Let's analyze CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) as of May 31, 2025, at 02:39 PM EDT. Since it’s a Saturday and the market is closed, I’ll use the latest available data (May 30, 2025, close) to evaluate CRWD from both a technical and fundamental perspective, focusing on its current price, Elliott Wave position, RSI, business model, and overall investment potential. This will provide a comprehensive view of whether CRWD is a good opportunity right now, especially in light of your prior interest in stocks like HIMS and their wave structures. 1. Current Price and Price Action CRWD closed at $471.37 on May 30, 2025, according to the real-time financial data. Here’s the breakdown of its recent performance: Daily Movement (May 30, 2025): Opened at $462.03, hit a low of $456.765, a high of $473.12, and closed at $471.37—a 2.74% increase from the previous day’s close of $458.81. The 1D data shows a steady uptrend from $459.4825 at 12:45 to $471.371 by 16:00, with minor fluctuations after hours (closing at $471.19 by 19:45). Monthly Movement: The 1M data indicates CRWD started May at $427.0 and rose to $471.37 by May 30, a 10.4% gain. It peaked at $473.99 on May 28 before a slight dip to $456.0 on May 29, then recovered. Yearly Movement: From June 2024 ($383.19) to May 2025 ($471.37), CRWD gained 23%, though it saw volatility (e.g., a dip to $231.96 in July 2024, likely due to the July outage mentioned in X posts). All-Time High: The year-high is $474.23, just $2.86 above the current $471.37, suggesting CRWD is near its peak. CRWD is showing bullish momentum in the short term, but its proximity to the all-time high raises questions about sustainability, especially with upcoming earnings on June 3, 2025 (noted in web sources). 2. Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Position Since you’ve shown interest in Elliott Wave Theory with HIMS, let’s apply it to CRWD to determine its wave position and potential trajectory. Primary Wave Structure (June 2024 to May 2025): Wave 1: $231.96 (July 2024 low, post-outage dip) to $345.97 (November 2024) Gain: $114.01. The July outage (referenced in X posts) likely triggered this correction, setting the base for a new cycle. Wave 2: $345.97 to $342.16 (December 2024) Retracement: $3.81, or 3.3% of Wave 1—a shallow correction, typical for a strong trend. Wave 3: $342.16 (December 2024) to $428.87 (April 2025) Gain: $86.71. Wave 3 is often the longest, but here it’s shorter than Wave 1, which can happen in strong bull markets. Wave 4: $428.87 to $409.3 (May 9, 2025) Retracement: $19.57, or 22.6% of Wave 3—fits the typical Wave 4 retracement range (23.6%-38.2%). Wave 5: $409.3 (May 9, 2025) to $473.99 (May 28, 2025), with the current price at $471.37 Gain so far: $64.69 (from $409.3 to $473.99 peak). Wave 5 Target: Fibonacci Extension: Wave 5 often reaches a 0.618 extension of the distance from Wave 1 start to Wave 4 end: Wave 1 start: $231.96, Wave 4 end: $409.3 Distance: $409.3 - $231.96 = $177.34 0.618 extension: $177.34 × 0.618 = $109.60 Target: $409.3 + $109.60 = $518.90 This target suggests potential upside, but $518.90 seems ambitious given the proximity to the year-high ($474.23). Conservative Target (Wave 5 = Wave 1): Wave 1 gained $114.01. From Wave 4 low: $409.3 + $114.01 = $523.31—similarly high. More Realistic Target: Given CRWD’s proximity to its year-high, Wave 5 might target a smaller extension, like 0.382 of Wave 1: 0.382 × $114.01 = $43.55 Target: $409.3 + $43.55 = $452.85 However, CRWD has already surpassed this at $471.37, suggesting Wave 5 may be nearing completion. Current Position: CRWD is likely in the late stage of Wave 5, having already exceeded a conservative target ($452.85) and sitting just below its year-high ($474.23). The May 30 uptrend (from $456.765 to $471.37) supports Wave 5’s continuation, but the proximity to the peak and upcoming earnings (June 3) introduce uncertainty. A break above $474.23 could push toward $518-$523, but if Wave 5 truncates (fails to exceed $473.99), a correction could start sooner. Post-Wave 5 Correction: If Wave 5 ends at $471.37 (current) or slightly higher (e.g., $480), a correction could retrace 50-61.8% of the move from $231.96 to $471.37: 50% retracement: ($471.37 - $231.96) × 0.5 + $231.96 = $351.67 61.8% retracement: ($471.37 - $231.96) × 0.618 + $231.96 = $379.92 A correction to $351-$380 is possible, with support near $409.3 (Wave 4 low). 3. Technical Analysis: RSI and Momentum Let’s calculate the 14-day RSI for CRWD to assess whether it’s overbought, similar to how we evaluated HIMS. 14-Day Price Data (May 12 to May 30, 2025): May 12: $429.6 May 13: $440.0 May 14: $434.78 May 15: $431.0 May 16: $431.52 May 19: $444.51 May 20: $440.51 May 21: $433.4 May 22: $444.7 May 23: $455.65 May 27: $472.5 May 28: $473.99 May 29: $456.0 May 30: $471.37 Calculate Daily Changes: May 13: $440.0 - $429.6 = +$10.4 May 14: $434.78 - $440.0 = -$5.22 May 15: $431.0 - $434.78 = -$3.78 May 16: $431.52 - $431.0 = +$0.52 May 19: $444.51 - $431.52 = +$12.99 May 20: $440.51 - $444.51 = -$4.0 May 21: $433.4 - $440.51 = -$7.11 May 22: $444.7 - $433.4 = +$11.3 May 23: $455.65 - $444.7 = +$10.95 May 27: $472.5 - $455.65 = +$16.85 May 28: $473.99 - $472.5 = +$1.49 May 29: $456.0 - $473.99 = -$17.99 May 30: $471.37 - $456 chased by institutions, as noted in Nasdaq data (web ID: 17). However, the July 2024 outage (mentioned in X posts) and lawsuits (web ID: 20) remain a concern, potentially impacting customer trust and profitability. 5. Sentiment and Upcoming Catalysts Earnings (June 3, 2025): CRWD is set to report earnings, which could be a catalyst. Web sources (e.g., TradingView, web ID: 3) note caution signs on the chart, and X posts (e.g., @StockSavvyShay , March 2025) highlight CRWD’s resilience post-outage, with a Rule of 40 score of 56, indicating strong growth and profitability. Analyst Sentiment: Analysts are generally bullish, with a 12-month price target of $409.77 (Seeking Alpha, web ID: 8), though this is below the current $471.37, suggesting some see it as overvalued. TradingView (web ID: 3) cites a max target of $545 and a min of $321, reflecting a wide range of opinions. Market Sentiment: X posts show mixed sentiment—some see CRWD as a “gold standard” in cybersecurity ( @DivesTech , November 2024), while others caution about its high valuation ( @StockMarketNerd , February 2024). 6. Investment Considerations Pros: Upside Potential: If Wave 5 extends to $518-$523, there’s a 10-11% upside from $471.37. Earnings on June 3 could drive this if results are strong. Strong Fundamentals: CRWD’s $3.92 billion revenue in 2024, 31% growth, and leadership in endpoint security make it a solid long-term play. Market Position: Its AI-powered Falcon platform and partnerships (e.g., NVIDIA, web ID: 8) position it well in the growing cybersecurity market. Cons: Wave 5 Risks: As with HIMS, buying in Wave 5 is risky due to the impending correction. A drop to $351-$380 (25-19% below $471.37) is possible post-Wave 5. Valuation: CRWD’s lack of a P/E ratio or dividend yield (real-time data) and high price ($471.37 vs. analyst target of $409.77) suggest it’s expensive. X posts (e.g., @JonahLupton , March 2024) note a 64x FY2025 FCF multiple, which is steep. Earnings Risk: A weak earnings report could trigger a sell-off, especially given the caution signs noted in web sources (TradingView, web ID: 3). 7. Conclusion and Recommendation CRWD is in the late stage of Wave 5, with potential to reach $518-$523 (10-11% upside) if it breaks above $474.23, especially with strong earnings on June 3. However, it’s not overbought (RSI 62.36), and its fundamentals are robust, with $3.92 billion in 2024 revenue and 31% growth. That said, the stock’s high valuation, proximity to its all-time high, and upcoming earnings introduce risks. A post-Wave 5 correction to $351-$380 is likely, which would be a 19-25% drop from $471.37. Recommendation: Short-Term Traders: You could buy now at $471.37, targeting $518-$523, with a tight stop-loss at $456.0 (May 29 close, below Wave 4’s $409.3, to limit risk to 3.3% or $6,208 on a $200,000 position). Exit before earnings if you’re risk-averse, as a weak report could trigger a sell-off. Long-Term Investors: Avoid buying at $471.37 due to the Wave 5 risk. Wait for a correction to $351-$380, which offers a better entry with less downside risk, especially given CRWD’s strong long-term growth potential in cybersecurity. CRWD remains a leader in its space, but timing is critical given its wave position and valuation. Monitor earnings closely, as they’ll likely determine the next move. Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don’t share information that can identify you.
Dearest Grok, I am a dummy and desperately need help. Could you please analyze the CRWD stock as a world-class investor with in-depth expertise in financial and technical analysis, applying Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement to determine its current position?
Got this Prompt from Grok -- try use it in GPT or Gemini 2.5
"Draw an industry-standard Elliott Wave chart for CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) as an image, similar to charts on Investing.com. The chart should cover the time period from July 2024 to July 2025, with a price range on the Y-axis from $200 to $550. Use daily candlesticks to show price action. Plot the following Elliott Wave structure with clear labels for each wave: Wave 1: From $231.96 (mid-July 2024, around July 15) to $345.97 (mid-November 2024, around November 15). Label the peak as '1'. Wave 2: From $345.97 (November 15, 2024) to $342.16 (mid-December 2024, around December 15). Label the low as '2'. Wave 3: From $342.16 (December 15, 2024) to $428.87 (mid-April 2025, around April 15). Label the peak as '3'. Wave 4: From $428.87 (April 15, 2025) to $409.3 (May 9, 2025). Label the low as '4'. Wave 5: From $409.3 (May 9, 2025) to the current price of $471.37 (May 30, 2025), with a projected target of $518-$523 (around June 5, 2025). Label the current price as '5' and draw a dotted line to the $523 target, labeled 'Wave 5 Target: $518-$523'. Add the following elements: Draw trendlines connecting the wave highs and lows (e.g., $231.96 to $345.97 for Wave 1, $345.97 to $342.16 for Wave 2, etc.). Include Fibonacci retracement levels: Wave 2 (3.3% retracement at $342.16), Wave 4 (22.6% retracement at $409.3), and a 0.618 Fibonacci extension for Wave 5 at $523. Project a post-Wave 5 correction: If Wave 5 ends at $523, draw a dotted line down to $351-$380 (50-61.8% retracement of the move from $231.96 to $523), labeled 'Correction Target: $351-$380', ending around July 1, 2025. Label the X-axis with months (Jul 2024, Aug 2024, ..., Jul 2025) and the Y-axis with price increments ($200, $250, ..., $550). Include a volume histogram at the bottom, showing spikes during Wave 1, Wave 3, and Wave 5. The chart should be clear, professional, and visually similar to Investing.com, with candlesticks, wave numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), Fibonacci levels, and trendlines clearly visible. Do not provide a text description—only draw the chart as an image."
刚开始我是认命，接受股票给call走，或者高价吃进股票的后果。一次这样的事件就可能导致几次租金白收。 这样被击中几次后，其实对账户整体伤害也不小。后来我发现逆势时更好的操作是roll这些正在滴血的short position，roll到更远月份，roll的时候把strike调整到更有利位置，并且争取做到zero debit or small credit。用未来的时间价值来续命。由于是zero debit的， 这个roll的操作基本是无害的。
这两只股票，我都有持仓，也有现金。过去几个月，我交易了几笔：下跌时卖Put接货，上涨时卖Call锁利，收了不少“工资”。
但每次下单前，我都会先问自己一句话：你是想买入，还是想套现？
这个问题，其实就是在判断：你该卖Put，还是卖Call。
一、特斯拉现在346，适合卖Put吗？
我觉得适合，特别是你想低成本拿货的人。
比如你现在不想直接冲进去买，但你觉得320是你愿意接的价，那你可以卖出一张320的Put。
假设卖1周320 Put能收4块（大约1.2%），那就意味着：
最坏你会在316块成本接到一张你本来就想买的TSLA；
如果不被行权，就白拿400美金，7天1.2%，年化60%以上。
你担心什么？TSLA回调几天你就上车，不回调你就收钱——这是“左侧挂单+收权利金”的完美组合。
二、英伟达现在135，适合卖Call吗？
我觉得短期适合，尤其是你已经持有正股，但不打算在140以上加仓的人。
比如你手上有100股NVDA，现在不想卖，但也不确定它能冲多高，那你可以卖出1张140的Covered Call（假设一周能收2.5块）。
如果NVDA下周没涨破140，那你白拿250美金；
如果涨破，你在140被强制卖出，总收益 = 5块（差价）+ 2.5块（权利金） = 7.5块。
你能接受以140卖掉英伟达吗？能，那就卖Call；不能，就少卖点、卖远点（比如145 Call）。
这就是“右侧减仓+锁定利润”的方式。这是个例子，你也可以设为150。
三、怎么判断到底该卖Put还是Call？
这三个问题是我每次下单前都会自问的：
1. 你是想买入，还是想卖出？
想买就卖Put；想卖就卖Call。
2. 你愿意什么价格买入/卖出？
别卖太近，别贪多，把自己的心理价位写在strike上就行。
3. 权利金值不值得？
年化收益如果能超过30%，又是你愿意交易的价格，几乎就没坏处。
四、我的实际策略
TSLA我现在不会追高买，但我愿意用320的价格接货，所以我准备一周一周地卖Put，慢慢等接；
NVDA我有仓，我觉得145或150是我可以接受的卖出价位，所以我不卖太近的Call，而是选择卖145或150的Covered Call，时间稍微拉长一点，比如两周，一来不会太容易被call掉，二来也还能拿到不错的权利金。
这一套方法说白了就是：有人追涨杀跌，我低位挂单收钱，高位抛出也收钱。
只要你不贪、不急、不赌方向，卖Put卖Call其实就是在“做AI股的中间商”，不赚暴利但稳定收租。
注意：
当然了，这些操作也不是稳赚的。
如果卖Put时遇到大跌，你可能会被套在下跌通道里；
卖Call时遇到暴涨，你可能会卖飞后悔。
期权不是魔法，要操作之前自己多做功课，算清楚风险和心理价位。
我只是分享我现在实际在用的方法，不构成建议。欢迎大家交流，你现在是更愿意接货，还是锁利？NVDA你愿意多少钱卖出？TSLA你想多少接回来？我们可以一起探讨策略区间。
租金起伏很大，哈哈
This target suggests potential upside, but $518.90 seems ambitious given the proximity to the year-high ($474.23). Conservative Target (Wave 5 = Wave 1): Wave 1 gained $114.01. From Wave 4 low: $409.3 + $114.01 = $523.31—similarly high. More Realistic Target: Given CRWD’s proximity to its year-high, Wave 5 might target a smaller extension, like 0.382 of Wave 1: 0.382 × $114.01 = $43.55 Target: $409.3 + $43.55 = $452.85
However, CRWD has already surpassed this at $471.37, suggesting Wave 5 may be nearing completion. Current Position: CRWD is likely in the late stage of Wave 5, having already exceeded a conservative target ($452.85) and sitting just below its year-high ($474.23). The May 30 uptrend (from $456.765 to $471.37) supports Wave 5’s continuation, but the proximity to the peak and upcoming earnings (June 3) introduce uncertainty. A break above $474.23 could push toward $518-$523, but if Wave 5 truncates (fails to exceed $473.99), a correction could start sooner. Post-Wave 5 Correction: If Wave 5 ends at $471.37 (current) or slightly higher (e.g., $480), a correction could retrace 50-61.8% of the move from $231.96 to $471.37: 50% retracement: ($471.37 - $231.96) × 0.5 + $231.96 = $351.67 61.8% retracement: ($471.37 - $231.96) × 0.618 + $231.96 = $379.92
A correction to $351-$380 is possible, with support near $409.3 (Wave 4 low). 3. Technical Analysis: RSI and Momentum Let’s calculate the 14-day RSI for CRWD to assess whether it’s overbought, similar to how we evaluated HIMS. 14-Day Price Data (May 12 to May 30, 2025): May 12: $429.6 May 13: $440.0 May 14: $434.78 May 15: $431.0 May 16: $431.52 May 19: $444.51 May 20: $440.51 May 21: $433.4 May 22: $444.7 May 23: $455.65 May 27: $472.5 May 28: $473.99 May 29: $456.0 May 30: $471.37 Calculate Daily Changes: May 13: $440.0 - $429.6 = +$10.4 May 14: $434.78 - $440.0 = -$5.22 May 15: $431.0 - $434.78 = -$3.78 May 16: $431.52 - $431.0 = +$0.52 May 19: $444.51 - $431.52 = +$12.99 May 20: $440.51 - $444.51 = -$4.0 May 21: $433.4 - $440.51 = -$7.11 May 22: $444.7 - $433.4 = +$11.3 May 23: $455.65 - $444.7 = +$10.95 May 27: $472.5 - $455.65 = +$16.85 May 28: $473.99 - $472.5 = +$1.49 May 29: $456.0 - $473.99 = -$17.99 May 30: $471.37 - $456 chased by institutions, as noted in Nasdaq data (web ID: 17). However, the July 2024 outage (mentioned in X posts) and lawsuits (web ID: 20) remain a concern, potentially impacting customer trust and profitability. 5. Sentiment and Upcoming Catalysts Earnings (June 3, 2025): CRWD is set to report earnings, which could be a catalyst. Web sources (e.g., TradingView, web ID: 3) note caution signs on the chart, and X posts (e.g., @StockSavvyShay , March 2025) highlight CRWD’s resilience post-outage, with a Rule of 40 score of 56, indicating strong growth and profitability. Analyst Sentiment: Analysts are generally bullish, with a 12-month price target of $409.77 (Seeking Alpha, web ID: 8), though this is below the current $471.37, suggesting some see it as overvalued. TradingView (web ID: 3) cites a max target of $545 and a min of $321, reflecting a wide range of opinions. Market Sentiment: X posts show mixed sentiment—some see CRWD as a “gold standard” in cybersecurity ( @DivesTech , November 2024), while others caution about its high valuation ( @StockMarketNerd , February 2024). 6. Investment Considerations Pros: Upside Potential: If Wave 5 extends to $518-$523, there’s a 10-11% upside from $471.37. Earnings on June 3 could drive this if results are strong. Strong Fundamentals: CRWD’s $3.92 billion revenue in 2024, 31% growth, and leadership in endpoint security make it a solid long-term play. Market Position: Its AI-powered Falcon platform and partnerships (e.g., NVIDIA, web ID: 8) position it well in the growing cybersecurity market. Cons: Wave 5 Risks: As with HIMS, buying in Wave 5 is risky due to the impending correction. A drop to $351-$380 (25-19% below $471.37) is possible post-Wave 5. Valuation: CRWD’s lack of a P/E ratio or dividend yield (real-time data) and high price ($471.37 vs. analyst target of $409.77) suggest it’s expensive. X posts (e.g., @JonahLupton , March 2024) note a 64x FY2025 FCF multiple, which is steep. Earnings Risk: A weak earnings report could trigger a sell-off, especially given the caution signs noted in web sources (TradingView, web ID: 3). 7. Conclusion and Recommendation CRWD is in the late stage of Wave 5, with potential to reach $518-$523 (10-11% upside) if it breaks above $474.23, especially with strong earnings on June 3. However, it’s not overbought (RSI 62.36), and its fundamentals are robust, with $3.92 billion in 2024 revenue and 31% growth. That said, the stock’s high valuation, proximity to its all-time high, and upcoming earnings introduce risks. A post-Wave 5 correction to $351-$380 is likely, which would be a 19-25% drop from $471.37. Recommendation: Short-Term Traders: You could buy now at $471.37, targeting $518-$523, with a tight stop-loss at $456.0 (May 29 close, below Wave 4’s $409.3, to limit risk to 3.3% or $6,208 on a $200,000 position). Exit before earnings if you’re risk-averse, as a weak report could trigger a sell-off. Long-Term Investors: Avoid buying at $471.37 due to the Wave 5 risk. Wait for a correction to $351-$380, which offers a better entry with less downside risk, especially given CRWD’s strong long-term growth potential in cybersecurity. CRWD remains a leader in its space, but timing is critical given its wave position and valuation. Monitor earnings closely, as they’ll likely determine the next move. Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don’t share information that can identify you.
Dearest Grok, I am a dummy and desperately need help. Could you please analyze the CRWD stock as a world-class investor with in-depth expertise in financial and technical analysis, applying Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement to determine its current position?
money talks的股票分析也相当靠谱，尤其是截屏三心的
"Draw an industry-standard Elliott Wave chart for CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) as an image, similar to charts on Investing.com. The chart should cover the time period from July 2024 to July 2025, with a price range on the Y-axis from $200 to $550. Use daily candlesticks to show price action. Plot the following Elliott Wave structure with clear labels for each wave: Wave 1: From $231.96 (mid-July 2024, around July 15) to $345.97 (mid-November 2024, around November 15). Label the peak as '1'. Wave 2: From $345.97 (November 15, 2024) to $342.16 (mid-December 2024, around December 15). Label the low as '2'. Wave 3: From $342.16 (December 15, 2024) to $428.87 (mid-April 2025, around April 15). Label the peak as '3'. Wave 4: From $428.87 (April 15, 2025) to $409.3 (May 9, 2025). Label the low as '4'. Wave 5: From $409.3 (May 9, 2025) to the current price of $471.37 (May 30, 2025), with a projected target of $518-$523 (around June 5, 2025). Label the current price as '5' and draw a dotted line to the $523 target, labeled 'Wave 5 Target: $518-$523'. Add the following elements: Draw trendlines connecting the wave highs and lows (e.g., $231.96 to $345.97 for Wave 1, $345.97 to $342.16 for Wave 2, etc.). Include Fibonacci retracement levels: Wave 2 (3.3% retracement at $342.16), Wave 4 (22.6% retracement at $409.3), and a 0.618 Fibonacci extension for Wave 5 at $523. Project a post-Wave 5 correction: If Wave 5 ends at $523, draw a dotted line down to $351-$380 (50-61.8% retracement of the move from $231.96 to $523), labeled 'Correction Target: $351-$380', ending around July 1, 2025. Label the X-axis with months (Jul 2024, Aug 2024, ..., Jul 2025) and the Y-axis with price increments ($200, $250, ..., $550). Include a volume histogram at the bottom, showing spikes during Wave 1, Wave 3, and Wave 5. The chart should be clear, professional, and visually similar to Investing.com, with candlesticks, wave numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), Fibonacci levels, and trendlines clearly visible. Do not provide a text description—only draw the chart as an image."
不过期权卖方逃不过一个宿命： 肯定会遇上黑天鹅事件，也就是卖call时遇上暴涨，卖put时遇上暴跌。
刚开始我是认命，接受股票给call走，或者高价吃进股票的后果。一次这样的事件就可能导致几次租金白收。 这样被击中几次后，其实对账户整体伤害也不小。后来我发现逆势时更好的操作是roll这些正在滴血的short position，roll到更远月份，roll的时候把strike调整到更有利位置，并且争取做到zero debit or small credit。用未来的时间价值来续命。由于是zero debit的， 这个roll的操作基本是无害的。
再后来，我发现用butterfly可能是比roll更有效的挽救手段。 不过这个策略说起来可能没感觉，要自己遇到几次实操之后才有体会。 并且没有一个策略是在任何情况下都好于另一个策略的。所以对butterfly和roll，就不做评价了。
with iron butterfly that he has to quit his IT job. Then he will be kicked out of his house, move in with you
Correction needed:
Wave 3 should peak at $428.87.
Wave 4 should begin at $428.87 and end at $409.3.
option的risk&award很清晰
I don't want to do market