US-China relations Biden should summon the courage to reverse course on China Donald Trump’s hardline policies served only to strengthen Xi Jinping and the communist system
The writer, a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore, is author of ‘Has China Won?’
In Alaska last month Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, gave a public dressing down on democracy and human rights to Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy officials. They did so in the confident belief that the US knows how to triumph slowly and patiently over a communist adversary.
Yet even though the US won the cold war, China may understand better why Soviet communism failed. It is determined not to make the same mistakes.
China’s analysis would match that of George Kennan, the US master strategist. Kennan wisely predicted that the cold war would be determined by Washington’s ability “to create among the peoples of the world generally the impression of a country which knows what it wants, which is coping successfully with the problem of its internal life and with the responsibilities of a world power”. Here’s the shocking comparison. Vis-à-vis the Soviet Union, the US was ahead on all three counts. Vis-à-vis China, it is not.
The first indicator of the Soviet collapse came from negative trends in indicators of social wellbeing: life expectancy, infant mortality, suicides, opioid (or alcohol) addiction. Today it’s the US that is doing badly. In contrast to other developed societies, US life expectancy is declining. The educational standards of US teenagers lag behind those of many advanced industrial countries.
If Kennan were alive today, he would be shocked to see the US spending $5tn on unnecessary wars, while the bottom 50 per cent of Americans have seen their incomes stagnate for decades. There is a “sea of despair” among white working classes.
China is doing the opposite of the former Soviet Union. China believes the Soviet leaders failed because they lost touch with their own people, ignoring their welfare while engaged in foreign wars. China hasn’t fought a major war in 40 years. Unlike the Soviet Union, it controls military expenditures.
No country has improved its people’s wellbeing as much as China. In terms of human development, the past 40 years have been the best four decades in 4,000 years of Chinese history.
China still faces many internal problems. Success is not guaranteed. Yet against the backdrop of a century or more of humiliation and suffering, the lives of the Chinese people have never been better. Hence, the US cold war strategy will not work.
The Biden administration is making a strategic mistake in carrying on with Donald Trump’s policies towards China. Curiously, Biden himself declared in 2019 that Trump’s trade war had failed to help US workers. The data backs Biden’s assessment. In 2009, the size of China’s retail goods market was $1.4tn, compared with $4tn for the US. By 2019, after three years of Trump’s trade war, China’s market was approaching $6tn, bigger than that of the US at $5.5tn.
Even if Biden’s administration wished to change course on China, it is constrained by a rising anti-Chinese mood in the US body politic. Unwise steps taken under Trump remain in place: the closure of China’s consulate in Houston, restrictions on Chinese journalists, ending the Peace Corps and Fulbright Scholarship programmes in China.
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Are the US and China entering a Cold War?
Biden administration officials are clearly afraid to be seen as “soft” on China. However, if they wanted, they could construct a strong case for reversing Trump’s policies. They could point to the reality that the Trump administration actually strengthened China and Xi Jinping, its president. How?
The Chinese people can see that their government has protected them well in the Covid-19 emergency. Meanwhile, the Trump administration floundered, resulting in the deaths of more than half a million Americans. When US vice-president Mike Pence and secretary of state Mike Pompeo hurled insults at China, they only strengthened the standing of the Chinese government. Similarly, most Chinese thought that their policymakers won the public argument in Alaska. So too, did many other Asians.
All this points to a wiser course available to the Biden administration. It should declare, as Biden did earlier, that Trump was wrong on China. It should then press the pause button on the US-Chinese geopolitical contest, while assessing whether Washington can formulate a better strategy against such a formidable competitor.
Ending the trade war with China would boost economic growth in the US, helping Biden in the 2022 midterm elections. And most of the world would cheer if the Biden administration pressed the pause button, especially while Covid-19 is still raging.
Letter in response to this article:
Appeasement is the wrong approach on China / From Patrick Perry, Letterkenny, County Donegal, Ireland
Copyright The Financial Times Limited . All rights reserved. Please don't copy articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
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The 2015 Albert H. Gordon Lecture by: Kishore Mahbubani Dean and Professor in the Practice of Public Policy , Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
If China walks away from US economy, it will be a disaster
And they truly can, now. They have the largest ongoing infrastructure market. It will take all kinds of investments from the world by just a piece of paper called "government gurrantee" - the best no-cost future return promises to the investors. And it worked productively in Deng's time. Look at Beijing's new airport - Can US or Japan or UK builds one in 10 years? What would happen over there in 10 years from now? There are only three options to this aggressive competitor and co-operator:
(1) Close eyes and let it be. US has lost 2 decades by doing that.
(2) Try to stop or destroy it as Trump's administration dreamed. How? What the cost of Afganistan war so far?
(3) Get into it and be part of it. A pan Sino-US joint economy and infrastructure market? May be pan Indi-Sino-US economy?
I see No.3 is the end game, but No. 2 is now the dominated approach in DC. That's very dangerous to the rest of the world.
1.从标题看“辽宁号秀肌肉变出洋相”然后“退休将领被追究责任”。一箭双雕既造”成出洋相“事实也造成因果关系
2. 先看”退休将领被追究责任的时间“-4月8日：
文章说“辽宁号的关键人物，海军副参谋长宋学退休两年后，4月8日被终止人大代表资格，又被追究刑事责任。本台采访了当年与宋学当年的好友姚诚。”
3. 再看文章试图证明“辽宁号秀肌肉变出洋相”
“花费那么多钱，用了那么长的时间，搞了两条不能打仗的航母。主要是这次‘辽宁号’航母编队从北方往南航行的时候，被美、日军舰冲得七零八落，这在国际上丢人了。再有习近平对海军装备一直不满意。“
但是所谓美舰插队根据的是4月26日实时卫星照片。时间上在4月8日之后。这就是“ 辽宁号秀肌肉变出洋相 退休将领被追究责任”的逻辑错误。
https://mil.huanqiu.com/article/42tNTvyS8a0?
下面是头条上辽宁号这次训练的消息
https://www.toutiao.com/a6956092398594392612/?channel=&source=search_tab
这次“辽宁号”航母打击群的远洋训练从4月3日穿过宫古海峡进入太平洋算起，历时23天，是辽宁号服役以来训练时间最长的一次。从网友给出的航线图来看，“辽宁号”航母打击群在穿过宫古海峡后，先是在我国台湾省东部海域进行了训练。4月9日穿过巴士海峡进入我国南海，并在南海进行了包括舰载机起降在内的多项演练。16~17日在西沙群岛附近，随后再往南进入南沙群岛海域。而后往西北航行，经过菲律宾西部的南海海域，在25日通过巴士海峡，并在隔天的26日再次穿越宫古海峡返回东海。这次“辽宁号”航母打击群围绕着南海整整航行了一整圈，是辽宁舰自服役以来在南海活动范围最广的一次，耗时近2周。
https://www.ft.com/us-china-relations?
2021.4.26
https://www.ft.com/content/43421aa9-7b67-4fe3-8559-90c2e3597030
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US-China relations
Biden should summon the courage to reverse course on China
Donald Trump’s hardline policies served only to strengthen Xi Jinping and the communist system
US secretary of state Antony Blinken, second right, and top Chinese foreign policy official Yang Jiechi, second left, argued publicly at a summit in Alaska last month © POOL/AFP via Getty Images
April 7, 2021 12:00 pm by Kishore Mahbubani
The writer, a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore, is author of ‘Has China Won?’
In Alaska last month Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, gave a public dressing down on democracy and human rights to Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy officials. They did so in the confident belief that the US knows how to triumph slowly and patiently over a communist adversary.
Yet even though the US won the cold war, China may understand better why Soviet communism failed. It is determined not to make the same mistakes.
China’s analysis would match that of George Kennan, the US master strategist. Kennan wisely predicted that the cold war would be determined by Washington’s ability “to create among the peoples of the world generally the impression of a country which knows what it wants, which is coping successfully with the problem of its internal life and with the responsibilities of a world power”. Here’s the shocking comparison. Vis-à-vis the Soviet Union, the US was ahead on all three counts. Vis-à-vis China, it is not.
The first indicator of the Soviet collapse came from negative trends in indicators of social wellbeing: life expectancy, infant mortality, suicides, opioid (or alcohol) addiction. Today it’s the US that is doing badly. In contrast to other developed societies, US life expectancy is declining. The educational standards of US teenagers lag behind those of many advanced industrial countries.
If Kennan were alive today, he would be shocked to see the US spending $5tn on unnecessary wars, while the bottom 50 per cent of Americans have seen their incomes stagnate for decades. There is a “sea of despair” among white working classes.
China is doing the opposite of the former Soviet Union. China believes the Soviet leaders failed because they lost touch with their own people, ignoring their welfare while engaged in foreign wars. China hasn’t fought a major war in 40 years. Unlike the Soviet Union, it controls military expenditures.
No country has improved its people’s wellbeing as much as China. In terms of human development, the past 40 years have been the best four decades in 4,000 years of Chinese history.
China still faces many internal problems. Success is not guaranteed. Yet against the backdrop of a century or more of humiliation and suffering, the lives of the Chinese people have never been better. Hence, the US cold war strategy will not work.
The Biden administration is making a strategic mistake in carrying on with Donald Trump’s policies towards China. Curiously, Biden himself declared in 2019 that Trump’s trade war had failed to help US workers. The data backs Biden’s assessment. In 2009, the size of China’s retail goods market was $1.4tn, compared with $4tn for the US. By 2019, after three years of Trump’s trade war, China’s market was approaching $6tn, bigger than that of the US at $5.5tn.
Even if Biden’s administration wished to change course on China, it is constrained by a rising anti-Chinese mood in the US body politic. Unwise steps taken under Trump remain in place: the closure of China’s consulate in Houston, restrictions on Chinese journalists, ending the Peace Corps and Fulbright Scholarship programmes in China.
Recommended
Are the US and China entering a Cold War?
Biden administration officials are clearly afraid to be seen as “soft” on China. However, if they wanted, they could construct a strong case for reversing Trump’s policies. They could point to the reality that the Trump administration actually strengthened China and Xi Jinping, its president. How?
The Chinese people can see that their government has protected them well in the Covid-19 emergency. Meanwhile, the Trump administration floundered, resulting in the deaths of more than half a million Americans. When US vice-president Mike Pence and secretary of state Mike Pompeo hurled insults at China, they only strengthened the standing of the Chinese government. Similarly, most Chinese thought that their policymakers won the public argument in Alaska. So too, did many other Asians.
All this points to a wiser course available to the Biden administration. It should declare, as Biden did earlier, that Trump was wrong on China. It should then press the pause button on the US-Chinese geopolitical contest, while assessing whether Washington can formulate a better strategy against such a formidable competitor.
Ending the trade war with China would boost economic growth in the US, helping Biden in the 2022 midterm elections. And most of the world would cheer if the Biden administration pressed the pause button, especially while Covid-19 is still raging.
Letter in response to this article:
Appeasement is the wrong approach on China / From Patrick Perry, Letterkenny, County Donegal, Ireland
Copyright The Financial Times Limited . All rights reserved. Please don't copy articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
View comments
Latest on
Chinese economy
Europeans reassess the double-edged sword of trade with ChinaApril 28, 2021 4:01 am
China is wrong to think the US faces inevitable declineApril 27, 2021 7:44 pm
China set to report first population decline in five decadesApril 27, 2021 4:39 pm
Iron ore hits record on China demandApril 27, 2021 3:10 pm
Steelmakers: it isn’t easy going green for China’s smokestack citiesApril 26, 2021 11:58 am
Content not loading? Subscribers can also read Biden should summon the courage to reverse course on China on ft.com
Read now
Legal & Privacy
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FT and ‘Financial Times’ are trademarks of The Financial Times Ltd.
The Financial Times and its journalism are subject to a self-regulation regime under the FT Editorial Code of Practice.
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Kennedy School of Government-Institute of Politics
2021.3.16
Skip to main contentThe 2015 Albert H. Gordon Lecture by:
Speaker(s): Kishore Mahbubani Topics: South & Central AsiaTrade RelationsBusiness & Economics Subscribe to the IOP Newsletter Harvard IOP©2021 The President and Fellows of Harvard College Contact Us Privacy Statement Trademark Notice Harvard University Harvard Kennedy SchoolKishore Mahbubani
Dean and Professor in the Practice of Public Policy , Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
And they truly can, now. They have the largest ongoing infrastructure market. It will take all kinds of investments from the world by just a piece of paper called "government gurrantee" - the best no-cost future return promises to the investors. And it worked productively in Deng's time. Look at Beijing's new airport - Can US or Japan or UK builds one in 10 years? What would happen over there in 10 years from now? There are only three options to this aggressive competitor and co-operator:
(1) Close eyes and let it be. US has lost 2 decades by doing that.
(2) Try to stop or destroy it as Trump's administration dreamed. How? What the cost of Afganistan war so far?
(3) Get into it and be part of it. A pan Sino-US joint economy and infrastructure market? May be pan Indi-Sino-US economy?
I see No.3 is the end game, but No. 2 is now the dominated approach in DC. That's very dangerous to the rest of the world.
从郑和下西洋说起，
中國可以，
从这位前看加坡外交官而言
美国不了解这一点，，
从受访中头几分钟可见，，，，
美国十分狭窄的美国观点
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/military/1686337.html