Reverse quarantine may be a better option to fight the coronavirus
Quarantine is the traditional method to fight the coronavirus, and it can be cost effective at the initial stage. However, for an already spread coronavirus, a reverse quarantine may be a better option, and it can save the world trillions of dollars.
A normal quarantine is to put the infected in isolation. A reverse quarantine is the opposite. A reserve quarantine lets the infected to stay with the population to infect more people until herd immunity is achieved. A reverse quarantine puts the elderly and a small number of people with preexisting conditions in voluntary isolation to protect them from infection.
From an antibody test in an Italian community, herd immunity is achieved with 70% of the population infected in two months, at a cost of 1.73% death rate for the whole population. We know that most of the deaths are for the elderly and patients with preexisting conditions. A German study shows 99.9% of the deaths have preexisting conditions. The majority of people infected only have mild symptoms, especially for people younger than 20 years. A reverse quarantine puts the elderly and people with preexisting conditions in voluntary isolation to protect them. As a result, the general population can achieve herd immunity with a much lower death rate and a much lower burden on hospitals. The death rate can be as low as 0.017%, the same order of magnitude as flu and traffic deaths. There will be deaths, but no more than the number from the current flatten-the-curve strategy. The reverse quarantine has minimal adverse impacts on businesses, in contrast with the potential loss of trillions of dollars in wages and business revenues for a normal quarantine.
During the reverse quarantine, people are encouraged to have healthy meals,moderate exercises,warm clothing,and good sleep. The air conditioning temperature is recommended to set at 78 degrees Fahrenheit. A warmer environmental temperature will help milden the symptoms of an infection. Grocery stores can set the first hour of business for the elderly and vulnerable people, and everyone is required to wear face mask during this protection period in the store.
At this stage of the coronavirus, the reverse quarantine is a viable option for the government to consider. It can save lives and save trillions of dollars to workers and businesses.
在新冠病毒初始，隔离是最有效的方法。
在新冠病毒已经扩散的情况下，反向隔离可能就是一个有效的选择。反向隔离的意思与正常隔离相反，并不是隔离病毒感染者，而是有意让他们在人群中扩散病毒，从而在两个月内形成群体免疫。其间隔离老年人和其他易受新冠病毒危害的人，减少对医院的负担和死亡率。
这个方法比目前的压扁曲线法死人要少，更是减少经济损失达万亿美元规模。平摊下来每家损损失一万美元。
这个就是我以前说的搞活是一个意思。
这是一个方向性的问题，是个道的问题。很多人在纠结口罩等术的问题，那是枝节问题。
我写了个英文版如下，希望更多人想一想，能够帮助决策者。
Reverse quarantine may be a better option to fight the coronavirus
Quarantine is the traditional method to fight the coronavirus, and it can be cost effective at the initial stage. However, for an already spread coronavirus, a reverse quarantine may be a better option, and it can save the world trillions of dollars.
A normal quarantine is to put the infected in isolation. A reverse quarantine is the opposite. A reserve quarantine lets the infected to stay with the population to infect more people until herd immunity is achieved. A reverse quarantine puts the elderly and a small number of people with preexisting conditions in voluntary isolation to protect them from infection.
From an antibody test in an Italian community, herd immunity is achieved with 70% of the population infected in two months, at a cost of 1.73% death rate for the whole population. We know that most of the deaths are for the elderly and patients with preexisting conditions. A German study shows 99.9% of the deaths have preexisting conditions. The majority of people infected only have mild symptoms, especially for people younger than 20 years. A reverse quarantine puts the elderly and people with preexisting conditions in voluntary isolation to protect them. As a result, the general population can achieve herd immunity with a much lower death rate and a much lower burden on hospitals. The death rate can be as low as 0.017%, the same order of magnitude as flu and traffic deaths. There will be deaths, but no more than the number from the current flatten-the-curve strategy. The reverse quarantine has minimal adverse impacts on businesses, in contrast with the potential loss of trillions of dollars in wages and business revenues for a normal quarantine.
During the reverse quarantine, people are encouraged to have healthy meals,moderate exercises,warm clothing,and good sleep. The air conditioning temperature is recommended to set at 78 degrees Fahrenheit. A warmer environmental temperature will help milden the symptoms of an infection. Grocery stores can set the first hour of business for the elderly and vulnerable people, and everyone is required to wear face mask during this protection period in the store.
At this stage of the coronavirus, the reverse quarantine is a viable option for the government to consider. It can save lives and save trillions of dollars to workers and businesses.
多少人隔着窗户打电话，祝生日。
我的建议是在疫情非常轻的地方实行严格的隔离，把为数不多的病人和直接接触者彻底隔离，并且实行反向的封城，不让疫情地区的人员和交通工具进入，在这些“净土”加倍生产。
而疫情已经蔓延的那些地方就放任了，愿意戴口罩就戴。
我提出建议的时候还可能，现在已经找不到净土了。
放任(+)居家自行隔离， 他们又不自觉， 该吃吃该喝喝满地乱跑，传染家人传染社区， 一下子就传开了， 现在每天感染数字蹭蹭往上涨，让人心惊肉跳。。。。
有报道意大利和西班牙要有所动作了。