冠病毒突刺蛋白的了解，如果突刺蛋白发生巨大变化，原先设计的mRNA是无法产生有效免疫的——老版本的mRNA只能产生老版本新冠病毒的突刺蛋白，对新变种的突刺蛋白“一无所知”；既然如此，就根本无法让人体免疫系统拥有对新变种的有效抗体。
Despite the US announcing its first case of the Omicron coronavirus variant, Dr. Anthony Fauci said during a CNN town hall that holiday travel is safe for those who are vaccinated.
基本上是的 没办法 找小一点的学校上课稍微好一点
嗯 目前好几个地方阳性率都在20-30%
厉害了 传播疫情他最在行
要大力推booster了
最快下周就会有各类疫苗体外测试的结果。
是的 搞不好这两种会像flu b一样同时流行
之前中南美已经发现有人同时感染两个variants然后recombine产生稳定的新变种的情况了
疫苗注射率高的地区感染率在增高 什么道理？
High COVID-19 vaccination rates were expected to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in populations by reducing the number of possible sources for transmission and thereby to reduce the burden of COVID-19 disease. Recent data, however, indicate that the epidemiological relevance of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals is increasing. In the UK it was described that secondary attack rates among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% for vaccinated vs 23% for unvaccinated). 12 of 31 infections in fully vaccinated household contacts (39%) arose from fully vaccinated epidemiologically linked index cases. Peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type [[1]]. In Germany, the rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases among the fully vaccinated (“breakthrough infections”) is reported weekly since 21. July 2021 and was 16.9% at that time among patients of 60 years and older [[2]]. This proportion is increasing week by week and was 58.9% on 27. October 2021
疫苗跟在病毒后面吃灰 还是口罩靠谱啊
美国这三例都是breakthrough
这有什么病毒免疫学解释么？？德国现在还在力推疫苗啊，这个结论没人提。
所以猜想有没有可能Omicron变种是在mRNA疫苗接种者身上突变成功的；如果是，那打了mRNA疫苗的人会不会更易感？只是猜想，希望我是错的。
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/new-york-omicron-covid-variant.html
这是啥意思？专门感染打疫苗的？
样本太少。
但我猜想有没有可能Omicron变种是在mRNA疫苗接种者身上突变成功的；如果是，那打了mRNA疫苗的人会不会更易感？希望我是错的。
南非没打疫苗一堆堆的感染，你们想多了吧
感觉都是倒逼承认 比如hk-南非 明尼苏达-纽约
反正现在说o变种的来源途径比较非传统 到底咋来的估计和原始毒株一样了
嗯 德国要对没打针的实行lockdown了
英国一共测试了7种疫苗： 上市的：AZ，辉瑞，Moderna，强生和 Novavax 未上市：Curevac一代疫苗 (已经放弃）和 Valneva （灭活）
混合打效果很显著。尤其是打了AZ/强生后，加强针最佳选择Moderna和Novavax，然后是辉瑞。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/health/covid-booster-shots-mix-and-match.html?auth=login-email&login=email
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext
吓人
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/norway-introduces-new-anti-covid-measures-in-oslo-over-suspected-omicron-cluster
OSLO (AFP) - Norway introduced new anti-Covid measures in greater Oslo on Thursday (Dec 2) after a suspected cluster of Omicron cases emerged among dozens of vaccinated people.
HIV 好像从来没有变弱
等了好几天了 等的花儿也谢了 希望下周早点啊 再拖就到圣诞出游季了 再打也晚了
看得我心脏疼
这位ID应该改名misinform，总散发misinformation。谁说两针没效果？太烦这种散步谣言的人了
现在非洲以外的感染者基本都是飞机乘客，这些乘客中本来打mRNA疫苗的就占绝大多数，所以让你产生了是否打了mRNA疫苗的人更容易感染O变种的疑问。但你要是了解一下南非的情况，没打疫苗的人感染O变种占绝大多数，医院里面O变种病人也是没打疫苗的占大多数。不仅如此，据南非专家说O变种比Delta等其它变种更易造成二次感染。现在看来无论是以前自然感染或打疫苗产生的抗体都不能免于感染这个新变种，希望自然感染和疫苗对防重症还是有效。