默克 (Merck) 的 Covid pill molnupiravir 有效率只有30%,基本算无用了

m
meraviglia
楼主 (北美华人网)
虽然中期结果有效率有50%,但最终结果防止住院或死亡的有效率只有30%,这还是对Delta变种。基本算无用了。
接下来看辉瑞的covid pill 了,希望辉瑞不要三期作假或夸大其词。
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/mercks-covid-pill-shows-lower-efficacy-in-updated-data-.html
l
little_racoon
核苷类似物的机理是让病毒疯狂突变到无法正常复制,对什么变种基本上都是一样的。
这个药的巨大concern主要在别的地方,看我以前的帖子。
https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2744374
从nu变种的出现来看,新冠病毒在合适的条件下是可以迅速突变出一个全新变种,打破原有的免疫屏障的,所以使用这种机理的药物要非常非常小心,这是个我非常担心的事情。。。
m
meraviglia
核苷类似物的机理是让病毒疯狂突变到无法正常复制,对什么变种基本上都是一样的。
这个药的巨大concern主要在别的地方,看我以前的帖子。
https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2744374
从nu变种的出现来看,新冠病毒在合适的条件下是可以迅速突变出一个全新变种,打破原有的免疫屏障的,所以使用这种机理的药物要非常非常小心,这是个我非常担心的事情。。。
little_racoon 发表于 2021-11-26 08:52

谢谢小浣熊。
那辉瑞的 covid pill 对 Nu 会不会有效率下降呢?
心想事成2021
回复 2楼little_racoon的帖子
谢谢科普 请问Booster 还管用吗
f
flipping
看公布的数据,这次的结果对照组住院率比上次大幅度减少,服药组住院率减少了一点。这个药对高危病人群体更有用吗?
v
vitd120
好奇怪的数据,吃药组没咋变,对照组从interim analysis以来好像就表现超好赶上来了。如果真的只有30% efficacy吃fluvoxamine就好了
A planned interim analysis of the data last month showed that 7.3% of those given molnupiravir twice a day for five days were hospitalized and none had died by 29 days after the treatment. That compared with a hospitalization rate of 14.1% for placebo patients. In the updated data, 6.8% of those given molnupiravir were hospitalized and one person died, while the other placebo group had a hospitalization rate of 9.7%.
这些已经agreed卖的怎么办
Japan has agreed to buy 1.6 million courses of Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics’ COVID-19 antiviral molnupiravir for $1.2 billion if the pill wins local authorization or approval. The deal comes shortly after the U.S. government agreed to buy another 1.4 million courses of the drug, bringing its total purchase to 3.1 million courses at a cost of $2.2 billion.
还是pfizer幸运,好结果一出就停了,也不会有这种尴尬的情况。Pfizer will cease further enrollment into the study due to the overwhelming efficacy demonstrated in these results 
c
chopinor
好奇怪的数据,吃药组没咋变,对照组从interim analysis以来好像就表现超好赶上来了。如果真的只有30% efficacy吃fluvoxamine就好了
A planned interim analysis of the data last month showed that 7.3% of those given molnupiravir twice a day for five days were hospitalized and none had died by 29 days after the treatment. That compared with a hospitalization rate of 14.1% for placebo patients. In the updated data, 6.8% of those given molnupiravir were hospitalized and one person died, while the other placebo group had a hospitalization rate of 9.7%.
这些已经agreed卖的怎么办
Japan has agreed to buy 1.6 million courses of Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics’ COVID-19 antiviral molnupiravir for $1.2 billion if the pill wins local authorization or approval. The deal comes shortly after the U.S. government agreed to buy another 1.4 million courses of the drug, bringing its total purchase to 3.1 million courses at a cost of $2.2 billion.
还是pfizer幸运,好结果一出就停了,也不会有这种尴尬的情况。Pfizer will cease further enrollment into the study due to the overwhelming efficacy demonstrated in these results 
vitd120 发表于 2021-11-26 09:22

是因为对照组打疫苗的多了么
s
star1991
那还是单抗有用?大力发展单抗吧
v
vitd120
是因为对照组打疫苗的多了么
chopinor 发表于 2021-11-26 09:23

不知道啊,我在想他这个都是高危人群,是不是跑去打booster了
这是公司的link,
https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-ridgeback-biotherapeutics-provide-update-on-results-from-move-out-study-of-molnupiravir-an-investigational-oral-antiviral-medicine-in-at-risk-adults-with-mild-to-moderate-covid-19/
防死还是能防的: Nine deaths were reported in the placebo group, and one in the molnupiravir group.
m
meraviglia
防死亡不好说,一共才1500人,样本太小。
d
ddg2001
核苷类似物的机理是让病毒疯狂突变到无法正常复制,对什么变种基本上都是一样的。
这个药的巨大concern主要在别的地方,看我以前的帖子。
https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2744374
从nu变种的出现来看,新冠病毒在合适的条件下是可以迅速突变出一个全新变种,打破原有的免疫屏障的,所以使用这种机理的药物要非常非常小心,这是个我非常担心的事情。。。
little_racoon 发表于 2021-11-26 08:52

不是做toxicology的就不要comment这个genotox的问题了。术业有专攻啊。。。
N
Nana2017
不是做toxicology的就不要comment这个genotox的问题了。术业有专攻啊。。。
ddg2001 发表于 2021-11-26 10:06

展开说说
d
ddg2001
展开说说
Nana2017 发表于 2021-11-26 12:06

我自己也不是toxicology的背景,所以不敢瞎说。但是我最近听过好几个药厂几十年toxicology经验VP级别的人comment过这个药的genotox liability,基本上都不觉得是个concern. 我相信little_racoon也不是搞toxicology,所以不宜给过多speculation的comments 有些相关的paper有兴趣可以读一下。 https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/224/8/1442/6319402?login=true https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027869151630309X https://academic.oup.com/mutage/article/33/2/179/4970106

R
Rxy51
回复 2楼little_racoon的帖子
谢谢科普 请问Booster 还管用吗
心想事成2021 发表于 2021-11-26 09:03

管不管用也要等大面积打了再看。。。
l
lolilollipop
我自己也不是toxicology的背景,所以不敢瞎说。但是我最近听过好几个药厂几十年toxicology经验VP级别的人comment过这个药的genotox liability,基本上都不觉得是个concern. 我相信little_racoon也不是搞toxicology,所以不宜给过多speculation的comments 有些相关的paper有兴趣可以读一下。 https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/224/8/1442/6319402?login=true https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027869151630309X https://academic.oup.com/mutage/article/33/2/179/4970106


ddg2001 发表于 2021-11-26 12:19

也有toxicologist 对这很有concern的,就是个controversial 的药
l
little_racoon
回复 13楼ddg2001的帖子
toxicology我知道我是外行,所以你看我全部都是转述的大佬William Haseltine的观点