and the cycle is still on-going. If we start counting from 2008 GFC, we are at the end of easing cycle and the 2nd half of the same cycle just got started. I say it will take another 10 yrs to see the full impact of massive Fed balance sheet unwinding as well as the impact of massive increase in Federal debt level.
Yet for many investors, the 1/2 cycle which lasted 15 yrs were the ENTIRE life span for stock market investment. human beings are known to project personal immediate past experience into distant future. and human beings also tend to attribute personal sucess to personal skills, and personal failure to bad luck. For equity investment, luck, good or bad, is frequently far more likely than skills in determing the outcome
entry point determines a big part of your investment outcome. it is easy to use 10-, 20- or even 50-yr avg return for projection.
1 first simple mean return is subject to "volatility drag". for the minimum use LONG term CAGR; (data from yahoo finance historical price)
2 can one sit tight thru 2000-2002? if you held thru it, you only lost 80%. So congrats! You still have 20% Left and it took more than a decade to recover the loss from 2000 high. If you BTDF, you would have been entirely wiped out and would NOT participate in the bounce and recovery. it is one thing to talk about what you will do. it is entirely a differnt thing to sit through an 80% DD. 20% is the max I can sit without questioning my investment thesis and even my personal merits.
3 equity mkt, tech in particular, is MORE expensive today in terms of valution multiples even tho the index is below ATH. why? riskfree rate much higher. So stocks are NOT cheaper. It is more expensive. To expect past return, you need another 15-year QE and massive fiscal deficit spending. The Q is can we afford it?
Hindsight is 20/20. So the million dollar Q finally: does this look like i bottom; ii peak; iii decent pricing in your eyes?
and the cycle is still on-going. If we start counting from 2008 GFC, we are at the end of easing cycle and the 2nd half of the same cycle just got started. I say it will take another 10 yrs to see the full impact of massive Fed balance sheet unwinding as well as the impact of massive increase in Federal debt level.
Yet for many investors, the 1/2 cycle which lasted 15 yrs were the ENTIRE life span for stock market investment. human beings are known to project personal immediate past experience into distant future. and human beings also tend to attribute personal sucess to personal skills, and personal failure to bad luck. For equity investment, luck, good or bad, is frequently far more likely than skills in determing the outcome
entry point determines a big part of your investment outcome. it is easy to use 10-, 20- or even 50-yr avg return for projection.
1 first simple mean return is subject to "volatility drag". for the minimum use LONG term CAGR; (data from yahoo finance historical price)
2 can one sit tight thru 2000-2002? if you held thru it, you only lost 80%. So congrats! You still have 20% Left and it took more than a decade to recover the loss from 2000 high. If you BTDF, you would have been entirely wiped out and would NOT participate in the bounce and recovery. it is one thing to talk about what you will do. it is entirely a differnt thing to sit through an 80% DD. 20% is the max I can sit without questioning my investment thesis and even my personal merits.
3 equity mkt, tech in particular, is MORE expensive today in terms of valution multiples even tho the index is below ATH. why? riskfree rate much higher. So stocks are NOT cheaper. It is more expensive. To expect past return, you need another 15-year QE and massive fiscal deficit spending. The Q is can we afford it?
Hindsight is 20/20. So the million dollar Q finally: does this look like i bottom; ii peak; iii decent pricing in your eyes?
这20年来，只要顶住了几次腰斩，没退场，并坚持定投，其实自己现在回头看看都相当不错。当然居士特别坚持，力度也大，成绩更亮眼也是自然。
我们老留都到了中年或者即将跨入老年，现在想想如何把自己辛苦工作和投资攒下的资产合理利用，达到养老优质化和家庭利益最大化，是很有必要的。从这个层面说，大家的分享，不论投资房产还是股票还是其他，不论是成绩还是经验还是教训，都很有意义。
他现在的11m是可信的。是往后的projection非常不可能。他不知道他到目前正好经历了美国投资史上最好的20年。
比较reasonable. 15%过高。
前十几年， 没动过， 最近调整了一下
都说fed要降息. 下个boom cycle 开始了？
Single digit, 没法退休啊.
self attribution bias
还要多久我们才能再到sideway. sideway 会有多久？20上半世纪，sideway 会有二十年左右，上升期会比下半世纪短的多。