French Scientist: lifespan of Covid-19 antibodies Very Short -

大约 5 年

repubblica 是意大利中間偏左媒體，并不是科學雜志，原文翻譯如下： Coronavirus, the scientist who advises Macron: "We too towards Phase 2 but the immune system is too few, risk of recurrence" PARIS - France has also begun to reflect on phase 2. And one opinion that counts is that of Jean-François Delfraissy. The French immunologist leads the scientific committee that advises Emmanuel Macron in the health emergency. Delfraissy, 71 years old, was a luminary of AIDS research, in the front line against Ebola. His group of "essays" also includes an anthropologist and a sociologist. "It is important to have a multi-disciplinary approach and evaluate parameters that are not only scientific," explains Delfraissy. "I know from experience that every health crisis brings with it the risk of a political and social crisis". The immunologist explains to Repubblica what are his recommendations to start the end of the lockdown started on March 17. With a wish: "France and Italy must agree on a series of shared measures at this very delicate stage. It is one of the keys to success". Yet the French government hesitated for a long time before following Italy in the choice of the lockdown. Was there a feeling of superiority? "I have never felt superior to Italy, I have no lessons to give to my Italian colleagues, on the contrary I must receive them. Personally, I realized the extreme gravity of the epidemic just seeing the situation in Lombardy where there is medical and scientific excellence. I immediately understood that France would have the same fate. And in fact when our committee took office on 10 March I immediately told Macron that the only way forward was confinement". Did the government consider other options? "I don't answer to the political debate. I can instead say that my opinion was tranchant. And I'm not proud of it because I know what sacrifice was imposed on the people. Had we had a daily capacity of 100,000 tests, I might have suggested we act differently. It wasn't like that. On March 10th, France's capacity was 3,000 tests a day. Confinement was not the best solution. It was the least worst." Did the amount of tests in Germany make a difference? "It did, and all the better for the Germans. Today, France's daily test capacity has risen to 30,000 a day. The goal is to reach 100,000 by the end of the month. The initial shortage dictated the choice of confinement and still weighs in the duration". Your recommendation was to close the country until the end of April. Will it go further? "We will only talk about dates when we have the tools to deal with the increase in contagion and the sick that will start again as soon as the confinement loosens. There is no doubt about it: the epidemic will start running again. And we will have to be ready, contrary to what happened the first time". There is talk of openness by region, age, profession... What's the plan? "It's the ongoing debate between our committee, the government and Elysium. I can only tell you that we will not go from black to white. There will be shades of grey. We have calculated the people most at risk, including the elderly, heart patients, the obese and other diseases. There are 17 million French people. This figure already makes you understand the complexity of the situation". Are we beginning to know how many French people are immunized? "We have the first serological studies and unfortunately they are not encouraging. In the areas most affected by the epidemic we see that immunity is around 10%. From what I know it's the same in Lombardy. It's much less than we expected, and hoped for. We are a long way from natural immunity in the population. But there's another problem." What is it? "This virus is very peculiar. We've found that the lifespan of the antibodies protecting against Covid-19 is very short. And we're seeing more and more cases of recurrence in people who have already had a first infection." So no one is really protected against the coronavirus, not even those who have already fallen ill? "It looks that way. That's why our committee no longer recommends an immune license, a sort of pass for people who have had a first infection." When will France be ready for phase 2? "There are two indicators to look at. When intensive care is no longer under pressure, the medical staff will be out of breath. And when we have the ability to test massively, isolating the positives and tracking them. A prediction, only theoretical, is between the beginning and mid-May." Is your model the Korean one? "Yes, but South Korea didn't just do cell phone tracking. "It also mobilized 20,000 people who investigated and broke the transmission chains. Technological innovation must be accompanied by a human effort." Any reservations about tracking, electronic surveillance? "Only temporarily, on a voluntary basis and within strict rules. France is working with Germany on an application. The ideal would be to extend the collaboration to other countries like Italy". Can France and Italy make different choices about timing and ways on phase 2? "That would be a disaster. I say this not only at the health level, but also to avoid a more serious social and political crisis. If we are coordinated it will be much easier to get measures such as tracking or isolation of positive patients in ad hoc facilities accepted. Our citizens are watching what is happening in neighbouring countries. They would not understand contradictory measures. Moreover, a certain uniformity is essential to start travelling again, to leave the borders open". Do you think that the European level has given priority to the economic response? "Unfortunately so, and we all suffer the consequences. Until a few days ago the European countries were fighting among themselves over masks in China. We decided on confinement without coordination between European countries. Now it is essential not to repeat the same mistake. This is the meaning of my appeal to Italy but also to the other countries of the founding nucleus of Europe". Speaking of masks, why does the French government still not recommend wearing them? "Both the Oms and the government struggled to admit the truth, that there were not enough masks for everyone. I am convinced that masks are one of the essential tools to get out of confinement". Do they have to be mandatory? "Any Frenchman should have them and wear them if he wishes. That is not the case today." Even in France there is controversy against runners or people who break the rules. What do you think? "Confinement is respected by the vast majority of Frenchmen. I also see that it's not 100%, but let's remember that it's a delicate balance. France is not China, and I repeat that health crises always carry a political and social risk that should not be underestimated. Has the confinement given the epidemiological results you expected? "We are on schedule. At the beginning of March the R0 rate was 3.5, today it has dropped to around 1 and we think we will drop again between 0.7 and 0.8 at the beginning of May, when we can start talking about the end of confinement. But only if we are also ready on tests, digital and human tracking, patient isolation, masks". Will summer help us? "All the pandemics of the last century have subsided during the summer season. This time we see that the virus is spreading even in hot areas. So be careful. The other thing we see from the history of epidemics is that we have to prepare for a virus rebound in the fall." Should we expect only bad surprises? "I'm optimistic by nature. I think in the end human intelligence will win against the virus. And when I talk about intelligence, I am not talking about us experts or politics, but about the citizens who have to take up this challenge, and they are already starting to do so. During the AIDS emergency there were 45 million deaths, but we managed to find a response in both developed and southern countries. Having said that, there is some good news". I beg your pardon? "The virus has only undergone minor mutations in the last four months, it's quite stable. "And that helps the vaccine race, which is unprecedented for speed. I'm convinced there'll be a first vaccine by the end of the year. And in the meantime, perhaps there will be positive news about therapies and hopefully forms of prophylaxis".

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