One in five in England have had Covid, modelling suggests
The analysis, by Edge Health, reveals that the true number of coronavirus infections in England could be as high as 12.4 million, equivalent to 22% of the population, as of 3 January. The government’s test-and-trace programme had detected 2.4 million cases by the same date. The model estimates the number of cases in an areas by comparing its number of deaths against an estimated infection fatality rate.
The model suggests that two in five people have been infected in six London and south-eastern local authorities: Barking and Dagenham, Newham, Thurrock, Redbridge, Havering and Tower Hamlets.
The London boroughs of Barking and Dagenham and Newham are each estimated to have had well over 100,000 coronavirus infections each, around 54.2% and 49% of their populations respectively.
Official figures from Public Health England show that just under 14,700 cases recorded in Barking and Dagenham and just under 21,700 in Newham by 3 January.
According to the model, four north-western local authorities, which were hit harder at the start of the pandemic’s second wave, were among the 10 worst-hit local authorities: Liverpool with 38.8% infected, Manchester 38.6%, Rochdale 38% and Salford 37.8%.
据说源头来自从被分流到我们庄机场的国际航班，东邻的过去叫藁城的县，现在或许叫什么区吧，有些在机场从业者，带回。那里有几个天主教教会，有从国外来的传教士，教会集会，再有就是，婚礼葬礼等聚会活动，造成了新冠已经暗暗传播一段时间，一经发现，用脚趾头也能想出来，我国我党的一贯做法，拿旧地方官祭天，新领导上任，如火如茶地大排查。其他省市义务人员来冀援助。
提前通知，某天某时某刻，一切行动停止，三天，快递到小区门口，普通民众唯一可以行动的是，送货人员。
为了减少感染机会，居民核酸取样都到室外，我家有人不能出门，由一名医务人员进屋取样，走后，我妈跟着人家脚印把屋里全部消毒。据我妈说，如果没问题就不会接到通知。 但封城什么时候彻底结束还没准信，据说，为了防止有遗漏了，要做三次取样，此次全市公发现300多例，多数咋藁城一带，以老人居多，多数是参加了，教会婚葬礼。 新领导为了确保万无一失也是拼了。
有个农业银行的朋友，在封城时被困单位三天，三天后回家，小区已经封闭，没有书面证明核酸结果非阳性证明不许入内，我猜并非是医学书面证明，是说她没接到核酸阳性的通知，于是给单位打电话，单位同事专门跑过来给她送单位证明，结果单位同事回去路上被警察拦住，违反封城规定随意出行要受什么处罚吧，这趟差事不是官方行为，同事撒谎说是超市的送菜员，刚给居民送菜。
我老婆闺蜜一家三口，在封城一刻，她被封在自己家，老公被封在他父母家，女儿被封在姥姥姥爷家，万幸这个艰难时刻老人都有人照顾；她自己家就剩一颗白菜，她也懒得网购，每天劈下一个白菜叶煮面条，天天数还剩下几个白菜叶了。
据说北京目前只能出不能进， 目的也是为限制此次春节人员流动吧。我家护工春节估计回不了家了，我妈正发愁春节我家人手问题。。。，去年春节，赶上全面停止，我打车去护工家接她回来的。。
今早看到的新闻，英国按照按死亡人数与新冠死亡率做的数学模型推算，实际感染人数远远大于官方统计，某些地方达到20%， 每5个人中有一个感染，最严重的某些地区可以达到50%，每两个人中有一个。 记得前天看到的the guardian说英国每30左右人中就有一个感染，那就是官方统计吧，3%左右，已经够吓人了。
我庄老百姓普遍存在感谢政府感谢党的情绪，完全配合，毫无抱怨，
我们庄算不上武汉那样的megacity, 也一百多万人口，300多感染，大动干戈，看看安大略这边一天新增4k左右，肯定很多人尤其是 opposition 党也在感谢政府感谢党，thanks to the government, thanks to the 党 in power的误导，人民都不听话。
老人们参加婚礼，造成扩散，因为藁城天主教徒很多，搂草打兔子，谣言顺便恶心天主教会一把，儿子生下来受洗就是藁城教区主教主持的：)
首先是教会问题本身就是一个禁忌，其次这回居然在疫情期间来了外国牧师，而官员并不知情。就这个已经该扒拉下台了。
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says
One in five in England have had Covid, modelling suggests
The analysis, by Edge Health, reveals that the true number of coronavirus infections in England could be as high as 12.4 million, equivalent to 22% of the population, as of 3 January. The government’s test-and-trace programme had detected 2.4 million cases by the same date. The model estimates the number of cases in an areas by comparing its number of deaths against an estimated infection fatality rate.
The model suggests that two in five people have been infected in six London and south-eastern local authorities: Barking and Dagenham, Newham, Thurrock, Redbridge, Havering and Tower Hamlets.
The London boroughs of Barking and Dagenham and Newham are each estimated to have had well over 100,000 coronavirus infections each, around 54.2% and 49% of their populations respectively.
Official figures from Public Health England show that just under 14,700 cases recorded in Barking and Dagenham and just under 21,700 in Newham by 3 January.
According to the model, four north-western local authorities, which were hit harder at the start of the pandemic’s second wave, were among the 10 worst-hit local authorities: Liverpool with 38.8% infected, Manchester 38.6%, Rochdale 38% and Salford 37.8%.