和brightline 商讨,前几波(尤其第一波)是不是用 sell naked puts 更好?

Q
QQQ2074
楼主 (文学城)

比如QQQ 500 要进货,用sell QQQ 500 put 的方式多赚一点premium。 当然也可能捡了芝麻(premium), 没进到QQQ。 但是考虑到是第一波,往往在范围的上沿。本来第一波也进不了太多货。用sell put 的方法心里上就没那么怕跌

 

B
BrightLine
我也是怎么想的,哈哈
Q
QQQ2074
哈哈,所见略同!QQQ ATM premium 有2% /week。 还是很可观的
三心三意
最好的组合是ratio put spread + call spread with $0 premium
三心三意
这样指数跌你可以在更低接盘,涨你可以在call spread上 赚
三心三意
premium cost is 0
Q
QQQ2074
能用今天的数据举个QQQ的例子吗? 多谢
g
gladys
不好。Selling puts 赚premium应该在底部做。

特别第一波的时候put premium 很低。

Q
QQQ2074
底部直接上QQQ,吃长线不是更好吗? sell put 只抓小鱼
g
gladys
put 在高位的时候太便宜了,不值得吃premium
Q
QQQ2074
不是和sell put 效果差不多?
Q
QQQ2074
那第一波怎么进?
三心三意
See this example

With this combo, you will

1: Have QQQ assigned to you at 455 if market keeps dropping from here towards mid of April, which is 20 points lower than where QQQ is now

2: Make 20 point profit if QQQ rally to or above 495 by mid April.

3: If market drops very quickly first, say to 450, you could potentially close the 495 call with very little cost, and when market rally back later in April, your 475 call has unlimited profit potential

4: Similarily, if market rally very fast first, you can close the call spread with a profit, let's say 12 out of 20 points here, and that profit will help you even more if market then crash back because you will now be assigned at 455-12=433 QQQ.

Vast majority of option combo i have been buying in last couple of days on QQQ is using this strategy.

g
gladys
不进啊。股票在下降过程中, put 变得越来越贵, 没必要提早sell
三心三意
Finally, if market really rallies (assume you trust TA)...

You can close call spread with a profit and then buy stock at that time , you make a little less (because call spread profit wont be the same level as owning the stock), but you have much higher probability of winning, rather than pure guess at this time

Q
QQQ2074
进货不是一个范围吗? 第一波一般在范围的高段
Q
QQQ2074
多谢。前两点和sell 465 put 差不多。后两点是这个方法的独特优势
蓝山飞狐
关键问题是:如何预测有几波下跌。下跌5%的时候我就开始进货了。结果这波有3个5%。
g
gladys
反正试着卖一个感受下呗
三心三意
Yeah, more flexibility (you can close put spread first too)
Q
QQQ2074
就是有点像两头买(但是用的是spread), 有一边赚了,先关了。另一边赌一下
Q
QQQ2074
只能分拨进,事先画好范围和步数
s
suby
sell put简单,闪崩时做最好,premium很高,就是盯盘麻烦。特斯拉我做过好多波,结局都不错。
三心三意
那些是优化的手段,即使什么都不做,你也有机会在455买入,或者在股市反弹时赚20点
Q
QQQ2074
你一般都是做一个月以后的吗?
三心三意
根据具体情况看。这个策略可以时间长一点,因为time value 对它有利
g
gladys
我懂了,你分三段分别sell。 是的,在每一段的底部sell, good strategy