[1] V.D. Menachery, B.L. Yount, Jr., K. Debbink, S. Agnihothram, L.E. Gralinski, J.A. Plante, R.L. Graham, T. Scobey, X.Y. Ge, E.F. Donaldson, S.H. Randell, A. Lanzavecchia, W.A. Marasco, Z.L. Shi and R.S. Baric, A sars-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence, Nature medicine 21 (2015), no. 12, 1508-1513.
[2] X.Y. Ge, J.L. Li, X.L. Yang, A.A. Chmura, G. Zhu, J.H. Epstein, J.K. Mazet, B. Hu, W. Zhang, C. Peng, Y.J. Zhang, C.M. Luo, B. Tan, N. Wang, Y. Zhu, G. Crameri, S.Y. Zhang, L.F. Wang, P. Daszak and Z.L. Shi, Isolation and characterization of a bat sars-like coronavirus that uses the ace2 receptor, Nature 503 (2013), no. 7477, 535-538.
[3] B. He, Y. Zhang, L. Xu, W. Yang, F. Yang, Y. Feng, L. Xia, J. Zhou, W. Zhen, Y. Feng, H. Guo, H. Zhang and C. Tu, Identification of diverse alphacoronaviruses and genomic characterization of a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronavirus from bats in china, Journal of virology 88 (2014), no. 12, 7070-7082.
[4] D. Paraskevis, E.G. Kostaki, G. Magiorkinis, G. Panayiotakopoulos, G. Sourvinos and S. Tsiodras, Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-ncov) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event, Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases (2020), 104212.
[5] R. Lu, X. Zhao, J. Li, P. Niu, B. Yang, H. Wu, W. Wang, H. Song, B. Huang, N. Zhu, Y. Bi, X. Ma, F. Zhan, L. Wang, T. Hu, H. Zhou, Z. Hu, W. Zhou, L. Zhao, J. Chen, Y. Meng, J. Wang, Y. Lin, J. Yuan, Z. Xie, J. Ma, W.J. Liu, D. Wang, W. Xu, E.C. Holmes, G.F. Gao, G. Wu, W. Chen, W. Shi and W. Tan, Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: Implications for virus origins and receptor binding, Lancet (2020).
Cross-species transmission of viruses from wildlife animal reservoirs poses a marked threat to human and animal health1. Bats have been recognized as one of the most important reservoirs for emerging viruses and the transmission of a coronavirus that originated in bats to humans via intermediate hosts was responsible for the high-impact emerging zoonosis, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. Here we provide virological, epidemiological, evolutionary and experimental evidence that a novel HKU2-related bat coronavirus, swine acute diarrhoea syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV), is the aetiological agent that was responsible for a large-scale outbreak of fatal disease in pigs in China that has caused the death of 24,693 piglets across four farms. Notably, the outbreak began in Guangdong province in the vicinity of the origin of the SARS pandemic. Furthermore, we identified SADS-related CoVs with 96–98% sequence identity in 9.8% (58 out of 591) of anal swabs collected from bats in Guangdong province during 2013–2016, predominantly in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.) that are known reservoirs of SARS-related CoVs. We found that there were striking similarities between the SADS and SARS outbreaks in geographical, temporal, ecological and aetiological settings. This study highlights the importance of identifying coronavirus diversity and distribution in bats to mitigate future outbreaks that could threaten livestock, public health and economic growth.
我觉得科学杂志的文章还是有些道理的。 ncov 2019 溯源问题综述： Ebright tells ScienceInsider that the 2019-nCoV data are “consistent with entry into the human population as either a natural accident or a laboratory accident.” “Shi did not reply to emails from Science” 石和武汉病毒所应该回应这篇文章。
评论：CoV-2019 是实验室泄露出来的说法没有根据
撰文 | 项焰（美国德克萨斯州立大学圣安东尼奥医学中心教授）
石正丽带领的团队最近在《自然》上发表了一篇文章，描述了他们在武汉肺炎病人上发现一种新的冠状病毒（nCoV-2019）的过程和分析。他们从五个病人的体内得到了病毒的全测序，并拿他们和已知的病毒序列进行了比较，发现是一种新的病毒。
这个新病毒和一种蝙蝠冠状病毒 RaTG13 在一个短的区域有高序列同源性。RaTG13 是石正丽他们几年前在云南省的蝙蝠中检测到的，但他们在此之前并没有 RaTG13 的活病毒和全序列。于是他们从保存的 RNA 样品里测了 RaTG13 的全序列，发现 RaTG13 和 nCoV-2019 的全基因组序列有 96.2%的同源性，共有近 1100 个碱基的差异。
结合其他冠状病毒的假定突变率估计，RaTG13 和 nCoV-2019 这两种病毒可能在 25 到 65 年前有一个共同的祖先。这表明这两种病毒是近亲。相比之下， SARS 病毒和 2019-nCoV 有约80%的全基因组序列同源性，是更远的亲戚。CoV-2019 是一个从来没见过的新病毒，在实验室目前也没有和 CoV-2019 最接近的蝙蝠冠状病毒 RaTG13 的活病毒，说 CoV-2019 是实验室泄露出来的是没有根据的。
石正丽团队为什么要研究动物上的病毒呢？因为要有效防止像 SARS一样的新发传染病，就应该研究 SARS 病毒到底从哪来，还有没有别的病毒会从动物上侵染人类。
自 2004 年开始，石正丽团队到中国各个省市采集了数千只中华菊头蝠标本，并对其体内病毒进行基因组分析。2013 年，他们在云南省一个洞穴中发现了一群携带有 SARS 样冠状病毒的中华菊头蝠，通过测序及序列比对，他们发现该病毒与 2003 年爆发的 SARS 病毒具有高度同源性。这个结果说明 SARS 病毒极可能起源于蝙蝠。此成果获得了中国国家自然科学奖二等奖。
2015 年美国北卡的 Ralph Baric 团队根据石正丽发现的蝙蝠冠状病毒序列，构建了一个活的蝙蝠冠状重组病毒（这就是网上传的 2015 年Nature Medicine 文章），发现它可以感染人细胞，并以此预测蝙蝠冠状病毒可能会进化到侵袭人类，需要密切监控。和 RaTG13 比，这个蝙蝠冠状重组病毒和 nCoV-2019 相差更远，更不可能是造成武汉肺炎的病毒。
2018 年，石正丽联合另外两个团队发现，导致2016 年广州仔猪致死性疾病的冠状病毒，与发生疫情猪场附近的蝙蝠洞穴中发现的冠状病毒全基因组序列一致性高达 98.48%，从而认定广州仔猪致死性疾病是来自于蝙蝠的冠状病毒造成的。这些研究找到了新发病毒的源头，对于防范未来的新发传染病很有帮助。
参考资料
[1] V.D. Menachery, B.L. Yount, Jr., K. Debbink, S. Agnihothram, L.E. Gralinski, J.A. Plante, R.L. Graham, T. Scobey, X.Y. Ge, E.F. Donaldson, S.H. Randell, A. Lanzavecchia, W.A. Marasco, Z.L. Shi and R.S. Baric, A sars-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence, Nature medicine 21 (2015), no. 12, 1508-1513.
[2] X.Y. Ge, J.L. Li, X.L. Yang, A.A. Chmura, G. Zhu, J.H. Epstein, J.K. Mazet, B. Hu, W. Zhang, C. Peng, Y.J. Zhang, C.M. Luo, B. Tan, N. Wang, Y. Zhu, G. Crameri, S.Y. Zhang, L.F. Wang, P. Daszak and Z.L. Shi, Isolation and characterization of a bat sars-like coronavirus that uses the ace2 receptor, Nature 503 (2013), no. 7477, 535-538.
[3] B. He, Y. Zhang, L. Xu, W. Yang, F. Yang, Y. Feng, L. Xia, J. Zhou, W. Zhen, Y. Feng, H. Guo, H. Zhang and C. Tu, Identification of diverse alphacoronaviruses and genomic characterization of a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronavirus from bats in china, Journal of virology 88 (2014), no. 12, 7070-7082.
[4] D. Paraskevis, E.G. Kostaki, G. Magiorkinis, G. Panayiotakopoulos, G. Sourvinos and S. Tsiodras, Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-ncov) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event, Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases (2020), 104212.
[5] R. Lu, X. Zhao, J. Li, P. Niu, B. Yang, H. Wu, W. Wang, H. Song, B. Huang, N. Zhu, Y. Bi, X. Ma, F. Zhan, L. Wang, T. Hu, H. Zhou, Z. Hu, W. Zhou, L. Zhao, J. Chen, Y. Meng, J. Wang, Y. Lin, J. Yuan, Z. Xie, J. Ma, W.J. Liu, D. Wang, W. Xu, E.C. Holmes, G.F. Gao, G. Wu, W. Chen, W. Shi and W. Tan, Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: Implications for virus origins and receptor binding, Lancet (2020).
"2018 年，石正丽联合另外两个团队发现，导致2016 年广州仔猪致死性疾病的冠状病毒，与发生疫情猪场附近的蝙蝠洞穴中发现的冠状病毒全基因组序列一致性高达 98.48%，从而认定广州仔猪致死性疾病是来自于蝙蝠的冠状病毒造成的。这些研究找到了新发病毒的源头，对于防范未来的新发传染病很有帮助。"
那么请问:
按同样的逻辑，2013年发现的同2019武汉肺炎新冠状病毒有96.1%序列一致性的云南蝙蝠冠状病毒是否是这次疫情的源头呢?
Letter Published: 04 April 2018 Fatal swine acute diarrhoea syndrome caused by an HKU2-related coronavirus of bat origin Peng Zhou, Hang Fan, Tian Lan, Xing-Lou Yang, Wei-Feng Shi, Wei Zhang, Yan Zhu, Ya-Wei Zhang, Qing-Mei Xie, Shailendra Mani, Xiao-Shuang Zheng, Bei Li, Jin-Man Li, Hua Guo, Guang-Qian Pei, Xiao-Ping An, Jun-Wei Chen, Ling Zhou, Kai-Jie Mai, Zi-Xian Wu, Di Li, Danielle E. Anderson, Li-Biao Zhang, Shi-Yue Li, Zhi-Qiang Mi, Tong-Tong He, Feng Cong, Peng-Ju Guo, Ren Huang, Yun Luo, Xiang-Ling Liu, Jing Chen, Yong Huang, Qiang Sun, Xiang-Li-Lan Zhang, Yuan-Yuan Wang, Shao-Zhen Xing, Yan-Shan Chen, Yuan Sun, Juan Li, Peter Daszak, Lin-Fa Wang, Zheng-Li Shi, Yi-Gang Tong & Jing-Yun Ma - Show fewer authors
Nature volume 556, pages255–258(2018)Cite this article
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This article has been updated AbstractCross-species transmission of viruses from wildlife animal reservoirs poses a marked threat to human and animal health1. Bats have been recognized as one of the most important reservoirs for emerging viruses and the transmission of a coronavirus that originated in bats to humans via intermediate hosts was responsible for the high-impact emerging zoonosis, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. Here we provide virological, epidemiological, evolutionary and experimental evidence that a novel HKU2-related bat coronavirus, swine acute diarrhoea syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV), is the aetiological agent that was responsible for a large-scale outbreak of fatal disease in pigs in China that has caused the death of 24,693 piglets across four farms. Notably, the outbreak began in Guangdong province in the vicinity of the origin of the SARS pandemic. Furthermore, we identified SADS-related CoVs with 96–98% sequence identity in 9.8% (58 out of 591) of anal swabs collected from bats in Guangdong province during 2013–2016, predominantly in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.) that are known reservoirs of SARS-related CoVs. We found that there were striking similarities between the SADS and SARS outbreaks in geographical, temporal, ecological and aetiological settings. This study highlights the importance of identifying coronavirus diversity and distribution in bats to mitigate future outbreaks that could threaten livestock, public health and economic growth.
因为他们知道对人没危险。 我是倾向相信实验室的产物， 生物武器级。
不是人工病毒。前面那篇至少还用BLAST分析了DNA序列，这篇就是列举石教授的文章。这个病毒和之前合成的病毒相关系数低，也说明不了这个不是人工病毒。也许是在RaTG13的基础上重建的病毒，这也是可能的。从这篇文章的描述来看，RaTG13和SARS更具同源性，所以在RaTG13基础上构建可以感染人的病毒，对发展SARS疫苗更有研究价值。
“冠状病毒全基因组序列一致性高达 98.48%”能说明什么呢？
冠状病毒里又可细分为多种，就算是由同种一样冠状病毒变异来的，那么它变异一次能改变基因组序列？%
冠状病毒是RNA病毒，复制时容易产生突变。这类病毒基因的大概有不到三万碱基，一般而言，不是每次复制都有突变变，一次突变只有一个碱基发生变异。98.48%一致性，是指两个病毒基因的序列有98.48%相同，有1.52%, 即450左右的碱基不同。96.1%一致表明有约1100个碱基不同。遗传学家可以估计产生这些突变约需多长时间。有人说从云南蝙蝠病毒到武汉病毒需要25到65年，有人不同意。从石教授蝙蝠到猪病毒的情况看98.48%的一致性也就是需要两三年的时间进化而已。
根据文章最后的一段有关的研究，蝙蝠到猪，98%要两三年时间
蝙蝠到人，96%要多长时间进化？
自 2004 年开始，石正丽团队到中国各个省市采集了数千只中华菊头蝠标本，并对其体内病毒进行基因组分析。2013 年，他们在云南省一个洞穴中发现了一群携带有 SARS 样冠状病毒的中华菊头蝠，通过测序及序列比对，他们发现该病毒与 2003 年爆发的 SARS 病毒具有高度同源性。这个结果说明 SARS 病毒极可能起源于蝙蝠。此成果获得了中国国家自然科学奖二等奖。
也许有武装，但狼来了喊多次之后大家就不再警惕了。
但这个病毒的祖宗是不是他们带回来并泄露出去的，我说不准。巧合太多，不容易解释。
大概是说一般蝙蝠不直接传人，除非在粉尘很大的条件下，他们进洞不需要全副武装。
病毒变异也是为它们自己生存啊，它们也在不断找寻更适合宿主，在不同环境下这些突变时间可快可慢。
这次武冠病毒与SARS 病毒高度同源性，基因的序列接近，从治疗药物研究上说可以有类似共同点。 但是有人就此认为武冠一定是由SARS 病毒变异来的，这个可不一定：）
https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/02/moderately-strong-confirmation-of-a-laboratory-origin-of-2019-ncov/?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0
我觉得科学杂志的文章还是有些道理的。 ncov 2019 溯源问题综述： Ebright tells ScienceInsider that the 2019-nCoV data are “consistent with entry into the human population as either a natural accident or a laboratory accident.” “Shi did not reply to emails from Science” 石和武汉病毒所应该回应这篇文章。