The Ebb and Flow of the Pandemic

r
renqiulan
楼主 (文学城)

Like it or not, we humans have been co-existing with deadly pathogens since time immemorial. We win. We lose. We survive. We thrive. We progress. So do our nemeses. That's why we still have nightmares. Actually, we never fail to remind ourselves of some pathogenic specter lurking around. Remember how we couldn't wait to stream the 2011 movie "Contagion" when COVID-19 hit America? We hate the pandemic so much that we love to see it unfolding on the screen. In the face of thrill, resistance is futile.

 

The current pandemic, like its precedents, has promised us a thrill ride, and we are on one. But if history is any guide, we will ride out the pandemic, sooner or later -- hopefully sooner. Charting the courses of past pandemics, we are quite confident to say that the current one will run its course. When it does, it has regressed to the mean. What is regression to the mean? It is a statistical concept indicating that extremities left and right will merge into the middle range. Applied to the prevailing pathogen, COVID will evolve toward a mild form. Warning: regression to the mean takes time. There could be a few more ups and downs before we get there. Yes, we are still on a thrill ride.

 

by renqiulan

-------------------

Google Image:

妖妖灵
Most of current COVID+ inpatients in the US are admitted due
妖妖灵
to other symptoms instead of COVID symptoms.
妖妖灵
今天中午才学的nemesis现在就认识了:)
r
renqiulan
That makes sense. We're in a flu season, aren't we?
r
renqiulan
Yes, we always have nemeses. Nature isn't so kind, after all
r
renqiulan
My hunch is that herd immunity is holding up in America.
移花接木
yes, towards the end the osilation scale's damping, but more
移花接木
rounds is certain.
妖妖灵
中国放开太快,放开之前药店都不允许卖退烧药。
妖妖灵
That‘s right. I think mRNA vaccines are more effective.
r
renqiulan
As I said above, we're still on a thrill ride.
r
renqiulan
Being denied free & open information, Chinese people...

might fall off a cliff without knowing it. State control will again extract an astronomically high human cost, as it  did frequently in the past. The emperor never learns.

r
renqiulan
The 1918 flu pandemic provides a good rear view.
移花接木
wish we don't get stuck in a merry-go-round
妖妖灵
不会的,现在的毒力减轻太多了。中国在放开之前把感冒退烧药提前备好,会好很多~
r
renqiulan
I rather err on the side of caution. Yes, cautious optimism.
r
renqiulan
妖妖灵, color me skeptical.
j
jianchi9090
新冠现在全国这么多人感染,虽然有人死亡,但是占百分比应该还是非常低的, 大流行要结束了。 未来会有类感冒的小流行。
r
renqiulan
Let's keep our fingers crossed.