This is an example of what a valid thesis looks like:
Blackwell is the best product launch and will generate $200BN+ in revenues in '25 (v.s Street at $170BN) Scaling laws will hold post '25, driving performance by x percentage on a 1-year cadence.
Key is that the thesis is specific enough to track if it's playing out.
This is an example of what is NOT a valid thesis for NVDA
Nvidia is a great company AI is the future and Nvidia is a winner Jensen is awesome
我觉得这个X的post非常接近我认同的投资理念。虽然我们很难做到他说的10点，但培养这样的approach对投资会有极大的帮助。
他用了NVDA做例子，来解释如何build FA assumption，又如何去验证。
This is an example of what a valid thesis looks like:
Blackwell is the best product launch and will generate $200BN+ in revenues in '25 (v.s Street at $170BN) Scaling laws will hold post '25, driving performance by x percentage on a 1-year cadence.Key is that the thesis is specific enough to track if it's playing out.
This is an example of what is NOT a valid thesis for NVDA
Nvidia is a great company AI is the future and Nvidia is a winner Jensen is awesome原文在下。
https://x.com/IvanaSpear/status/1858910469219905969
不然，交税都交死