大选平局怎么办?这些人可改变普选结果 决定谁当…

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美国大选出现平局怎么办?这些人可以改变普选结果,由他们决定谁当正副总统

据CNN报道 在美国大选中,两位总统候选人要争夺538张选举人票,因此出现平局的可能性很大。事实上,令人惊讶的是,到目前为止,只有1800年托马斯·杰斐逊和亚伦·伯尔之间出现过一次平局的选举结果。



CNN报道截图

这一平局是由于民主党和共和党协调失败造成的,但却导致了美国首次由众议院决定的“临时选举”(contingent election,也可译作权变选举)。

今年真的会出现平局吗?

是的。虽然打成平手的可能性不大,但人们应该做好准备。

如果贺锦丽赢得威斯康星州、密歇根州、亚利桑那州和内华达州,以及内布拉斯加州的一张选举人票——这些都是拜登在2020年赢得的——但她失去了宾夕法尼亚州和乔治亚州,就会出现269比269的平局。

与其他州不同,缅因州和内布拉斯加州为全州获胜者提供两名选举人票,向每个国会选区的获胜者提供一张选举人票。缅因州和内布拉斯加州竞争激烈的选举人票在可能出现平局的情况下会产生巨大影响。

如果出现平局怎么办?

如果出现269对269的平局,或者如果第三党或独立候选人赢得选举人票,使候选人无法达到选举人团270票的门槛,则需要进行“临时选举”。

根据在1800年那次平局选举之后颁布的第12修正案,如果没有候选人获得选举人团的多数选票,将由1月3日刚刚宣誓就职的新国会选出总统。参议院将选出副总统。

什么时候会进行“临时选举”?

根据国会研究服务处(Congressional Research Service)的分析,临时选举将于1月6日举行,届时国会议员将开会清点选举人票,并确定没有候选人获得多数票。

“临时选举”是如何运作的?

这个过程会非常分裂,议员们可能会在支持自己喜欢的候选人和支持本州选民喜欢的候选人之间左右为难。

在临时选举中,众议院选出总统,参议院选出副总统。众议院议员只能从选举人团票数前三名候选人中选择总统,参议员可以从票数前两名候选人中选择副总统。

众议院的每个州代表将获得一票,而不是以个人身份投票,不过各州代表团如何选择他们喜欢的候选人并没有详细说明。候选人只要获得简单多数票(即26个州代表团的选票),即可成为新总统。

如果众议院的各州代表团在1月20日就职日之前没有选出总统,参议院选出的新副总统将成为临时总统。当众议院陷入僵局时,参议院有可能选择一名副总统,因为在参议院,每位参议员都有一票。

如果参议院在1月20日之前没有选出副总统,第20修正案中的总统继任计划将暂时生效。副总统之后的第一顺位是众议院议长,目前是迈克·约翰逊,不过如果民主党在今年11月赢得众议院多数席位,可能会由另一位共和党人或民主党人担任议长。

双方都有优势吗?

如果说选举人团制度已经让小州和更多的农业州受益,那么临时选举程序——无论人口多少,每个州都有平等的投票权——将给它们带来巨大的优势。

加州和德克萨斯州与特拉华州和怀俄明州在临时选举中享有同样的发言权。此外,在选举人团中获得3张选票的华盛顿特区将被排除在临时选举之外。

没有任何规定要求各州代表团尊重本州选举的获胜者。在势均力敌的州,单个席位的结果(可能由不公平的国会选区划分图决定)可能会影响代表团的投票。

进入2024年大选之前,共和党议员在26个州占多数,而民主党议员在22个州占多数,两党在明尼苏达州和北卡罗来纳州打成平手。然而,北卡罗来纳州的共和党人已经改变了该州的国会版图,明年1月可能会有一个共和党占多数的国会代表团。共和党人明年很可能保持他们的优势,特别是如果选民的分歧如此之大,以至于在最高票数上出现全国平局的话。

例如,在亚利桑那州,即使贺锦丽在那里险胜,谁能保证大多数共和党国会议员会投票给民主党候选人?

为什么会有这个奇怪的决胜制度?

这其实是一种进步。选举人团最初是这样组成的,选举人投票给两名候选人。得票最多的人当选总统,得票第二多的人当选副总统。

当政党形成时——1800年的联邦党和民主共和党——选举人需要协调一致,为他们选择的总统候选人投出比副总统候选人更多的票。

在1800年的选举中——即1796年选举的再现——杰斐逊的民主共和党击败了时任总统和联邦党人约翰·亚当斯。

但民主共和党由于协调不力或计票不佳,愚蠢地将相同数量的选票投给了他们的总统候选人杰斐逊和他的竞选伙伴伯尔。

出于愤怒,当早期版本的临时选举制度开始时,当时仍然控制众议院的联邦党人支持伯尔。尽管著名的联邦党人亚历山大·汉密尔顿介入,但经过36轮投票,杰斐逊最终当选。

到1804年,第12修正案被批准。

自1800年以来有没有进行过“临时选举”?

是的。1824年,多名候选人在选举人团中获得选票,但没有一人过半数,导致了临时选举。

令人惊讶的是,从今天的角度来看,当年获得选举人团选票的所有候选人虽然分成了不同的地区派别,但都来自同一个民主共和党。

安德鲁·杰克逊赢得了40%的普选,并在选举人团中获得了最多的选票,获得了获胜所需的131张选票中的99张。但众议院最终选择了他的头号对手约翰·昆西·亚当斯,他的父亲在1800年的选举中失败了。

4年后,杰克逊以一场胜利复仇,而约翰·昆西·亚当斯成为唯一一位当选国会议员的前总统——这是让他成为总统的机构。

另一次临时选举发生在1836年的竞选中,但只是针对副总统。弗吉尼亚州的选举人不喜欢选举获胜者马丁·范布伦的竞选伙伴罗伯特·m·约翰逊,因此在选举人团中拒绝给他投票。参议院后来在一次临时选举中将约翰逊提升为副总统。

1876年出现有争议的选举

1876年,当出现有争议的选举结果时,临时选举制度被绕过了。

那一年正值重建时期,问题不是没有人在选举人团中获得多数,而是3个南方州——佛罗里达州、路易斯安那州和南卡罗来纳州——在州选举有争议后,向华盛顿特区投了多张选举人票。而在俄勒冈州,一张选举人票也引发争议。

国会成立了一个特别的两党委员会,其中共和党人比民主党人多一人,以确定哪位候选人应该获得有争议的20张选举人票。他们最终把选票投给了共和党人拉瑟福·b·海耶斯,尽管民主党人塞缪尔·蒂尔登获得了更多的普选票。

随后,海耶斯基本上结束了重建,也许这是他入主白宫的秘密协议的一部分。

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van1
1 楼
平局不可怕,可怕的是有人不认可选举公平,要暴力夺权!参加比赛前必须声明承认比赛公平公正,不承认的请不要参加比赛!
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2 楼
rumble. com/v5kpqth-live-with-julie.html?start=400 YOUR ENEMIES CONVERSATIONS ARE ABOUT TO BE EXPOSED [Word heard – October 26, 2024] For I the Lord this day am telling you My children, foreign enemies have invaded your land, invaded your govt, invaded your economy, invaded your news industry, invaded all the entertainment industry and your trading industry with other nations. A foreign contract that was made against your elections, against your country, devised and designed by the Establishment is about to be exposed in front of you. Your elections have been invaded by foreign invaders. They are trying everything to steal this from you again. They’ve designed new things they have never done before. They’re not sure even this will work but they will try it anyway. They will try to rig every state and the popular vote and the electoral vote. They see how this opportunity, but they also see it as it could fail. They have never seen numbers in polls as bad as the ones they are seeing now. They have never been at such a disadvantage in any election they have been a part of. My children your enemies are at war against your elections. They have and will continue to try to manipulate the law in order for them to have their foreign invaders eligible to vote. They will try to duplicate ballots, having their machines switching votes. They’re trying deceptive tactics at your polling places, new and old ways to get the numbers back where they can succeed at stealing this election and nation forever…BUT I AM IN THEIR WAY. YOU MY CHILDREN ARE IN THEIR WAY. Do not be discouraged at your enemy’s plans but instead call them down. Declare their defeat and do not fear another 2020. No matter what they do, they will not be successful. It will not stand because I am restoring your land. Traps are everywhere. When your enemies are completely unaware they are being watched. Your enemies believe that they can’t get Kamala in for the win, they will decimate your votes in the House and the Senate.
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3 楼
PART 2 I’ve repeatedly told you to pray over those seats and these elections because they’re under attack. So you attack back with My Words. Do not back off and grow weary now because it’s almost time to see your enemies retreat out of those seats. Continue to pray for My David and he is still receiving bad advice from political strategists and others that are giving him advice spiritually that is not from Me. My David is under attack and the pressure is building with the wolves in his midst for him to make decisions and mistakes to take him out at the last minute. They have plans with the Establishment to have him more vulnerable when he is out campaigning and continuing even after the election, to leave another door open for an attempt on his life. My children pray for My David and for his protection and for him to be led by Me and not his enemies from within. Attempts will be made but I am his Protector and as you are praying My children and using My authority, you will see My hand move to protect My David and to protect this nation. These coming weeks before the end of this year will be more unprecedented than its already been. The more attacks against you and My David the more your enemies will collapse and your enemies will fail, the more they will be exposed and the weaker they will become. The battle will intensify but My children remember who I am and I am with you and I’ve already defeated your enemies says the Lord of Hosts. My church get up now. My church arise and stand for this nation like never before. Continue to pray for your loved ones like never before, to awaken and to vote biblically and not how they always have in the past. Pray for those who have never cast a ballot to do so this time. Your country’s under attack with disinformation intimidation tactics. Your enemies are weakening by the day and their protection has all but disappeared.
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4 楼
PART 3 Now is the time to invade the enemies and pursue and overtake and recover all they have stolen from you, including every election, all your finances through taxation that was never designed to be this way. My children that tax system they designed was to bury you in debt, to inflate your govt and to make them more powerful and more invincible to any type of loss. They have enslaved you with the tax system and it’s now time to come alive, to wake up and to take back this nation from the hands that have controlled it. You My children have more power against this rogue govt than you have realized. Open your eyes and see they don’t have a covenant with Me. They’re against Me and anyone against Me is defeated. Change the way you see your enemy’s power and control and see them as nothing because they’re nothing in My sight says the Lord. Your enemies conversations are about to be exposed. There has been unprecedented amount of wire-tapping of your enemies when they had no idea they were being recorded. My infiltrators have information and confessions from more of your govt officials while they’re completely unaware. These recordings are out there and anywhere there’s election interference and election fraud, it has been recorded and there’s enough proof to destroy their results that they try to put out this time. I told you My children. I have broken through every firewall and all their defense systems, every blueprint and architect behind every election that has been stolen and every person behind these fake indictments. A major bombshell is about to be leaked and proof against the indictment and these orders came directly from the White House – with the judges and lawyers and the design of the indictments, the manipulation of the law – it will come out. I will show you Nancy, Obama, Hillary, the Biden and Kamala along with many others that have made these things up to imprison My David and to prevent him from taking office.
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5 楼
PART 4 I will also show you the order of the Butler assassination attempt – how the White House, the DOJ, the FBI, the CIA and the Secret Service were all in cahoots to take out My David that day. Heads are about to spin you would say, when the wall of deception is completely decimated and the truth that the power outs from the Establishment dealings and corruption to kill My David and to kill anything against their agenda. Your enemies are on a slippery slope they’re about to fall off of says the Lord. Judges in the land of My eagle that have been paid to cover up crime, election interference and fraud, to criminalize and destroy the lives of the innocent. You are all about to be judged. Many judges will be removed and disbarred for what they have been a part of, committing crimes alongside of these criminals. Judges who are against Me, I’m against you. And I’m the Judge over all the earth. I’ll remove everyone of you that are against Me and this nation says the Lord. A judge will be exposed for what they took part in and that’s the first of many that will fall. Leticia James you will fall and so will Judge Engoron. Your case is about to fall apart and everything you have done against My David will be done unto you. You both will lose everything. What you have sown you will reap because these are the days of Haman says the Lord. The case with Alvin Bragg and Judge Merchan – you two along with your case are not safe either from exposure. There is more than enough proof to remove you both. You took steps you were paid for to take against My David and you’ll regret ever taking up this case. You wanted destruction and to incarcerate My David and it will be done unto you and everyone who helped you pull off such a fraudulent case. My children these are the days many will be exposed and many will be removed. These enemies you will see like Pharaoh and his army defeated before your face. I am your Defender and Protector of this nation. My children your enemies will pay a high price for the destruction they have caused against you. Pray My children. Stand. And I will heal your land says the Lord Your Redeemer.
弯刀月
6 楼
投票鸡也不敢太过分。那就锤子剪刀布
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kingdale1
7 楼
这是美国式宫斗,呵呵。
每天都来看看
8 楼
平个屁 别自作多情了
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Bhistory
9 楼
Remember, 川普肯定赢 但目标远不是这一次选举,目标是永远葬送DS的盗选机器,所以要许可一定的作弊 特点是这次所有作弊都被监控,美国仅有的1/3不信大选作弊的人,将亲眼目睹 此后清理选举系统的呼声,使得新的无法作弊的区块链选举方式,迅速通过 目标:永远葬送DS 注意,在历史上以色列人过红海前,是局面似乎绝望,人心中最恐惧的时刻,但是主说,定睛看那些埃及大军,因为不久,他们将永远被埋葬 大卫面对巨人歌利亚时,是以色列人心都快崩出来的时候,那个孩子看起来随时可能就被杀了,但当石子飞过,不可一世的巨人就死了 推动那个石子的,不是大卫的力气,是神掌控的手
每天都来看看
10 楼
哈雷路亚 我其实不是基督徒 但是我看不惯那个婊子副总统侮辱基督徒 她居然侮辱上帝 这样的人当美国总统 就是美国的灭顶之灾 所以选创普 没有任何迟疑
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not4any
11 楼
楼下这位说话怎么那么臭,真有那么深仇大恨吗?
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xyz18
12 楼
只要民主党不作弊,Trump将会吊打三笑!美国人不可能选一个弱女人做总统的,更何况这还是个连党内初选都没过的女人,走后门上来的,既没能力也没品德,相信大部分美国人还是比较正常的
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chenmo520
13 楼
如果真的选举作弊了,川普有足足四年的时间来证实,没有比这更好的助选方式了。相信绝大多数人都会选川普这个挖出民主政治大毒瘤的功臣,反之,我只能认为他走的是谣言一万遍成真理的道路。
茵芯
14 楼
美式选举从来都不是一人一票,最终权力集中在选举人,然后是国会议员的手里 民众的选票有何意义? 这是何等民主?
苍天饶过谁
15 楼
作为一个华裔美国人,我最初也曾经支持过民主党,但是经历了奥巴马,拜登所实施的极左政策之后,我彻底认清了他们的丑恶面目,他们为了一个党派的利益,不惜出卖美国的国家利益和安全,不惜出卖美国人民的利益和安全,不惜以国家权力作为武器来压制打击异己,不惜以谎言和选举作弊来稳固政权,我们再看看现在的边境,看看现在的社会治安,看看现在的学校,物价,民主,人权,伦理道德,可以说,美国的各个方面都在迅速衰败堕落!那个曾经以民主,自由,平等,法制,繁荣,稳定的而著称的超级强国几乎将要国将不国了!我看不下去了,我也忍不下去了,我们必须发声,为了所有华裔移民和我们的子孙后代,我们不能就这样看着美国亡国!我们不能看着民主党把美国变为墨西哥或者南非!我们必须行动起来,做出正确的选择! 川普不是完人,他和我们大家一样,都有缺点,但是他的大嘴和花边新闻,真的有那么重要吗?我们要的是一个能够代表美国人民,保护美国国家利益和安全,为维护真正的民主和法制而百折不挠,英勇奋战的领袖!如果你真的用心去听过他的演讲,你就能感受到他是真的爱这个国家和它的人民!你就能感受到他是真心的想让美国更伟大,让老百姓的生活更美好!他的理念,他的信仰,他的理想,他的精神,感动着每一个听众,作为一个亿万富翁,他放弃自己舒适的生活,冒着生命的危险和坐牢的风险,不惜一切代价来为美国更美好的明天而奋战,这样一个人,不正是我们所需要的那个总统和领袖吗?这样一个人,为什么我们不能给他一个机会呢?这样一个人,怎么可能是罪犯,纳粹,希特勒!!!民主党越污名化,越痛恨的人,就是我们老百姓越需要的领袖! 请投下你庄严的一票吧!不仅为了你自己,还有你的子孙后代和更美好的明天!