amit@amitisinvesting WHY DONALD TRUMP WANTS THE MARKET TO CRASH ….in the short term This chart below sums up the reasoning behind what the current adminstration is doing and why it is having adverse effects on the market. Kris @KrisPatel99
did a great job today explaining this more in depth on the market open & I think the thesis checks out: 1. We have $7T of debt we need to pay in the next 6 months…if we don’t pay it, we’ll have to refinance. 2. The Trump admin does NOT want to refinance at a 4%+ rate…the 10yr at one point this year was 4.8%. 3. How do you get the 10yr to come down? Markets need to show weakness in growth, DOGE has to be perceived as actually working, interest rates need to come down. The way to do that is to create massive uncertainties — aka tariffs — which can slow down growth in the short term, get the bond market to start BUYING bonds ASAP because of how scared they are of touching stocks (causing yields to fall which is what we need to refinance the debt) and then that gives the Fed the authority to lower rates which continues to bring yields down. So, although conventional wisdom says tariffs are inflationary and the 10yr should be spiking on more tariffs — it’s actually going down because its bringing so much uncertainly to equity markets that people are selling stocks and buying bonds! Which is exactly what the Trump administration wants to happen in the short term in order to bring refinancing costs down. Short term pain for long term gain?
这是由美国的财政状况及老川的政策决定的，不以人的意志为转移的。
1）美国现在有36万亿囯债：光利息每年就有一万个亿，压力山大。今年又有十几万亿要新债换旧债。而十年利率又居高不下。唯有人为的让股市回调，把一部分钱赶进中长期债市，政府的十年债券利率才会降低。现在的十年利率才4.2% (原来是4.8 ％).
2）对富人及公司减息是老川的既定方针。川普第一任时的减税今年底就要到期，必须保证有足够的税收，减税法案才可能得以延续。而关税则为增加财政收入的有效途径。
3）至于股市的下跌，老川二任时期，肯定没有一任时那么在乎。而且，越早崩盘，就越容易甩锅给前任。而且在任期内股市恢复并创新高的可能性很大。另外，轻微的股市下跌，轻微的经济衰退是治疗通货膨胀的有效方法。
4）个人认为：股市会继续下跌，10年利率会继续下降，关税战会继续和扩大，富人和公司减税法案会获得通过，经济会有轻微短暂的衰退，美联储会继续降息。然后，经济扩张，股市止跌回升！
前途是光明的，但道路是曲折的。
5）应对策略就是：加强型定投（也就是我们投坛糊涂师傅的偷鸡摸狗式定投）
股市扑朔迷离，无法预测。
以上纯属胡扯。
YMYD.
amit @amitisinvesting WHY DONALD TRUMP WANTS THE MARKET TO CRASH ….in the short term
did a great job today explaining this more in depth on the market open & I think the thesis checks out: 1. We have $7T of debt we need to pay in the next 6 months…if we don’t pay it, we’ll have to refinance. 2. The Trump admin does NOT want to refinance at a 4%+ rate…the 10yr at one point this year was 4.8%. 3. How do you get the 10yr to come down? Markets need to show weakness in growth, DOGE has to be perceived as actually working, interest rates need to come down. The way to do that is to create massive uncertainties — aka tariffs — which can slow down growth in the short term, get the bond market to start BUYING bonds ASAP because of how scared they are of touching stocks (causing yields to fall which is what we need to refinance the debt) and then that gives the Fed the authority to lower rates which continues to bring yields down. So, although conventional wisdom says tariffs are inflationary and the 10yr should be spiking on more tariffs — it’s actually going down because its bringing so much uncertainly to equity markets that people are selling stocks and buying bonds! Which is exactly what the Trump administration wants to happen in the short term in order to bring refinancing costs down. Short term pain for long term gain?
看样子我不是在胡扯！
美股尽管有曲折的一段路要走，
但前途是光明的。
准备好现金：定投！
不然的话，回家就要跪搓衣板了。
25%应该是底线。 甚至25%都不应该。 身价三四米跌掉一米是巨大损失。
巴菲特名言， 投资就两条， 第一是不亏钱， 第二是牢记第一条。
我想2022年， 好多家庭从高点下来， 以米计算的
就是没啥逻辑
当然我同意你说的那些