APAD: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

This expression is generally used in order to cast doubt on statistics produced

by somebody a person does not agree with, or to describe how statistics can be

manipulated to support almost any position.

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This was attributed by Mark Twain to Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881): "There are

three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." It's not clear how much

research either did.

 

Of course, it's humans instead of statistics to blame as practioners, for

expediency (read profit), willfully ignore rare but high-impact events, black

swans a la Nassim Taleb. If the facts do not fit the theory, change the facts.

Models are built, papers published, and text books written, all based on flawed

data.

 

The job for the rest of us is to try to stay a non-sucker.

A black swan represents an extreme or rare event,

which has potentially severe consequences…

Biased data lead to biased decision

And collectively, we build a lopsided world :-)

The idea is more popular than the bird :-)

Consider the feelings and well-being of the latter :-)

So the world is at a tipping point now

大奸似忠，大诈似信！

Hasn't it always been? Onto everyone that hath ..., e.g.

智慧出，有大伪。

这个更贴近英文原意。

I agree with the notion that statistics can be manipulated

I agree with the notion that statistics can be manipulated to support almost any position. It is true that statistics themselves may be accurate and based on data, but the interpretation of those statistics is where biases and manipulation can come into play. People often cherry-pick or selectively present statistics that align with their preconceived beliefs or desired outcomes, while ignoring or downplaying other relevant data. As individuals, it is crucial for us to approach statistics with skepticism and critical thinking. We should strive to be informed and discerning consumers of statistical information, questioning the motives and methodology behind the statistics presented to us. By doing so, we can avoid being easily swayed or deceived by misleading statistics and make more informed decisions.

If the facts do not fit the theory, change the facts！？

At least the last Stanford president did it :-)

Statistics are based on the assumption that God toss dice.

Fairly. Mark Twain Might be a friend of God, and knows that

God does it guarantee the dice is fair.

Are you saying that big data is nothing, if it‘s flawed：）

It can't capture what has not happened.