我现在认为，有危机的当然是办公楼，我认为 another 60-70%off from current market pricing is very possible, in certain areas.
Mall and office are in the same boat, small local retail spaces will continue to suffer but not so bad.
Warehouse will cool down substantially.
But I’m thinking self storages may continue to strike, possible to new high, the reason been, as housing price continue to rise and shortage continues, will force more and more people to share housing spaces, and they will need to rent storage spaces to store their own personal items and may even use the storage as some sort of living space during day hours.
We currently only got one self storage complex, it's been third party managed since we bought it, and last 5 years it been generating 30% cash on cash return.
I'm considering to expand our portfolio to hold more self storage complexes.
家里有点闲钱，一直不能决定是直接买投资房还是REITs股票。想来征求大家的意见，达到抛砖引玉的结果。
事情的起因是我从 SeekingAlpha 上看到的文章引起：
Why I Quit Buying Rental Properties To Buy REITs Instead
Feb. 25, 2023 9:00 AM ET | O, VNQ, AVB |
Jussi Askola
https://seekingalpha.com/author/jussi-askola
https://www.youtube.com/@askjussi
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4581350-why-i-quit-buying-rental-properties-to-buy-reits-instead https://seekingalpha.com/article/4587721-why-i-quit-buying-rental-properties-to-buy-reits-instead-part-2 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595560-why-i-stopped-buying-rental-properties-to-buy-reits-insteadWhy I Stopped Buying REITs To Buy Rental Properties Instead
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4603662-why-i-stopped-buying-reits-to-buy-rental-properties-instead
Why I Stopped Buying Treasuries To Buy REITs Instead
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606093-why-i-stopped-buying-treasuries-to-buy-reits-instead
想想可不可以抄底商业地产，其中一个比较快捷的方式是不是商业地产的REIT？
我现在认为，有危机的当然是办公楼，我认为 another 60-70%off from current market pricing is very possible, in certain areas.
Mall and office are in the same boat, small local retail spaces will continue to suffer but not so bad.
Warehouse will cool down substantially.
But I’m thinking self storages may continue to strike, possible to new high, the reason been, as housing price continue to rise and shortage continues, will force more and more people to share housing spaces, and they will need to rent storage spaces to store their own personal items and may even use the storage as some sort of living space during day hours.
We currently only got one self storage complex, it's been third party managed since we bought it, and last 5 years it been generating 30% cash on cash return.
I'm considering to expand our portfolio to hold more self storage complexes.
还无限省心，收入比投资房更稳定，容易扩大，几乎不受限制，多买股就行，但与房价会涨的地区比，比如与加州比， REIT的compound收入还是差很多，因为加州的房价会上涨，虽然买进时经常是付现金流，但几年后因为租金涨得快，房产税又被cap住（成本大头不随房价上升而同步上升），现金流从付到正往往很快，再叠加房价上涨，十年后的受益大大超过REIT的利滚利分红收入，计算时别忘了杠杆在房价涨时的巨大作用。
所以，在加州，买REIT不做地主，有点不划算，虽然省心风险低，但REIT的股票往往不太涨，十年二十年后的收入，是比不上地主资产积累快。但若在靠现金流为主的地区，我倒觉得应该是长期买REIT比当地主强，少了很多麻烦，人生不仅快乐很多，自由时间也多出来，人生图个啥？
当然，若是当大地主，按照商业模式，另当别论。
而目前加息已经进入尾声。
难道加息过程中，所有local房地产不掉价吗？
Mortgage REITs (mREITs) AGNC, NLY。
它们股价在涨息过程中痛苦无比。
以上文章储存在
优缺点对比中
To Be Continued......
所以才在此论坛讨论投资房分散风险，REITs相当于职业运营的大型投资房公司。住房大多数情况下是刚需。