I do both residential and commercial. I went through the cycles of ups and downs for past many many years. Nothing is absolute easy; but NNN is the good asset for part of real estate portfolio. Compared to the residential, it is much easy to manage. For 1031 exchange, it is a good choice.
Of course, you have to buy good location NNN assets. When vacant, there are the new-tenants lined up. Do not flip NNN asset, buying it with the goal to keep forever-pass down to generations.
3N+Single商户的商房三大风险困局:1)如果商户提前告知不再续约,你将如何自度危机?2)你能否在长期的空置期中“幸存”下来?3) 你将如何应对银行的loan renewal困局?
无论当下的商户生意有多好,cap rate有多么美丽,business report有多么美好,或者打鸡血说旱涝保收N年。按照木桶理论:最短的短板决定终极的水量。
我建议想做3N+Single tenant商房的地主,如果你要贷款,不妨和你的商贷VP聊一聊,他们的客户中有多少这样类型的借贷者,他们的商户是什么类型,行业,历史记录(尤其在疫情中的表现),从侧面了解投房这个类型的安全性。
我们这里无论大小box,一旦空置,1-3年的空置期并不少见。这也就意味着,你是否做好充足的准备,一旦空置,你的reserved money是否能支撑过所有的开支?当然,如果空房挂售,那一定又是十分肉痛并且可能要脱几层皮的折磨。因为你会发现空房只能卖给owner use买家,这个受众圈又极小,空房需外租的投资客不太可能拿到商贷。商贷银行连现金流打平都会拒贷,何况是0收入?!
如果你侥幸活下来了,但是如果正好面临商贷重设的5年期的dealine,那么你的loan renewal就会变成一个巨大的难题,因为99%是续贷不了,除非你能拿其他有租约有足够增值部分的房产做抵押来救助这套房产,但是银行还是要看你整个portfolio map,还要个人担保才能决定可行与否。
银行其实最喜欢做商业贷款的是OWNER USE(至少有2年的business history)的商房,因为这是landlord+business owner 2 in 1,对于银行而言这是双保险,这远比只作为地主一层的保险要安全得多。毕竟不必担心商户跑了空置问题。另外,千万不要想当然,以为commercial loan renewal or cashout Refi是很容易的事情,只要LTV达标,闭着眼睛就能顺利通关。你不妨和商贷VP一起吃个饭,多聊聊那些被他们狠拒的CASE,一定会让你大开眼界。因为银行的商贷大多是自持,不转卖,所以贷款的安全性是第一位的,它远比赚钱性要重要得多。
我的思考中有一个“一票否决制”的原则,其中很清醒的一个要点:任何投房类型,EXIT的问题,如果评估预测会十分艰难困苦,那么一定不会躬身入局。各位可以看看拍卖网上,现在除了第一位的办公楼暴雷最多之外,其次是宾馆,排第三的是什么投房类型吧。
老地主说,如果没有经历过两轮的经济危机的地主是不足以成熟到位的,当然经历过两轮也不意味着已经练成金刚不坏之身。经济危机是大势行情垮塌,但是比大势更恐怖的是行业垮塌。前者是大病一场,只需调养生息,但不足以致命。后者却是要被推进ICU急救,抢救不回来的概率是十有八九。
投房:安全第一,赚钱第二!
I do both residential and commercial. I went through the cycles of ups and downs for past many many years. Nothing is absolute easy; but NNN is the good asset for part of real estate portfolio. Compared to the residential, it is much easy to manage. For 1031 exchange, it is a good choice.
Of course, you have to buy good location NNN assets. When vacant, there are the new-tenants lined up. Do not flip NNN asset, buying it with the goal to keep forever-pass down to generations.
to other NNN and to residential
timing and location are the two important factors
if you know how to deal with your worst scenario, you will be fine\
but I agree with
buying it with the goal to keep forever-pass down to generations.
and that's why it is hard to get good NNN properties
Most of the properties I flipped were residentials. Now, I only buy properites to keep forever.
buy and hold the good boring life
buy and hold the good boring property with boring life!