I think you're aware of reporting that the Chinese were not transparent about all this in the very beginning.
The question now that's arising, though, is, people are asking, if they had been more transparent in the very beginning, would it have prevented the spread of this virus, period, or would it have simply given more countries like the United States more time to prepare?
Anthony Fauci:
Well, Judy, I don't think anything would have prevented the spread of this virus. Once it emerged into society, with its capability of efficient spread and morbidity and mortality, that was it.
But what could have been different — and this is something that people are going to reflect on, you know, when this is all over, as they try and analyze what actually happened — is that, if we had known that this was highly transmissible early on, when it was just in China, I think other countries would have maybe been more quick on the trigger to try and inhibit travel from China to their country, because, remember, it started in China.
And then China, by the fact that there are so many Chinese people, and travel is part of our daily existence in this planet, that there would maybe have been more attention paid to the possibility that just pure travel from China in general, but certainly from Wuhan and the Hubei district, is something that could start an outbreak throughout the world.
So, that delay in transparency, I think, likely had an impact on what I just said, the awareness that this could seed the rest of the world.
Judy Woodruff:
All that points right back to Chinese officials, doesn't it?
I think you're aware of reporting that the Chinese were not transparent about all this in the very beginning.
The question now that's arising, though, is, people are asking, if they had been more transparent in the very beginning, would it have prevented the spread of this virus, period, or would it have simply given more countries like the United States more time to prepare?
Anthony Fauci:
Well, Judy, I don't think anything would have prevented the spread of this virus. Once it emerged into society, with its capability of efficient spread and morbidity and mortality, that was it.
But what could have been different — and this is something that people are going to reflect on, you know, when this is all over, as they try and analyze what actually happened — is that, if we had known that this was highly transmissible early on, when it was just in China, I think other countries would have maybe been more quick on the trigger to try and inhibit travel from China to their country, because, remember, it started in China.
And then China, by the fact that there are so many Chinese people, and travel is part of our daily existence in this planet, that there would maybe have been more attention paid to the possibility that just pure travel from China in general, but certainly from Wuhan and the Hubei district, is something that could start an outbreak throughout the world.
So, that delay in transparency, I think, likely had an impact on what I just said, the awareness that this could seed the rest of the world.
Judy Woodruff:
All that points right back to Chinese officials, doesn't it?
但是Fauci他们说的human to human transmission，指的是社区传播，对应的是外部输入。比如说你一月二月从中国到美国，然后在美国发病确诊，这不叫human to human transmission，叫travel related；你二月三月去过意大利然后回美国发病确诊，这也不叫human to human transmission；甚至你现在去纽约逛一圈然后回中部玉米地确诊，对玉米地当地人来说你可能都不叫human to human transmission。你一直在local呆着，没到处去旅游，莫名其妙也不知道被谁传上了，这叫human to human transmission。
但是Fauci他们说的human to human transmission，指的是社区传播，对应的是外部输入。比如说你一月二月从中国到美国，然后在美国发病确诊，这不叫human to human transmission，叫travel related；你二月三月去过意大利然后回美国发病确诊，这也不叫human to human transmission；甚至你现在去纽约逛一圈然后回中部玉米地确诊，对玉米地当地人来说你可能都不叫human to human transmission。你一直在local呆着，没到处去旅游，莫名其妙也不知道被谁传上了，这叫human to human transmission。
上周看daily show，老先生几次提到，纽约如此严重，是因为纽约作为国际都市，包容性很好，比如，很多中国人跑来跑去。做为中国人，可能比较敏感，当时的反应就是原来你内心就怪中国人啊，否则怎么不说纽约是意大利人的大本营，多少意大利人跑来跑去呢？ seasons 发表于 4/4/2020 12:32:41 AM
应该给他看这个, 大部分中国人非常自觉。
“Among 50,000 ethnic Chinese who live in the town of Prato, Italy, there isn’t even one case of COVID-19, which has killed almost 12,000 people in Italy. Town’s infection rate to almost half the Italian average – 62 cases per 100,000 inhabitants versus 115 for the country. Once scapegoats, they are now held up by authorities as a model for early, strict adoption of infection-control measures. "
“Among 50,000 ethnic Chinese who live in the town of Prato, Italy, there isn’t even one case of COVID-19, which has killed almost 12,000 people in Italy. Town’s infection rate to almost half the Italian average – 62 cases per 100,000 inhabitants versus 115 for the country. Once scapegoats, they are now held up by authorities as a model for early, strict adoption of infection-control measures. "
hearyt 发表于 4/4/2020 12:47:39 AM [url=http://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.aspx?topicid=2528764&postid=83451618#83451618][/url]
Just after watching PBS news every Friday night, live interview with Dr. Fauci on Skype, actually Dr. Fauci has been saying, "It's all blaming China. From the beginning, it only said that the virus jumped from animals to humans, not people. "He also said," If we knew this virus was passed from person to person, this virus was so powerful, we would have been banned for a long time. "--- Dr. Fauci also started dumping China. Lamented. There is no Link (a lot of people ask), because I watch the live broadcast of PBS news hour on traditional TV. It seems that Dr. Fauci also wanted to keep his black gauze hat. Link has just been found, PBS is so powerful, it was broadcast live on TV already on the Internet [url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-dr-fauci-wants-you-to-know-about-face-masks-and-staying-home-as-virus-spreads]https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-dr-fauci-wants-you-to-know-about-[/url] The interview with [url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-dr-fauci-wants-you-to-know-about-face-masks-and-staying-home-as-virus-spreads]face-masks-and-staying-home-as-virus-spreads is[/url] quite long. There are 17 minutes. Let's find his place to dump the pot in China. Because the Chinese government has made mistakes, the US government has made mistakes in its judgments. Instead of blindly blaming China, he only blamed China, but he did not admit that the US has made mistakes in judgment. He bite a piece of China, which made it more difficult for the Chinese living in the United States to survive. Those Red Necks who don't understand anything have to take the opportunity to retaliate against the Chinese in the United States. This is a nationwide TV media, he bit by bit China, the public opinion force is too great. I was shocked. I just went to Link to listen to this for 17 minutes and found that it was a bit different from what I heard on TV. I edited it and deleted what he said on the Skype live broadcast. Said that the virus jumped from animals to people, not from person to person. "This paragraph. So those netizens who use the PBS Link Script I gave, you said that I am out of context, I have a hard time arguing .
AzureOcean published on 4/3/2020 10:35:24 PM[url=http://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.aspx?topicid=2528764&postid=83449720#83449720][/url]
hindsight is 20-20. 啥病人？当时就知道这个病人会传染了？就知道这个病人能造成现在这么大的问题？
人类应该n年前发现那个会传人的动物， 及时 隔离，就任务完成了。
突发公共卫生事件一直到1月31日才宣，而且还建议各国不要禁航，结果就是各个国家各自为政，很多国家没有禁航。
你们老说美国1月份就禁航了，但却不提美国是1月最后一天才禁的航，还是借着突发公共卫生事件才禁。如果突发公共卫生事件宣布能早八天，并且不加那句建议各国不要禁航，全球禁航或许能早8天发生。
SARS主要是区域性的，传染性没有这么强潜伏期短，基本上就是中国。当时中国到美国签证不容易，往来直航不多。。。即使在加州，华人也不多。。当时的大多数美国人没听说过google, Facebook, LinkedIn... 只知道yahoo, monster.. 😀😀
听了，没觉得有不妥的地方。
你总不能不让人提中国这个词吧。
SARS潜伏期基本不传染，而且潜伏期一过马上急性发病，高热等特征非常明显，而且患者基本病得没有力气再乱跑了。
承认戴口罩有效, 非常打自己的脸, 很伤自尊.
而且大家看到中国和亚洲, 都戴了两个月了.
这期间, CDC多次强调戴口罩无效, 甚至可能有害.
今天, 终于撑不住, 表示他们科学数据出来了, 有点效.
看着美国人民, 手工缝制的口罩, 总统强推的围巾, 连内裤都能改造成口罩.
大国的尊严和骄傲, 是放下了.
呵呵，你就继续你的阴阳怪气的表演吧。
知道人传人之后没立刻采取措施让疫区的人到处跑。还让世卫洗地, TG难道没责任？
这些人就是标准的 何不食肉糜 。
美国CDC里面有那么多专家教授，美国有顶尖的医学院医院，应对的一塌糊涂，却在苛求一个中国二三线城市医疗系统的反应，然后说中国是evil，简直不可理喻
美国的情报部门是白养的，我们都看到了，他们会一无所知吗
对，川普下面没什么能人
传到欧洲，欧洲再传到美国。
我记得最初的那批患者行迹追逐的信息，是欧洲东南亚这些地方的染上的。
禁航和中国故意隐瞒报假有必然的关系吗？
你都不看录像的？老头说的是一月中。那时候中国本身对人传人也没有定论。
这个惨象也就老中在看，美国人哪有兴趣？
你还逛国内论坛看各个贴子讨论，看网上传的各种微信截图，看网友自述我的朋友在武汉怎么怎么样呢。美国情报部分往上写报告又不会写的这么详细。他们知道你不知道的信息，但你也知道他们不知道的信息。
我觉得这个说到点子上了，虽然都是传染病，但呼吸道传染病的防控重点跟HIV，HBV这些差别太大了，加上美国没有应对SARS或MERS的经验，这次的专家团队没有找呼吸科的大拿是很大的疏忽。
真的。这专家做得也太不实事求是了。难怪美国防疫做的这么差。再说川普说大流感的时候，说美国的cases很快归零的时候，他怎么屁都不放一个呢？这杀伤力最大吧。
而且是两个多月这种强度，快80了。
我18的时候都不行。
请用数据说话行嘛？
But China's airlines have been still coming every day.
有显著症状才传播就比较容易控制 发烧病人都不可以上飞机 所以当时应该没有多少患者过来美国
Judy Woodruff:
I think you're aware of reporting that the Chinese were not transparent about all this in the very beginning.
The question now that's arising, though, is, people are asking, if they had been more transparent in the very beginning, would it have prevented the spread of this virus, period, or would it have simply given more countries like the United States more time to prepare?
Anthony Fauci:
Well, Judy, I don't think anything would have prevented the spread of this virus. Once it emerged into society, with its capability of efficient spread and morbidity and mortality, that was it.
But what could have been different — and this is something that people are going to reflect on, you know, when this is all over, as they try and analyze what actually happened — is that, if we had known that this was highly transmissible early on, when it was just in China, I think other countries would have maybe been more quick on the trigger to try and inhibit travel from China to their country, because, remember, it started in China.
And then China, by the fact that there are so many Chinese people, and travel is part of our daily existence in this planet, that there would maybe have been more attention paid to the possibility that just pure travel from China in general, but certainly from Wuhan and the Hubei district, is something that could start an outbreak throughout the world.
So, that delay in transparency, I think, likely had an impact on what I just said, the awareness that this could seed the rest of the world.
Judy Woodruff:
All that points right back to Chinese officials, doesn't it?
Anthony Fauci:
Looks that way.
反正我觉得楼主的翻译是有点断章取义
呵呵😄
有可能你有本事拿得到甩锅给中国是美国政府一致的决议书，我是没看到的。作为一名普通老百姓也没必要和你争这个。当然你能把决议书上传一下让大家开开眼，也是好事一桩。 我想说，感染率数字高的也不是美国一家，呃，对了，其他几家数字高的也不精通中文，估计也没领会我党那隐晦的提示的。都去看战狼官宣去了，再被收买的WHO一忽悠，一贯用数字说话爱玩模型的，这次全栽了。放心吧，其他受灾国家等把疫情控制住了，会坐下来心平气和的总结经验教训的。不只美国一家啊。时间的问题。就想这个传染病，最终会控制住，就是时间的问题而已。
关键是他在甩锅，就没说一句象你说的自己防疫有问题。
我孤陋寡闻，他为控制新冠作出了什么贡献。
钟南山一月份就建议封城。从一月到三月，他干了什么。
好笑，本来就是互利的关系，你想清算有这个能力吗？还好川建国还知道美国单独解决不了这个问题，不想有些人那么蠢。
呵呵搞得某大国没甩锅一样，武汉不是才死2500吗，这么清美国需要封城?另外军运会咋回事？做事真双标，我相信连这么中立的医生都说了，就好比一个老好人都受不了了，说明某国实在做得够烂
上周看daily show，老先生几次提到，纽约如此严重，是因为纽约作为国际都市，包容性很好，比如，很多中国人跑来跑去。做为中国人，可能比较敏感，当时的反应就是原来你内心就怪中国人啊，否则怎么不说纽约是意大利人的大本营，多少意大利人跑来跑去呢？
美国是个民主国家 他们这样是帮美国老百姓感受到中国共产党病毒制造了多大的灾难 到时是全美人民反对中央政府了
而且钟南山很关心医护，去武汉考察的时候逼问武汉的官员医护有没有感染
可是一月底的时候，英国就有模型根据当时武汉的数字算出来实际当时已经感染了好几万人啊。
我觉得你们需要知道，中文的人传人，对应的是动物传人，只要你身上的病毒是另一个人类而非动物传给你的，就都叫人传人。
但是Fauci他们说的human to human transmission，指的是社区传播，对应的是外部输入。比如说你一月二月从中国到美国，然后在美国发病确诊，这不叫human to human transmission，叫travel related；你二月三月去过意大利然后回美国发病确诊，这也不叫human to human transmission；甚至你现在去纽约逛一圈然后回中部玉米地确诊，对玉米地当地人来说你可能都不叫human to human transmission。你一直在local呆着，没到处去旅游，莫名其妙也不知道被谁传上了，这叫human to human transmission。
他可忙了，出现在各大采访中... youtube哪哪的采访都有他...
这不搞笑吗？
你们都是想当然吧。过去几天，武汉几乎天天都有新确诊啊，昨天就有一例本地传染。
如果要CIA起决定性作用，那还要WHO干什么？国家与国家之间还沟通什么？
什么叫双标？我说他光指责中国不检讨自己，不等于我认同国内专家说可防可控。，你懂不懂逻辑？
有一说一，这是实话啊
情况属实
好笑。还真能幻想死那么多人是输入传染。有的人是一家家死。
应该给他看这个, 大部分中国人非常自觉。
“Among 50,000 ethnic Chinese who live in the town of Prato, Italy, there isn’t even one case of COVID-19, which has killed almost 12,000 people in Italy. Town’s infection rate to almost half the Italian average – 62 cases per 100,000 inhabitants versus 115 for the country. Once scapegoats, they are now held up by authorities as a model for early, strict adoption of infection-control measures. "
说得好像美国有多尊重W H O似的。人家给测试盒都不接受，怀疑人家的盒子不能，这时候不说相信W H O了。
WHO宣布这些有什么标准没有？还是拍拍屁股就能决定的？
一个天天说谎的人，哪句话可信？ 怎么相信？
再看看外交部天天的发言 如何相信
看看说真话的李文亮艾芬 什么下场
你共把世界颠倒黑说成白 锅往哪甩，甩给谁？
你到底想说什么？是说之前武汉一家家死，还是现在美国一家家死？
Fauci又没说过“都怪中国，从一开始只说病毒是从动物跳到人身上，不是人传人。如果我们早知道这个病毒人传人，这个病毒这么厉害，我们就会早就禁航了”，这是楼主在说呀。
那个采访视频是不是好多人压根都没点开看？
纽约的华人区染上的也少
自我欺骗系统，这样就不会觉得那么糟糕了，因为不是自己主观要犯错。
但这也意味着到改正还会有很长很长的路要走，期间还有可能经历疯狂期，哎。。。
就大家开个会讨论讨论决定，跟拍拍屁股决定没啥太大区别，不然还能有啥金标准么？
韩国人吃中国的亏吃得多 有经验嘛
你说的精确
亏着钱回程空仓都要坚持运毒来美国
i guess i get used to it.
我觉得 14 天潜伏期、加无症状传染的这个病毒，外加传染力强，除非一直都 lock down，基本控制不住的。
一直 lock down 是不可能的，病毒致死率可能最多也就 0.3% 不到。一直 lock down 经济崩溃的话，迟早都得饿死。
能实际做到的就是压平曲线，避免医疗系统过载被击穿。最后 herd immunity。同时疫苗和治疗手段跟上，预防和治疗上做到尽人事知天命。
你说川大爷吃中国亏不多，可能川大爷自己都不认，lol
韩国主要是MERS的时候,韩国已经演练过一遍了,有点经验了.
台湾也是,SARS的时候,吃过大亏,现在做的很好,比韩国都好.
新加坡,香港也吃SARS的亏,现在做的还可以.
被甩锅的是中国政府，不是中国人
我也认为控制不住，lock down减缓一下，复工一段时间小爆发，再lock down，再复工，直到有效疫苗和药物出现，期间多保护老人病人
就是，这是新病毒，中国对其有认识过程反倒是美国，中国，意大利都那么如火如荼了，还big flu, 还错得比中国小? 有些人的双标真不是盖的
中国感染死亡的人少，因为全社会停摆，全民戴口罩，严格追逐隔离，美国哪个做到了，没有做到怎么能比感染死亡率。
没错，这次的疫情防控效果完全生动反映了各国的处理态度。韩国应对SARS和MERS的经验让他们第一时间认真对待了，而美国在H1N1时的侥幸过关经验则适得其反。现在疫情已经发展到这个程度还想着嘴硬甩锅，而不是赶紧加强措施亡羊补牢，这个情况真的不乐观了。
系/校花的老公，我同意你的观点。。😀😀 unprecedented这个词很重要，的确是全世界前所未有的灾情，没有人可以真正预测。。。我只能说曾经经历过9/11和2008年的历史，这次根本就不是一个数量级的。。。
我记得这个Dr. Fauci早些时候说过不会无症状传染
赞同这次不是一个数量级的。将来具体进程无法可靠预测。不过相信会走出困境的。
也跟病毒有长期共存的可能，比如疫苗有效率不高，长期找不到特效药，也是有可能的
SARS 不会无症状传染。这个病毒序列跟 SARS 的相似度非常高。
这里暴露了我们人类生物基因学的一个最大弱点，有基因序列但无法计算机 simulation 该基因序列的生物活性致病能力 。。。 用马工的比方就是，GitHub code review 时，简单比较一下 coding 的字符序列的相似程度，就打算过刷题面试了。
真实情况是，美国的华人早早就准备好了，我们哪儿来的信息？