Investors should prepare for "potential significant new China AI and export license restrictions" from the Trump administration, a Wall Street analyst said Friday. The news is likely to weigh on Nvidia (NVDA) stock and other AI chipmakers.
In a client note Friday, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh said he expects the new restrictions to come in the weeks ahead after a couple of new administration appointees are confirmed. We believe, based on industry headlines and checks with our Washington group, there could be significant AI restrictions coming," Rakesh said. He cited the pending nominations at the Department of Commerce of Landon Heid for assistant secretary and Jeffrey Kessler for undersecretary at the Bureau of Industry and Security.
The appointments could lead to "a complete ban of all AI chips to China," Rakesh said. That would impact Nvidia's H20 and B20, which are currently permitted for sale in China. Those processors have lesser capabilities compared with Nvidia's top-of-the-line AI processors.
The potential impact to Nvidia for fiscal 2026 could be a reduction in revenue of $4 billion to $6 billion. It could also entail a cut to earnings per share of 13 cents to 18 cents, Rakesh said.
We believe the restrictions could extend 1) to potentially all China AI chip exports, and some legacy chips also included, 2) and could impact export licenses to countries with strong relationships to China," he said.
Nvidia Stock Wavers After Report
In fiscal 2025, China accounted for about 13% of Nvidia's total revenue, or about $17 billion including about $10 billion-plus in AI revenue.
Broadcom (AVGO) also would be affected because it has a custom AI chip project with China's ByteDance, Rakesh said.
In morning trades on the stock market today, Nvidia stock fell as much as 3.1% before recovering. Nvidia stock ended the regular trading session up 3.9% to 124.81.
Broadcom stock climbed 0.8% to close at 199.45.
Microsoft Seeks To Loosen AI-Chip Export Restrictions
Meanwhile, software giant Microsoft (MSFT) has asked President Donald Trump to change U.S. policy that heavily restricts exports of artificial intelligence chips.
In a blog post Thursday, Brad Smith, Microsoft's vice chair and president, took aim at the Biden administration's last-minute final AI Diffusion Rule, which caps the export of U.S. AI components to "many fast-growing and strategically vital markets."
"As drafted, the rule undermines two Trump administration priorities: strengthening U.S. AI leadership and reducing the nation's near trillion-dollar trade deficit," Smith said. "Left unchanged, the Biden rule will give China a strategic advantage in spreading over time its own AI technology, echoing its rapid ascent in 5G telecommunications a decade ago."
The Biden rule change put many U.S. allies in a category that imposes quantitative limits on the ability of U.S. tech companies to build and expand AI data centers in their countries, Smith said. Those countries include India, Indonesia, Israel, Greece, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates.
"If left unchanged, the Diffusion Rule will become a gift to China's rapidly expanding AI sector," Smith said.
Investors should prepare for "potential significant new China AI and export license restrictions" from the Trump administration, a Wall Street analyst said Friday. The news is likely to weigh on Nvidia (NVDA) stock and other AI chipmakers.
In a client note Friday, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh said he expects the new restrictions to come in the weeks ahead after a couple of new administration appointees are confirmed.
We believe, based on industry headlines and checks with our Washington group, there could be significant AI restrictions coming," Rakesh said. He cited the pending nominations at the Department of Commerce of Landon Heid for assistant secretary and Jeffrey Kessler for undersecretary at the Bureau of Industry and Security.
The appointments could lead to "a complete ban of all AI chips to China," Rakesh said. That would impact Nvidia's H20 and B20, which are currently permitted for sale in China. Those processors have lesser capabilities compared with Nvidia's top-of-the-line AI processors.
The potential impact to Nvidia for fiscal 2026 could be a reduction in revenue of $4 billion to $6 billion. It could also entail a cut to earnings per share of 13 cents to 18 cents, Rakesh said.
We believe the restrictions could extend 1) to potentially all China AI chip exports, and some legacy chips also included, 2) and could impact export licenses to countries with strong relationships to China," he said.
Nvidia Stock Wavers After ReportIn fiscal 2025, China accounted for about 13% of Nvidia's total revenue, or about $17 billion including about $10 billion-plus in AI revenue.
Broadcom (AVGO) also would be affected because it has a custom AI chip project with China's ByteDance, Rakesh said.
In morning trades on the stock market today, Nvidia stock fell as much as 3.1% before recovering. Nvidia stock ended the regular trading session up 3.9% to 124.81.
Broadcom stock climbed 0.8% to close at 199.45.
Microsoft Seeks To Loosen AI-Chip Export RestrictionsMeanwhile, software giant Microsoft (MSFT) has asked President Donald Trump to change U.S. policy that heavily restricts exports of artificial intelligence chips.
In a blog post Thursday, Brad Smith, Microsoft's vice chair and president, took aim at the Biden administration's last-minute final AI Diffusion Rule, which caps the export of U.S. AI components to "many fast-growing and strategically vital markets."
"As drafted, the rule undermines two Trump administration priorities: strengthening U.S. AI leadership and reducing the nation's near trillion-dollar trade deficit," Smith said. "Left unchanged, the Biden rule will give China a strategic advantage in spreading over time its own AI technology, echoing its rapid ascent in 5G telecommunications a decade ago."
The Biden rule change put many U.S. allies in a category that imposes quantitative limits on the ability of U.S. tech companies to build and expand AI data centers in their countries, Smith said. Those countries include India, Indonesia, Israel, Greece, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates.
"If left unchanged, the Diffusion Rule will become a gift to China's rapidly expanding AI sector," Smith said.
美国对中国半导体行业的限制正不断收紧。华尔街分析师周五表示，投资者应该为特朗普政府“可能对中国实施的重大新人工智能和出口许可限制”做好准备。这些任命可能会导致“所有 AI 芯片被全面禁止进入中国”。
这将影响目前获准在中国销售的英伟达 H20 和 B20。据报道，英伟达在2024年出货约100万块H20芯片，为公司带来超过120亿美元的收入。
2022年10月，美国实施出口管制，禁止英伟达A100和H100芯片在中国销售。随后，英伟达为中国市场推出性能降级版芯片A800和H800。2023年10月，美国进一步收紧管制，A800和H800也被禁止销售。
对此，英伟达再次调整产品策略，推出面向中国市场的降级版芯片H20、L20和L2。其中，H20基于Hopper架构，主要用于训练任务，而L20和L2基于Ada架构，更适用于推理任务。
如今，连H20也可能被美国封杀。
不仅如此，博通与字节跳动的AI芯片合作项目可能也已经暂停。
字节跳动正加速推进自主研发AI芯片战略，旨在降低对英伟达的依赖，提升技术自主性并优化成本。曾有多家媒体报道，字节计划在2025年投入超过120亿美元，用于AI基础设施的建设与升级。
此前，字节跳动曾被曝出与博通合作开发一种先进的人工智能芯片。这种5纳米芯片——一种被称为ASIC的定制产品——将符合美国的出口限制，生产工作将外包给台积电。字节跳动当时否认了相关报道的真实性。
自2022年华盛顿对尖端半导体实施出口控制以来，中国和美国公司之间还没有公开宣布涉及5纳米或更先进技术的芯片开发合作。中美在该领域的交易通常涉及的技术水平要低得多。
字节跳动与博通的合作将认为将有助于大幅降低采购成本，并确保高端芯片的稳定供应。字节跳动和博通自至少2022年以来一直是商业伙伴。字节已经购买了这家美国公司的Tomahawk 5纳米高性能交换芯片以及用于AI计算机集群的Bailly交换芯片。
与博通合作的中止说明美国对中国半导体行业的限制还在不断升级。
除了自研芯片之外，字节还希望利用东南亚的数据中心来使用英伟达的芯片。公司计划今年通过租赁协议等方式进行大规模订单，以增加其海外AI能力。
字节已经是马来西亚数据中心的重要客户，并在数日前宣布将投资88亿美元在泰国的数据中心。
自2023年起，美国芯片禁令对华升级了技术封锁，限制中国公司购买英伟达的高性能芯片。但是，如果中国公司通过租用海外数据中心的空间，特别是在马来西亚，依然能够合法获利用这些芯片，这些数据中心内的芯片属于第三方公司。
但美国的新规进一步升级了禁令。中国公司利用海外的计算中心这一通道预计将在今年5月被关闭。新规不仅禁止中国公司购买英伟达的高端芯片，还禁止它们访问这些技术。
美国工业与安全部曾表示：“如果你想在马来西亚建设一个拥有英伟达芯片的数据中心……你必须满足这些安全要求，其中包括不允许[一些国家]在这些数据集上训练大型语言模型。
why? 到目前37天了，trump对经济的帮助还没显示出来，他不能一直在做亏坏股市和经济的事情。最有可能的是，他要依此为谈判工具。
Trump必须在100内做出成绩来，否则以后更难做他要做的了
谁反对，肯定不是受益者。关税也是同理。
作为全球货币的先决条件是各国手里都有该货币，否则美元再好，你手里没有那怎么花？
而其他国家的美元是哪里来的？自然是和美国贸易的顺差里来的。
如果特朗普要和所有国家都取得贸易平衡，那就意味着大部分国家手里不会有多余的美元，而美元的国际地位也会被终结。
在美元之前，至少存在过两种全球性的储备货币，荷兰盾和英镑，而荷兰和英国在称霸的时间段里都是逆差，你不把钱通过逆差丢出去，别人怎么用你的货币？