Here, I dont want to debate Waymo vs Tesla as I have found you cant chage people's view once that view is formed. I used to lead sales in a SP500 company, for me, I just can't see how Waymo can scale its solution at global scale without incurring huge cost (Waymo revenue is $50M at the cost of $B in 2024, while Telsa FSD revenue is already $350M this quarter). But as I said, the debate on this is pretty pointless as no one can convince the other camp. Not to mention in Robotics field, no single company has the potential to compete with Optimus at this time. Maybe we will see a new company, but right now, I have not seen one
The biggest risk for Tesla has always been the timing. Up until the most recent earning report, people (including myself) have been worrying about Tesla's margin, EV sales, and timeline of robotaxi in such a way that it may take until 2028 or beyond to improve any of these. For investors, that is a long time to park your money before you see reward
But the most recent business update has fundamentally changed some of these prior assumptions. On the margin front, Tesla has improved margin dramatically this Q and forecast further improvement for next quarter. It also projects 20%-30% increase in EV sales, plus low cost model availability in H1 2025, this addressed many of investor's concern about Tesla's near term performance.
Finally, they have provided a more concrete RoboTaxi rollout timeline with limited availability in 2026
Of course, there is always a risk that they fail to execute on these promises. I think we will just have to monitor it closely and adjust our portfolio accordingly. At this time, the momentum is very very strong.
Last but not least, I just trust Elon Musk. I think he is a visionary of our time and I want to invest in what he is doing
下周大选分晓。我投给Amazon。
特斯拉主要业务是汽车。电动车技术在特斯拉开放专利和投资上海，把产业链培育起来后，国产电动车厂商快速崛起。价格战打开后，特斯拉的毛利率快速下降。当然它的自动驾驶技术还是比国内那些厂商好。但是目前完全自动技术还是不成熟，大家都是L2、L3，都是辅助驾驶而已，看不出它太多优势啊。国内那些企业也有一些基本的辅助驾驶技术。完全自动的驾驶，谷歌的Wymo 早在街上跑了。当然，大家买特斯拉的话，估计还是主要冲着它的完全自动驾驶技术去的。X-AI进步很快，但是不属于特斯拉。所以我对它的估值一直看不明白。
Here, I dont want to debate Waymo vs Tesla as I have found you cant chage people's view once that view is formed. I used to lead sales in a SP500 company, for me, I just can't see how Waymo can scale its solution at global scale without incurring huge cost (Waymo revenue is $50M at the cost of $B in 2024, while Telsa FSD revenue is already $350M this quarter). But as I said, the debate on this is pretty pointless as no one can convince the other camp. Not to mention in Robotics field, no single company has the potential to compete with Optimus at this time. Maybe we will see a new company, but right now, I have not seen one
The biggest risk for Tesla has always been the timing. Up until the most recent earning report, people (including myself) have been worrying about Tesla's margin, EV sales, and timeline of robotaxi in such a way that it may take until 2028 or beyond to improve any of these. For investors, that is a long time to park your money before you see reward
But the most recent business update has fundamentally changed some of these prior assumptions. On the margin front, Tesla has improved margin dramatically this Q and forecast further improvement for next quarter. It also projects 20%-30% increase in EV sales, plus low cost model availability in H1 2025, this addressed many of investor's concern about Tesla's near term performance.
Finally, they have provided a more concrete RoboTaxi rollout timeline with limited availability in 2026
Of course, there is always a risk that they fail to execute on these promises. I think we will just have to monitor it closely and adjust our portfolio accordingly. At this time, the momentum is very very strong.
Last but not least, I just trust Elon Musk. I think he is a visionary of our time and I want to invest in what he is doing
特斯拉的技术路径成功了，Waymo就是无路可走了。
Waymo存在依赖高精地图，高价硬件，以及缺乏量产能力三个大的障碍上。
高清地图注定它只能在少数几个城市逐步推广，而且成本巨大。即使在最早投入的奥斯汀，它还没有cover整个城市。
高价硬件在量产后会降价，问题Waymo没有自己的生产和技术，lidar厂家不多也没有别的应用场景，价格很难剧烈下降。
汽车生产的问题更大，把Lidar及其他硬件软件装倒一辆成车上，效率极低。为什么汽车能够只卖几万美元，流水线和批量化是关键，Waymo在这方面完全没有开始。特斯拉花了好几年才解决产能问题。Waymo要重复做一遍，至少2年。现在普遍估计Waymo每辆车成本是13万到15万。可能还不包括厂房设备等的资本投入。