EV only number there is not for investment, but serves as an absolute baseline, for the scenario if market crash, you want to buy "aggressively" if you see TSLA at 160.
For me, investment theory is based on "RoboTaxi included" scenario. For people who do not believe TSLA can realize RoboTaxi, they should not buy TSLA stock
As investors, we can focus on key metrics that TSLA delivers and make adjustment to our model
For now, I think the EV model is well understood, so, we just need to monitor is growth rate and magrin percentage --- with their Model Y refresh and low cost model coming next year, I am relatively confortable about EV estimate
For RoboTaxi, we finally have some info from Tsla regardling timeline. So, I would watch closely if they can indeed roll-out in CA and Texas in limited availability in 2025. If they can do this, I am confident about my estimate of $12B revenue by 2029 (only 1/10th of Uber+Lyft biz)
Once we have more data from Tesla on Optimus, we can adjust its earning model (and hopefully it is much higher, lol)
See the column where it says "Energe as % of Gross profit". Basically, this model assume Tesla continue to grow its energe business and its contribution to the operating income keeps going higher
Waymo 2024 revenue is less than $100M but cost is in the billions. The hardwrae cost for autonomus driving in a single Waymo car is estimated to be $150k to $200K. Even if they can lower the hardware cost, the operation cost is also high (for high-def map).
Tesla FSD already has $300M revenue in Q3. Once Tesla break through on its technology, the earning multiple can grow exponetially.
Of course, there is always a risk that Tesla can never solve the technology challenge. But if Elon can call back a flying rocket to its launch base, I am going to bet along with Elon rather than Sundar Pitchai.
It is like would you bet along with Steve jobs or Steve Ballmer in 2005?
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/6534359.html
EV only number there is not for investment, but serves as an absolute baseline, for the scenario if market crash, you want to buy "aggressively" if you see TSLA at 160.
For me, investment theory is based on "RoboTaxi included" scenario. For people who do not believe TSLA can realize RoboTaxi, they should not buy TSLA stock
As investors, we can focus on key metrics that TSLA delivers and make adjustment to our model
For now, I think the EV model is well understood, so, we just need to monitor is growth rate and magrin percentage --- with their Model Y refresh and low cost model coming next year, I am relatively confortable about EV estimate
For RoboTaxi, we finally have some info from Tsla regardling timeline. So, I would watch closely if they can indeed roll-out in CA and Texas in limited availability in 2025. If they can do this, I am confident about my estimate of $12B revenue by 2029 (only 1/10th of Uber+Lyft biz)
Once we have more data from Tesla on Optimus, we can adjust its earning model (and hopefully it is much higher, lol)
See the column where it says "Energe as % of Gross profit". Basically, this model assume Tesla continue to grow its energe business and its contribution to the operating income keeps going higher
Waymo 2024 revenue is less than $100M but cost is in the billions. The hardwrae cost for autonomus driving in a single Waymo car is estimated to be $150k to $200K. Even if they can lower the hardware cost, the operation cost is also high (for high-def map).
Tesla FSD already has $300M revenue in Q3. Once Tesla break through on its technology, the earning multiple can grow exponetially.
Of course, there is always a risk that Tesla can never solve the technology challenge. But if Elon can call back a flying rocket to its launch base, I am going to bet along with Elon rather than Sundar Pitchai.
It is like would you bet along with Steve jobs or Steve Ballmer in 2005?
Google, META, MSFT.
一位G家insider说砍一半都没问题。也没有很多fixed asset, supply chain issues. 一裁员PEG马上下来。
TSLA如果需要提高产能，不得不投资大量fixed assets。 廋身时，不得不write off.
Geopolitical 的情况或者啥黑天鹅事件出来，整个股票的走向会跟预测的完全不一样。