也专开一贴给SwiperTheFox: 关于接种疫苗与否的感染率比较

阿明.
楼主 (文学城)

为节省打字,我这里就用加拿大的数据实例来说明了,详细的可以去看https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread#case_numbers_and_spread

加拿大的数据分不同年龄的只有去年的数据,下面只例出一张全部年龄的感染率比较图形,其实跟英国的也差不多,即Omicron爆发后完全疫苗接种者的感染率高于未打疫苗的感染率。特别给SwiperTheFox看的是里面的数据说明:

About this data

For COVID-19 cases by vaccination status, vaccination status is limited to Health Canada approved vaccines.

Rate per 100,000 (7-day average) is the average rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 for each vaccination status for the previous 7 days as noted.

Rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 is calculated by dividing the number of cases for a vaccination status, by the total number of people with the same vaccination status, and then multiplying by 100,000.

The rate for Unknown vaccination status cannot be calculated.

 

S
SwiperTheFox
感谢你的更正; 英国的数据表下写, 我们不能直接拿这个数据比较;我正在琢磨为什么

这是我正在看的文章;  还没具体看明白。 

https://fullfact.org/health/joe-rogan-alex-berenson-covid-vaccines-phe/#:~:text=However%2C%20as%20we,substantially%20protecting%20them.

Why Mr Berenson was wrong

It is possible that the vaccine protection against symptomatic illness may wane first among older people, who were also the first to be vaccinated.

However, as we explained in detail in our previous article, there are essentially two reasons why this data cannot be used to compare outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

The first is that we don’t know how many unvaccinated people there are. For this, we would need to know the actual populations of each age group in England, and then subtract the vaccinated people from them.

And with vaccination rates often around 90% or higher in older age groups, the population numbers have to be very accurate, or they can skew the infection rates substantially.

In its surveillance reports, PHE (and now the UK Health Security Agency, UKHSA) uses population estimates from the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS), which are higher for the older age groups than population estimates from the Office for National Statistics. This may make Covid case rates look much lower among unvaccinated people than they really are.

The second problem is that vaccinated and unvaccinated people might also differ in other ways which could affect their chance of catching Covid. For instance, vaccinated people might feel they are less likely to catch Covid, and therefore take more risks of being exposed to it.

If so, this could make vaccinated people more “likely” to catch Covid, even though the vaccine itself is substantially protecting them.

阿明.
事实就是这样: 自从Omicron流行后,疫苗几乎无防护感染的能力,自然感染过的都会再感染。
外乡人
我去看了,这个数据好像有问题。

你要是选择年龄段,没有一个是疫苗多的,可为啥全年龄段的就多了呢?

阿明.
注意看日期,其他年龄都是去年的图形。我已经改贴了,谢谢你的提醒。
S
SwiperTheFox
请解释为什么同一个报告里的结论是疫苗有效?

阿明.
你这个表说的是对Delta有效。
外乡人
看到了,每个年龄段都需要缩图,这个设计真遭。
阿明.
就是!其实我前一段进去看过不同年龄的,不是这样。
j
julie116
唯一需要提示的是unvaccinated 包括刚打完一针两周之内的。最好看住院和重症。阳性

因为能控制谁能得到检测会不太准

j
julie116
以后screen shot 一下
g
greennew
大概是分年龄段得各个图到去年10月以后没有更新
阿明.
估计是数据库出问题了。我前一段看过的,不是这样。
g
greennew
楼主贴的是最近30天的图,下面是从去年8月24日开始的,可以明显看出安省12月以前疫苗有效。

 

同意楼主的结论,疫苗无法防止 Omicron 的感染传播。

g
greennew
不清楚以前怎么样,我记得去年底,当完全免疫组刚开始超过时就是这样了。
b
b3706
我保留过9号的40-59岁图示。

j
julie116
希望以后数据改为d0, d1,d2.d3...减少按摩区间