- it's necessary to wash the dish from time to time, so that short term speculators, who don't deserve long term gains, will not get long term gains...... fundamentally this is the reason for corrections;
- in 2017 corrections were shallow because the retail speculators were not crowded on the long side.... from late 2017 to early 2018 there was a shift in retail sentiment, visible on the FXCM sentiment indicator, hence the prediction that shakes will be more violent in 2018;
- shakes usually need some 'reason', so that the professionals can let the media machine broadcast this reason to the crowd, to scare them, and to get the short term speculators to give up (the true long term holders will still hold); in August 2015 it was China, in Jan 2016 it was oil....
- right now the 'reason' is inflation, but the 'bogusness' is still quite visible.. Powell is likely to toe the same lines as Yellen; world GDP is expected to grow 4%; historically equities are natural inflation hedges, even if inflations are coming; equity yield spread vs gov bonds or Baa rated corporate bonds, both are still making bullish cases for stocks; tax cut is now a reality; more pro-business regulation cuts are underway by the administration; technology is still the driving force with nasdaq 100 expected to grow earnings by double digit this year, plus the massive infrastructure spending coming..... so much tail wind, yet they need a 'reason' to wash the dish, so 'inflation' it is.... I don't blame them... with so much retail money piled on, it IS due for a wash.
"Don't watch the market closely," he advised those worried about their retirement savings at the time. "If they're trying to buy and sell stocks, and worry when they go down a little bit … and think they should maybe sell them when they go up, they're not going to have very good results."
He recommends investors "re-watch their favorite Super Bowl commercials, get ice cream with their kids and say hi to a friend they haven't spoken with in a while."
- it's necessary to wash the dish from time to time, so that short term speculators, who don't deserve long term gains, will not get long term gains...... fundamentally this is the reason for corrections;
- in 2017 corrections were shallow because the retail speculators were not crowded on the long side.... from late 2017 to early 2018 there was a shift in retail sentiment, visible on the FXCM sentiment indicator, hence the prediction that shakes will be more violent in 2018;
- shakes usually need some 'reason', so that the professionals can let the media machine broadcast this reason to the crowd, to scare them, and to get the short term speculators to give up (the true long term holders will still hold); in August 2015 it was China, in Jan 2016 it was oil....
- right now the 'reason' is inflation, but the 'bogusness' is still quite visible.. Powell is likely to toe the same lines as Yellen; world GDP is expected to grow 4%; historically equities are natural inflation hedges, even if inflations are coming; equity yield spread vs gov bonds or Baa rated corporate bonds, both are still making bullish cases for stocks; tax cut is now a reality; more pro-business regulation cuts are underway by the administration; technology is still the driving force with nasdaq 100 expected to grow earnings by double digit this year, plus the massive infrastructure spending coming..... so much tail wind, yet they need a 'reason' to wash the dish, so 'inflation' it is.... I don't blame them... with so much retail money piled on, it IS due for a wash.
peace.
you should be able to answer the question yourself.... everyone's answer is different.
nothing and there might be better ways that I have not thought of.
"Don't watch the market closely," he advised those worried about their retirement savings at the time. "If they're trying to buy and sell stocks, and worry when they go down a little bit … and think they should maybe sell them when they go up, they're not going to have very good results."
He recommends investors "re-watch their favorite Super Bowl commercials, get ice cream with their kids and say hi to a friend they haven't spoken with in a while."
心理真是很奇妙的，看着账上红红一片，就恨不得一卖了事。
理智上知道：vix指数，fear/greed指数 却应该是进货的时间。
短线每天绞尽脑汁睬上下，弄不好输得比赢多。搞个省力的长期投资也是难受呢……乎上乎下的晕菜了
哎呦，日子不好过呀。