Yellen needs to be more specific about the goal. Saying 2%
or so is not convincing. 這不是single factor calculation. 某天她可以說現在是百分之二啦,但民生用品還是很高,她的名字怎樣寫在歷史書上?我理解爲什麼這麼高,這麼難,但Fed should step up to talk about it and be honest.
加起來就可以看到從2008-2018, how much money pumped into the market, then 10/2020? started buying back 95 billions a month, 一年是1T。 Covid 把整個經濟停擺,supply chains start up overhead + 不是說 decouple 嗎?那材料就會緊張啊,所以Larry Summers said interest rates will stay high for a long while. I believe it.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
过去几年放出去的钱绝大部分没有收回。美联储靠着提高短期利率就把通胀压下来了。过去的通胀是过去利率过低造成产业譬如高科技产业金融产业房地产等等过热产生的。现在靠提高利率让这些过热产业回归正常,通胀也跟着控制下来了。但过去几年放出去的钱绝大部分并没有回收。可见当初放钱不是造成通胀的原因。
下来。
improvements.
https://www.ft.com/content/4beafb70-ec1a-41d3-b18e-33a85bf2a062
不是通缩。
or so is not convincing. 這不是single factor calculation. 某天她可以說現在是百分之二啦,但民生用品還是很高,她的名字怎樣寫在歷史書上?我理解爲什麼這麼高,這麼難,但Fed should step up to talk about it and be honest.
fed bought assets 2009[2010][2011][2012]....[2020]
fed unloads assets 95 billions
congress bill covid [加上keywords]
加起來就可以看到從2008-2018, how much money pumped into the market, then 10/2020? started buying back 95 billions a month, 一年是1T。 Covid 把整個經濟停擺,supply chains start up overhead + 不是說 decouple 嗎?那材料就會緊張啊,所以Larry Summers said interest rates will stay high for a long while. I believe it.
will reflect that sooner or later.
利息也讓corporations 利潤降低,同時higher unemployment, lower the demands, the price hopefully will come down.
But it is not going to play out like that this time, not quite.
2001-2006年是cheap沒錯。
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTRESNS
還有民主黨說要加 minimum wage. 政客就是這樣了。