office owners and retail space owners. So far we haven't seen big big bankrupcies, because the banks do not want to go through the bankruptcy process, lenghty, costly but not necessarily good for the banks.
The banks hold on into defaulted commercial loans, in hopes that the circumstances of the creditors would improve.
however, who knows? Residential properties can recover because of the shortage of the housing units across the country, but there is no shortage of commercial.
中间有可能被美国大选给拦腰斩断，也可能巨幅波动。
几个题材，在这种情况下涨得会多。
1. Bitcoin/Gold。这两样东西因为供应有上限，除了当Alt Asset，别的用场不大。bitcoin是流动性最好的晴雨表。Gold主要看Real Interest Rate，越少，涨得越多。
2. 股市普涨， 科技股可能相对有点Mute，半导体会分化。这一次大选不出幺蛾子的话，也许会涨到让人目瞪口呆。
3。债卷不会如何好。 通胀是结构性的， 第一是人口偏老；第二是劳动人民要价高，第三是医疗教育法律这些第三产业是对产能建设是非常大的阻力，美国基本不可能再工业化，通胀也会长期存在， FED Fund能降到3%都不容易。
4. 房租不会大跌， 房价也不会大涨。
5. 海外资产会随着美元的贬值而具备吸引力。
6. 中美的第二回合较量会在2027年见分晓。
还有一个还有2年多时间随时能refi，就想固定在5.5左右就行。
economy. Commercial real estate is the bulkpart of that economy. Owners earn cash flow, desiring lower and lower financing cost to enhance cash.
I am not sure the banks would like to meet the demand of this economy, given the deterioration of the commercial real estate in the past few years.
房价涨不上去嘛也好。
https://www.statista.com/statistics/275190/ten-year-treasury-constant-maturity-rate-in-the-united-states-as-of-2009/
office owners and retail space owners. So far we haven't seen big big bankrupcies, because the banks do not want to go through the bankruptcy process, lenghty, costly but not necessarily good for the banks.
The banks hold on into defaulted commercial loans, in hopes that the circumstances of the creditors would improve.
however, who knows? Residential properties can recover because of the shortage of the housing units across the country, but there is no shortage of commercial.
没有经济衰退， 通货膨胀根本下不来。 除非美联储企图政治化，根本就不应该考虑降息。
长远来说， 4-5% 左右的利息应该是常态。 前几年的几乎零利息把你惯坏了。