三心,越王,能不能给大家说说你们最近十年最成功的一个交易和(事后看)最遗憾的一个交易?

任静锅-
楼主 (文学城)

我不爱喝鸡汤,喜欢干货:D

三心三意
How to define success and failure?
B
BrightLine
I gave you a failure on ARKK, LoL, bought in 2021 at 99.36,

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Unrealized Gain/LosssortUnrealized Gain/Loss
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12/09/2021 (Long Term) 500 $99.36 $49,679.30 $67.02 $33,510.00 -$16,169.30 -32.55%
12/28/2021 (Long Term) 100 $96.72 $9,672.00 $67.02 $6,702.00 -$2,970.00 -30.71%
12/28/2021 (Long Term) 400 $95.94 $38,375.96 $67.02 $26,808.00 -$11,567.96 -30.14%
12/29/2021 (Long Term) 500 $93.32 $46,659.91 $67.02 $33,510.00 -$13,149.91 -28.18%
01/04/2022 (Long Term) 500 $91.52 $45,760.28 $67.02 $33,510.00 -$12,250.28 -26.77%
01/05/2022 (Long Term) 200 $89.29 $17,857.00 $67.02 $13,404.00 -$4,453.00 -24.94%
01/05/2022 (Long Term) 300 $86.28 $25,884.00 $67.02 $20,106.00 -$5,778.00 -22.32%
01/06/2022 (Long Term) 300 $83.34 $25,002.75 $67.02 $20,106.00 -$4,896.75 -19.58%
01/10/2022 (Long Term) 200 $80.84 $16,167.98 $67.02 $13,404.00 -$2,763.98 -17.10%
01/13/2022 (Long Term) 500 $81.07 $40,534.95 $67.02 $33,510.00 -$7,024.95 -17.33%
02/10/2022 (Long Term) 500 $77.24 $38,617.50 $67.02 $33,510.00 -$5,107.50 -13.23%
11/21/2024 (Short Term) 1,000 $55.12 $55,122.70 $67.02 $67,020.00 +$11,897.30 +21.58%
12/03/2024 (Short Term) 2,000 $58.82 $117,647.47 $67.02 $134,040.00 +$16,392.53 +13.93%
12/31/2024 (Short Term) 1,000 $57.41 $57,405.00 $67.02 $67,020.00 +$9,615.00 +16.75%
12/31/2024 (Short Term) 2,000 $56.82 $113,640.00 $67.02 $134,040.00 +$20,400.00 +17.95%
01/10/2025 (Short Term) 1,000 $56.50 $56,499.89 $67.02 $67,020.00 +$10,520.11 +18.62%
Short-term total           +$68,824.94 --
Long-term total           -$86,131.63 --
Total           -$17,306.69 --
B
BrightLine
3 years and still lost money, LoL, a year ago was $30
T
Tianyazi
I sold with 50% off
这样子
谢谢亮线分享自己的记录,前面那些标记着longterm 是不是当时入手时候的目标?后来进的价格更低却是

short term,可不可以说说你怎么规划?

任静锅-
因为判断精准下重手赚了大钱的那笔交易
B
BrightLine
谈谈我购买 ARKK 的经历

我相信很多人和我一样,曾认为 Cathie Wood 是新一代的巴菲特,所以在 2021 年买入了这个基金。结果它像石头一样从 $150 暴跌下来,我在 $99 进场,以为已经到底了,然后不断逢低加仓,直到彻底失去希望。然而,现在随着很多股票疯狂上涨,我又加了一些仓位…… 现在终于接近盈亏平衡了。

所以我感觉现在又有点像 2021 年了…… 等 ARKK 涨到 $100 我就会卖掉。

三心三意
一两个交易很难说成功或失败,投资上最成功和失败

Most successful investment is Meta: Holding it a for long time (bought initial position around 20),  add aggressively during major pullbacks --- big 21-22 all-in VR pullback around 99,  2024 pullback around 480-520. Now the second largest holding in portfolio.

Tesla is my largest holding for now but I think there is some luck factor in it. Will need to wait for another 5 years to see if Tesla could become the most successful investment. Too early to call on this one.

Most unsuccesful investment is not the trading loss, but the inability to commit to AMZN. Have been looking at AMZN for a long long time, but for whatever reason, I was not able to pull the trigger. I think emotionally, i could not recover from the fact that i once owned AMZN back in 1999 and sold it wayyyyy too earlier. I think if I commit to AMZN, the return will be much much higher than MSFT which I decide to stay in for last 10 years.

三心三意
交易损失其实不会有很大,真正大的损失是没能commit那些龙头公司, 这种损失是几米甚至10米的错误
这样子
很感谢,你确实有胆识也有条件坚守这么久,但愿很快达到你的目标而完美转身,我在想哈

没有别的意思,仅仅是探讨,是不是在最初入手的时候可以设定止损价位?

B
BrightLine
Agreed... Should cut when it's 10% off

But it's an index... I thought it should come back.

越王剑
最成功的大概是NVDA,不过大家都知道不谈也罢

另一个是CYBR。 买CYBR也是因为我的一部分工作和网络安全也相关。每年都得通过政府认证。这个认证比较复杂,当时应用了CYBR的服务。因为比较熟悉,就买了CYBR。[https://blog.wenxuecity.com/blog/index.php?act=articleEditPage&date=201806&userId=732849&blogId=55169&postId=7078 ]

 

关键是这个股票没什么人讨论。电视上也没有。所以我也没有太关注。2015年-2018年之间只是时不时买一部分。网络安全永远不缺生意。AI时代更显重要。

最遗憾的是COST。 这个股我也是买的比较早,而且持有了数年。但是卖在了500多。当时就是觉得太贵了。一个零售商到了那个valuation应该是极限鸟。哎。还是不太懂它是如何运转。隔行如隔山。

经验就是还是要投资自己熟悉的领域。不熟悉的领域容易被人忽悠。我个人干IT。多数时候都是投资科技股。主要是因为比较熟悉。你让我去投资能源股就不灵。因为不熟悉。不熟悉就没信仰。

T
Tianyazi
她是昙花一现!
b
bogbog
确实是这样
B
BrightLine
Now her ARKK might go up due to AI
越王剑
再拿十年也许就大发了

三年时间还是太短。

三心三意
越王不投cost是因为行业,我在这个行业还是没投亚麻。有时自己的emotion就是最大的敌人
B
BrightLine
Agreed. I did not invest PLTR because they demoed to me.

and I was not impressed at the time.

螺丝螺帽
共10000股, 目前市价 67.02, 所以, 投入资金67万, 亏就那么一点点, 可以抹掉的
螺丝螺帽
你还很有信心的, 是我, 现在就出手了
N
NCNE
我的猜测… -:)

十年最成功的一个交易: 娶了个媳妇 最遗憾的一个交易: 离了次婚

哈哈, 搞笑逗乐!别当真.

螺丝螺帽
是不是”文人相轻“同理?
螺丝螺帽
哈哈哈哈!
B
BrightLine
Ai现在正红,哈哈,看看再说,到80应该没问题,再往上就得看看啦
t
tutututu
我最成功的投资NVDA, META, PLTR

长期投资NVDA因为我2016年受到alphaGo的启发,感觉到人工智能时代将要来临,而且我懂这一行。但绝大部分专业造诣比我更深的“大牛”都错过了了,每次和他们推荐NVDA,他们都有一种文人相轻的ego

我从META上市以来一直断断续续在投资,应该赚了不少钱。最近一次是在2022 年10月大跌时不到100买的,持有到现在。我长期投资META的理由是看好小扎这个CEO,我喜欢投资年轻的CEO+Founder公司

投资PLTR是因为youtuber 的推荐,去年20+ 的时候不约而同几个我喜欢的youtuber都在推荐PLTR。后来看所处的AI赛道和founder+CEO组合很不错,就投了。 

B
BrightLine
犯的错误有:

1,盲目相信木头姐

2,在趋势向下时,高点进股票

3,盲目加仓没有止损

t
tutututu
我最失败的投资是TSLA
螺丝螺帽
"盲目加仓没有止损", 我在 TDOC, PTON犯同样错误
螺丝螺帽
看来, 你看中一个单股, 就是大底盘的压上的
b
blueskyyy
感谢分享
c
cfbingbuzy001
TESLA IS ERRATIC. You didnot lose anything. 所谓机会成本是马后炮,永远有更好

小三。