The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee—the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
有人说2000-2003年股市下跌原因是经济衰退，但美联储GDP数据没有出现连续两季度GDP下降（见表）。笔者认为下降原因是股市泡沫达到了极限，接盘侠开始出现短缺。买股票的人少了，股价自然会下行。因为没有经济衰退，股市下行速度很慢，但持续时间很长。
经济衰退是股市下跌的充分条件，但不是必要条件。
2000-2006六年房价猛涨，丢了工作的人去当地产经纪。这就是国人有很多地产经纪的原因。
然后一哄而上，造成了次贷危机。
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-gross-domestic-product
啊哈哈哈。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee—the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth indicate a recession.