白宫国家贸易委员会主任纳瓦罗警告新冠疫情的备忘录流露出来了

s
sbtelf
楼主 (北美华人网)
前两天有报道说纳瓦罗和费奇大吵,现在再看这些备忘录,发现整个疫情中他可能是最清醒最正确的人。疫情过后,川普对他的信任很可能会进一步提高。

Navarro memos warning of mass coronavirus death circulated in January

Jonathan Swan, Margaret Talev


Image from a memo to President Trump
In late January, President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, according to memos obtained by Axios. The state of play: By late February, Navarro was even more alarmed, and he warned his colleagues, in another memo, that up to 2 million Americans could die of the virus.
Navarro's grim estimates are set out in two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and addressed to the National Security Council, the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to the president. The NSC circulated both memos around the White House and multiple agencies.
In the first memo, which the New York Times was first to report on, Navarro makes his case for "an immediate travel ban on China."
The second lays the groundwork for supplemental requests from Congress, with the warning: "This is NOT a time for penny-pinching or horse trading on the Hill."
Why it matters: The president quickly restricted travel from China, moved to delay re-entry of American travelers who could be infected, and dispatched his team to work with Congress on stimulus funds.
But Trump was far slower to publicly acknowledge the sort of scenarios Navarro had put in writing.
One senior administration official who received Navarro's memos said at the time they were skeptical of his motives and thus his warnings: “The January travel memo struck me as an alarmist attempt to bring attention to Peter’s anti-China agenda while presenting an artificially limited range of policy options."
"The supplemental memo lacked any basis for its projections, which led some staff to worry that it could needlessly rattle markets and may not direct funding where it was truly needed."
Navarro declined to comment for this story. Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon defended Navarro's motives, calling the memos "prophetic" and saying Navarro was forced to put his concerns in writing because "there was total blockage to get these facts in front of the President of the United States."
The "naivete, arrogance and ignorance" of White House advisers who disagreed with Navarro "put the country and the world in jeopardy," Bannon said, adding that Navarro was sidelined from the task force after the memo.
"In this Kafkaesque nightmare, nobody would pay attention to him or the facts."
The Jan. 29 memo set out two stark choices: "Aggressive Containment versus No Containment."
Navarro compared cost estimates for the choices and wrote that the Council of Economic Advisers' estimates for stopping travel from China to the U.S. would be $2.9 billion per month. If the virus turned out to be a pandemic, that travel ban could extend 12 months and cost the U.S. $34.6 billion.
Doing nothing (the "No Containment" option) could range from "zero economic costs" to $5.7 trillion depending on the lethality of the virus.
On the high end, he estimated a scenario in which the coronavirus could kill 543,000 Americans.
The Feb. 23 memo did not advertise its author as did the first, but it was written by Navarro and distributed to numerous officials through the NSC. It was titled as a memorandum to the president via the offices of the national security adviser, chief of staff and COVID-19 task force, and the subject line described it as a request for supplemental appropriation.
It began: "There is an increasing probability of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic that could infect as many as 100 million Americans, with a loss of life of as many as 1-2 million souls."
He called for an "immediate supplemental appropriation of at least $3 billion" to support efforts at prevention, treatment, inoculation and diagnostics.
He described expected needs for "Personal Protective Equipment" for health care workers and secondary workers in facilities such as elder care and skilled nursing. He estimated that over a four-to-six-month period, "We can expect to need at least a billion face masks, 200,000 Tyvek suits, and 11,000 ventilator circuits, and 25,000 PAPRs (powered air-purifying respirators)."
Navarro clashed this past weekend with Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, over how widely to promote the use of malaria drug hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus.
But the January and February memos reveal a more substantial advocacy on his part, with detailed health and economic calculations meant to grab and hold the president's attention.
Politico first reported in late February about the existence of memos from Navarro to White House officials, while their details had not been published.
Our thought bubble: Axios' health care editor Sam Baker says Navarro's concern about the severity while acknowledging the speculative nature of modeling viruses was largely correct.
"These memos place a very big emphasis on banning travel specifically from China —which, of course, Trump did," Baker says. But by Jan. 29, there were confirmed cases in 15 countries, including the U.S.
"This is not to say they're a bad idea, only that this is why public-health experts don't lean as heavily on travel restrictions. People come into the U.S. from a lot of places, and with two globalized countries, simply stopping people coming in from Wuhan was not bad but it shouldn't be shocking that it was insufficient."
Flashback: "It's going to have a very good ending for us," Trump said of the coronavirus in a speech on Jan. 30.
In a Feb. 24 tweet, he said it was "very much under control" and that the stock market is "starting to look very good to me."
The World Health Organization declared it a pandemic on March 11.
On March 17, the president said, "I've felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."
Page 1 of a Jan. 29 memoPage 2 of a Jan. 29 memoPage 3 of a Jan. 29 memoPage 4 of a Jan, 29 memoPage 5 of a Jan. 29 memoPage 6 of a Jan. 29 memoPage 7 of a Jan. 29 memoPage 1 of a Feb. 23 memoPage 2 of a Feb. 23 memoPage 3 of a Feb. 23 memoPage 4 of a Feb. 23 memo

 

🔥 最新回帖

c
cyc
127 楼
幸好有他,不然美国更惨
要管3721 发表于 4/7/2020 2:27:45 PM
j
jennifer111ar
126 楼
不错
恋上樱桃
125 楼
明確一下,Fauci和納瓦羅爭執的是氯喹應用問題,不是防疫問題
happlen發表於4/7/2020 1:00:13 PM
w
wangbing
124 楼
这样川普在把所有问题都推给中国就不行了
I
ILuvSunshine
123 楼
1/29第一次预警,2/23说可能120万美国人遇难。这就是说中国数据造假的结论。那要按照某些人的逻辑乘100,1000呢?

 

🛋️ 沙发板凳

i
initium
甩锅大戏渐入佳境
f
fubaobao
希望他被重用。
h
happlen
明确一下,Fauci和纳瓦罗争执的是氯喹应用问题,不是防疫问题
l
lylo
这才是国士无双,(哈)佛学院确实出人才,服了。我再也不指责大家推藤了。

他计算的需要11000呼吸机也是对,美国本来有20000的储备,现在还剩10000, 刚好用掉10000左右。难怪Trump敢和哭墨州长的四万呼吸机打擂台。

这真有诸葛亮带猪队友(卫生部门)的感觉,任你妙计千条,全给你执行得一塌糊涂。- Fauci反对travel ban. CDC的做不出合格的测试,FDA拖延各种批准。
v
vivilxw
他说的不错呢
h
hcrab
明确一下,Fauci和纳瓦罗争执的是氯喹应用问题,不是防疫问题
happlen 发表于 4/7/2020 1:00:13 PM


不只是氯喹问题,连以前的断航问题都翻出来了
l
lylo
明确一下,Fauci和纳瓦罗争执的是氯喹应用问题,不是防疫问题
happlen 发表于 4/7/2020 1:00:13 PM


一月底Fauci反对Travel Ban, Navarro说的。可见卫生部门确实准备不足。
S
San1ba4
回复 8楼lylo的帖子 这个人不错👍👍。 Fauci 这个垃圾还有老脸出来,要是日本人或韩国人可能就自杀谢罪了
j
jiaru0099
哦? 现在川普甩锅的对象是福西老爷子了?。。。 没有伏羲老爷子站川普身边。。。 你看看他的信任度跌成shi。。。 啧啧,没下限。。。 。。。。。。
c
chillywind


一月底Fauci反对Travel Ban, Navarro说的。可见卫生部门确实准备不足。

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 1:04:53 PM

Fauci不算卫生部门的人吧。他也不是cdc的, NIH 充其量是个研究机构吧。
l
lylo
回复 8楼lylo的帖子

这个人不错👍👍。
Fauci 这个垃圾还有老脸出来,要是日本人或韩国人可能就自杀谢罪了
San1ba4 发表于 4/7/2020 1:12:29 PM


这倒不至于,有了诸葛亮,老黄忠也得用。不过得让诸葛亮出计策,黄忠上阵拼杀。要倒过来,那就糟糕了。
锦鲤小仙女
Nyt和wp都是说fauci支持中国travel ban,他本人亲口说过的。以及trump ban欧洲之前的两个礼拜fauci就要求ban欧洲了,也是经济团队不答应,活活门户大开了半个月
o
oceanmist
回复 8楼lylo的帖子

这个人不错👍👍。
Fauci 这个垃圾还有老脸出来,要是日本人或韩国人可能就自杀谢罪了
San1ba4 发表于 4/7/2020 1:12:29 PM

你这么说过分了,fauci的方法可能不是最优的,但是出问题后他给出了当前最可行的方式。谁都不是神,没必要苛责。他也想多测,但是现实执行起来都有难度,不能有一点问题就破口大骂咒人死。
m
might
这个算是惊天大料,基本解释了到现在的唯一两个谜团: 1、为什么川普当初这么快就禁航中国? 2、为什么之后CDC完全没有反应。 1是纳瓦罗用尽了自己的政治能量,影响了川普的决定。 2是对禁航中国的决定,白宫内外反对声音很大。CDC或者觉得自己被overrule了,或者被某些势力影响了,所以就一直处于撂挑子的状态。 我看川普和纳瓦罗,可能要召回班农了。 到最后还是川普核心的American First集团,救了美国。
h
handsugar
听过Navarro的旧访谈 on a different topic 思路非常清晰 看问题很透 president advisor 当之无愧
g
girlinblack
这个算是惊天大料,基本解释了到现在的唯一两个谜团:
1、为什么川普当初这么快就禁航中国?
2、为什么之后CDC完全没有反应。

1是纳瓦罗用尽了自己的政治能量,影响了川普的决定。

2是对禁航中国的决定,白宫内外反对声音很大。CDC或者觉得自己被overrule了,或者被某些势力影响了,所以就一直处于撂挑子的状态。

我看川普和纳瓦罗,可能要召回班农了。
到最后还是川普核心的American First集团,救了美国。
might 发表于 4/7/2020 1:21:23 PM

救了美国???禁航中国现在看来做了和没做一样好吧。
l
lylo

Fauci不算卫生部门的人吧。他也不是cdc的, NIH 充其量是个研究机构吧。

chillywind 发表于 4/7/2020 1:14:52 PM


HHS下面都可以算卫生部门吧。
z
zhegufei

救了美国???禁航中国现在看来做了和没做一样好吧。

girlinblack 发表于 4/7/2020 1:23:02 PM


推迟了1个月。
j
jianzhiqi1234

Why it matters: The president quickly restricted travel from China, moved to delay re-entry of American travelers who could be infected, and dispatched his team to work with Congress on stimulus funds.
But Trump was far slower to publicly acknowledge the sort of scenarios Navarro had put in writing.

One senior administration official who received Navarro's memos said at the time they were skeptical of his motives and thus his warnings: “The January travel memo struck me as an alarmist attempt to bring attention to Peter’s anti-China agenda while presenting an artificially limited range of policy options."


可怜,不被人理解的预言者。为什么白宫官员这么SB
Trump听纳瓦罗的断航了,然后研究激励资金,但是大概是出于经济考虑没有公开他的预测
l
lylo
Nyt和wp都是说fauci支持中国travel ban,他本人亲口说过的。以及trump ban欧洲之前的两个礼拜fauci就要求ban欧洲了,也是经济团队不答应,活活门户大开了半个月
锦鲤小仙女 发表于 4/7/2020 1:17:52 PM


Fauci后来是支持中国Travel Ban的,三月还给Trump站过台。但一月底的时候是很有可能反对中国Travel Ban的,毕竟数据不明显。Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心。
A
Acrysol
纳瓦罗本来就是床铺最心腹的人之一吧。不是纽约客谣言说他的博士是床铺大学给他的。[tuzki10]
h
hcrab

你这么说过分了,fauci的方法可能不是最优的,但是出问题后他给出了当前最可行的方式。谁都不是神,没必要苛责。他也想多测,但是现实执行起来都有难度,不能有一点问题就破口大骂咒人死。

oceanmist 发表于 4/7/2020 1:18:41 PM


fauci初期犯的错也不少
l
lylo
纳瓦罗本来就是床铺最心腹的人之一吧。不是纽约客谣言说他的博士是床铺大学给他的。[tuzki10]
Acrysol 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:46 PM


佛学院毕业的啊。
j
jiaru0099


推迟了1个月。

zhegufei 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:14 PM

啥也没干的一个月。。。
没啥屁用。。。
e
eriecase
不禁航二月就沦陷了 哪里能拖到三月 十年签涌进来一堆 也是同一堆人抢着进来 后来抢着回去 没办法党国体制下的自保
救了美国???禁航中国现在看来做了和没做一样好吧。 girlinblack 发表于 4/7/2020 1:23:00 PM
b
bonton
美版张文宏?
锦鲤小仙女


Fauci后来是支持中国Travel Ban的,三月还给Trump站过台。但一月底的时候是很有可能反对中国Travel Ban的,毕竟数据不明显。Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心。

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:29 PM

WP和nyt也说了,测试跟不上他们上面拿不到准确数据,只能公开这么说了。fauci二月末的时候发觉测试有问题要求fda和cdc搞明白这件事的呀。navarro这么牛怎么没推荐ban欧洲?现在纽约这个惨样难道不是ban欧洲太晚了?
o
ocmom
越来越多人关注fauci和Bill gates的关系。。
水母

WP和nyt也说了,测试跟不上他们上面拿不到准确数据,只能公开这么说了。fauci二月末的时候发觉测试有问题要求fda和cdc搞明白这件事的呀。navarro这么牛怎么没推荐ban欧洲?现在纽约这个惨样难道不是ban欧洲太晚了?

锦鲤小仙女 发表于 4/7/2020 1:43:07 PM


测试跟不上就该老实跟公众说得不到数据,不要不负责任的说LOW RISK
致远
最喜欢这样的memo,美国的这些内部文件的质量,绝对强悍。
o
ocmom
纳瓦罗本来就是床铺最心腹的人之一吧。不是纽约客谣言说他的博士是床铺大学给他的。[tuzki10]
Acrysol 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:46 PM

Navarro went to Tufts University on a full academic scholarship,[9] graduating in 1972 with a Bachelor of Arts degree. He then spent three years in the U.S. Peace Corps, serving in Thailand.[7][13] He earned a Master of Public Administration from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government in 1979, and a PhD in Economics from Harvard under the supervision of Richard E. Caves in 1986.[13]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Navarro
A
Acrysol
回复 24楼lylo的帖子 哈哈,我是说反话的。看看这个链接 Peter Navarro’s Ph.D. Revealed to Be from Trump University https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/peter-navarros-phd-revealed-to-be-from-trump-university
p
purplelavender

最喜欢这样的memo,美国的这些内部文件的质量,绝对强悍。
致远 发表于 4/7/2020 1:48:00 PM
A
Acrysol
回复 32楼ocmom的帖子 看我下面这个帖子。我开玩笑说反话的, 我说了是“谣言”啊。
s
squirrel40
甩完国外甩国内 甩完地方甩下属 川普真是街舞高手
j
jiaru0099
甩完国外甩国内
甩完地方甩下属
川普真是街舞高手
squirrel40 发表于 4/7/2020 1:56:57 PM

哈哈,
我笑了。。。
致远
回复 32楼ocmom的帖子

看我下面这个帖子。我开玩笑说反话的, 我说了是“谣言”啊。
Acrysol 发表于 4/7/2020 1:52:26 PM


我发现 老美认为 rocket science 很厉害似的,难道不是 量子力学之类的物理?
e
eriecase
非集权制国家 联邦和州政府都是按照cdc和hhs的guideline制定防疫措施 这边狠信科学家 科学家团队一致认为不怕 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/
甩完国外甩国内 甩完地方甩下属 川普真是街舞高手 squirrel40 发表于 4/7/2020 1:56:00 PM
s
squirrel40
非集权制国家 联邦和州政府都是按照cdc和hhs的guideline制定防疫措施 这边狠信科学家 科学家团队一致认为不怕

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/



eriecase 发表于 4/7/2020 2:02:33 PM

最不怕的是川普御用媒体fox. 知道3月9号还在说死亡人数和流感比差远了。
Fox是尊重科学的媒体?
r
relay
Peter Navarro 是真清醒的人。 我记得他是鹰派吧? 爆出来3M中国工厂被没收也是他。 希望他一直能是核心。鸽派的废物能不能滚远点。
j
jiaru0099

最不怕的是川普御用媒体fox. 知道3月9号还在说死亡人数和流感比差远了。
Fox是尊重科学的媒体?

squirrel40 发表于 4/7/2020 2:06:24 PM

神棍治国
P
Peppa5
Mark 让子弹再飞一会
e
eriecase
fox是他御用媒体 他说啥就跟着说啥大家都知。。今年媒体集体都大号流感 口径一致 时间点不同
最不怕的是川普御用媒体fox. 知道3月9号还在说死亡人数和流感比差远了。 Fox是尊重科学的媒体? squirrel40 发表于 4/7/2020 2:06:00 PM
致远
Peter Navarro 是真清醒的人。 我记得他是鹰派吧? 爆出来3M中国工厂被没收也是他。 希望他一直能是核心。鸽派的废物能不能滚远点。
relay 发表于 4/7/2020 2:07:35 PM
p
plainlake
Fauci后来是支持中国Travel Ban的,三月还给Trump站过台。但一月底的时候是很有可能反对中国Travel Ban的,毕竟数据不明显。Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心。

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:29 PM


Fauci也是主张不戴口罩的,一直说洗手不摸脸就可以了。
要管3721
幸好有他,不然美国更惨
新来的小兔子


Fauci后来是支持中国Travel Ban的,三月还给Trump站过台。但一月底的时候是很有可能反对中国Travel Ban的,毕竟数据不明显。Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心。

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:29 PM

对的,时间点特别关键。希望更多信息出来。
A
Adrianne
Navarro要被oust了。川普最恨手下曝光白宫内幕,和他争功。Navarro现在居然搞出这种事来,他玩了。从此白宫就是JARVANKA的天下了
e
enhesaepc
所以除了WHO之外,最希望被惩罚解散的机构就是CDC。
新来的小兔子
非集权制国家 联邦和州政府都是按照cdc和hhs的guideline制定防疫措施 这边狠信科学家 科学家团队一致认为不怕

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/



eriecase 发表于 4/7/2020 2:02:33 PM

是的,都有一套程序,但这次WHO和CDC的错误造成了巨大的影响。
o
ocmom
Navarro要被oust了。川普最恨手下曝光白宫内幕,和他争功。Navarro现在居然搞出这种事来,他玩了。从此白宫就是JARVANKA的天下了
Adrianne 发表于 4/7/2020 2:33:20 PM

不会。从briefing上,可以看出老川对pence和Navarro的喜欢是由衷的。。而且有一种leak,是故意和授意的leak...
e
enhesaepc
Navarro要被oust了。川普最恨手下曝光白宫内幕,和他争功。Navarro现在居然搞出这种事来,他玩了。从此白宫就是JARVANKA的天下了
Adrianne 发表于 4/7/2020 2:33:20 PM

你这想法妥妥暴露了你是来自于独裁国家。。
c
cuzemel
mark一下,有空再看
p
patx2449
Fauci比较僵化,什么都要evidence,作为科学家是很严谨。他和那个站台的女教授好像是长期搞HIV研究的。这时候应该要找长期从事流感研究,特别是呼吸领域的专家,还有传染病公卫研究领域的人来提供意见和策略。中国不管钟南山还是王辰曹彬还有广受好评的张文宏,都是呼吸重症领域或者是院感流行病学方面的专家,都有SARS的防控经验,当测序发现SARS-2和SARS高度同源,他们就知道了危险性和防控的严格性,即便这样,SARS-2还比SARS更狡猾。还有控制得比较好的亚洲国家,甚至加拿大,都是有SARS防控经验的,所以都控制得还好。而看白宫work force task每次新闻发布会Fauci和围巾女专家讲的最多的就是HIV,Ebola,这个SARS-2其实跟这些病毒的传播模式防疫方法都不一样,希望后面还有其他专家提供意见吧。总是觉得他们两其实专业不怎么对口的样子。
不管谁在早期预测了疫情的严重程度,CDC的试剂盒开发失败是最关键的一步大错误,在谁应该承担责任方面要承担50%的责任。
水母

最不怕的是川普御用媒体fox. 知道3月9号还在说死亡人数和流感比差远了。
Fox是尊重科学的媒体?

squirrel40 发表于 4/7/2020 2:06:24 PM


广大的左派媒体尊重科学吧,他们预警了嘛?
广大的左派知识分子不信fox吧,他们警惕了吗?
广大深蓝州的群众讨厌trump吧,他们感到危险了吗?

川普当然有不可推卸的责任,但为什么要洗白cdc?
承认吧,那些平时不信川普,讨厌川普,讥笑川普的美国人也同样觉得是流感,是因为who,cdc一直说low risk,2月份cdc说大家应该更关注流感
郝爱国教授
Fauci在1月31日的travel ban announcement时候就说了travel ban是因为asymptomatic carriers,当时wapo就有报道 现在局势大逆转Navarro成了功臣了 那么2月23日Navarro怎么没有要求禁航意大利和韩国呢?
牡丹玫瑰

救了美國???禁航中國現在看來做了和沒做一樣好吧。

girlinblack發表於4/7/2020 1:23:02 PM

你傻子啊,要不禁航中国,美国疫情会爆发的更早,染疫死亡人数会更多。
牡丹玫瑰
希望这人能被重用
h
hdbbs
美国抗击疫情掺杂了太多的政治考量,各自将疫情发布会变成竞选宣讲会
l
lylo
Fauci在1月31日的travel ban announcement时候就说了travel ban是因为asymptomatic carriers,当时wapo就有报道

现在局势大逆转Navarro成了功臣了

那么2月23日Navarro怎么没有要求禁航意大利和韩国呢?
郝爱国教授 发表于 4/7/2020 3:00:24 PM


不是,Fauci一月三十一日谈到德国有来自中国的无症状患者,是在解释Screening会非常困难。
b
bananarama
谢谢楼主提供的memo,都是一件件无可辩驳的事实。
t
tricycle
谢谢分享!
i
iamunique


广大的左派媒体尊重科学吧,他们预警了嘛?
广大的左派知识分子不信fox吧,他们警惕了吗?
广大深蓝州的群众讨厌trump吧,他们感到危险了吗?

川普当然有不可推卸的责任,但为什么要洗白cdc?
承认吧,那些平时不信川普,讨厌川普,讥笑川普的美国人也同样觉得是流感,是因为who,cdc一直说low risk,2月份cdc说大家应该更关注流感

水母 发表于 4/7/2020 2:58:16 PM

同意。整个美国社会的忽视导致了事件的恶化。所有的人都有不可推卸的责任,从中国到who,cdc,川普。是时候好好反省了。
s
squirrel40
Fauci比较僵化,什么都要evidence,作为科学家是很严谨。他和那个站台的女教授好像是长期搞HIV研究的。这时候应该要找长期从事流感研究,特别是呼吸领域的专家,还有传染病公卫研究领域的人来提供意见和策略。中国不管钟南山还是王辰曹彬还有广受好评的张文宏,都是呼吸重症领域或者是院感流行病学方面的专家,都有SARS的防控经验,当测序发现SARS-2和SARS高度同源,他们就知道了危险性和防控的严格性,即便这样,SARS-2还比SARS更狡猾。还有控制得比较好的亚洲国家,甚至加拿大,都是有SARS防控经验的,所以都控制得还好。而看白宫work force task每次新闻发布会Fauci和围巾女专家讲的最多的就是HIV,Ebola,这个SARS-2其实跟这些病毒的传播模式防疫方法都不一样,希望后面还有其他专家提供意见吧。总是觉得他们两其实专业不怎么对口的样子。
不管谁在早期预测了疫情的严重程度,CDC的试剂盒开发失败是最关键的一步大错误,在谁应该承担责任方面要承担50%的责任。

patx2449 发表于 4/7/2020 2:54:03 PM


真要重视的话,CDC的测试盒开发失败或者延迟完全可以紧急从国外采购。又不是没卖的。
就是看川普觉得值不值了。
最关键的一步是完全放弃了对入境人群检测。
s
squirrel40
放弃了入境screen, 出现社区传播是必然的
为龙为光
啧啧,报告里预计可能死亡50万,这就是川普说的big flu嘛?
川粉又在这疯狂自high了
P
Pompom


Fauci后来是支持中国Travel Ban的,三月还给Trump站过台。但一月底的时候是很有可能反对中国Travel Ban的,毕竟数据不明显。Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心。

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:29 PM


川粉造谣真是无底线。 Fauci一月底二月初就支持和欧洲断航,川猪头为了保经济不听。 要是早和欧洲断了, 东岸各州也不会像现在这么惨。

Pottinger was by then pushing for another travel ban, this time restricting the flow of travelers from Italy and other nations in the European Union that were rapidly emerging as major new nodes of the outbreak. Pottinger’s proposal was endorsed by key health-care officials, including Fauci, who argued that it was critical to close off any path the virus might take into the country.

This time, the plan met with resistance from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and others who worried about the impact on the U.S. economy. It was an early sign of tension in an area that would split the administration, pitting those who prioritized public health against those determined to avoid any disruption in an election year to the run of expansion and employment growth.
Those backing the economy prevailed with the president. And it was more than a month before the administration issued a belated and confusing ban on flights into the United States from Europe. Hundreds of thousands of people crossed the Atlantic during that interval.
l
lylo


胡说, 川粉造谣真是无底线。 Fauci二月初就支持和欧洲航,川猪头不听。 要是早和欧洲断了, 东岸各州也不会像现在这么惨。

Pottinger was by then pushing for another travel ban, this time restricting the flow of travelers from Italy and other nations in the European Union that were rapidly emerging as major new nodes of the outbreak. Pottinger’s proposal was endorsed by key health-care officials, including Fauci, who argued that it was critical to close off any path the virus might take into the country.

This time, the plan met with resistance from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and others who worried about the impact on the U.S. economy. It was an early sign of tension in an area that would split the administration, pitting those who prioritized public health against those determined to avoid any disruption in an election year to the run of expansion and employment growth.
Those backing the economy prevailed with the president. And it was more than a month before the administration issued a belated and confusing ban on flights into the United States from Europe. Hundreds of thousands of people crossed the Atlantic during that interval.

Pompom 发表于 4/7/2020 5:00:26 PM


“Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心" -

二月十八号Fauci还在说"The risk right now, today currently, is really relative low", 现在造谣无底线的是谁?本来Fauci出一点错,完全可以理解。Navarro也出过错。左派的问题,是总要造一个绝对正确的神出来为大家宣讲科学。你们不是尊重科学,而是要用”尊重科学“打人。

https://news.yahoo.com/top-disease-official-risk-coronavirus-222852299.html
P
Pompom


“Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心" -

二月十八号Fauci还在说"The risk right now, today currently, is really relative low", 现在造谣无底线的是谁?本来Facui出一点错,完全可以理解。Navarro也出过错。左派的问题,是总要造一个绝对正确的神出来为大家宣讲科学。你们不是尊重科学,而是要用”尊重科学“打人。

https://news.yahoo.com/top-disease-official-risk-coronavirus-222852299.html

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 5:14:12 PM


他boss川猪头三月初还在说low risk. 在媒体的面前,他得给川留点脸面很难理解? 明显就是川要甩锅。 Fauci早说要和欧洲断航,川为什么不听?
l
lylo


他boss川猪头三月初还在说low risk. 在媒体的面前,他得给川留点脸面很难理解? 明显就是川要甩锅。 Fauci早说要和欧洲断航,川为什么不听?

Pompom 发表于 4/7/2020 5:19:58 PM


你这转进如风啊,合着Fauci出错就是为Trump留脸面,Fauci与Trump不同就是尊重事实,尊重科学?你们这样搞,硬要把一个流行病学权威搞成神,有一点尊重事实,尊重科学的样子吗?
川粉开始骂fauci了?
j
jiaru0099
川粉开始骂fauci了?
悬 发表于 4/7/2020 5:27:39 PM

对,锅太多了大家都分分。。。
s
slamdunkfan
川粉开始骂fauci了?
悬 发表于 4/7/2020 5:27:39 PM


他该被骂, 前些天我们传粉都被他蒙蔽了. 白叫好了.
f
francis
要么是trump脑子不好使,被人蒙骗,要么是trump一意孤行不听人劝,你们洗地的不能两个同时洗啊
A
Adrianne


“Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心" -

二月十八号Fauci还在说"The risk right now, today currently, is really relative low", 现在造谣无底线的是谁?本来Fauci出一点错,完全可以理解。Navarro也出过错。左派的问题,是总要造一个绝对正确的神出来为大家宣讲科学。你们不是尊重科学,而是要用”尊重科学“打人。

https://news.yahoo.com/top-disease-official-risk-coronavirus-222852299.html

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 5:14:12 PM


C
Cyabce
既然一月份对知道这么严重了,怎么还天天叫被骗了呢?
橙色天空
只甩锅。不解决问题? 甩锅几个月,病毒会消失吗?问题会解决吗? 我们小民还是自求多福。
吃瓜群众11
这个算是惊天大料,基本解释了到现在的唯一两个谜团:
1、为什么川普当初这么快就禁航中国?
2、为什么之后CDC完全没有反应。

1是纳瓦罗用尽了自己的政治能量,影响了川普的决定。

2是对禁航中国的决定,白宫内外反对声音很大。CDC或者觉得自己被overrule了,或者被某些势力影响了,所以就一直处于撂挑子的状态。

我看川普和纳瓦罗,可能要召回班农了。
到最后还是川普核心的American First集团,救了美国。
might 发表于 4/7/2020 1:21:23 PM


西斯空寂。真的是相信中共“超现战”的人,才作出了对付超现战最明智的决定
E
EdwardVIII
明确一下,Fauci和纳瓦罗争执的是氯喹应用问题,不是防疫问题
happlen 发表于 4/7/2020 1:00:13 PM

Fauci當初還反對限制中國入境措施。可以對Fauci陰謀論一下了,哈佛系主任都可以,NIH所長也不是不可能。
n
nomoresilence
mark
前两天有报道说纳瓦罗和费奇大吵,现在再看这些备忘录,发现整个疫情中他可能是最清醒最正确的人。疫情过后,川普对他的信任很可能会进一步提高。 Navarro memos warning of mass coronavirus death circulated in January Jonathan Swan , Margaret Talev Image from a memo to President Trump In late January, President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, according to memos obtained by Axios. The state of play: By late February, Navarro was even more alarmed, and he warned his colleagues, in another memo, that up to 2 million Americans could die of the virus. Navarro's grim estimates are set out in two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and addressed to the National Security Council, the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to the president. The NSC circulated both memos around the White House and multiple agencies. In the first memo, which the New York Times was first to report on, Navarro makes his case for "an immediate travel ban on China." The second lays the groundwork for supplemental requests from Congress, with the warning: "This is NOT a time for penny-pinching or horse trading on the Hill." Why it matters: The president quickly restricted travel from China, moved to delay re-entry of American travelers who could be infected, and dispatched his team to work with Congress on stimulus funds. But Trump wasfar slower to publicly acknowledgethe sort of scenarios Navarro had put in writing. One senior administration official who received Navarro's memos said at the time they were skeptical of his motives and thus his warnings: “The January travel memo struck me as an alarmist attempt to bring attention to Peter’s anti-China agenda while presenting an artificially limited range of policy options." "The supplemental memo lacked any basis for its projections, which led some staff to worry that it could needlessly rattle markets and may not direct funding where it was truly needed." Navarro declined to comment for this story. Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon defended Navarro's motives, calling the memos "prophetic" and saying Navarro was forced to put his concerns in writing because "there was total blockage to get these facts in front of the President of the United States." The "naivete, arrogance and ignorance" of White House advisers who disagreed with Navarro "put the country and the world in jeopardy," Bannon said, adding that Navarro was sidelined from the task force after the memo. "In this Kafkaesque nightmare, nobody would pay attention to him or the facts." The Jan. 29 memo set out two stark choices: "Aggressive Containment versus No Containment." Navarro compared cost estimates for the choices and wrote that the Council of Economic Advisers' estimates for stopping travel from China to the U.S. would be $2.9 billion per month. If the virus turned out to be a pandemic, that travel ban could extend 12 months and cost the U.S. $34.6 billion. Doing nothing (the "No Containment" option) could range from "zero economic costs" to $5.7 trillion depending on the lethality of the virus. On the high end, he estimated a scenario in which the coronavirus could kill 543,000 Americans. The Feb. 23 memo did not advertise its author as did the first, but it was written by Navarro and distributed to numerous officials through the NSC. It was titled as a memorandum to the president via the offices of the national security adviser, chief of staff and COVID-19 task force, and the subject line described it as a request for supplemental appropriation. It began: "There is an increasing probability of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic that could infect as many as 100 million Americans, with a loss of life of as many as 1-2 million souls." He called for an "immediate supplemental appropriation of at least $3 billion" to support efforts at prevention, treatment, inoculation and diagnostics. He described expected needs for "Personal Protective Equipment" for health care workers and secondary workers in facilities such as elder care and skilled nursing. He estimated that over a four-to-six-month period, "We can expect to need at least a billion face masks, 200,000 Tyvek suits, and 11,000 ventilator circuits, and 25,000 PAPRs (powered air-purifying respirators)." Navarro clashed this past weekendwith Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, over how widely to promote the use of malaria drug hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus. But the January and February memos reveal a more substantial advocacy on his part, with detailed health and economic calculations meant to grab and hold the president's attention. Politico first reported in late February about theexistence of memosfrom Navarro to White House officials, while their details had not been published. Our thought bubble: Axios' health care editor Sam Baker says Navarro's concern about the severity while acknowledging the speculative nature of modeling viruses was largely correct. "These memos place a very big emphasis on banning travel specifically from China —which, of course, Trump did," Baker says. But by Jan. 29, there were confirmed cases in15 countries, including the U.S. "This is not to say they're a bad idea, only that this is why public-health experts don't lean as heavily on travel restrictions. People come into the U.S. from a lot of places, and with two globalized countries, simply stopping people coming in from Wuhan was not bad but it shouldn't be shocking that it was insufficient." Flashback: "It's going to have a very good ending for us," Trump said of the coronavirus in a speech on Jan. 30. In a Feb. 24 tweet, he said it was "very much under control" and that the stock market is "starting to look very good to me." The World Health Organization declared it a pandemic on March 11. On March 17, the president said, "I've felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic." Page 1 of a Jan. 29 memo Page 2 of a Jan. 29 memo Page 3 of a Jan. 29 memo Page 4 of a Jan, 29 memo Page 5 of a Jan. 29 memo Page 6 of a Jan. 29 memo Page 7 of a Jan. 29 memo Page 1 of a Feb. 23 memo Page 2 of a Feb. 23 memo Page 3 of a Feb. 23 memo Page 4 of a Feb. 23 memo sbtelf 发表于 4/7/2020 12:54:00 PM
f
freewings10
这才是国士无双,(哈)佛学院确实出人才,服了。我再也不指责大家推藤了。

他计算的需要11000呼吸机也是对,美国本来有20000的储备,现在还剩10000, 刚好用掉10000左右。难怪Trump敢和哭墨州长的四万呼吸机打擂台。

这真有诸葛亮带猪队友(卫生部门)的感觉,任你妙计千条,全给你执行得一塌糊涂。- Fauci反对travel ban. CDC的做不出合格的测试,FDA拖延各种批准。

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 1:00:21 PM


赞同你说的大部分,不过纳瓦罗和Fauci发生冲突的好像不是Travel ban,说的是在氯喹用药上的冲突。
c
cattywh

Fauci不算卫生部门的人吧。他也不是cdc的, NIH 充其量是个研究机构吧。

chillywind 发表于 4/7/2020 1:14:52 PM


Fauci是deep state的,跟Bill Gates他们都有关联
c
crab7
Fauci NIH 犹太帮 深蓝 已经是个政客不是学者
b
betterme
谢谢lz分享..字数字数
爱咋咋地吧

你这么说过分了,fauci的方法可能不是最优的,但是出问题后他给出了当前最可行的方式。谁都不是神,没必要苛责。他也想多测,但是现实执行起来都有难度,不能有一点问题就破口大骂咒人死。

oceanmist 发表于 4/7/2020 1:18:41 PM

事情没发生前,尤其那么大一个国家,无论是Fauci博士还是Trump总统,都是要看数据才能做决定的。事后诸葛亮管用,人人亿万富翁
c
congcong8565
那个人才编的,还挺有调理
花花叶
我终于等到这个流程了... 我就知道会有这一步
花花叶
既然一月份对知道这么严重了,怎么还天天叫被骗了呢?
Cyabce 发表于 4/7/2020 5:32:54 PM

不叫骗 怎么甩锅呢...
爱咋咋地吧


川粉造谣真是无底线。 Fauci一月底二月初就支持和欧洲断航,川猪头为了保经济不听。 要是早和欧洲断了, 东岸各州也不会像现在这么惨。

Pottinger was by then pushing for another travel ban, this time restricting the flow of travelers from Italy and other nations in the European Union that were rapidly emerging as major new nodes of the outbreak. Pottinger’s proposal was endorsed by key health-care officials, including Fauci, who argued that it was critical to close off any path the virus might take into the country.

This time, the plan met with resistance from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and others who worried about the impact on the U.S. economy. It was an early sign of tension in an area that would split the administration, pitting those who prioritized public health against those determined to avoid any disruption in an election year to the run of expansion and employment growth.
Those backing the economy prevailed with the president. And it was more than a month before the administration issued a belated and confusing ban on flights into the United States from Europe. Hundreds of thousands of people crossed the Atlantic during that interval.

Pompom 发表于 4/7/2020 5:00:26 PM

一月底二月初中国才爆,就欧洲断航?你张嘴一说也太没逻辑了
n
noshock
Fauci后来是支持中国Travel Ban的,三月还给Trump站过台。但一月底的时候是很有可能反对中国Travel Ban的,毕竟数据不明显。Fauci二月的时候还经常说危险不大,大家放心。

lylo 发表于 4/7/2020 1:25:29 PM


我来解释一下,Fauci 以Science 为基础,他只有WHO数据,哪怕不情愿,做事要有依据,只能用WHO数据,即中国的假数据,所以当时防备不力。Novarro则是从政治直觉出发,他对大陆政权本质的判断出发,认为大陆是发生了大事。但是,直觉是没有多少事实基础的,所以一月份他输了。但是至今的结果,事实证明,Fauci 信WHO,即大陆,是大错,而Novato 的直觉对了,他非常正确!不幸的是,他的个人正确,是以全美爆发为代价的,极其痛苦的荣誉。
s
seagull2000
仔细看1月29号的memo, 提到可能会有50万美国人死于这个病毒,那Trump政府早就知道这个病毒的凶险了,为什么Trump还告诉普通老百姓it is just a flu? 这不是祸国殃民么?
2
2sigma
我来解释一下,Fauci 以Science 为基础,他只有WHO数据,哪怕不情愿,做事要有依据,只能用WHO数据,即中国的假数据,所以当时防备不力。Novarro则是从政治直觉出发,他对大陆政权本质的判断出发,认为大陆事发生了大事。但是,直觉是没有多少事实基础的,结果,事实证明,Fauci 信WHO,即大陆,是大错,而Novato 的直觉正确!不幸的是,他的个人正确,是以全美爆发为代价的,极其痛苦的荣誉。

noshock 发表于 4/7/2020 7:11:54 PM


+1
s
seagull2000
国家出了这么大灾难,领导人不应该负主要责任么,为什么每天只想着推卸责任,找替罪羊?人品太低劣了!
m
moneytalks
早不听文贵的。后悔对美国政府的盲目信任 ]
w
woyaoshou
冷战遗毒纳瓦罗。CNN采访的时候语无伦次。这个年纪就应该进养老院
Fauci比较僵化,什么都要evidence,作为科学家是很严谨。他和那个站台的女教授好像是长期搞HIV研究的。这时候应该要找长期从事流感研究,特别是呼吸领域的专家,还有传染病公卫研究领域的人来提供意见和策略。中国不管钟南山还是王辰曹彬还有广受好评的张文宏,都是呼吸重症领域或者是院感流行病学方面的专家,都有SARS的防控经验,当测序发现SARS-2和SARS高度同源,他们就知道了危险性和防控的严格性,即便这样,SARS-2还比SARS更狡猾。还有控制得比较好的亚洲国家,甚至加拿大,都是有SARS防控经验的,所以都控制得还好。而看白宫work force task每次新闻发布会Fauci和围巾女专家讲的最多的就是HIV,Ebola,这个SARS-2其实跟这些病毒的传播模式防疫方法都不一样,希望后面还有其他专家提供意见吧。总是觉得他们两其实专业不怎么对口的样子。
不管谁在早期预测了疫情的严重程度,CDC的试剂盒开发失败是最关键的一步大错误,在谁应该承担责任方面要承担50%的责任。

patx2449 发表于 4/7/2020 2:54:03 PM


同意每一个字
L
Lightwinds
那就是说川普满足跑火车说是大号流感的时候, 其实心里明镜似的知道,这绝不是流感。 所以他这么说,是为了其他的政治目的咯~