挑一个话题: 滞涨

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inet-fan
楼主 (文学城)

Where Should You Invest During Stagflation?
Real estate investments tend to have a low correlation to stocks, and housing is still needed during a slowdown. Rental prices usually keep pace with inflation, even with a depreciating dollar.

 

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Certainly! In the 1970s and early 1980s, the world experienced a period of high inflation, particularly in the United States. This period, often referred to as "stagflation," was characterized by stagnant economic growth coupled with high inflation rates.

During this time, real estate prices saw significant fluctuations. Initially, real estate prices rose along with inflation as investors sought tangible assets to hedge against the declining value of money. Additionally, easy access to credit contributed to the growth of the real estate market.

However, as inflation continued to rise and interest rates soared, the real estate market began to experience challenges. Higher interest rates made borrowing more expensive, reducing affordability for homebuyers and slowing down demand. Additionally, the high inflation environment eroded the purchasing power of individuals, making it difficult for many to afford homes.

As a result, the real estate market saw a downturn in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Prices stagnated or declined in many areas as high inflation and interest rates put pressure on both buyers and sellers. The volatility in real estate prices mirrored the broader economic challenges of the period, with many homeowners facing difficulties in selling their properties or making mortgage payments.

 

Certainly! In the 1970s and early 1980s, the world experienced a period of high inflation, particularly in the United States. This period, often referred to as "stagflation," was characterized by stagnant economic growth coupled with high inflation rates.

During this time, real estate prices saw significant fluctuations. Initially, real estate prices rose along with inflation as investors sought tangible assets to hedge against the declining value of money. Additionally, easy access to credit contributed to the growth of the real estate market.

However, as inflation continued to rise and interest rates soared, the real estate market began to experience challenges. Higher interest rates made borrowing more expensive, reducing affordability for homebuyers and slowing down demand. Additionally, the high inflation environment eroded the purchasing power of individuals, making it difficult for many to afford homes.

As a result, the real estate market saw a downturn in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Prices stagnated or declined in many areas as high inflation and interest rates put pressure on both buyers and sellers. The volatility in real estate prices mirrored the broader economic challenges of the period, with many homeowners facing difficulties in selling their properties or making mortgage payments.

 

There may be some similarities between the late 1980s real estate downturn and certain aspects of today's situation, but there are also significant differences.

Similarities:

Interest Rates: Like in the late 1980s, interest rates have been historically low in recent years. However, there's currently no indication of the sharp increase in interest rates seen during that period.
Speculative Activity: In some markets, speculative activity and rapid price appreciation have been observed, reminiscent of the speculative behavior seen in the late 1980s. However, the extent and impact of speculation may vary.
Economic Uncertainty: Both periods have seen economic uncertainty, although the causes and contexts differ. In the late 1980s, it was the aftermath of the Savings and Loan Crisis and a recession. Today, it's largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic repercussions.
Differences:

Causes: The causes of the current economic situation, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on the economy, are fundamentally different from those of the late 1980s.
Policy Response: Central banks and governments have implemented various policies to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic, such as stimulus packages and monetary easing, which have influenced the real estate market differently than the policies in place during the late 1980s.
Market Dynamics: The dynamics of today's real estate market, including factors such as technology, demographics, and global interconnectedness, are different from those of the late 1980s.
While there may be some parallels, it's essential to recognize the unique characteristics of each period and avoid drawing direct comparisons without considering the broader economic and social context.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/1970-stagflation.asp#:~:text=How%20Did%20the%20Stagflation%20Affect,inflation%2C%20which%20eroded%20purchasing%20power 

a
alpha123
猜现在房价在山顶上,以后一两年会比较平稳甚至跌一些。
r
red_flower
比较平稳,那就是基本就在山顶那一片有点小波动而已了
守月
鲍威尔亲口说出,工资增长不是坏事时,我的理解就是担心滞胀的时期到了。

4年前,得的是大怪病,治疗方法也只能是左右冲突,以毒攻毒再换毒。

好在,美国体质还是不错,有救。

滞胀时期地主要受的痛苦比较大,具体地说也就是地税保险和维修成本的上涨高于房租上涨,伴随收租的困难度加大。

这阶段已经过了一段时期,部分地主感觉到其痛苦,未来有可能广度和深度更多一些罢了。

一切都终将会走过去,之后的路又会好走。

守月
懂经济的人跑得差不多了。看闲来无事事和圭妈有否时间和兴趣写写。对经济和时态理解能力强的,大概只有JY还在。
I
IEbird
GDP下跌过快通胀略有抬头。如进入衰退大佬如chase CEO忧虑但对软着路同样有信心。房主股民有余粮无房无股日子艰难。
I
IEbird
JY名言赌国运俺理解他是看多国运的。
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inet-fan
现在是大家抢asset的时候, 应该平稳和涨, 如果通货膨胀5年
i
inet-fan
硅谷高价房看股票, 低价房看通货膨胀和工作,莫区房子开始跟上,100万了
古来万事
深深感受到了你说的地税保险的暴涨。
i
inet-fan
平时都在微信上面了