" in minutes from its July 7 meeting, SAGE scientists wrote that "the combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge." It said at the time that "the likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally."
2. 所谓的“免疫逃逸”从概念上讲,病毒也开始自身演化出能躲避其免疫的方法,即发生病毒变异。 你引用的这段里讲到2条“high prevalence and high levels of vaccination”是发生病毒变异 或说“免疫逃逸”的2个条件。从理论角度发生都是有可能的,但问题是这2者分别各自机会有多大?就是人类与病毒的间的种博弈,
" in minutes from its July 7 meeting, SAGE scientists wrote that "the combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge." It said at the time that "the likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html
说印度的铁路系统特好,有人性,随时随地可以停下来载人,中国高铁应该学习。有点怀疑他俩是孪生兄弟
2. 所谓的“免疫逃逸”从概念上讲,病毒也开始自身演化出能躲避其免疫的方法,即发生病毒变异。
你引用的这段里讲到2条“high prevalence and high levels of vaccination”是发生病毒变异 或说“免疫逃逸”的2个条件。从理论角度发生都是有可能的,但问题是这2者分别各自机会有多大?就是人类与病毒的间的种博弈,
首先病毒是要依赖“宿主”才能存活和生存。
疫苗接种阻碍了和破坏了 病毒自身生存条件,病毒就想办法“免疫逃逸“ 。 而高流行率呢,当病毒入侵身体细胞并随意复制自己,快速呈几何级数递增时 自身也会出现的复制错误,就是说病毒感染人数越多,病毒复制次数越多出错率也越高,病毒变异的机会就越大(比如delta变种)。
以上这2者相比较之下,个人觉得,高流行率所带来的病毒变异机会 比 因高疫苗接种率发生的“免疫逃逸“ 机会大得多得多,这点从历史上 疫苗多次抗击各种病毒大流行的例子就能证明。 而高流行率 与有效疫苗高接种率 ,这2者本身是相对抗的,2者同时发生的情形概率很小 或说几乎不大可能。
以上属个人目前分析和理解,欢迎批判指正。。
人类与病毒对抗博弈中就看谁更牛。生存机会少 能活下来的都是强者,群免也可能使病毒变得毒性更强。