5-11 岁covid 疫苗benefit vs risk 总结

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huangleboluo
回复 344楼Seeking668的帖子
其实死亡数他们也可以作假,比如一个车祸死亡的人最后测出新冠结果被算成新冠死亡。这年头,没有不可能的事。
S
Seeking668
作为CDC的头,也不知道到底CDC多少人还在remote上班,这不是扯蛋么!
xiaoyiyue 发表于 2021-11-08 02:37

她真是脸皮赛城墙啊,她知道连国会都拿她没办法,就敢面对国会面对付她工资的国民骗你没商量 上个CDC的头至少比较sincere,像个科学家
m
m口罩sk
现在还有人讨论正事吗? 楼主帖子得第一条,第一句: “1.根据10/29/2021发表在医药顶级期刊《柳叶刀》 的文章(引用-1),疫苗确实降低了covid 感染率,但是在 delta 传播方面的作用微乎其微 。” 也就是说,对一个独立个体来说,疫苗降低了他/她感染covid的几率——这不就直接是有效果吗?回答完yes or no再说副作用好吗?至于阻挡传播,这个一直就当笑话来看,任何疫苗都不敢说自己100%但米国人民就敢打了疫苗以为自己就百毒不侵口罩不带social distance不要生活照旧指望他们阻断真不如指望病毒自杀。

m
m口罩sk
回复 1楼sv_citizen的帖子
请问楼主如果孩子学校不要求戴口罩很多孩子和老师不戴口罩的情况下会选择打疫苗还是转学到强制戴口罩的学校?
tiger74 发表于 2021-11-07 00:14

如果大家都不mandate口罩,很不可能还有什么mandate口罩的学校了,大家一心一意要back to normal,打疫苗的附加值就是这个大饼,再提口罩老美不干了。
h
hnlaser
回复 344楼Seeking668的帖子
其实死亡数他们也可以作假,比如一个车祸死亡的人最后测出新冠结果被算成新冠死亡。这年头,没有不可能的事。
huangleboluo 发表于 2021-11-08 02:40

这个不算作假,只是个统计口径的问题,而且不是专门为新冠搞得,2010年就开始了,叫flu burden,统计当年流行病造成的相关超量死亡,比如如果用这个模型,武汉封城的时候跳楼死的也算到这里。
你我对面不相识
回复 344楼Seeking668的帖子
其实死亡数他们也可以作假,比如一个车祸死亡的人最后测出新冠结果被算成新冠死亡。这年头,没有不可能的事。
huangleboluo 发表于 2021-11-08 02:40

就是这么算的啊 所以我早就不看数据了 全是garbage.

你我对面不相识
这个不算作假,只是个统计口径的问题,而且不是专门为新冠搞得,2010年就开始了,叫flu burden,统计当年流行病造成的相关超量死亡,比如如果用这个模型,武汉封城的时候跳楼死的也算到这里。
hnlaser 发表于 2021-11-08 13:00

关键在对比打了和没打的死亡率的时候要一致 不能再算unvaccinated 死亡的时候 把车祸死是测试阳性的算在unvaccinated 头上 然后一转脸在算vaccined死亡那就怎么都跟疫苗无关 这还比个屁啊
你我对面不相识
Senator Johnson Expert Panel on Federal Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Injuries


Senator Johnson Expert Panel on Federal Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Injuries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lepqvdXoA2E
视频中部分发言人名单。 Linda Wastila,BSPharm, MSPH, PhD, 马里兰大学, Director of Research, The Peter Lamy Center on Drug Therapy and Aging Parke-Davis Chair in Geriatric Pharmacotherapy。https://www.pharmacy.umaryland.edu/centers/lamy/our-team/ 反对强制。 Lieutenant Colonel Theresa Long,军医,非常推荐看,很多信息量。疫苗对军人的伤害大于covid的伤害。 1.07.41开始是这个教授Robert Kaplan https://profiles.stanford.edu/robert-kaplan 1:19 Peter Doshi是一月份就在质疑辉瑞数据不对的人。https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/ 指出这个95%有效性根本就是胡扯。 讲的特别好,everybody knows, this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated -- but if it is the case that hospitals are full of unvaccinated, why would we need the booster shot? Everybody knows that covid vaccines save lives --- placebo group 14, vaccine group 15. even covid death, placebo group 2, vaccine group 1.
CDC 修改了疫苗的定义:definition of vaccine 1:36 儿科医生John Whelan from UCLA. 去年就给FDA写信说这个刺突蛋白不能用来做疫苗。https://www.uclahealth.org/providers/john-whelan 1:41 UCSF Aditi Bhargava @UCSF, https://cancer.ucsf.edu/people/bhargava.aditi CDC自己的数据,现在已经90%人有抗体了

1:48 Prof. Retsef Levi, from MIT. https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/retsef-levi 他说很多学术界的人,都觉得现在的narrative extreme and wrong,但是不敢发言。他说一个MIT的院士说: you got to be careful, as you could be eliminated (指他提出对目前疫苗的质疑)   Joel Wallskog, MD,外科医生。Numbness after Moderna 1st shot, 外科医生的职业基本over。 Shaun Barcavage, 护士,numbness and tickling, 第一针就有问题,看了一个神经科医生,医生说可能等等就好了,还让他去打第二针,第二针之后爆发,现在不能站立多于5分钟,手脚如针扎一般。Pain 7 out of 10.  找不到医生给与治疗。在社交媒体上求助,被label anti-vaxer.  Aaron Siri, https://www.sirillp.com/aaron-siri/ 律师。说自从COVID疫苗推出之后,他们的电话被打爆。3个共性,疫苗不良反应病人,哪怕自己是医生,去寻求医疗帮助,往往得到的回应是不相信他们的病,并让他们去看看精神是否有问题。医生汇报到VAERS,没有人回应,给CDC, FDA写信,没有回应,律师又写信去(信在下面),FDA/CDC回复说我们没有看到safety signal, everything is fine, nothing to see here.  https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/whistleblower-fda-and-cdc-ignore
这里是一些其他的病人。 Suzanna Newell, 打疫苗前,热爱运动,铁人三项。现在需要walker,自免疫疾病。 Kellai Ann Rodriguez, 35岁,需要walker,未知的颤抖,神经问题。 Doug Cameron, 疫苗后瘫痪。 Kyle Warner, 29岁山地自行车运动员,两次拿到世界冠军,心肌炎,运动生涯已经结束。 Ernest Ramirez, 单亲爸爸,儿子疫苗后心肌炎死亡,他说My government lied to me.  Cody Flint,飞行员,疫苗后脑水肿,飞行中突然犯病,好在成功降落,经历了开颅手术和其他一系列大手术。



h
happy3001
唉,疫情前我还给娃打了HPV,可见我以前是多么相信疫苗。
现在实在是对政府权威没有任何信任感,我觉得自己2021年最大的成就就是顶住各种压力,没有给孩子打covid针。挺过了那几个月,到现在各种信息和事实井喷,连孩子自己都赞同我当初的决定。
Garibaldi 发表于 2021-11-07 13:34

是不是好的决定,现在说太早了。以后再看吧。
h
hnlaser
关键在对比打了和没打的死亡率的时候要一致 不能再算unvaccinated 死亡的时候 把车祸死是测试阳性的算在unvaccinated 头上 然后一转脸在算vaccined死亡那就怎么都跟疫苗无关 这还比个屁啊
你我对面不相识 发表于 2021-11-08 14:09

这两个统计不一回事,目的都不一样
你我对面不相识
这两个统计不一回事,目的都不一样
hnlaser 发表于 2021-11-08 14:15

可是通常被放在一起比啊
e
esprit88
关键在对比打了和没打的死亡率的时候要一致 不能再算unvaccinated 死亡的时候 把车祸死是测试阳性的算在unvaccinated 头上 然后一转脸在算vaccined死亡那就怎么都跟疫苗无关 这还比个屁啊
你我对面不相识 发表于 2021-11-08 14:09

话糙理不糙
w
westlake
关键在对比打了和没打的死亡率的时候要一致 不能再算unvaccinated 死亡的时候 把车祸死是测试阳性的算在unvaccinated 头上 然后一转脸在算vaccined死亡那就怎么都跟疫苗无关 这还比个屁啊
你我对面不相识 发表于 2021-11-08 14:09

你怎么知道这个统计不一样?我理解美国新冠死亡是新冠是病人诊断之一就算,但是车祸不可能算在新冠死亡里,不管是有没有打疫苗 这个统计方法在有没有打疫苗的人群都是一样的。
C
CleverBeaver
关键在对比打了和没打的死亡率的时候要一致 不能再算unvaccinated 死亡的时候 把车祸死是测试阳性的算在unvaccinated 头上 然后一转脸在算vaccined死亡那就怎么都跟疫苗无关 这还比个屁啊
你我对面不相识 发表于 2021-11-08 14:09

两回事
一个是疫苗有没有作用
一个是疫苗有没有害处
打完针几天就出问题的,哪怕不算在疫苗无效的统计里面,起码可以仔细看看是不是疫苗造成的危害
e
esprit88
Senator Johnson Expert Panel on Federal Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Injuries


Senator Johnson Expert Panel on Federal Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Injuries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lepqvdXoA2E
视频中部分发言人名单。 Linda Wastila,BSPharm, MSPH, PhD, 马里兰大学, Director of Research, The Peter Lamy Center on Drug Therapy and Aging Parke-Davis Chair in Geriatric Pharmacotherapy。https://www.pharmacy.umaryland.edu/centers/lamy/our-team/ 反对强制。 Lieutenant Colonel Theresa Long,军医,非常推荐看,很多信息量。疫苗对军人的伤害大于covid的伤害。 1.07.41开始是这个教授Robert Kaplan https://profiles.stanford.edu/robert-kaplan 1:19 Peter Doshi是一月份就在质疑辉瑞数据不对的人。https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/ 指出这个95%有效性根本就是胡扯。 讲的特别好,everybody knows, this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated -- but if it is the case that hospitals are full of unvaccinated, why would we need the booster shot? Everybody knows that covid vaccines save lives --- placebo group 14, vaccine group 15. even covid death, placebo group 2, vaccine group 1.
CDC 修改了疫苗的定义:definition of vaccine 1:36 儿科医生John Whelan from UCLA. 去年就给FDA写信说这个刺突蛋白不能用来做疫苗。https://www.uclahealth.org/providers/john-whelan 1:41 UCSF Aditi Bhargava @UCSF, https://cancer.ucsf.edu/people/bhargava.aditi CDC自己的数据,现在已经90%人有抗体了

1:48 Prof. Retsef Levi, from MIT. https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/retsef-levi 他说很多学术界的人,都觉得现在的narrative extreme and wrong,但是不敢发言。他说一个MIT的院士说: you got to be careful, as you could be eliminated (指他提出对目前疫苗的质疑)   Joel Wallskog, MD,外科医生。Numbness after Moderna 1st shot, 外科医生的职业基本over。 Shaun Barcavage, 护士,numbness and tickling, 第一针就有问题,看了一个神经科医生,医生说可能等等就好了,还让他去打第二针,第二针之后爆发,现在不能站立多于5分钟,手脚如针扎一般。Pain 7 out of 10.  找不到医生给与治疗。在社交媒体上求助,被label anti-vaxer.  Aaron Siri, https://www.sirillp.com/aaron-siri/ 律师。说自从COVID疫苗推出之后,他们的电话被打爆。3个共性,疫苗不良反应病人,哪怕自己是医生,去寻求医疗帮助,往往得到的回应是不相信他们的病,并让他们去看看精神是否有问题。医生汇报到VAERS,没有人回应,给CDC, FDA写信,没有回应,律师又写信去(信在下面),FDA/CDC回复说我们没有看到safety signal, everything is fine, nothing to see here.  https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/whistleblower-fda-and-cdc-ignore
这里是一些其他的病人。 Suzanna Newell, 打疫苗前,热爱运动,铁人三项。现在需要walker,自免疫疾病。 Kellai Ann Rodriguez, 35岁,需要walker,未知的颤抖,神经问题。 Doug Cameron, 疫苗后瘫痪。 Kyle Warner, 29岁山地自行车运动员,两次拿到世界冠军,心肌炎,运动生涯已经结束。 Ernest Ramirez, 单亲爸爸,儿子疫苗后心肌炎死亡,他说My government lied to me.  Cody Flint,飞行员,疫苗后脑水肿,飞行中突然犯病,好在成功降落,经历了开颅手术和其他一系列大手术。




你我对面不相识 发表于 2021-11-08 14:09

“CDC 修改了疫苗的定义:definition of vaccine 1:36 儿科医生John Whelan from UCLA. 去年就给FDA写信说这个刺突蛋白不能用来做疫苗。https://www.uclahealth.org/providers/john-whelan”
儿科医生John Whelan from UCLA. 去年给FDA的信: https://www.regulations.gov/document/FDA-2020-N-1898-0246
跟我想的一样,这个刺突蛋白是covid病毒危害的关键,也是所有刺突蛋白based疫苗毒性的关键
I
Idle
到今天CDC的头还“不知道多少CDC员工%打了疫苗”??? 整个就是狡辩,这种人能有public trust?美国国民能把自己和家人孩子的生命健康寄信任于这种人?

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https://www.youtube.com/embed/QabAtYBnqro?showinfo=0

Seeking668 发表于 2021-11-07 20:10

这是多早以前的了。联邦政府雇员mandate 疫苗了,11月底之前要完成接种,所以cdc员工现在接近100%打了疫苗了。
d
dailymail
Senator Johnson Expert Panel on Federal Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Injuries


Senator Johnson Expert Panel on Federal Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Injuries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lepqvdXoA2E
视频中部分发言人名单。 Linda Wastila,BSPharm, MSPH, PhD, 马里兰大学, Director of Research, The Peter Lamy Center on Drug Therapy and Aging Parke-Davis Chair in Geriatric Pharmacotherapy。https://www.pharmacy.umaryland.edu/centers/lamy/our-team/ 反对强制。 Lieutenant Colonel Theresa Long,军医,非常推荐看,很多信息量。疫苗对军人的伤害大于covid的伤害。 1.07.41开始是这个教授Robert Kaplan https://profiles.stanford.edu/robert-kaplan 1:19 Peter Doshi是一月份就在质疑辉瑞数据不对的人。https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/ 指出这个95%有效性根本就是胡扯。 讲的特别好,everybody knows, this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated -- but if it is the case that hospitals are full of unvaccinated, why would we need the booster shot? Everybody knows that covid vaccines save lives --- placebo group 14, vaccine group 15. even covid death, placebo group 2, vaccine group 1.
CDC 修改了疫苗的定义:definition of vaccine 1:36 儿科医生John Whelan from UCLA. 去年就给FDA写信说这个刺突蛋白不能用来做疫苗。https://www.uclahealth.org/providers/john-whelan 1:41 UCSF Aditi Bhargava @UCSF, https://cancer.ucsf.edu/people/bhargava.aditi CDC自己的数据,现在已经90%人有抗体了

1:48 Prof. Retsef Levi, from MIT. https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/retsef-levi 他说很多学术界的人,都觉得现在的narrative extreme and wrong,但是不敢发言。他说一个MIT的院士说: you got to be careful, as you could be eliminated (指他提出对目前疫苗的质疑)   Joel Wallskog, MD,外科医生。Numbness after Moderna 1st shot, 外科医生的职业基本over。 Shaun Barcavage, 护士,numbness and tickling, 第一针就有问题,看了一个神经科医生,医生说可能等等就好了,还让他去打第二针,第二针之后爆发,现在不能站立多于5分钟,手脚如针扎一般。Pain 7 out of 10.  找不到医生给与治疗。在社交媒体上求助,被label anti-vaxer.  Aaron Siri, https://www.sirillp.com/aaron-siri/ 律师。说自从COVID疫苗推出之后,他们的电话被打爆。3个共性,疫苗不良反应病人,哪怕自己是医生,去寻求医疗帮助,往往得到的回应是不相信他们的病,并让他们去看看精神是否有问题。医生汇报到VAERS,没有人回应,给CDC, FDA写信,没有回应,律师又写信去(信在下面),FDA/CDC回复说我们没有看到safety signal, everything is fine, nothing to see here.  https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/whistleblower-fda-and-cdc-ignore
这里是一些其他的病人。 Suzanna Newell, 打疫苗前,热爱运动,铁人三项。现在需要walker,自免疫疾病。 Kellai Ann Rodriguez, 35岁,需要walker,未知的颤抖,神经问题。 Doug Cameron, 疫苗后瘫痪。 Kyle Warner, 29岁山地自行车运动员,两次拿到世界冠军,心肌炎,运动生涯已经结束。 Ernest Ramirez, 单亲爸爸,儿子疫苗后心肌炎死亡,他说My government lied to me.  Cody Flint,飞行员,疫苗后脑水肿,飞行中突然犯病,好在成功降落,经历了开颅手术和其他一系列大手术。




你我对面不相识 发表于 2021-11-08 14:09

Mark
e
esprit88
这是多早以前的了。联邦政府雇员mandate 疫苗了,11月底之前要完成接种,所以cdc员工现在接近100%打了疫苗了。
Idle 发表于 2021-11-08 15:18

Senator Johnson Expert Panel on Federal Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Injuries204,597 viewsNov 2, 2021
At today's Senate Health Committee hearing, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) asked CDC Director Rochelle Walensky about her department's vaccination rates.


你哪儿看出来是很早以前的了? 瞎话张开就来吗
d
dianawangyu1221
客观专业。给lz点赞。
b
bick2
U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)  The video was uploaded to youtube on 11/2. The event might be held on the same day.
b
bick2
No one wore a mask.
p
ply2005
谢谢分享和总结!
1
180maidenlane
纽约市都是家长排着大长队带着孩子去打疫苗
b
baobao557
羡慕楼主小孩私校可以允许不打疫苗。我们这里寄宿私校mandate疫苗。不过都是高中生了,身体跟成年人长得差不多了,感觉好点。不过小娃现在还不打算打,只要没有强制就先观望一下。
A
AlphaDog
我就是好奇,在5-11岁儿童感染COVID的数据中,有基础病的儿童住院率和没有基础病的儿童住院率有没有区别?
h
huangleboluo
回复 418楼AlphaDog的帖子
他们即使有也不会告诉你,即使告诉你也不知真假。普通人如何根据数据做决定?所以干脆不看数据,只看这件事儿的逻辑就很简单了。
f
foreverf
Rna疫苗的剂量导致rnai效果不大可能,
S
Seeking668
这是多早以前的了。联邦政府雇员mandate 疫苗了,11月底之前要完成接种,所以cdc员工现在接近100%打了疫苗了。
Idle 发表于 2021-11-08 15:18

就是前几天的,另一个议员又问她,还问道如果11/8她还不知道,怎么马上执行biden的疫苗mandate?还是不说,打死也不说,就是藐视议会,藐视民主权力啊,lol

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y
yueceiling
纽约市都是家长排着大长队带着孩子去打疫苗
180maidenlane 发表于 2021-11-08 16:20

我今天狗了一下心肌炎。
永久性心肌炎平均存活期是5年,好的11年,这比癌症都吓人。这都什么父母,争着抢着带孩子去打?本来小孩得新冠的后果和普通流感也差不了多少。
投胎是门艺术。
h
hnlaser
我就是好奇,在5-11岁儿童感染COVID的数据中,有基础病的儿童住院率和没有基础病的儿童住院率有没有区别?
AlphaDog 发表于 2021-11-08 16:39

上次有个新闻,说一个儿童重症住院,最后好像没了,新闻说是一个健康儿童,可是照片上好像不大健康,过于重了一些。。。
d
dngdnhxqs
什么时候开始强制? 目前没收到通知,是1月?
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Seeking668
今天新闻报Pfizer已经向FDA申请给18岁以上所有人打booster了,温水煮青蛙,3针跑不了
果小小
今天新闻报Pfizer已经向FDA申请给18岁以上所有人打booster了,温水煮青蛙,3针跑不了
Seeking668 发表于 2021-11-08 20:13

如果要强制第三针也还没反抗的话,那美国人民真是听话的小绵羊,叫干啥就干啥,有人还总说中国国内都是顺民,美国也不差嘛
果小小
我今天狗了一下心肌炎。
永久性心肌炎平均存活期是5年,好的11年,这比癌症都吓人。这都什么父母,争着抢着带孩子去打?本来小孩得新冠的后果和普通流感也差不了多少。
投胎是门艺术。

yueceiling 发表于 2021-11-08 17:13

父母的脑子决定娃的生死存亡,父母的眼界决定娃的起点
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redroseii
家有男孩,不打算打,害怕心肌炎。
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simplyblue
回复 422楼yueceiling的帖子
12岁到17岁 得新冠后得心肌炎的概率 比打疫苗得心肌炎概率高数倍
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocarditis-is-more-common-after-covid-19-infection-than-vaccination/
Myocarditis is more common after covid-19 infection than vaccination
males aged 12 to 17 were most likely to develop myocarditis within three months of catching covid-19, at a rate of about 450 cases per million infections.
This compares with 67 cases of myocarditis per million males of the same age following their second dose of a Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine, according to figures from the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.

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freys
回复 422楼yueceiling的帖子
12岁到17岁 得新冠后得心肌炎的概率 比打疫苗得心肌炎概率高数倍
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocarditis-is-more-common-after-covid-19-infection-than-vaccination/
Myocarditis is more common after covid-19 infection than vaccination
males aged 12 to 17 were most likely to develop myocarditis within three months of catching covid-19, at a rate of about 450 cases per million infections.
This compares with 67 cases of myocarditis per million males of the same age following their second dose of a Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine, according to figures from the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.


simplyblue 发表于 2021-11-08 21:17

不是所有人都会得新馆的,不感染的话,因为新馆得心肌炎的概率就是0。打了,就是100%拿不出来了。
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foreverf
本人长年逛华人网, 从不发帖回帖。最近几个月,由于专业背景 (985本科生物, 北美genetics phd, biotch/pharm工作经历 ), 经常被问起疫苗的效率和副作用,该不该打之类。 作为 5-11岁孩子的家长,对此也一直很关心, 跟了不少文章和数据,特地注册了id来总结一下, 也算回报华人网。  本帖探讨请基于科学和数据, 谢绝互相贴标签和人身攻击。 理解疫苗黑和疫苗粉的昂奋情绪,但是请移步别的地方吵架, 腾出地方让关心此事的家长多一些有用信息。本帖所有引用在文中用(引用-数字)标注, 在文末附上source链接。
关于疫苗的效用相信大家已经看到很多,这里只用相对新的数据做更新总结。 1.根据10/29/2021发表在医药顶级期刊《柳叶刀》 的文章(引用-1),疫苗确实降低了covid 感染率,但是在 delta 传播方面的作用微乎其微 。文章因此建议研究重点应该加强疫苗和研发新的疫苗以阻断(无症)传播,在这种能阻断传播的疫苗出来之前,除了疫苗之外的其他手段还是必须的。换句话说,打不打疫苗covid也还是会传的, 打了疫苗也还是要其他措施比如戴口罩的。 (为什么降低感染率不降低传播?因为感染infection指的是病毒感染你的细胞, 传播transmission指的是病毒在人与人之间传染。 人际传播率没变低, 是因为病毒载体在vaccinated and unvaccinated的峰值量都一样,都是一样的传播, 但是在vaccinated中清除速度更快所以在vaccinated体内病毒感染细胞的感染率降低了。 ) 2.根据10/04/2021同样发表在《柳叶刀》 的文章(引用-2),疫苗的有效性在第一个月高达93%但是到第五个月就只有53%了。换句话说, 疫苗的作用在随时间而下降, 而且下降得很快。 3.根据9月份英国威尔士的数据(引用-3), 疫苗能降把住院率从X降到~0.5X。 这到底多有用就取决于X是多少了。根据cdc的数据(引用-4), 对于5-11岁, 这个X即使在高峰期也就是1/100,000左右(对比65岁以上的66/100,000)。 这个X这么小, 把它降一半到底有什么用, 这个大家见仁见智了。 4.根据cdc的数据(引用-5,6)0-18岁儿童过去两年covid死亡总数是600左右(年平均300),flu 2019年死亡总数是 200左右(年平均200)。 对于0-18岁儿童, 新冠死亡是流感死亡的1.5倍。 找不到细分的5-11岁的数据。可能5-11岁和12-18岁会有不同。
那么疫苗的安全性如何呢。对于5-11岁家长, 这是大家更关心的问题。 这里分短期(几个月内)和长期(将来)来探讨。 短期的比如allergy 和 myocarditis,allergy 没有好的数据, 但是根据10/26/2021 FDA 会议(引用-7)上的解读和讨论(引用-8),对于5-11岁男孩, 在疫情高峰时, 疫苗造成的myocarditis 和疫苗防止的covid住院是同一数量级别的。 在非高峰时, 疫苗造成的myocarditis 却几倍于疫苗能防止的covid住院。myocarditis 从症状上可轻可重, 但是本质是心肌细胞发炎受损。与我们身体其他部位不停更新的细胞不一样的是, 心肌细胞的自我更新和再生是非常有限的(题外话神经细胞更甚,无法再生,这也是为什么对心脏和大脑的损害大都不可逆)。所以严重的myocarditis 造成的长期影像可能就不是短期副作用了,也不在讨论之列。

长期的疫苗影响读了年初pfizer提交的疫苗研发报告(引用-9) 我个人有几个顾虑: 1) impurities: mRNA 是合成产生的,这个过程就好比你打字一样, 不可能没有错误。 那么这些错误就会造成impurities (比如你要打“我是怪兽的敌人” 变成了“我是怪兽”) 。根据这份报告,大批量生产的疫苗mRNA的impurities 是显著高于在clinical trial 中使用的疫苗mRNA的。 这些impuritis 有可能就造成合成的不是spike protein, 而是随机的其他protein。甚至可能就是一些小分子RNA。 这些impurities 在哪针疫苗里,被谁打到, 引起什么问题,都是随机事件。 2) gentoxity:这个指的是对遗传物质及其功能造成的毒性/破坏。在报告里, 这部分就只有短短一段话, 大意是疫苗是mRNA,不会改变细胞核里的DNA, 所以assume没有什么问题。pfizer 没有做任何gentoxity的分子实验和动物实验。 但是genetics告诉我们, 不会改变细胞核DNA不等同于没有gentoxiy. 比如RNAi 就可以通过调控来silence 一些DNA 的表达。用RNAi来 knockout 一些基因, 这是实验室常规操作。 而RNAi是大概二十年前才发现的, 后来又陆陆续续发现一些小分子RNA以及他们对细胞的表达调控。 直到今天也还在探索, 没有谁敢说已经搞清楚细胞内DNA 和 RNA 的相互作用。 所以这一块真的是黑箱操作。 谁也不知道有没有影响, 影响多大。 其实完全可以做点动物实验, NGS 扫一下DNA, RNA 也better than nothing, 不知道为什么啥也没做。   3)lipid nanoparticle with PEG: 这个在体内的代谢是5个月,对于PEG 过敏的人就不说了, 就算不过敏, 外源物质在体内这么久, 对每个人的影响都不一样。 如果每隔几个月还要booster的话, 身体就等于长期要代谢这些外源物质。对于小孩子来说真的好吗?   4)胚胎着床失败率: 报告中提到的小鼠实验里, 疫苗组小鼠的胚胎着床失败率显著高于对照组, 但是又说虽然如此还是在正常范围。 我不是这方面的, 但是对于这个正常范围是怎么定的很困惑(期待其他牛人解读)。对于5-11岁的小男孩来说, 这个不算一个concern, 因为精子是新鲜产生的, 但是女孩的卵母细胞从出生起就在哪里了,只是一个一个发育成熟排出来而已。如果着床失败的原因是胚胎细胞受损,那么相应的, 有没有可能卵细胞/卵母细胞受到影响?
总结一下,疫苗对于阻止病毒传播作用微乎其微, 就算5-11岁的小孩都打了疫苗, 病毒还是该怎么传怎么传,对于阻断病毒在人群整体的传播并无显著益处。对于孩子自己, 如果是健康小孩,大多是无症状或者轻症自愈。走到需要住院那一步的,疫情高峰时100,000 中也才一个, 疫苗无非把那1个变成0.5 个。至于死亡, 大概是流感的1.5倍,也是小概率事件。换句话说, 对于5-11岁的小孩, covid引起的住院和死亡都是很小概率的事件,疫苗的作用就是把这个小概率变得更小一些, 这个有多重要呢, 每个人看法都不一样吧。与此同时,疫苗的短期副作用不可忽视,各种长期风险难以预测。孩子如果有基础病或者其他高风险的话,请遵医嘱,  FDA 通过5-11岁的疫苗就是make it available 所以高风险的小孩可以有疫苗可打。 孩子健康没有任何基础病的话, 家长不妨让子弹飞一会慎重决定,你在为别人做决定, 而这个人的一生还很漫长。父母一时的情绪/见解/方便不应该成为决定的因素, 决定应该基于孩子本身的健康和长远的利益。不管专家说什么官僚说什么, 尽量自己多了解信息根据自己的情况做risk vs benefit analysis。 成人都应该明白nothing is free, and free is the most expensive, that also applies to decision. 
我本人对疫苗不粉不黑,支持信息透明支持个人咨询决定,不支持mandate,不管是孩子还是大人。不支持疫苗政治化, 标签化。我自己的孩子不会打,觉得没必要, 孩子同学的家长我问下来,不打算给孩子打covid疫苗的是大多数 (tuition~40k私校, 家长大多 /高知/hightech/business owner )。
希望这些总结的信息有用, 也希望大家不要再因为打不打疫苗互相judge挖苦讽刺, 目前的疫苗就是有利有弊的, 既有利弊那每个人的得失考量就不会一样。
引用文献和数据: 1.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext 2.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2821%2902183-8/fulltext 3.https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-58680204 4.https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html 5.https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-on-Ages-0-18-Yea/nr4s-juj3 6.https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2020-2021/pediatric-flu-deaths-reach-new-high.htm 7.https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=laaL0_xKmmA
8.https://www.statnews.com/2021/10/26/pfizer-covid19-vaccine-kids-vrbpac-fda/ 9.https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/assessment-report/comirnaty-epar-public-assessment-report_en.pdf
update: 谢谢指出原帖里“但是在unvaccinated中清除速度更快所以在unvaccinated体内病毒感染细胞的感染率降低了。”中的typo。本意要表达的是vaccinated。已经更正。
sv_citizen 发表于 2021-11-05 20:43

楼主号称自己很好的专业背景, 但是至少对第一篇文章的理解就很有问题。
不想花太多时间废话。 但建议版上真的英文阅读还可以的还是自己去读读这篇短小的针对Anika Singanayagam新文章的review。文章建议Higher vaccination coverage rates need to be achieved because indirect protection from vaccinated to unvaccinated people remains suboptimal。 简单地说,就是疫苗只减轻症状不阻断传播, 谁打疫苗疫苗保护谁, 别指望别人都打了, 没打疫苗的就不会被传染。
COVID-19 vaccines that have obtained WHO emergency use listing appear to have high efficacy against severe disease and death, but lower efficacy against non-severe infections, and emerging evidence suggests that protection against non-severe disease declines faster following vaccination than that against severe disease and death. What is less clear is whether vaccination not only directly protects individuals but reduces the risk of infection among the contacts of vaccinated people, particularly with respect to the now dominant delta variant. Before the emergence of the delta variant, it was reported that after at least one dose of the mRNA vaccine by Pfizer or the adenoviral vector vaccine by Astra Zeneca, the risk of symptomatic cases in household contacts of vaccinated cases was about 50% lower than that among household contacts of unvaccinated cases.1 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib1 ] The now globally dominant delta variant is more transmissible2 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib2 ] and associated with reduced vaccine effectiveness, particularly against mild breakthrough infections, whereas protection against severe disease is not greatly reduced.3 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib3 ] Data are lacking on whether the effect of vaccination on transmission is lower for the delta variant and new insights on this are provided by a study done in the UK when the delta variant was the predominant strain, reported in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.4 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib4 ] • View related content for this article [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header ] Anika Singanayagam and colleagues did a carefully designed cohort study whereby 602 community contacts (household and non-household) identified via the UK contact tracing system and 471 COVID-19 index cases were enrolled through the Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts (ATACCC) study. These participants contributed 8145 upper respiratory tract samples for up to 20 days, regardless of symptoms. The study had two study arms, with the first group enrolling contacts only, and the second group enrolling both index and contact cases at a time when the delta variant was predominant. What is unique about this study is that both vaccinated and unvaccinated contacts were included, thereby allowing for stratified analyses by vaccination status, both for the index cases and the contacts. To address the primary study outcome to establish the secondary attack rates (SARs) in household contacts, the vaccination statuses for 232 contacts exposed to 162 epidemiologically linked delta-variant-infected index cases were analysed. The SARs in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% in vaccinated and 38% in unvaccinated contacts. These results underpin the key message that vaccinated contacts are better protected than the unvaccinated. All breakthrough infections were mild, and no hospitalisations and deaths were observed. But these results also highlight that breakthrough infections continue to occur in the vaccinated, with an attack rate of 25%. Time since vaccination in fully vaccination contacts was longer for those infected than those uninfected, suggesting that waning of protection might have occurred over time, although teasing out general waning versus reduced vaccine effectiveness due to delta is challenging owing to so many confounding factors. SAR among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases (25%; 95% CI 15–35) was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (23%; 15–31). Obviously, infection might also have occurred beyond the household level with unknown exposure in the community. Indeed, genomic and virological analysis confirmed only three index-contact pairs. Owing to the small sample size, the authors were not able to establish the vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic infections versus symptomatic infections. This limitation together with the unconfirmed source of transmission in many of these index-contact pairs, suggests that the low SAR reported here should be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, the findings raise concern that the effect of vaccination on reducing transmission might be lower for the delta variant compared with the variants that circulated in the UK before the emergence of delta. Infectiousness of breakthrough infections can be measured by viral densities. Higher SARS-CoV-2 viral density in the upper airways of people infected with the virus are thought to increase transmission to household members.5 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext# ],  6 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext# ] If vaccines reduce viral density in those who do become infected despite vaccination, it would probably lead to lower infectiousness and less onward transmission. Hence, the authors compared the viral kinetics in breakthrough delta variant infections in vaccinated people with delta variant infections in unvaccinated people. They report that peak viral loads showed a faster decline in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated people, although peak viral loads were similar for unvaccinated and vaccinated people. Although preventing severe disease and deaths remains the primary public health goal in the acute phase of the pandemic, and is still being achieved by available COVID-19 vaccines despite the emergence of the delta variant, addressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a crucial additional consideration. Reducing transmission is necessary to reduce virus circulation, reach herd immunity and end this tragic pandemic. This study confirms that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and also accelerates viral clearance in the context of the delta variant. However, this study unfortunately also highlights that the vaccine effect on reducing transmission is minimal in the context of delta variant circulation. These findings have immediate public health implications. Higher vaccination coverage rates need to be achieved because indirect protection from vaccinated to unvaccinated people remains suboptimal. The question of whether booster doses will improve the impact on transmission should be addressed as a top priority.7 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib7 ] Research efforts should be directed towards enhancing existing vaccines or developing new vaccines that also protect against asymptomatic infections and onward transmission. Until we have such vaccines, public health and social measures will still need to be tailored towards mitigating community and household transmission in order to keep the pandemic at bay. AWS is a member of The Lancet Commission on COVID-19, and a consultant to WHO. The author alone is responsible for the views expressed here and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policies, or views of The Lancet Commission or WHO. I declare no competing interests.
m
msqs
不是所有人都会得新馆的,不感染的话,因为新馆得心肌炎的概率就是0。打了,就是100%拿不出来了。

freys 发表于 2021-11-08 22:36

现在的统一宣传口径是大家都迟早会得,没人能幸免,所以要打,防重症。而且得过了还会再得,所以要反复打。这个病毒是永远跟人类共存了😂
h
hnlaser
不是所有人都会得新馆的,不感染的话,因为新馆得心肌炎的概率就是0。打了,就是100%拿不出来了。

freys 发表于 2021-11-08 22:36

计算新冠心肌炎的概率似乎应该用染上的概率乘以新冠致心肌炎的概率
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hnlaser
现在的统一宣传口径是大家都迟早会得,没人能幸免,所以要打,防重症。而且得过了还会再得,所以要反复打。这个病毒是永远跟人类共存了😂
msqs 发表于 2021-11-08 22:39

但是随着时间也许会有越来越多的新药或者旧药发现对新冠致心肌炎有抑制作用?
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superSuper123
不想让孩子打,想等等看,但队友要给孩子现在打。。
f
freys
但是随着时间也许会有越来越多的新药或者旧药发现对新冠致心肌炎有抑制作用?
hnlaser 发表于 2021-11-08 22:46

随着时间的推移肯定会有更多有效又安全的药物被承认,被推荐,同时疫苗的副作用也会更加清晰。再等半年,都会有更多信息,更好的做决定。现在打就是做赌注。
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freys
楼主号称自己很好的专业背景, 但是至少对第一篇文章的理解就很有问题。
不想花太多时间废话。 但建议版上真的英文阅读还可以的还是自己去读读这篇短小的针对Anika Singanayagam新文章的review。文章建议Higher vaccination coverage rates need to be achieved because indirect protection from vaccinated to unvaccinated people remains suboptimal。 简单地说,就是疫苗只减轻症状不阻断传播, 谁打疫苗疫苗保护谁, 别指望别人都打了, 没打疫苗的就不会被传染。
COVID-19 vaccines that have obtained WHO emergency use listing appear to have high efficacy against severe disease and death, but lower efficacy against non-severe infections, and emerging evidence suggests that protection against non-severe disease declines faster following vaccination than that against severe disease and death. What is less clear is whether vaccination not only directly protects individuals but reduces the risk of infection among the contacts of vaccinated people, particularly with respect to the now dominant delta variant. Before the emergence of the delta variant, it was reported that after at least one dose of the mRNA vaccine by Pfizer or the adenoviral vector vaccine by Astra Zeneca, the risk of symptomatic cases in household contacts of vaccinated cases was about 50% lower than that among household contacts of unvaccinated cases.1 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib1 ] The now globally dominant delta variant is more transmissible2 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib2 ] and associated with reduced vaccine effectiveness, particularly against mild breakthrough infections, whereas protection against severe disease is not greatly reduced.3 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib3 ] Data are lacking on whether the effect of vaccination on transmission is lower for the delta variant and new insights on this are provided by a study done in the UK when the delta variant was the predominant strain, reported in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.4 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib4 ] • View related content for this article [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header ] Anika Singanayagam and colleagues did a carefully designed cohort study whereby 602 community contacts (household and non-household) identified via the UK contact tracing system and 471 COVID-19 index cases were enrolled through the Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts (ATACCC) study. These participants contributed 8145 upper respiratory tract samples for up to 20 days, regardless of symptoms. The study had two study arms, with the first group enrolling contacts only, and the second group enrolling both index and contact cases at a time when the delta variant was predominant. What is unique about this study is that both vaccinated and unvaccinated contacts were included, thereby allowing for stratified analyses by vaccination status, both for the index cases and the contacts. To address the primary study outcome to establish the secondary attack rates (SARs) in household contacts, the vaccination statuses for 232 contacts exposed to 162 epidemiologically linked delta-variant-infected index cases were analysed. The SARs in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% in vaccinated and 38% in unvaccinated contacts. These results underpin the key message that vaccinated contacts are better protected than the unvaccinated. All breakthrough infections were mild, and no hospitalisations and deaths were observed. But these results also highlight that breakthrough infections continue to occur in the vaccinated, with an attack rate of 25%. Time since vaccination in fully vaccination contacts was longer for those infected than those uninfected, suggesting that waning of protection might have occurred over time, although teasing out general waning versus reduced vaccine effectiveness due to delta is challenging owing to so many confounding factors. SAR among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases (25%; 95% CI 15–35) was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (23%; 15–31). Obviously, infection might also have occurred beyond the household level with unknown exposure in the community. Indeed, genomic and virological analysis confirmed only three index-contact pairs. Owing to the small sample size, the authors were not able to establish the vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic infections versus symptomatic infections. This limitation together with the unconfirmed source of transmission in many of these index-contact pairs, suggests that the low SAR reported here should be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, the findings raise concern that the effect of vaccination on reducing transmission might be lower for the delta variant compared with the variants that circulated in the UK before the emergence of delta. Infectiousness of breakthrough infections can be measured by viral densities. Higher SARS-CoV-2 viral density in the upper airways of people infected with the virus are thought to increase transmission to household members.5 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext# ],  6 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext# ] If vaccines reduce viral density in those who do become infected despite vaccination, it would probably lead to lower infectiousness and less onward transmission. Hence, the authors compared the viral kinetics in breakthrough delta variant infections in vaccinated people with delta variant infections in unvaccinated people. They report that peak viral loads showed a faster decline in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated people, although peak viral loads were similar for unvaccinated and vaccinated people. Although preventing severe disease and deaths remains the primary public health goal in the acute phase of the pandemic, and is still being achieved by available COVID-19 vaccines despite the emergence of the delta variant, addressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a crucial additional consideration. Reducing transmission is necessary to reduce virus circulation, reach herd immunity and end this tragic pandemic. This study confirms that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and also accelerates viral clearance in the context of the delta variant. However, this study unfortunately also highlights that the vaccine effect on reducing transmission is minimal in the context of delta variant circulation. These findings have immediate public health implications. Higher vaccination coverage rates need to be achieved because indirect protection from vaccinated to unvaccinated people remains suboptimal. The question of whether booster doses will improve the impact on transmission should be addressed as a top priority.7 [ 链接:www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext#bib7 ] Research efforts should be directed towards enhancing existing vaccines or developing new vaccines that also protect against asymptomatic infections and onward transmission. Until we have such vaccines, public health and social measures will still need to be tailored towards mitigating community and household transmission in order to keep the pandemic at bay. AWS is a member of The Lancet Commission on COVID-19, and a consultant to WHO. The author alone is responsible for the views expressed here and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policies, or views of The Lancet Commission or WHO. I declare no competing interests.
foreverf 发表于 2021-11-08 22:37

如果疫苗有效率不那么好,不阻断传染,又降低很快。为啥还要提higher coverage?什么情况下“疫苗是解决问题的唯一办法”这个假设能被falsify?不能出什么不利于疫苗的data就explain away吧?这就跟信miracle,结果没成,然后说你信的还不够坚定,是一样的。疫苗不是宗教,要看data调整对它的看法。
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7/ Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States
g
gingeraleye
给楼主点赞。本人不是生物或医学专业,一直也都是pro-vaccine, 但是自从FDA批准5-11 Pfizer  后,听了不少专业人士的播客和采访,恶补疫苗的知识。根据现在的数据和风险衡量, 决定不给孩子打。 只是因为在加州,可能还是要面临K-12疫苗强制令,比较郁闷。   楼主说的很对,作为理工科生,深知数据就是任人打扮的小姑娘。  不管你的立场如何,总可以找到支持自己的data和evidence。所以只能多听各方面摆事实讲道理,自己做出结论。   疫苗的确可以大幅降低感染率和重症、死亡率。对于成年人,或是新冠高危人群,收益大于风险,打疫苗是明智的选择。   但是不可否认,疫苗的风险和收益是和年龄有极大关系的。英国公布过数据,一个打过两针的4、50岁的中年人,得covid致死的风险不比一个没打过疫苗的儿童低。COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 36 (publishing.service.gov.uk)   疫苗的主要意义是什么:降低重症/死亡率。不能完全防止感染covid,但是可以把新冠变成一场感冒。 如果为了追求增加中和抗体,降低感染率,而不断追加booster shot,这种做法不是所有人都赞同的。因为所有疫苗的抗体最后都会ween out, 关键还是激活了免疫记忆,为打重症这样的大仗做准备的。 还有一个小的注意点是到底现在让大家打的是 3rd shot 还是 booster shot.  如果是3rd shot,理论上可以解释为了加固免疫记忆,和booster shot 是不一样的。   mRNA疫苗(尤其是第二针后)会增加16-29岁的尤其是男性青少年患心肌炎的风险。虽然这是非常小概率的事件,但人们的担忧还是合理的,因为这个年龄段的男孩本来感染covid的几率也不大。   至于5-11岁疫苗注射引发的心肌炎风险,因为只有不到3000的trial cases,所以得不到统计显著的结论。所以现在是根据高年龄组数据“extrapolation",另外因为剂量降至1/3,所以心肌炎的风险大概率是更小的。   很遗憾,就算我听了不下十个小时的科普播客,好像对mRNA疫苗的副作用都集中在心肌炎上,没有涉及长期的副作用,这其实才是家长对自己孩子注射mRNA疫苗最大的concern. 但是现在不可能有任何长期的数据,所以家长的担忧尤为合理的,加上儿童对covid似乎有天然免疫 (even with Delta),亦或者是感染了也是无症状 ,强制儿童疫苗的确是不得人心。
1.     PFIZER VAX FOR KIDS 5-11: FDA DECISION, EXPLAINE https://youtu.be/kLMYBu9cuAs The Truth About Myocarditis, Kids, Boosters, Natural Immunity, & More (w/Dr. Paul Offit) https://youtu.be/z3wJZ9zh5a8 3.     BOOSTER SHOTS, KIDS & MASKS, VACCINE MANDATES & MORE (W/DR. VINAY PRASAD) https://youtu.be/Fe9boK1jKCM Vincent Racaniello: Viruses and Vaccines | Lex Fridman Podcast <iframe width="560" height="315" src=https://www.youtube.com/embed/G433fa01oMU title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Joe Rogan Interview with Dr. Sanjay Gupta <iframe src=https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6rAgS1KiUvLRNP4HfUePpA?utm_source=generator width="100%" height="232" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture"></iframe>





梦里一生
我其实一直搞不明白,为什么依据一开始的毒株开发出来的疫苗可以大力强制,用以对抗经过了多重变异的毒株? 还有CDC自己都没办法100%疫苗,怎么可以要求别人?
f
foreverf
如果疫苗有效率不那么好,不阻断传染,又降低很快。为啥还要提higher coverage?什么情况下“疫苗是解决问题的唯一办法”这个假设能被falsify?不能出什么不利于疫苗的data就explain away吧?这就跟信miracle,结果没成,然后说你信的还不够坚定,是一样的。疫苗不是宗教,要看data调整对它的看法。
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7/ Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States

freys 发表于 2021-11-09 00:14

已经说得很清楚了。你也没交学费, 我没必要再给你讲。
g
gingeraleye
回复 437楼freys的帖子
同意。 其实这篇文章的研究数据和结果是很客观的 confirm 疫苗降低感染,减轻症状 highlight 疫苗不能阻隔Delta的传染 但是作者因此得出的结论就很主观了,就是: 不能指望他人打疫苗保护自己,不想得covid就得自己打疫苗。 这个作为个人层面的抉择完全可以理解,但是以此去影响policy making就不对了。
Again,每个人得covid的概率是不一样的,并且承担得covid风险的能力也是不一样的。不能Assume每个人都因为怕得covid而去选择打疫苗或者booster,因为每个人的健康顾虑是不一样的,要相信成年人能做出对自己和家人负责的决定。我不反对打疫苗,但也不反对这是individual choice。特别是Booster和儿童疫苗,都不应该强制。
其实,既然疫苗不能阻隔传染,那个群体免疫的模型也就摇摇欲坠了。
不幸的是层主的思路也被作者带着跑了
C
Challenger2021
我今天狗了一下心肌炎。
永久性心肌炎平均存活期是5年,好的11年,这比癌症都吓人。这都什么父母,争着抢着带孩子去打?本来小孩得新冠的后果和普通流感也差不了多少。
投胎是门艺术。

yueceiling 发表于 2021-11-08 17:13

正解,我有同学心肌炎,年纪轻轻就突然走了
你我对面不相识
我就问一句 如果现在急诊室里都是没打的 为啥要推第三针?怎么知道前两针无效的?
C
CleverBeaver
我们村一些民间活动也开始强制娃的疫苗了