…my father happened to find my papers and read them. Without entering into the discussion, he took occasion to talk to me about the manner of my writing; observed that, though I had the advantage of my antagonist in correct spelling and pointing (which I ow'd to the printing-house), I fell far short in elegance of expression, in method and in perspicuity, of which he convinced me by several instances. I saw the justice of his remarks, and thence grew more attentive to the manner in writing, and determined to endeavor at improvement.
About this time I met with an odd volume of the Spectator.[18] It was the third. I had never before seen any of them. I bought it, read it over and over, and was much delighted with it. I thought the writing excellent, and wished, if possible, to imitate it. With this view I took some of the papers, and, making short hints of the sentiment in each sentence, laid them by a few days, and then, without looking at the book, try'd to compleat the papers again, by expressing each hinted sentiment at length, and as fully as it had been expressed before, in any suitable words that should come to hand. Then I compared my Spectator with the original, discovered some of my faults, and corrected them. But I found I wanted a stock of words, or a readiness in recollecting and using them, which I thought I should have acquired before that time if I had gone on making verses; since the continual occasion for words of the same import, but of different length, to suit the measure, or of different sound for the rhyme, would have laid me under a constant necessity of searching for variety, and also have tended to fix that variety in my mind, and make me master of it. Therefore I took some of the tales and turned them into verse; and, after a time, when I had pretty well forgotten the prose, turned them back again. I also sometimes jumbled my collections of hints into confusion, and after some weeks endeavored to reduce them into the best order, before I began to form the full sentences and compleat the paper. This was to teach me method in the arrangement of thoughts. By comparing my work afterwards with the original, I discovered many faults and amended them; but I sometimes had the pleasure of fancying that, in certain particulars of small import, I had been lucky enough to improve the method of the language, and this encouraged me to think I might possibly in time come to be a tolerable English writer, of which I was extremely ambitious. My time for these exercises and for reading was at night, after work or before it began in the morning, or on Sundays。。。 [此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 14:16:35编辑过]
My parents had early given me religious impressions, and brought me through my childhood piously in the Dissenting way. But I was scarce fifteen, when, after doubting by turns of several points, as I found them disputed in the different books I read, I began to doubt of Revelation itself. Some books against Deism fell into my hands; they were said to be the substance of sermons preached at Boyle's Lectures. It happened that they wrought an effect on me quite contrary to what was intended by them; for the arguments of the Deists, which were quoted to be refuted, appeared to me much stronger than the refutations; in short, I soon became a thorough Deist. … I began to suspect that this doctrine, tho' it might be true, was not very useful. My London pamphlet, which had for its motto these lines of Dryden:
"Whatever is, is right. Though purblind man Sees but a part o' the chain, the nearest link: His eyes not carrying to the equal beam, That poises all above;"
and from the attributes of God, his infinite wisdom, goodness and power, concluded that nothing could possibly be wrong in the world, and that vice and virtue were empty distinctions, no such things existing, appear'd now not so clever a performance as I once thought it; and I doubted whether some error had not insinuated itself unperceiv'd into my argument, so as to infect all that follow'd, as is common in metaphysical reasonings.
I grew convinc'd that truth, sincerity and integrity in dealings between man and man were of the utmost importance to the felicity of life; and I form'd written resolutions… [此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 14:18:15编辑过]
There are croakers in every country, always boding its ruin. Such a one then lived in Philadelphia; a person of note, an elderly man, with a wise look and a very grave manner of speaking; his name was Samuel Mickle. This gentleman, a stranger to me, stopt one day at my door, and asked me if I was the young man who had lately opened a new printing-house. Being answered in the affirmative, he said he was sorry for me, because it was an expensive undertaking, and the expense would be lost; for Philadelphia was a sinking place, the people already half-bankrupts, or near being so; all appearances to the contrary, such as new buildings and the rise of rents, being to his certain knowledge fallacious; for they were, in fact, among the things that would soon ruin us. And he gave me such a detail of misfortunes now existing, or that were soon to exist, that he left me half melancholy. Had I known him before I engaged in this business, probably I never should have done it. This man continued to live in this decaying place, and to declaim in the same strain, refusing for many years to buy a house there, because all was going to destruction; and at last I had the pleasure of seeing him give five times as much for one as he might have bought it for when he first began his croaking.
I should have mentioned before, that, in the autumn of the preceding year, I had form'd most of my ingenious acquaintance into a club of mutual improvement, which was called the Junto;[54] we met on Friday evenings. The rules that I drew up required that every member, in his turn, should produce one or more queries on any point of Morals, Politics, or Natural Philosophy, to be discuss'd by the company; and once in three months produce and read an essay of his own writing, on any subject he pleased. Our debates were to be under the direction of a president, and to be conducted in the sincere spirit of inquiry after truth, without fondness for dispute, or desire of victory; and, to prevent warmth, all expressions of positiveness in opinions, or direct contradiction, were after some time made contraband, and prohibited under small pecuniary penalties.
… (省略对其他成员的介绍)
And William Coleman, then a merchant's clerk, about my age, who had the coolest, clearest head, the bestheart, and the exactest morals of almost any man I ever met with. He became afterwards a merchant of great note, and one of our provincial judges. Our friendship continued without interruption to his death, upwards of forty years; and the club continued almost as long, and was the best school of philosophy, morality, and politics that then existed in the province; for our queries, which were read the week preceding their discussion, put us upon reading with attention upon the several subjects, that we might speak more to the purpose; and here, too, we acquired better habits of conversation, everything being studied in our rules which might prevent our disgusting each other. From hence the long continuance of the club, which I shall have frequent occasion to speak further of hereafter.
[54] A Spanish term meaning a combination for political intrigue; here a club or society.
I began now gradually to pay off the debt I was under for the printing-house. In order to secure my credit and character as a tradesman, I took care not only to be in reality industrious and frugal, but to avoid all appearances to the contrary. I drest plainly; I was seen at no places of idle diversion. I never went out a fishing or shooting; a book, indeed, sometimes debauch'd me from my work, but that was seldom, snug, and gave no scandal; and, to show that I was not above my business, I sometimes brought home the paper I purchas'd at the stores thro' the streets on a wheelbarrow. Thus being esteem'd an industrious, thriving young man, and paying duly for what I bought, the merchants who imported stationery solicited my custom; others proposed supplying me with books, and I went on swimmingly.
And now I set on foot my first project of a public nature, that for a subscription library…. When we were about to sign the above mentioned articles, which were to be binding on us, our heirs, etc., for fifty years, Mr. Brockden, the scrivener, said to us, "You are young men, but it is scarcely probable that any of you will live to see the expiration of the term fix'd in the instrument." A number of us, however, are yet living; but the instrument was after a few years rendered null by a charter that incorporated and gave perpetuity to the company. The objections and reluctances I met with in soliciting the subscriptions, made me soon feel the impropriety of presenting one's self as the proposer of any useful project, that might be suppos'd to raise one's reputation in the smallest degree above that of one's neighbours, when one has need of their assistance to accomplish that project. I therefore put myself as much as I could out of sight, and stated it as a scheme of a number of friends, who had requested me to go about and propose it to such as they thought lovers of reading. In this way my affair went on more smoothly, and I ever after practis'd it on such occasions; and, from my frequent successes, can heartily recommend it. The present little sacrifice of your vanity will afterwards be amply repaid. If it remains a while uncertain to whom the merit belongs, someone more vain than yourself will be encouraged to claim it, and then even envy will be disposed to do you justice by plucking those assumed feathers, and restoring them to their right owner.
Millions of innocent men, women and children, since the introduction of Christianity, have been burnt, tortured, fined and imprisoned; yet we have not advanced one inch towards uniformity.
"Every government degenerates when trusted to the rulers of the people alone. The people themselves, therefore, are its only safe depositories. And to render even them safe, their minds must be improved to a certain degree." --Thomas Jefferson: Notes on Virginia, 1782.
"The poor who have neither property, friends, nor strength to labor, are boarded in the houses of good farmers, to whom a stipulated sum is annually paid. To those who are able to help themselves a little, or have friends from whom they derive some succor, inadequate however to their full maintenance, supplementary aids are given which enable them to live comfortably in their own houses, or in the houses of their friends. --Thomas Jefferson: Notes on Virginia, 1782.
看到一篇文章，"8 steps to stress-proof your day"，有一步就是"notice at least one good thing you experience every day." 不是因为感恩是对的，所以我们要去做；而是因为感恩心对我们自己有益，所以它是对的。
Franklin说的这段话就是这个道理："though certain actions might not be bad because they were forbidden by it, or good because it commanded them, yet probably these actions might be forbidden because they were bad for us, or commanded because they were beneficial to us, in their own natures, all the circumstances of things considered."
看到一篇文章，"8 steps to stress-proof your day"，有一步就是"notice at least one good thing you experience every day." 不是因为感恩是对的，所以我们要去做；而是因为感恩心对我们自己有益，所以它是对的。
Franklin说的这段话就是这个道理："though certain actions might not be bad because they were forbidden by it, or good because it commanded them, yet probably these actions might be forbidden because they were bad for us, or commanded because they were beneficial to us, in their own natures, all the circumstances of things considered."
我刚做了一件自认为牛的事，来跟大家得色一下~~ 帅哥组织了个心理学讲座（就是前两天我做海报的那个），主讲讲英语，帅哥让我翻译。我开始有些犹豫，百度了同声传译是多么的难之后，我打鸟退堂鼓，但由于不想让一个搞翻译的美女朋友来和帅哥搭上（哈哈）、自己也很想尝试这个没做过的事情，我拖着严重发炎的嗓子死撑到鸟最后 昨天全程2小时做交替翻译下来，我惊喜地发现！自己的中英文能力和短时记忆比我想象和记忆中的要好很多啊啊啊啊~~~哦也~~~ 帅哥和他的老师反馈也不错，听众的反馈还没问。但是整个经历就是I did something new, I survived, and I feel bigger and more capable! 美中不足的是，即使组织者后面一起吃饭了，我还是觉得很帅哥没实现connection
以下是引用meiyoule在7/10/2012 3:40:00 PM的发言： 不看书浑身难受啊， 不过说实在的， 月书看看摘抄讨论讨论还挺不错的， 真看我还是有点儿看不下去啊。。。 还有啥好书推荐不？ 那difficult conversations我翻了， 不咋的。。 Risk Intelligence - How to Live with Unvertainty, by Dylan Evans.
以下是引用redsilence在7/10/2012 9:15:00 PM的发言： 我刚做了一件自认为牛的事，来跟大家得色一下~~ 帅哥组织了个心理学讲座（就是前两天我做海报的那个），主讲讲英语，帅哥让我翻译。我开始有些犹豫，百度了同声传译是多么的难之后，我打鸟退堂鼓，但由于不想让一个搞翻译的美女朋友来和帅哥搭上（哈哈）、自己也很想尝试这个没做过的事情，我拖着严重发炎的嗓子死撑到鸟最后 昨天全程2小时做交替翻译下来，我惊喜地发现！自己的中英文能力和短时记忆比我想象和记忆中的要好很多啊啊啊啊~~~哦也~~~ 帅哥和他的老师反馈也不错，听众的反馈还没问。但是整个经历就是I did something new, I survived, and I feel bigger and more capable! 美中不足的是，即使组织者后面一起吃饭了，我还是觉得很帅哥没实现connection
我不觉得我问这些问题的时候是寻找或者建立日后的利益关系，但是你问了，我想了想，我问这些问题的结果可能还是一种利益关系：我从别人那里得到了我想得到的——看到人的变化和成长，开心也是因为这个，或者说，因为看到我所希望看到的、我认为人身上美的东西（改变、自由、坚持、自省等等），在那一刻我感觉到有至少单方面的connection“he/she is someone I like”——或者这叫做connection么？ 刚才看你的两段话我想了想，之所以没有话回应，要么是对方的答案里我看不到美的东西，要么是我看到了美、但是我能反馈的只有想法“totally agree”“that's amazing/inspiring”、却没有更实质的东西可以给人家，因为我做的事太少了，我所看到的美我自己很少做过，can give nothing new所以就卡住了。 那么，形成connection的谈话起始点，都不应该是问题？因为所有的问题都是一种索取？而应该是说话、分享？精神上的给予？
下边是摘抄： 摘自"Risk Intelligence" Chapter seven, Weighing the Probable Subsection, Natural Born Bayesians?
Let's say I've just been for an HIV test and gotten a positive result. In order to make use of that information, I first have to know how many people like me have HIV. Of course, the phrase "like me" is ambiguous... For the sake of argument,... my reference class is... "English men"...
Let's say about 0.2 percent of English men are HIV-positive; that is the base rate. It is also the probability I should assign to the hypothesis that I am HIV-positive before I get the test result, if I consider just the fact that I am male and English... Byesians would call this the prior probability of the hypothesis.
... Let's assume that if someone has the virus, there is a 99 percent chance that this test will be positive; this is the hit rate. We'll also assume that if someone does not have the virus, there is still a 5 percent chance that the test will be positive; this is the false alarm rate (就是false positive喽).
If we plug all the information into Bayes's Theorem, we can calculate the posterior probability - the probability that I am HIV-positive after taking into account the new evidence provided by the test result. The answer turns out to be just under 4 percent. In other words, the chance that I actually have HIV is still very low, even after I test positive.
(下边是进一步解释) Many of my students are suprised by this, even after I go through the details of how to calculate the answer with Bayes's theorem. Their suprise indicates the prevalence of the base-rate fallacy. Time and again, studies have shown that people fail to take sufficient account of prior probabilities or even completely ignore base rates altogether. The positive test result massively increased the probability that I have HIV, from 0.2 percent to almost 4 percents - an increase of almost 2,000 percent! But since we started off with an extremely low prior probability, the posterior probability was still rather low in absolute terms. If the base rate has been higher, then the situation would be very different. If, for example, I were an adult in Swaziland, where the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS was estimated at over 26 percent in 2008, a positive test result would increase the probability that I have HIV to over 87 percent. It should be clear by now why it is so important to know the base rate when interpreting the results of diagnostic tests - and why ignoring the base rate is a major violation of Bayesian law.
以下是引用meiyoule在7/11/2012 11:42:00 AM的发言： summer我大致理解， 但是不明白这个为什么导致年检一年一次不必要这个结论。 再怎么讨论概率还是在人群这个概念上， 到个人， 查出来positive， 总是个warning， 再确症一次，甚至多找几个医生问问， 就可以达到很高的准确率啊 我觉得可以从两方面看这个问题： 一个是NYT文章提到的，"they can screen for conditions where early detection does not alter the course of the disease, either because the body might heal itself or because there are no effective remedies. In either case they can lead to aggressive procedures to clarify the diagnosis or provide treatment, which themselves can be harmful. "
FOR decades, scientific research has shown that annual physical exams — and many of the screening tests that routinely accompany them — are in many ways pointless or (worse) dangerous, because they can lead to unneeded procedures. The last few years have produced a steady stream of new evidence against the utility of popular tests:
Prostate specific antigen blood tests to detect prostate cancer? No longer recommended by the United States Preventive Services Task Force.
Routine EKGs? No use.
Yearly Pap smears? Nope. (Every three years.)
...
In 1979, a Canadian government task force officially recommended giving up the standard head-to-toe annual physical based on studies showing it to be “nonspecific,” “inefficient” and “potentially harmful,” replacing it instead with a small number of periodic screening tests, which depend in part on a patient’s risk factors for illness.
...
This year the American Board of Internal Medicine Foundation joined forces with Consumer Reports to compile a list of basic medical tests and procedures that are often performed but that don’t add value. The project — called Choosing Wisely — already has a list with dozens of entries, and more will be added in the fall.
...
The only routine blood test currently recommended by the United States Preventive Services Task Force is a cholesterol check every five years.
...
Intensive screening can prove useless for a number of reasons, experts say: Tests can have high rates of “false positives,” signaling that there may be disease, when further tests and procedures reveal none. Likewise, they can screen for conditions where early detection does not alter the course of the disease, either because the body might heal itself or because there are no effective remedies. In either case they can lead to aggressive procedures to clarify the diagnosis or provide treatment, which themselves can be harmful.
...
Many of the screening tests are developed, evaluated and then promoted by specialists and specialty societies — and some prove unhelpful when more widely studied. Specialists are often the last to give up a procedure.
Dr. Brett estimated that 80 percent of urologists still believed the prostate specific antigen tests to be beneficial or worthwhile, compared to only 20 percent of primary care doctors. That test is no longer recommended by the Preventive Services Task Force because prostate cancer is most often an extremely slow growing disease that does not kill, while prostate cancer surgery comes with frequent complications, like incontinence.
“The last patient you saw can influence you more than the study of a huge population,” said Dr. Cassel, an internist who was previously an official at several medical schools. “Urologists see the people who have serious advanced prostate cancer, which is a devastating disease. And they have a tool — surgery — that addresses it. So they want to do it.”
DOCTORS emphasize that in moving away from aggressive screening, they are not endorsing less care for the ill or proscribing preventive care that is helpful. “If you can afford it, there’s a tendency to say ‘why not?’ ” said Dr. Cassel. “Well, there are a lot of reasons: CT scans are very high radiation. Every test comes up with little incidental findings. So you have a cardiac stress test and that will lead to catheterization, which has risks, and it turns up just a normal variant. There’s a therapeutic cascade that follows each test.”
...
As of today, only a few screening tests are recommended as useful for healthy, asymptomatic people by the Preventive Services Task Force and some of those — like blood pressure checks — don’t require a doctor visit and could be performed in a pharmacy. “If you follow their recommendations you hardly do anything to patients,” said Dr. Brett, adding that the most important intervention doctors perform on healthy patients may be counseling about habits. For new patients, he still does the full head-to-toe medical exam — though he does not routinely order blood work — and regards some parts as more or less playacting.
我刚做了一件自认为牛的事，来跟大家得色一下~~ 帅哥组织了个心理学讲座（就是前两天我做海报的那个），主讲讲英语，帅哥让我翻译。我开始有些犹豫，百度了同声传译是多么的难之后，我打鸟退堂鼓，但由于不想让一个搞翻译的美女朋友来和帅哥搭上（哈哈）、自己也很想尝试这个没做过的事情，我拖着严重发炎的嗓子死撑到鸟最后 昨天全程2小时做交替翻译下来，我惊喜地发现！自己的中英文能力和短时记忆比我想象和记忆中的要好很多啊啊啊啊~~~哦也~~~ 帅哥和他的老师反馈也不错，听众的反馈还没问。但是整个经历就是I did something new, I survived, and I feel bigger and more capable! 美中不足的是，即使组织者后面一起吃饭了，我还是觉得很帅哥没实现connection
我觉得可以从两方面看这个问题： 一个是NYT文章提到的，"they can screen for conditions where early detection does not alter the course of the disease, either because the body might heal itself or because there are no effective remedies. In either case they can lead to aggressive procedures to clarify the diagnosis or provide treatment, which themselves can be harmful. "
另外early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 这点我也觉得并不apply to 很多。 或者说， 也有很多疾病， early detection does alter the course of the disease，就是说我们可以有所作为根据早期诊断结果去改变最后的结局， 或者换句话说， 如果early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 那早期detection对这些疾病也没有坏处。。。 真正false positive ---> harmful treatment到底站多大的比例， 这个是个值得讨论的话题
我不觉得我问这些问题的时候是寻找或者建立日后的利益关系，但是你问了，我想了想，我问这些问题的结果可能还是一种利益关系：我从别人那里得到了我想得到的——看到人的变化和成长，开心也是因为这个，或者说，因为看到我所希望看到的、我认为人身上美的东西（改变、自由、坚持、自省等等），在那一刻我感觉到有至少单方面的connection“he/she is someone I like”——或者这叫做connection么？ 刚才看你的两段话我想了想，之所以没有话回应，要么是对方的答案里我看不到美的东西，要么是我看到了美、但是我能反馈的只有想法“totally agree”“that's amazing/inspiring”、却没有更实质的东西可以给人家，因为我做的事太少了，我所看到的美我自己很少做过，can give nothing new所以就卡住了。 那么，形成connection的谈话起始点，都不应该是问题？因为所有的问题都是一种索取？而应该是说话、分享？精神上的给予？
下边是摘抄： 摘自"Risk Intelligence" Chapter seven, Weighing the Probable Subsection, Natural Born Bayesians?
Let's say I've just been for an HIV test and gotten a positive result. In order to make use of that information, I first have to know how many people like me have HIV. Of course, the phrase "like me" is ambiguous... For the sake of argument,... my reference class is... "English men"...
Let's say about 0.2 percent of English men are HIV-positive; that is the base rate. It is also the probability I should assign to the hypothesis that I am HIV-positive before I get the test result, if I consider just the fact that I am male and English... Byesians would call this the prior probability of the hypothesis.
... Let's assume that if someone has the virus, there is a 99 percent chance that this test will be positive; this is the hit rate. We'll also assume that if someone does not have the virus, there is still a 5 percent chance that the test will be positive; this is the false alarm rate (就是false positive喽).
If we plug all the information into Bayes's Theorem, we can calculate the posterior probability - the probability that I am HIV-positive after taking into account the new evidence provided by the test result. The answer turns out to be just under 4 percent. In other words, the chance that I actually have HIV is still very low, even after I test positive.
(下边是进一步解释) Many of my students are suprised by this, even after I go through the details of how to calculate the answer with Bayes's theorem. Their suprise indicates the prevalence of the base-rate fallacy. Time and again, studies have shown that people fail to take sufficient account of prior probabilities or even completely ignore base rates altogether. The positive test result massively increased the probability that I have HIV, from 0.2 percent to almost 4 percents - an increase of almost 2,000 percent! But since we started off with an extremely low prior probability, the posterior probability was still rather low in absolute terms. If the base rate has been higher, then the situation would be very different. If, for example, I were an adult in Swaziland, where the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS was estimated at over 26 percent in 2008, a positive test result would increase the probability that I have HIV to over 87 percent. It should be clear by now why it is so important to know the base rate when interpreting the results of diagnostic tests - and why ignoring the base rate is a major violation of Bayesian law.
就pap 这个事情本身来说， 我以前的OB就有个case, 一个病人第一年好好的， 她拖了一年半-2年， 做的第二次的， 就是晚期了。 当然了，这个可能就是fall into early detection does not alter the course of the disease 也未可知。 但是我非常不赞同这篇文章的论调就是， 我认为美国preventive care是很不好的， 这些文章更让很多人认为preventive care是没有用的。 我觉得是很不好的一个趋势。
另外early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 这点我也觉得并不apply to 很多。 或者说， 也有很多疾病， early detection does alter the course of the disease，就是说我们可以有所作为根据早期诊断结果去改变最后的结局， 或者换句话说， 如果early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 那早期detection对这些疾病也没有坏处。。。 真正false positive ---> harmful treatment到底站多大的比例， 这个是个值得讨论的话题
以下是引用meiyoule在7/11/2012 12:16:00 PM的发言： 就pap 这个事情本身来说， 我以前的OB就有个case, 一个病人第一年好好的， 她拖了一年半-2年， 做的第二次的， 就是晚期了。 当然了，这个可能就是fall into early detection does not alter the course of the disease 也未可知。 但是我非常不赞同这篇文章的论调就是， 我认为美国preventive care是很不好的， 这些文章更让很多人认为preventive care是没有用的。 我觉得是很不好的一个趋势。
就pap 这个事情本身来说， 我以前的OB就有个case, 一个病人第一年好好的， 她拖了一年半-2年， 做的第二次的， 就是晚期了。 当然了，这个可能就是fall into early detection does not alter the course of the disease 也未可知。 但是我非常不赞同这篇文章的论调就是， 我认为美国preventive care是很不好的， 这些文章更让很多人认为preventive care是没有用的。 我觉得是很不好的一个趋势。
以下是引用summerhole在7/10/2012 11:35:00 AM的发言：
没。嘻嘻。不过看到她在CSI里。她好像一开始想演cylon #6的。
BSG里的人经常在别处看到，很亲切。Kyle在演“Fairly Legal”的男二号，挺帅的。Boomer在演“Hawaii 5-O”，那部电视剧挺好看，尤其High-Def的风景shots，美啊。
去dragon*con的时候，去听BSG panel。最后演Odama的演员振臂高呼“So Say We All!” 满场粉丝跟着激动高呼。那句话什么意思啊？LOL，一直不知道。
原来starbuck是一个人啊，汗死，我以为是starbucks
starbuck是Battle Star Galactica里边的一个飞行员。
羽毛球也有这个作用
运动这种主动的锻炼还是好过啥理疗啊牵引啊啥的。。 而且据说打网球啥的对视力也好， 因为老要盯着球来来回回远远近近的
summer，你看到过starbuck在big bang里客座吗？哈哈
呵呵。我记得呢。 我当时还说呢，这个女的很眼熟啊
没。嘻嘻。不过看到她在CSI里。她好像一开始想演cylon #6的。
BSG里的人经常在别处看到，很亲切。Kyle在演“Fairly Legal”的男二号，挺帅的。Boomer在演“Hawaii 5-O”，那部电视剧挺好看，尤其High-Def的风景shots，美啊。
去dragon*con的时候，去听BSG panel。最后演Odama的演员振臂高呼“So Say We All!” 满场粉丝跟着激动高呼。那句话什么意思啊？LOL，一直不知道。
我开始时候觉得boomer特别可爱的。。 后来就觉得她不那么可爱了。 她是亚洲人吧， 哪里的？
这个某人知道了？哈哈，好奇他的反应。
哈哈哈某人知道啊。 我感激涕零的告诉他的。。。
这个热爱争论的坏习惯我也有，近几年慢慢地觉得没有意义了。偶尔还是会忍不住。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 10:04:02编辑过]
也反省一下。。特别这段时间。。。
为啥不提？因为Notes支持奴隶？
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 9:54:50编辑过]
我不太清楚这段儿。 我理解是他呼吁个人自由包括宗教自由等等， 但是自己本人拥有600多个奴隶。。 所以大家很诟病他这个notes.
我开始时候觉得boomer特别可爱的。。 后来就觉得她不那么可爱了。 她是亚洲人吧， 哪里的？
她是韩国血统吧？因为名字是Park。
我也是哎，一是她的神情我看不懂，二是她后来反人类了。
也反省一下。。特别这段时间。。。
我也反省。franklin说“I was not content with being in the right... but was overbearing and rather insolent...”
希望我不是insolent （粗野、无理）。
如果感觉我开始傲慢了，请大家纠正哈！
运动这种主动的锻炼还是好过啥理疗啊牵引啊啥的。。 而且据说打网球啥的对视力也好， 因为老要盯着球来来回回远远近近的
有道理。
我也反省。franklin说“I was not content with being in the right... but was overbearing and rather insolent...”
希望我不是insolent （粗野、无理）。
如果感觉我开始傲慢了，请大家纠正哈！
这本书我还是有点儿看不下去。。。 觉得英语很生涩啊。。。 中文版本的开始也有点儿鸡毛蒜皮的。。。。
这本书我还是有点儿看不下去。。。 觉得英语很生涩啊。。。 中文版本的开始也有点儿鸡毛蒜皮的。。。。
嗯，这本书得静下来慢慢看。我觉得英文生涩只是表象，看看就习惯了。
这个图书馆真好看！
是啊，我也很喜欢。
是啊，我也很喜欢。
UVA 的 圆形图书馆也很美啊。。 前面，
后面，
里面
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 14:04:53编辑过]
…my father happened to find my papers and read them. Without entering into the discussion, he took occasion to talk to me about the manner of my writing; observed that, though I had the advantage of my antagonist in correct spelling and pointing (which I ow'd to the printing-house), I fell far short in elegance of expression, in method and in perspicuity, of which he convinced me by several instances. I saw the justice of his remarks, and thence grew more attentive to the manner in writing, and determined to endeavor at improvement.
About this time I met with an odd volume of the Spectator.[18] It was the third. I had never before seen any of them. I bought it, read it over and over, and was much delighted with it. I thought the writing excellent, and wished, if possible, to imitate it. With this view I took some of the papers, and, making short hints of the sentiment in each sentence, laid them by a few days, and then, without looking at the book, try'd to compleat the papers again, by expressing each hinted sentiment at length, and as fully as it had been expressed before, in any suitable words that should come to hand. Then I compared my Spectator with the original, discovered some of my faults, and corrected them. But I found I wanted a stock of words, or a readiness in recollecting and using them, which I thought I should have acquired before that time if I had gone on making verses; since the continual occasion for words of the same import, but of different length, to suit the measure, or of different sound for the rhyme, would have laid me under a constant necessity of searching for variety, and also have tended to fix that variety in my mind, and make me master of it. Therefore I took some of the tales and turned them into verse; and, after a time, when I had pretty well forgotten the prose, turned them back again. I also sometimes jumbled my collections of hints into confusion, and after some weeks endeavored to reduce them into the best order, before I began to form the full sentences and compleat the paper. This was to teach me method in the arrangement of thoughts. By comparing my work afterwards with the original, I discovered many faults and amended them; but I sometimes had the pleasure of fancying that, in certain particulars of small import, I had been lucky enough to improve the method of the language, and this encouraged me to think I might possibly in time come to be a tolerable English writer, of which I was extremely ambitious. My time for these exercises and for reading was at night, after work or before it began in the morning, or on Sundays。。。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 14:16:35编辑过]
My parents had early given me religious impressions, and brought me through my childhood piously in the Dissenting way. But I was scarce fifteen, when, after doubting by turns of several points, as I found them disputed in the different books I read, I began to doubt of Revelation itself. Some books against Deism fell into my hands; they were said to be the substance of sermons preached at Boyle's Lectures. It happened that they wrought an effect on me quite contrary to what was intended by them; for the arguments of the Deists, which were quoted to be refuted, appeared to me much stronger than the refutations; in short, I soon became a thorough Deist. … I began to suspect that this doctrine, tho' it might be true, was not very useful. My London pamphlet, which had for its motto these lines of Dryden:
"Whatever is, is right. Though purblind man Sees but a part o' the chain, the nearest link: His eyes not carrying to the equal beam, That poises all above;"
and from the attributes of God, his infinite wisdom, goodness and power, concluded that nothing could possibly be wrong in the world, and that vice and virtue were empty distinctions, no such things existing, appear'd now not so clever a performance as I once thought it; and I doubted whether some error had not insinuated itself unperceiv'd into my argument, so as to infect all that follow'd, as is common in metaphysical reasonings.
I grew convinc'd that truth, sincerity and integrity in dealings between man and man were of the utmost importance to the felicity of life; and I form'd written resolutions…
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 14:18:15编辑过]
月书前言摘抄1: 3404
月书前言摘抄2: 3457
月书前言摘抄3: 3462
月书前言摘抄4: 3484
月书前言摘抄5: 3487
月书前言摘抄6: 3493
月书摘抄1: 3503
月书摘抄2: 3510
月书摘抄3: 3438
月书摘抄4: 3511
月书摘抄5: 3558
月书摘抄6: 3228
月书摘抄7: 3230
月书摘抄8: 3254
月书摘抄9: 3255
月书摘抄10: 3559
11, 12, 13, 15: 357
14: 3446
16 - 20 : 366
21,22: 374
23,24,25: 375
26-30: 380
31-38: 384
全文完
There are croakers in every country, always boding its ruin. Such a one then lived in Philadelphia; a person of note, an elderly man, with a wise look and a very grave manner of speaking; his name was Samuel Mickle. This gentleman, a stranger to me, stopt one day at my door, and asked me if I was the young man who had lately opened a new printing-house. Being answered in the affirmative, he said he was sorry for me, because it was an expensive undertaking, and the expense would be lost; for Philadelphia was a sinking place, the people already half-bankrupts, or near being so; all appearances to the contrary, such as new buildings and the rise of rents, being to his certain knowledge fallacious; for they were, in fact, among the things that would soon ruin us. And he gave me such a detail of misfortunes now existing, or that were soon to exist, that he left me half melancholy. Had I known him before I engaged in this business, probably I never should have done it. This man continued to live in this decaying place, and to declaim in the same strain, refusing for many years to buy a house there, because all was going to destruction; and at last I had the pleasure of seeing him give five times as much for one as he might have bought it for when he first began his croaking.
月书摘抄12，关于俱乐部
I should have mentioned before, that, in the autumn of the preceding year, I had form'd most of my ingenious acquaintance into a club of mutual improvement, which was called the Junto;[54] we met on Friday evenings. The rules that I drew up required that every member, in his turn, should produce one or more queries on any point of Morals, Politics, or Natural Philosophy, to be discuss'd by the company; and once in three months produce and read an essay of his own writing, on any subject he pleased. Our debates were to be under the direction of a president, and to be conducted in the sincere spirit of inquiry after truth, without fondness for dispute, or desire of victory; and, to prevent warmth, all expressions of positiveness in opinions, or direct contradiction, were after some time made contraband, and prohibited under small pecuniary penalties.
… (省略对其他成员的介绍)
And William Coleman, then a merchant's clerk, about my age, who had the coolest, clearest head, the bestheart, and the exactest morals of almost any man I ever met with. He became afterwards a merchant of great note, and one of our provincial judges. Our friendship continued without interruption to his death, upwards of forty years; and the club continued almost as long, and was the best school of philosophy, morality, and politics that then existed in the province; for our queries, which were read the week preceding their discussion, put us upon reading with attention upon the several subjects, that we might speak more to the purpose; and here, too, we acquired better habits of conversation, everything being studied in our rules which might prevent our disgusting each other. From hence the long continuance of the club, which I shall have frequent occasion to speak further of hereafter.
[54] A Spanish term meaning a combination for political intrigue; here a club or society.
月书摘抄13，关于表象
I began now gradually to pay off the debt I was under for the printing-house. In order to secure my credit and character as a tradesman, I took care not only to be in reality industrious and frugal, but to avoid all appearances to the contrary. I drest plainly; I was seen at no places of idle diversion. I never went out a fishing or shooting; a book, indeed, sometimes debauch'd me from my work, but that was seldom, snug, and gave no scandal; and, to show that I was not above my business, I sometimes brought home the paper I purchas'd at the stores thro' the streets on a wheelbarrow. Thus being esteem'd an industrious, thriving young man, and paying duly for what I bought, the merchants who imported stationery solicited my custom; others proposed supplying me with books, and I went on swimmingly.
光有真功夫不行，还得做足表面功夫
月书摘抄15，关于争功
And now I set on foot my first project of a public nature, that for a subscription library….
When we were about to sign the above mentioned articles, which were to be binding on us, our heirs, etc., for fifty years, Mr. Brockden, the scrivener, said to us, "You are young men, but it is scarcely probable that any of you will live to see the expiration of the term fix'd in the instrument." A number of us, however, are yet living; but the instrument was after a few years rendered null by a charter that incorporated and gave perpetuity to the company.
The objections and reluctances I met with in soliciting the subscriptions, made me soon feel the impropriety of presenting one's self as the proposer of any useful project, that might be suppos'd to raise one's reputation in the smallest degree above that of one's neighbours, when one has need of their assistance to accomplish that project. I therefore put myself as much as I could out of sight, and stated it as a scheme of a number of friends, who had requested me to go about and propose it to such as they thought lovers of reading. In this way my affair went on more smoothly, and I ever after practis'd it on such occasions; and, from my frequent successes, can heartily recommend it. The present little sacrifice of your vanity will afterwards be amply repaid. If it remains a while uncertain to whom the merit belongs, someone more vain than yourself will be encouraged to claim it, and then even envy will be disposed to do you justice by plucking those assumed feathers, and restoring them to their right owner.
我不太清楚这段儿。 我理解是他呼吁个人自由包括宗教自由等等， 但是自己本人拥有600多个奴隶。。 所以大家很诟病他这个notes.
是因为他在notes里提出的观点是自由的黑人和白人不能在同一个社会里共同生活，miscegenation。
其实notes里他写了很多东西啊，政府和宗教的分割，checks and balances，可惜大部分人都只关注奴隶这个主题。
我们去年去montessori的时候我跟tour guide聊了聊jefferson和他的奴隶们。那个tour guide说根据文献，他一生中还是解放了很多奴隶。而且即使是为他服务的奴隶们，他也尽量教给他们一些生存的技能，比如说厨房的奴隶，他有特意让他们学习法国料理，为的就是将来能够有employable skills，而且除了提供吃穿住，有些比较高级的奴隶也能拿到一些工钱。
我不是说奴隶制就是对的，但是在当时的那个大环境下，结合他受过的教育，我认为他做的很不错了。而且他能够因为自己呼吁自由而反思自己对奴隶的拥有权，进而做出改进，已经是很难得了。
是因为他在notes里提出的观点是自由的黑人和白人不能在同一个社会里共同生活，miscegenation。
其实notes里他写了很多东西啊，政府和宗教的分割，checks and balances，可惜大部分人都只关注奴隶这个主题。
我们去年去montessori的时候我跟tour guide聊了聊jefferson和他的奴隶们。那个tour guide说根据文献，他一生中还是解放了很多奴隶。而且即使是为他服务的奴隶们，他也尽量教给他们一些生存的技能，比如说厨房的奴隶，他有特意让他们学习法国料理，为的就是将来能够有employable skills，而且除了提供吃穿住，有些比较高级的奴隶也能拿到一些工钱。
我不是说奴隶制就是对的，但是在当时的那个大环境下，结合他受过的教育，我认为他做的很不错了。而且他能够因为自己呼吁自由而反思自己对奴隶的拥有权，进而做出改进，已经是很难得了。
你们的guide还说了挺多的。。我们的guide没说那么多， 我就是只言片语里理解他对这个Notes其实还是很自豪的，和独立宣言， UVA并列是他自己认为的三大终身成就， 但可能就因为这个奴隶问题这个Notes是不是就对后世影响没那么大了。。。 我也觉得看人要看历史大背景啊。 除非他是穿回去的
月书前言摘抄1: 3404
月书前言摘抄2: 3457
月书前言摘抄3: 3462
月书前言摘抄4: 3484
月书前言摘抄5: 3487
月书前言摘抄6: 3493
月书摘抄1: 3503
月书摘抄2: 3510
月书摘抄3: 3438
月书摘抄4: 3511
月书摘抄5: 3558
月书摘抄6: 3228
月书摘抄7: 3230
月书摘抄8: 3254
月书摘抄9: 3255
月书摘抄10: 3559
11, 12, 13, 15: 357
14: 3446
是因为他在notes里提出的观点是自由的黑人和白人不能在同一个社会里共同生活，miscegenation。
其实notes里他写了很多东西啊，政府和宗教的分割，checks and balances，可惜大部分人都只关注奴隶这个主题。
我们去年去montessori的时候我跟tour guide聊了聊jefferson和他的奴隶们。那个tour guide说根据文献，他一生中还是解放了很多奴隶。而且即使是为他服务的奴隶们，他也尽量教给他们一些生存的技能，比如说厨房的奴隶，他有特意让他们学习法国料理，为的就是将来能够有employable skills，而且除了提供吃穿住，有些比较高级的奴隶也能拿到一些工钱。
我不是说奴隶制就是对的，但是在当时的那个大环境下，结合他受过的教育，我认为他做的很不错了。而且他能够因为自己呼吁自由而反思自己对奴隶的拥有权，进而做出改进，已经是很难得了。
谢谢阿妙的讲解。我对此一无所知。
-Thomas Jefferson, Notes on Virginia, 1782
什么感触？
家庭交流是很重要的，而且对孩子们的重要性和他们一生的影响很可能远远超过了家长的想象。
Franklin在回忆录里写他爸爸请那些朋友来吃饭，而且他可以感觉到这些人不是随意请来的狗肉朋友，而是他爸爸刻意请来，聊的话题也是有选择的。
我刚好联系到上周末的经历。大伙聊天的时候，有个人提起他小时候，家里吃晚饭的时候，他爸爸要求每个人都要说一件当天发生的让他感到grateful的事情，或者是让他学到了处世为人的道理的事情。他说现在他也努力做到和孩子们吃晚饭，听听孩子们说些让他们感恩的事情。他还说从孩子们嘴里说出来的一些听起来稀松平常的事情，看到孩子们感恩的样子他也很被感动，他也希望孩子们能记住他今天所做的，让孩子们了解到感恩之心要长存，不只是每年吃火鸡的时候才会有的时刻。
people alone. The people themselves, therefore, are its only safe
depositories. And to render even them safe, their minds must be
improved to a certain degree." --Thomas Jefferson: Notes on
Virginia, 1782.
labor, are boarded in the houses of good farmers, to whom a
stipulated sum is annually paid. To those who are able to help
themselves a little, or have friends from whom they derive some
succor, inadequate however to their full maintenance,
supplementary aids are given which enable them to live
comfortably in their own houses, or in the houses of their
friends. --Thomas Jefferson: Notes on Virginia, 1782.
http://www.famguardian.org/Subjects/Politics/ThomasJefferson/jeff5.htm
Jefferson这句话没看懂啊。 这和 uniformity怎么牵扯上的？
我是这样理解的：基督教教义是天下一统，大家都信一个神。但是基督教本身就很分裂，基督教的引入，造成了社会的进一步分裂，和“统一”云云相去甚远。
Jefferson这句话没看懂啊。 这和 uniformity怎么牵扯上的？
因为这些人被迫害就是因为当时的执政者想要uniformity。不论是罗马帝国迫害基督徒，还是后来基督徒的十字军东征，都是打着除异存己的口号。
家庭交流是很重要的，而且对孩子们的重要性和他们一生的影响很可能远远超过了家长的想象。
Franklin在回忆录里写他爸爸请那些朋友来吃饭，而且他可以感觉到这些人不是随意请来的狗肉朋友，而是他爸爸刻意请来，聊的话题也是有选择的。
我刚好联系到上周末的经历。大伙聊天的时候，有个人提起他小时候，家里吃晚饭的时候，他爸爸要求每个人都要说一件当天发生的让他感到grateful的事情，或者是让他学到了处世为人的道理的事情。他说现在他也努力做到和孩子们吃晚饭，听听孩子们说些让他们感恩的事情。他还说从孩子们嘴里说出来的一些听起来稀松平常的事情，看到孩子们感恩的样子他也很被感动，他也希望孩子们能记住他今天所做的，让孩子们了解到感恩之心要长存，不只是每年吃火鸡的时候才会有的时刻。
我是这样理解的：基督教教义是天下一统，大家都信一个神。但是基督教本身就很分裂，基督教的引入，造成了社会的进一步分裂，和“统一”云云相去甚远。
啊。我老是反应不过来这一个神， 大概和中国从来没有一个神这个概念有关的。。。 前两天那谁离婚， 我还听到了christian science啥的， 以前我很无知的一位scientology也是基督教的一个分支
谢谢阿妙的讲解。我对此一无所知。
只到去年为止我也不知道。小没推荐我们去montessori以及附近几个总统的故居，我才作了点功课。
我们时间不是很多就没都玩，只挑了最感兴趣的jefferson。当时montessori有好几个tour，我们参加了两个，一个是garden tour，看他的庄园和菜地的，还有一个in-depth tour，连他的厨房，酒窖都逛了一圈。
后来时间比较富裕，大伙都在拍照什么的，我就瞅个机会拉着tour guide聊了半天。我们的tour guide就是个学历史的小姑娘，挺不错的。
家庭交流是很重要的，而且对孩子们的重要性和他们一生的影响很可能远远超过了家长的想象。
Franklin在回忆录里写他爸爸请那些朋友来吃饭，而且他可以感觉到这些人不是随意请来的狗肉朋友，而是他爸爸刻意请来，聊的话题也是有选择的。
我刚好联系到上周末的经历。大伙聊天的时候，有个人提起他小时候，家里吃晚饭的时候，他爸爸要求每个人都要说一件当天发生的让他感到grateful的事情，或者是让他学到了处世为人的道理的事情。他说现在他也努力做到和孩子们吃晚饭，听听孩子们说些让他们感恩的事情。他还说从孩子们嘴里说出来的一些听起来稀松平常的事情，看到孩子们感恩的样子他也很被感动，他也希望孩子们能记住他今天所做的，让孩子们了解到感恩之心要长存，不只是每年吃火鸡的时候才会有的时刻。
聪慧的阿妙。
看到一篇文章，"8 steps to stress-proof your day"，有一步就是"notice at least one good thing you experience every day."
不是因为感恩是对的，所以我们要去做；而是因为感恩心对我们自己有益，所以它是对的。
Franklin说的这段话就是这个道理："though certain actions might not be bad because they were forbidden by it, or good because it commanded them, yet probably these actions might be forbidden because they were bad for us, or commanded because they were beneficial to us, in their own natures, all the circumstances of things considered."
只到去年为止我也不知道。小没推荐我们去montessori以及附近几个总统的故居，我才作了点功课。
我们时间不是很多就没都玩，只挑了最感兴趣的jefferson。当时montessori有好几个tour，我们参加了两个，一个是garden tour，看他的庄园和菜地的，还有一个in-depth tour，连他的厨房，酒窖都逛了一圈。
后来时间比较富裕，大伙都在拍照什么的，我就瞅个机会拉着tour guide聊了半天。我们的tour guide就是个学历史的小姑娘，挺不错的。
我们上次的guide是UvA的学生， 习历史的， 住在UVA senior 才能住的那academic village里面（这个就是jefferson的设计， 非常有特点， 我很喜欢很喜欢）。。somehow就觉得以前战国时候那些食客啊就是这样住的。。汗。。。 他就大讲特讲UVA。。这次的guide 是个女的， 感觉就是短暂来打工的。。就是重复基本的， 连独立宣言在哪里都不知道。。
我们上次的guide是UvA的学生， 习历史的， 住在UVA senior 才能住的那academic village里面（这个就是jefferson的设计， 非常有特点， 我很喜欢很喜欢）。。somehow就觉得以前战国时候那些食客啊就是这样住的。。汗。。。 他就大讲特讲UVA。。这次的guide 是个女的， 感觉就是短暂来打工的。。就是重复基本的， 连独立宣言在哪里都不知道。。
哈哈哈，看得出来哪些是认真的好学生，哪些就是来混日子的。
聪慧的阿妙。
看到一篇文章，"8 steps to stress-proof your day"，有一步就是"notice at least one good thing you experience every day."
不是因为感恩是对的，所以我们要去做；而是因为感恩心对我们自己有益，所以它是对的。
Franklin说的这段话就是这个道理："though certain actions might not be bad because they were forbidden by it, or good because it commanded them, yet probably these actions might be forbidden because they were bad for us, or commanded because they were beneficial to us, in their own natures, all the circumstances of things considered."
嘻嘻嘻，我发现对我最管用的stress reduction就是光棍心理，特别是工作上的事情。
以前好几次压力大的时候我发现我人坐在电脑前，下颌都绷得紧紧地，一天下来真是累死。后来在公司越混越光棍，反正我不是CEO，出了事儿总有上级顶着，而且我做的东西真没不是什么生死攸关的大事儿。慢慢看开了压力就小多了。
偶发现偶错过了亚麻出卷的八卦。。哈哈哈。。 不过看到亚麻的老公的新照片， 不得不说， 男人头发很重要啊。。。 我记得n 年前看到觉得长的还行的。。
我一开始看了一点，都不知道亚麻是谁，好像就是个网络人物？照片在哪儿？
哈哈哈，网上大众也真厉害，为了个网络人物也能起那么高的楼。
我一开始看了一点，都不知道亚麻是谁，好像就是个网络人物？照片在哪儿？
哈哈哈，网上大众也真厉害，为了个网络人物也能起那么高的楼。
亚麻就是那个有三个漂亮女娃的妈妈， 最近又生了个男娃。 别的不说， 博客很美， 也用心也文字的。。 这次的矛盾据说她在背后八卦人家。。。。 其实我觉得这个事情说实在的可大可小。。 不想别人背后说自己的话 就不要把秘密告诉别人。 真的， 守秘密是一件非常困难的事情。。。 至于她有没有搬弄是非那500多楼我也没勇气爬。。。
当娃不听话zt不听话的时候，尤其要经常提醒自己记得感恩。
我自己很喜欢有信仰的同志饭前祷告这种活动，一粥一饭当思来之不易，一针一线恒念物力唯艰。稀松平常的东西才要不断提醒自己珍惜 以下是引用Emichan在7/10/2012 3:11:00 PM的发言：
家庭交流是很重要的，而且对孩子们的重要性和他们一生的影响很可能远远超过了家长的想象。
Franklin在回忆录里写他爸爸请那些朋友来吃饭，而且他可以感觉到这些人不是随意请来的狗肉朋友，而是他爸爸刻意请来，聊的话题也是有选择的。
我刚好联系到上周末的经历。大伙聊天的时候，有个人提起他小时候，家里吃晚饭的时候，他爸爸要求每个人都要说一件当天发生的让他感到grateful的事情，或者是让他学到了处世为人的道理的事情。他说现在他也努力做到和孩子们吃晚饭，听听孩子们说些让他们感恩的事情。他还说从孩子们嘴里说出来的一些听起来稀松平常的事情，看到孩子们感恩的样子他也很被感动，他也希望孩子们能记住他今天所做的，让孩子们了解到感恩之心要长存，不只是每年吃火鸡的时候才会有的时刻。
同感。当小皮蛋睡了家里安静下来的时候，我经常自己默默地感谢老天感谢生活，给了我那么好的老公那么好的娃。
当娃不听话zt不听话的时候，尤其要经常提醒自己记得感恩。
我自己很喜欢有信仰的同志饭前祷告这种活动，一粥一饭当思来之不易，一针一线恒念物力唯艰。稀松平常的东西才要不断提醒自己珍惜
我昨晚而还和某人感慨。 我说从来没想到过，头是头， 脖子是脖子， 肩膀是肩膀是这么值得感谢的一件事情。。。 我这4天， 头， 脖子， 肩膀是一体的， tnnd, 真是难受啊。。。 现在我很感恩， 这三样是三样东西了。。下午回去争取再和某人打打球
嘻嘻嘻，我发现对我最管用的stress reduction就是光棍心理，特别是工作上的事情。
以前好几次压力大的时候我发现我人坐在电脑前，下颌都绷得紧紧地，一天下来真是累死。后来在公司越混越光棍，反正我不是CEO，出了事儿总有上级顶着，而且我做的东西真没不是什么生死攸关的大事儿。慢慢看开了压力就小多了。
求光棍心理，是啥意思?
中国人也讲 勿论人非 嘛。我觉得老富跟中国传统美德满合拍的
以下是引用meiyoule在7/10/2012 3:51:00 PM的发言：
亚麻就是那个有三个漂亮女娃的妈妈， 最近又生了个男娃。 别的不说， 博客很美， 也用心也文字的。。 这次的矛盾据说她在背后八卦人家。。。。 其实我觉得这个事情说实在的可大可小。。 不想别人背后说自己的话 就不要把秘密告诉别人。 真的， 守秘密是一件非常困难的事情。。。 至于她有没有搬弄是非那500多楼我也没勇气爬。。。
以下是引用meiyoule在7/10/2012 3:54:00 PM的发言：
我昨晚而还和某人感慨。 我说从来没想到过，头是头， 脖子是脖子， 肩膀是肩膀是这么值得感谢的一件事情。。。 我这4天， 头， 脖子， 肩膀是一体的， tnnd, 真是难受啊。。。 现在我很感恩， 这三样是三样东西了。。下午回去争取再和某人打打球
前面谁摘要富兰克林说的，七个美德之一吧，Silence: 对人没有好处的话不要说。
中国人也讲 勿论人非 嘛。我觉得老富跟中国传统美德满合拍的
其实我觉得把秘密说给别人也是一件不太合适的事情。。。 因为这是出自自己本人的需要， 如果这样说了， 把自己的负担加给了别人 那最好还是不要强求别人能守住。。。。 不过据说亚麻这个事情， 好像有她借着宗教的名义， 鼓励别人告诉她秘密， 这个又另当别论了
富兰克林13箴言：
1. 节制
2. 节言
3. 秩序
4. 决心
5. 节俭
6. 勤劳
7. 诚实
8. 正直
9. 中庸
10. 整洁
11. 宁静
12. 贞洁
13. 谦虚
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 17:09:13编辑过]
真菌类占优势会有什么后果啊？等听你的专家意见！
这个热爱争论的坏习惯我也有，近几年慢慢地觉得没有意义了。偶尔还是会忍不住。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 10:04:02编辑过]
如何区分争论和讨论？如何让自己讨论的欲望和动作不会像争论？
就是我想干啥，就鼓动他去，不去也无所谓。在我热爱的活动中看看他表现如何，是不是跟我有共同语言。如果想滚，可以建议去酒吧，这个好象中美很一致，哈哈！
受教！这是我喜欢的模式，我这一根筋就不会拐弯抹角！
总结351-360
月书摘抄
3511
3558
3559
3560 summer总结341-350页月书摘抄
3561
3563-3565
3576
其他
Emichan 3567
以下是引用meiyoule在7/10/2012 1:20:00 PM的发言：
我不太清楚这段儿。 我理解是他呼吁个人自由包括宗教自由等等， 但是自己本人拥有600多个奴隶。。 所以大家很诟病他这个notes.
是因为他在notes里提出的观点是自由的黑人和白人不能在同一个社会里共同生活，miscegenation。
其实notes里他写了很多东西啊，政府和宗教的分割，checks and balances，可惜大部分人都只关注奴隶这个主题。
我们去年去montessori的时候我跟tour guide聊了聊jefferson和他的奴隶们。那个tour guide说根据文献，他一生中还是解放了很多奴隶。而且即使是为他服务的奴隶们，他也尽量教给他们一些生存的技能，比如说厨房的奴隶，他有特意让他们学习法国料理，为的就是将来能够有employable skills，而且除了提供吃穿住，有些比较高级的奴隶也能拿到一些工钱。
我不是说奴隶制就是对的，但是在当时的那个大环境下，结合他受过的教育，我认为他做的很不错了。而且他能够因为自己呼吁自由而反思自己对奴隶的拥有权，进而做出改进，已经是很难得了。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 21:40:53编辑过]
帅哥组织了个心理学讲座（就是前两天我做海报的那个），主讲讲英语，帅哥让我翻译。我开始有些犹豫，百度了同声传译是多么的难之后，我打鸟退堂鼓，但由于不想让一个搞翻译的美女朋友来和帅哥搭上（哈哈）、自己也很想尝试这个没做过的事情，我拖着严重发炎的嗓子死撑到鸟最后
昨天全程2小时做交替翻译下来，我惊喜地发现！自己的中英文能力和短时记忆比我想象和记忆中的要好很多啊啊啊啊~~~哦也~~~
帅哥和他的老师反馈也不错，听众的反馈还没问。但是整个经历就是I did something new, I survived, and I feel bigger and more capable!
美中不足的是，即使组织者后面一起吃饭了，我还是觉得很帅哥没实现connection
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 21:15:10编辑过]
不看书浑身难受啊， 不过说实在的， 月书看看摘抄讨论讨论还挺不错的， 真看我还是有点儿看不下去啊。。。 还有啥好书推荐不？ 那difficult conversations我翻了， 不咋的。。
Risk Intelligence - How to Live with Unvertainty, by Dylan Evans.
里边讲到bayes' rule，和咱们讨论的身体年检、false positive很有点关系。等我有时间详细说一下。总之使我觉得年检更加弊大于利了。
还有就是建议你去goodreads.com上找找。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 21:30:15编辑过]
帅哥组织了个心理学讲座（就是前两天我做海报的那个），主讲讲英语，帅哥让我翻译。我开始有些犹豫，百度了同声传译是多么的难之后，我打鸟退堂鼓，但由于不想让一个搞翻译的美女朋友来和帅哥搭上（哈哈）、自己也很想尝试这个没做过的事情，我拖着严重发炎的嗓子死撑到鸟最后
昨天全程2小时做交替翻译下来，我惊喜地发现！自己的中英文能力和短时记忆比我想象和记忆中的要好很多啊啊啊啊~~~哦也~~~
帅哥和他的老师反馈也不错，听众的反馈还没问。但是整个经历就是I did something new, I survived, and I feel bigger and more capable!
美中不足的是，即使组织者后面一起吃饭了，我还是觉得很帅哥没实现connection
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 21:15:10编辑过]
cong！
cong！
谢
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 21:44:05编辑过]
我跟别人交流的时候，经常问一些问题，比如你为什么会选择这个行业啊、为什么做了这个啊，去过哪儿啊有什么收获啊等等。这种问题一般会引来对方很高兴的一串有意思的答复，我听得也很开心，但是！听完了之后，我就只剩开心了，没有想法或者进一步的问题要说！刚要建立起来的connection似乎就断了
大家说怎么处理这种情况并保持联系捏？
开始看bg第三季，好压抑啊
呵呵，没准儿这就是为什么某人骗你的原因。不过，压抑的还在后面呢，你昨天说觉得后面比前面好看多了，我就停顿了一下，不是后面不好看，而是压抑是不同的色彩了
我有个问题捏
我跟别人交流的时候，经常问一些问题，比如你为什么会选择这个行业啊、为什么做了这个啊，去过哪儿啊有什么收获啊等等。这种问题一般会引来对方很高兴的一串有意思的答复，我听得也很开心，但是！听完了之后，我就只剩开心了，没有想法或者进一步的问题要说！刚要建立起来的connection似乎就断了
大家说怎么处理这种情况并保持联系捏？
我不觉得上面这些问题有任何的connection，至少对我没有，connection是人与人之间的，或者利益与利益之间的，上面的问题更倾向于在日后的利益中寻找或者建立；其次，自己听的开心是真的听得开心还是因为自己的问题给了很多人展现自己的机会，所以从对方满足的神情中，自己也获得了满足？
我不觉得上面这些问题有任何的connection，至少对我没有，connection是人与人之间的，或者利益与利益之间的，上面的问题更倾向于在日后的利益中寻找或者建立；其次，自己听的开心是真的听得开心还是因为自己的问题给了很多人展现自己的机会，所以从对方满足的神情中，自己也获得了满足？
什么样的问题有connection呢？
当然是要真的感兴趣的问题。每个人的不一样。是否善于倾听才能发现别人对什么真的感兴趣？red说的那些，都是不错的开场问题。在谈论这些问题的时候，一般会有能过渡到进一步交流的引子吧？
嗯嗯你看没看过"A Single Man"? 里边有几句我喜欢的话。有一句就是关于connection，大意是生命中真正有意义的瞬间，是你经历到真正的人与人之间的connection的瞬间。
highlight的那句没看懂。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/11 1:40:50编辑过]
什么样的问题有connection呢？
当然是要真的感兴趣的问题。每个人的不一样。是否善于倾听才能发现别人对什么真的感兴趣？还是有比较好的开场问题，每个人都关心、喜欢探讨的问题？
嗯嗯你看没看过"A Single Man"? 里边有几句我喜欢的话。有一句就是关于connection，大意是生命中真正有意义的瞬间，是你经历到真正的人与人之间的connection的瞬间。
那你觉得什么样的问题有connection呢？
我很少会问问题；我感到connection不是问题或者话题本身，还是因为某人对某事物的看法和自己的有可连系的时侯吧，感到某人在说着和自己一样的语言，或者自己从某人的视角中领悟到了什么的时侯。
我没有看过，是电影吗？我搜了一下；这句话到是让我感到在感到connection的瞬间，感到了温暖，因为不是独自的吧？
我不觉得上面这些问题有任何的connection，至少对我没有，connection是人与人之间的，或者利益与利益之间的，上面的问题更倾向于在日后的利益中寻找或者建立；其次，自己听的开心是真的听得开心还是因为自己的问题给了很多人展现自己的机会，所以从对方满足的神情中，自己也获得了满足？
我不觉得我问这些问题的时候是寻找或者建立日后的利益关系，但是你问了，我想了想，我问这些问题的结果可能还是一种利益关系：我从别人那里得到了我想得到的——看到人的变化和成长，开心也是因为这个，或者说，因为看到我所希望看到的、我认为人身上美的东西（改变、自由、坚持、自省等等），在那一刻我感觉到有至少单方面的connection“he/she is someone I like”——或者这叫做connection么？
刚才看你的两段话我想了想，之所以没有话回应，要么是对方的答案里我看不到美的东西，要么是我看到了美、但是我能反馈的只有想法“totally agree”“that's amazing/inspiring”、却没有更实质的东西可以给人家，因为我做的事太少了，我所看到的美我自己很少做过，can give nothing new所以就卡住了。
那么，形成connection的谈话起始点，都不应该是问题？因为所有的问题都是一种索取？而应该是说话、分享？精神上的给予？
Risk Intelligence - How to Live with Unvertainty, by Dylan Evans.
里边讲到bayes' rule，和咱们讨论的身体年检、false positive很有点关系。等我有时间详细说一下。总之使我觉得年检更加弊大于利了。
还有就是建议你去goodreads.com上找找。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 21:30:15编辑过]
interesting, RQ... 昨天你给的那个link我晚上准备看的时候， 结果我instapaper app 坏了。。。。 没看成。。。。。这个false positive， 我不太理解为什么就弊了。。 一般总是要再确症一下不是么。。
呵呵，没准儿这就是为什么某人骗你的原因。不过，压抑的还在后面呢，你昨天说觉得后面比前面好看多了，我就停顿了一下，不是后面不好看，而是压抑是不同的色彩了
昨晚才搞明白。 我们看已经是n年前了。 估计是4年前， 某人不晓得从哪儿搞来1，2季度的DVD， 看完后没搞到第三季度的还是当时还没拍完？ 就和我说没拍完。。 后来也没有再看了。 大概是这么个过程。。。。 昨晚开始看的时候， 就我在看， 他还没多少兴趣。。。后来我看了10分钟完全没看明白， 因为记不得前因后果了， 就把他拽来给我解释。。 结果他也看上了兴趣。。 我看明白点儿以后， 觉得很黑暗啊很压抑的。。。
昨晚才搞明白。 我们看已经是n年前了。 估计是4年前， 某人不晓得从哪儿搞来1，2季度的DVD， 看完后没搞到第三季度的还是当时还没拍完？ 就和我说没拍完。。 后来也没有再看了。 大概是这么个过程。。。。 昨晚开始看的时候， 就我在看， 他还没多少兴趣。。。后来我看了10分钟完全没看明白， 因为记不得前因后果了， 就把他拽来给我解释。。 结果他也看上了兴趣。。 我看明白点儿以后， 觉得很黑暗啊很压抑的。。。
我上一次看也是5年前了，也是没拍完，但是我看到了第三季，也许没看完，然后又赶上writer罢工；主创和主要演员也是说后面比较dark；我觉得是比较压抑的感觉，第四季恐怕会更压抑吧，我觉得
那你觉得什么样的问题有connection呢？我很少会问问题；我感到connection不是问题或者话题本身，还是因为某人对某事物的看法和自己的有可连系的时侯吧，感到某人在说着和自己一样的语言，或者自己从某人的视角中领悟到了什么的时侯。
我没有看过，是电影吗？我搜了一下；这句话到是让我感到在感到connection的瞬间，感到了温暖，因为不是独自的吧？
我特感兴趣的问题、话题。
re描红的话。确实是这种感觉。
我特感兴趣的问题、话题。
re描红的话。确实是这种感觉。
我会比较喜欢这样的话题，因为是真正的交流吧，即便我们喜欢的不一样，即便这些东西是about the other person。
interesting, RQ... 昨天你给的那个link我晚上准备看的时候， 结果我instapaper app 坏了。。。。 没看成。。。。。这个false positive， 我不太理解为什么就弊了。。 一般总是要再确症一下不是么。。
嘿，我正想说这事儿呢。你等着我来摘抄一下哈。
先上bayes' theorem (参照wiki):
P(A/B) = [P(B/A)*P(A)]/P(B)
下边是摘抄：
摘自"Risk Intelligence"
Chapter seven, Weighing the Probable
Subsection, Natural Born Bayesians?
Let's say I've just been for an HIV test and gotten a positive result. In order to make use of that information, I first have to know how many people like me have HIV. Of course, the phrase "like me" is ambiguous... For the sake of argument,... my reference class is... "English men"...
Let's say about 0.2 percent of English men are HIV-positive; that is the base rate. It is also the probability I should assign to the hypothesis that I am HIV-positive before I get the test result, if I consider just the fact that I am male and English... Byesians would call this the prior probability of the hypothesis.
... Let's assume that if someone has the virus, there is a 99 percent chance that this test will be positive; this is the hit rate. We'll also assume that if someone does not have the virus, there is still a 5 percent chance that the test will be positive; this is the false alarm rate (就是false positive喽).
If we plug all the information into Bayes's Theorem, we can calculate the posterior probability - the probability that I am HIV-positive after taking into account the new evidence provided by the test result. The answer turns out to be just under 4 percent. In other words, the chance that I actually have HIV is still very low, even after I test positive.
(下边是进一步解释)
Many of my students are suprised by this, even after I go through the details of how to calculate the answer with Bayes's theorem. Their suprise indicates the prevalence of the base-rate fallacy. Time and again, studies have shown that people fail to take sufficient account of prior probabilities or even completely ignore base rates altogether. The positive test result massively increased the probability that I have HIV, from 0.2 percent to almost 4 percents - an increase of almost 2,000 percent! But since we started off with an extremely low prior probability, the posterior probability was still rather low in absolute terms. If the base rate has been higher, then the situation would be very different. If, for example, I were an adult in Swaziland, where the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS was estimated at over 26 percent in 2008, a positive test result would increase the probability that I have HIV to over 87 percent. It should be clear by now why it is so important to know the base rate when interpreting the results of diagnostic tests - and why ignoring the base rate is a major violation of Bayesian law.
大意就是，假设test只有5%的时候会误诊，把没病诊断成有病。你测出来有问题了，也不能说明你就有95%可能是真有问题，而只有5%的可能侥幸测错了。基准概率(base rate)很小的话，在摘抄例子里是0.5%，即便看似很有把握的测试测出来你有问题，其实你有问题的可能性也是很小，在摘抄例子里是4%。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/11 11:33:08编辑过]
我上一次看也是5年前了，也是没拍完，但是我看到了第三季，也许没看完，然后又赶上writer罢工；主创和主要演员也是说后面比较dark；我觉得是比较压抑的感觉，第四季恐怕会更压抑吧，我觉得
汗， 不晓得能不能看下去。 我觉得1，2季度还是很积极向上的。。 这个片子为什么会归到科幻里面呢。。
汗， 不晓得能不能看下去。 我觉得1，2季度还是很积极向上的。。 这个片子为什么会归到科幻里面呢。。
昨天还在感慨，这部片子拍的真好。尤其第一季就能拍得那么好，真难得。
summer我大致理解， 但是不明白这个为什么导致年检一年一次不必要这个结论。 再怎么讨论概率还是在人群这个概念上， 到个人， 查出来positive， 总是个warning， 再确症一次，甚至多找几个医生问问， 就可以达到很高的准确率啊
我觉得可以从两方面看这个问题：
一个是NYT文章提到的，"they can screen for conditions where early detection does not alter the course of the disease, either because the body might heal itself or because there are no effective remedies. In either case they can lead to aggressive procedures to clarify the diagnosis or provide treatment, which themselves can be harmful. "
还有一个是多测几次能不能达到很高的准确率。用一下书中的例子：
P(真有病/诊断有病)=4%
P(没病/诊断有病)=96%
测五次都诊断有病的话，真有病的可能性 = 1 - 0.96^5 = 18%
这个例子里的false positive还不是很高的。当然这个例子里的base rate也蛮低的。
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/03/sunday-review/lets-not-get-physicals.html
FOR decades, scientific research has shown that annual physical exams — and many of the screening tests that routinely accompany them — are in many ways pointless or (worse) dangerous, because they can lead to unneeded procedures. The last few years have produced a steady stream of new evidence against the utility of popular tests:
Prostate specific antigen blood tests to detect prostate cancer? No longer recommended by the United States Preventive Services Task Force.
Routine EKGs? No use.
Yearly Pap smears? Nope. (Every three years.)
...
In 1979, a Canadian government task force officially recommended giving up the standard head-to-toe annual physical based on studies showing it to be “nonspecific,” “inefficient” and “potentially harmful,” replacing it instead with a small number of periodic screening tests, which depend in part on a patient’s risk factors for illness.
...
This year the American Board of Internal Medicine Foundation joined forces with Consumer Reports to compile a list of basic medical tests and procedures that are often performed but that don’t add value. The project — called Choosing Wisely — already has a list with dozens of entries, and more will be added in the fall.
...
The only routine blood test currently recommended by the United States Preventive Services Task Force is a cholesterol check every five years.
...
Intensive screening can prove useless for a number of reasons, experts say: Tests can have high rates of “false positives,” signaling that there may be disease, when further tests and procedures reveal none. Likewise, they can screen for conditions where early detection does not alter the course of the disease, either because the body might heal itself or because there are no effective remedies. In either case they can lead to aggressive procedures to clarify the diagnosis or provide treatment, which themselves can be harmful.
...
Many of the screening tests are developed, evaluated and then promoted by specialists and specialty societies — and some prove unhelpful when more widely studied. Specialists are often the last to give up a procedure.
Dr. Brett estimated that 80 percent of urologists still believed the prostate specific antigen tests to be beneficial or worthwhile, compared to only 20 percent of primary care doctors. That test is no longer recommended by the Preventive Services Task Force because prostate cancer is most often an extremely slow growing disease that does not kill, while prostate cancer surgery comes with frequent complications, like incontinence.
“The last patient you saw can influence you more than the study of a huge population,” said Dr. Cassel, an internist who was previously an official at several medical schools. “Urologists see the people who have serious advanced prostate cancer, which is a devastating disease. And they have a tool — surgery — that addresses it. So they want to do it.”
DOCTORS emphasize that in moving away from aggressive screening, they are not endorsing less care for the ill or proscribing preventive care that is helpful. “If you can afford it, there’s a tendency to say ‘why not?’ ” said Dr. Cassel. “Well, there are a lot of reasons: CT scans are very high radiation. Every test comes up with little incidental findings. So you have a cardiac stress test and that will lead to catheterization, which has risks, and it turns up just a normal variant. There’s a therapeutic cascade that follows each test.”
...
As of today, only a few screening tests are recommended as useful for healthy, asymptomatic people by the Preventive Services Task Force and some of those — like blood pressure checks — don’t require a doctor visit and could be performed in a pharmacy. “If you follow their recommendations you hardly do anything to patients,” said Dr. Brett, adding that the most important intervention doctors perform on healthy patients may be counseling about habits. For new patients, he still does the full head-to-toe medical exam — though he does not routinely order blood work — and regards some parts as more or less playacting.
...
以下是引用redsilence在7/10/2012 9:15:00 PM的发言：
帅哥组织了个心理学讲座（就是前两天我做海报的那个），主讲讲英语，帅哥让我翻译。我开始有些犹豫，百度了同声传译是多么的难之后，我打鸟退堂鼓，但由于不想让一个搞翻译的美女朋友来和帅哥搭上（哈哈）、自己也很想尝试这个没做过的事情，我拖着严重发炎的嗓子死撑到鸟最后
昨天全程2小时做交替翻译下来，我惊喜地发现！自己的中英文能力和短时记忆比我想象和记忆中的要好很多啊啊啊啊~~~哦也~~~
帅哥和他的老师反馈也不错，听众的反馈还没问。但是整个经历就是I did something new, I survived, and I feel bigger and more capable!
美中不足的是，即使组织者后面一起吃饭了，我还是觉得很帅哥没实现connection
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/10 21:15:10编辑过]
以下是引用enen^_^在7/10/2012 11:04:00 PM的发言：
我不觉得上面这些问题有任何的connection，至少对我没有，connection是人与人之间的，或者利益与利益之间的，上面的问题更倾向于在日后的利益中寻找或者建立；其次，自己听的开心是真的听得开心还是因为自己的问题给了很多人展现自己的机会，所以从对方满足的神情中，自己也获得了满足？
我觉得可以从两方面看这个问题：
一个是NYT文章提到的，"they can screen for conditions where early detection does not alter the course of the disease, either because the body might heal itself or because there are no effective remedies. In either case they can lead to aggressive procedures to clarify the diagnosis or provide treatment, which themselves can be harmful. "
还有一个是多测几次能不能达到很高的准确率。用一下书中的例子：
P(真有病/诊断有病)=4%
P(没病/诊断有病)=96%
测五次都诊断有病的话，真有病的可能性 = 1 - 0.96^5 = 18%
这个例子里的false positive还不是很高的。当然这个例子里的base rate也蛮低的。
我实实在在的说， 是非常的不同意。 我理解那个false positive 在统计学上的可能的误差比我们认为的大。但是具体到个人， 多次的重复误诊false positive我理解应该没有这么大的概率。 很多检测， 是就是是， 不是就是不是。 重复一次基本就可以排除false positive. 或者说， 大部分的常见的疾病的false positive 也许< 1%, 那么连续5次还误诊的话， 概率就是1-.99^5=0.95.
另外early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 这点我也觉得并不apply to 很多。 或者说， 也有很多疾病， early detection does alter the course of the disease，就是说我们可以有所作为根据早期诊断结果去改变最后的结局， 或者换句话说， 如果early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 那早期detection对这些疾病也没有坏处。。。 真正false positive ---> harmful treatment到底站多大的比例， 这个是个值得讨论的话题
以下是引用redsilence在7/11/2012 8:54:00 AM的发言：
我不觉得我问这些问题的时候是寻找或者建立日后的利益关系，但是你问了，我想了想，我问这些问题的结果可能还是一种利益关系：我从别人那里得到了我想得到的——看到人的变化和成长，开心也是因为这个，或者说，因为看到我所希望看到的、我认为人身上美的东西（改变、自由、坚持、自省等等），在那一刻我感觉到有至少单方面的connection“he/she is someone I like”——或者这叫做connection么？
刚才看你的两段话我想了想，之所以没有话回应，要么是对方的答案里我看不到美的东西，要么是我看到了美、但是我能反馈的只有想法“totally agree”“that's amazing/inspiring”、却没有更实质的东西可以给人家，因为我做的事太少了，我所看到的美我自己很少做过，can give nothing new所以就卡住了。
那么，形成connection的谈话起始点，都不应该是问题？因为所有的问题都是一种索取？而应该是说话、分享？精神上的给予？
以下是引用enen^_^在7/11/2012 10:37:00 AM的发言：
我上一次看也是5年前了，也是没拍完，但是我看到了第三季，也许没看完，然后又赶上writer罢工；主创和主要演员也是说后面比较dark；我觉得是比较压抑的感觉，第四季恐怕会更压抑吧，我觉得
你们这是在说哪个剧啊？
battlestar gallactica
高危人群应该定期检查吧。
对身体有害的test少做。
test出有问题，要复查再复查。
复查还是有问题，要考虑是否需要治疗。
这个可以参照一下：
http://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/index.html
主页右下角有一个"Find screening, counseling, and preventive medication services specific to a patient's risk factors. " 输入年龄、性别，submit后会有一个表格，建议需要和不需要的检查。
以下是引用summerhole在7/11/2012 11:06:00 AM的发言：
嘿，我正想说这事儿呢。你等着我来摘抄一下哈。
先上bayes' theorem (参照wiki):
P(A/B) = [P(B/A)*P(A)]/P(B)
下边是摘抄：
摘自"Risk Intelligence"
Chapter seven, Weighing the Probable
Subsection, Natural Born Bayesians?
Let's say I've just been for an HIV test and gotten a positive result. In order to make use of that information, I first have to know how many people like me have HIV. Of course, the phrase "like me" is ambiguous... For the sake of argument,... my reference class is... "English men"...
Let's say about 0.2 percent of English men are HIV-positive; that is the base rate. It is also the probability I should assign to the hypothesis that I am HIV-positive before I get the test result, if I consider just the fact that I am male and English... Byesians would call this the prior probability of the hypothesis.
... Let's assume that if someone has the virus, there is a 99 percent chance that this test will be positive; this is the hit rate. We'll also assume that if someone does not have the virus, there is still a 5 percent chance that the test will be positive; this is the false alarm rate (就是false positive喽).
If we plug all the information into Bayes's Theorem, we can calculate the posterior probability - the probability that I am HIV-positive after taking into account the new evidence provided by the test result. The answer turns out to be just under 4 percent. In other words, the chance that I actually have HIV is still very low, even after I test positive.
(下边是进一步解释)
Many of my students are suprised by this, even after I go through the details of how to calculate the answer with Bayes's theorem. Their suprise indicates the prevalence of the base-rate fallacy. Time and again, studies have shown that people fail to take sufficient account of prior probabilities or even completely ignore base rates altogether. The positive test result massively increased the probability that I have HIV, from 0.2 percent to almost 4 percents - an increase of almost 2,000 percent! But since we started off with an extremely low prior probability, the posterior probability was still rather low in absolute terms. If the base rate has been higher, then the situation would be very different. If, for example, I were an adult in Swaziland, where the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS was estimated at over 26 percent in 2008, a positive test result would increase the probability that I have HIV to over 87 percent. It should be clear by now why it is so important to know the base rate when interpreting the results of diagnostic tests - and why ignoring the base rate is a major violation of Bayesian law.
大意就是，假设test只有5%的时候会误诊，把没病诊断成有病。你测出来有问题了，也不能说明你就有95%可能是真有问题，而只有5%的可能侥幸测错了。基准概率(base rate)很小的话，在摘抄例子里是0.5%，即便看似很有把握的测试测出来你有问题，其实你有问题的可能性也是很小，在摘抄例子里是4%。
[此贴子已经被作者于2012/7/11 11:33:08编辑过]
别的不说， 就牙齿来讲， 洗牙定期检查真是太重要了。。。
我觉得还应该拿出来比较的是false positive导致harmful treatment和早期诊断出来导致及时治疗，这两个的数据是多少区别。
以下是引用meiyoule在7/11/2012 12:10:00 PM的发言：
我实实在在的说， 是非常的不同意。 我理解那个false positive 在统计学上的可能的误差比我们认为的大。但是具体到个人， 多次的重复误诊false positive我理解应该没有这么大的概率。 很多检测， 是就是是， 不是就是不是。 重复一次基本就可以排除false positive. 或者说， 大部分的常见的疾病的false positive 也许< 1%, 那么连续5次还误诊的话， 概率就是1-.99^5=0.95.
另外early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 这点我也觉得并不apply to 很多。 或者说， 也有很多疾病， early detection does alter the course of the disease，就是说我们可以有所作为根据早期诊断结果去改变最后的结局， 或者换句话说， 如果early detection does not alter the course of the disease， 那早期detection对这些疾病也没有坏处。。。 真正false positive ---> harmful treatment到底站多大的比例， 这个是个值得讨论的话题
以下是引用meiyoule在7/11/2012 12:12:00 PM的发言：
battlestar gallactica
以下是引用summerhole在7/11/2012 12:12:00 PM的发言：
我想，结论是每个人不一样，每个test不一样。每个人身体也都一直在浮动，不是恒定的。今天检查有点儿问题，说不定下个月再查就没问题了，说不定身体自己就调节好了。
高危人群应该定期检查吧。
对身体有害的test少做。
test出有问题，要复查再复查。
复查还是有问题，要考虑是否需要治疗。
这个可以参照一下：
http://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/index.html
主页右下角有一个"Find screening, counseling, and preventive medication services specific to a patient's risk factors. " 输入年龄、性别，submit后会有一个表格，建议需要和不需要的检查。
就pap 这个事情本身来说， 我以前的OB就有个case, 一个病人第一年好好的， 她拖了一年半-2年， 做的第二次的， 就是晚期了。 当然了，这个可能就是fall into early detection does not alter the course of the disease 也未可知。 但是我非常不赞同这篇文章的论调就是， 我认为美国preventive care是很不好的， 这些文章更让很多人认为preventive care是没有用的。 我觉得是很不好的一个趋势。
别的不说， 就牙齿来讲， 洗牙定期检查真是太重要了。。。
我也是一年洗两次。我的牙医还每年照一次x-ray。我有点嘀咕有没有必要。
http://www.webmd.com/oral-health/guide/dental-x-rays-when-get-them
这里说没有decay的话，2、3年一次x-ray就够了。
以下是引用meiyoule在7/11/2012 12:16:00 PM的发言：
就pap 这个事情本身来说， 我以前的OB就有个case, 一个病人第一年好好的， 她拖了一年半-2年， 做的第二次的， 就是晚期了。 当然了，这个可能就是fall into early detection does not alter the course of the disease 也未可知。 但是我非常不赞同这篇文章的论调就是， 我认为美国preventive care是很不好的， 这些文章更让很多人认为preventive care是没有用的。 我觉得是很不好的一个趋势。
别的不说， 就牙齿来讲， 洗牙定期检查真是太重要了。。。
还有就是写文章的人的背景很重要。 professionals也很难避免带入个人的成见和利益关系。。。 我觉得美国的医生， 很多都不在乎preventive care， 比较在乎的就是treat, 而不是prevent....
所以很容易先误诊，然后用虎狼之药。
汗，第一次听说，是说什么的
是说机器人要消灭人类，人类逃到太空寻找绿洲，沿途被机器人追杀的故事。
故事本身很有意思、很有深度，触及到了很多哲学、道德、生存问题。
以下是引用summerhole在7/11/2012 12:23:00 PM的发言：
所以很容易先误诊，然后用虎狼之药。
以下是引用summerhole在7/11/2012 12:25:00 PM的发言：
是说机器人要消灭人类，人类逃到太空寻找绿洲，沿途被机器人追杀的故事。
故事本身很有意思、很有深度，触及到了很多哲学、道德、生存问题。
哈哈，terminator啊
比那个有趣多啦。也比那个压抑。