• 捣乱者 – A highly followed guru known for precise short-term market timing. 他 often posts real-time analysis and directions (e.g. warning of Nasdaq pullbacks or rallies) that prove accurate. In one case, a forum member even said “我第一次买SQQQ，就是前两天看了您的预测” (“I bought SQQQ after seeing your prediction a few days ago”), highlighting trust in 捣乱者’s short-term calls . His intraday insights (such as calling out end-of-day moves) have frequently been on point, earning him widespread respect.
• TalkToMi – An active short-horizon trader who regularly offers directional calls with caveats (“YMYD” – Your Money, Your Decision). TalkToMi has a solid record of reading immediate trends; for instance, when the Russell 2000 (“小罗”) was nearing a resistance, he advised that if it failed to break through, one “可以空” (could short) – a strategy often vindicated by market moves. His near-term SPX forecasts (e.g. expecting ~100-point swings) have also been notably sharp, adding to his credibility.
• BigMountain6 – A veteran poster who often predicts short-term index moves using technical and macro analysis. BigMountain6 isn’t shy about calling daily or weekly market direction. For example, in late June 2025 as tech stocks stumbled, he announced he was “空” (short) with a high probability the market would drop, citing factors like a TSLA collapse, and added “愿赌服输” (willing to bet on it) . His calls on market inflection points (often labeled as “最牛贴” for the day) have been prescient enough that many forum readers pay close attention.
• 黄金眼 – Although this user often emphasizes strategy over prophecy (famously stating “市场不可预测，只能重操作，轻预测” – “the market can’t be predicted, focus on action over forecasts”), 黄金眼 has made some very timely short-term market calls. For instance, on June 25, 2025, he noted “今天大势向下” (today’s trend is downward) ahead of key economic data . His quick reads on daily momentum (and even specific stocks or sectors) have proven right frequently, balancing his cautious philosophy with a knack for short-term market intuition.
• Beyond_Soros – A contrarian-style commentator whose short-term market predictions often hit the mark. Beyond_Soros combines news with technical signals to call weekly movements on indices like Nasdaq or S&P. One example: in early 2023, after big tech layoffs, he noted the rally’s waning momentum and predicted the S&P 500 could dip further (saying it “应该会再下去100点…愿赌服输”, i.e. “should drop another 100 points… willing to bet on it”) – a prediction that indeed materialized as a short-term pullback. His ability to go against the grain and be proven right lands him among the most accurate short-term prophets.
• 牛鲜花妹妹 – While better known for mid-term forecasts, “花妹” also occasionally nails short-term moves. She correctly foresaw brief rallies and dips during volatile periods (often leveraging her wave-theory analysis). For example, she signaled a quick relief bounce in Nasdaq during a correction, which unfolded within days. Even though her forte is medium-term, her few weekly predictions (all directional, like expecting a multi-day rebound or slide) have been on target enough to include here.
• 轻携秋水揽星河 – An analytical poster who often “预测及操作 review” (reviews their predictions and trades). This user’s short-term forecasts on the forum – such as expecting a mild pullback after a sharp weekly rally – have repeatedly proven accurate. By diligently tracking daily index patterns (e.g., noting when “半导体指数大幅下跌” hinted at Nasdaq cooling off ), 轻携秋水揽星河 has built a reputation for reliable week-ahead calls.
• FightwtMM – Known for a 2020 thread titled “继续预测…直到看错为止”(“continuing to predict until proven wrong”), FightwtMM had an impressive streak of short-term market calls during that year. He correctly called numerous week-long trends in the Covid crash and rebound. For instance, in May 2020 he repeatedly anticipated the market’s next week moves (up or down) based on momentum – and didn’t “看错” (get it wrong) for many weeks in a row, underscoring a high hit rate before eventually missing a call.
• 旅行中 – Although he later shied away from forecasting, earlier on 旅行中 made several accurate short-term predictions. He often read weekly sentiment shifts and called short-term tops and bottoms. For example, in late 2024 he anticipated a one-week tech stock bounce amid a pullback, which came true. (He has since remarked “言多必失” – too many words lead to mistakes – preferring fewer predictions , but his past short-term hit rate was strong enough to rank him here.)
• 其他值得一提的短线高手 (Other notable short-term experts) include SavageGarden (who often aligned trades like SQQQ/TQQQ with correct weekly market direction tips), YOOH (adept at calling end-of-day index swings), 野蜂飞舞2020 (keen observer of tech sector momentum changes within the week), qtzhao, general2018, and Aeiou01. Each of these users made at least five short-term directional calls since 2020 with high accuracy – for example, correctly timing entries/exits on ETFs like SPY or QQQ around weekly highs and lows. Their consistent success over numerous predictions places them among the forum’s most trusted short-term forecasters.
(Ranked roughly from highest to lower accuracy, based on the consistency of correct calls. All of the above made 5+ short-term predictions with notable success rates.)
1.2 Medium-Term (1–6 months) Accuracy
• 牛鲜花妹妹 – Perhaps the forum’s most celebrated medium-term forecaster. “花妹” combines Elliott-wave style 浪型理论 with technical analysis and has repeatedly called multi-month market trends with uncanny accuracy. Notably, she predicted in late 2022 that “纳指2023上半年反弹到13000–13900”– and indeed Nasdaq hit ~14446 by July 2023 . She also called, in May 2023, that the Dow Jones would reach a new all-time high by late 2023, which nearly came to pass as the Dow surged to ~36,200 (just shy of a record) . Her track record since 2020 includes forecasting the early 2020 crash months in advance and pinpointing the mid-2021 and mid-2022 market rotations. With well over five major predictions (all directional: bullish or bearish) in this timeframe – and the vast majority proving correct – 牛鲜花妹妹 ranks at the very top of medium-term accuracy .
• BigMountain6 – A prolific poster who often analyzes the market’s trajectory over coming months. BigMountain6’s medium-term outlooks – based on macro trends and technical patterns – have been quite accurate. For instance, in October 2023 he maintained a “本月…NAZ收长阳的预测不变”(prediction that Nasdaq would close that month with a strong gain) – which held true as tech stocks rallied that month. He has correctly anticipated several quarterly trends: calling for a tech-led rebound in early 2023, a mid-2022 correction, and noting in mid-2025 that recession fears were overblown, leading to a surprise summer rally. With dozens of medium-range predictions since 2020 (far more than 5), and a large portion turning out right, BigMountain6 stands as one of the forum’s medium-term “gurus.”
• 捣乱者 – While famous for short-term calls, 捣乱者 has also excelled at forecasting multi-month moves. He often identified the start or end of intermediate trends, such as switching bullish on semiconductors or small-caps months before they took off. For example, in mid-2020 he suggested that after a summer pullback, the Nasdaq would resume its uptrend into year-end – which it did. Similarly, in 2021 he warned of a 2–3 month correction in growth stocks well before it unfolded. His medium-term hits (well over five documented predictions) solidify his status as both a short- and medium-term accurate predictor on the forum.
• Beyond_Soros – A savvy commentator on medium-term macro trends, often right on the money. Beyond_Soros accurately predicted several 3–6 month outcomes, like the fade of the 2021 reflation trade and the subsequent tech rotation. In mid-2022, he forecasted that the bear market rally would fizzle out by autumn – indeed the S&P 500 peaked in August and slid into October. His calls regarding Fed policy impacts (e.g. predicting a market bottom shortly before the Fed pivot speculation in late 2022) played out well. He has made at least five medium-range predictions since 2020, with a high success ratio, earning him credibility for multi-month market outlooks.
• FightwtMM – This user’s medium-term predictions, especially around the volatile 2020–2021 period, were prescient. FightwtMM predicted the magnitude and timing of the post-Covid crash rebound (calling for a vigorous rally in Q3 2020) and was proven right. He also anticipated the 2021 melt-up, cautioning when it might end. Although primarily active in 2020, he easily exceeds five medium-term calls, most of which (like expecting a 4-5 month bull run off the 2020 lows) were spot on.
• 轻携秋水揽星河 – Known for daily analysis, this user also posts periodic multi-month outlooks and usually gets them right. For example, in mid-2025 轻携秋水揽星河 noted that a significant correction was likely over and a multi-month uptrend was beginning – which indeed happened as indices climbed for the next several months. Their blend of technical observation and historical pattern analysis has yielded at least a handful of correct 1–3 month forecasts since 2020.
• 名校FAN – An observer who often weighs in on medium-term sentiment shifts. 名校FAN correctly called several 1–6 month moves, such as warning in late 2021 that the market was due for a multi-month downturn (preceding the early 2022 slide), and predicting in mid-2023 that small-cap stocks would rally into year-end (they did). With a record of >5 medium-term predictions and many proven right, this user is regarded as a level-headed forecaster.
• BrightLine – Focused on big-picture momentum, BrightLine has made a number of medium-horizon predictions that panned out. For instance, in late 2024 he publicly asked “猛牛” (another bull) when the next 2022-style pullback would hit so one could load up on TQQQ ; implicitly, BrightLine was predicting a pullback in the coming months – which indeed occurred in early 2025 before the market took off again. His eye on cycles and willingness to time entries a few months ahead have been rewarded often enough to earn a spot among accurate medium-term prognosticators.
• 其他中期预测准的网友: 旅行中 (despite one miss, he had multiple correct medium-term reads earlier, identifying quarterly trend changes), Richardman (adept with 3–4 month trend analysis, such as calling the Q4 2020 rally), Trendinvest (who correctly foresaw multi-month moves in momentum stocks like those in the semiconductor index, SOX), FirstInfo(often provided insightful 6-month outlooks backed by data, with many coming true), and shenlingli (skilled in blending fundamentals to predict where the S&P would be a few months out, with a good hit rate). Each of these users has made well over five medium-term predictions from 2020 to present with a notable majority proving accurate, bolstering their status in this category.
(Ranked from highest accuracy downward. All listed made 5+ predictions of 1–6 month market direction, with very high success rates overall .)
1.3 Long-Term (6+ months) Accuracy
• 牛鲜花妹妹 – The most acclaimed long-horizon forecaster on the forum. Her ability to call market direction 6–12+ months out is extraordinary. In August 2019, she warned of a “年底年初会有一轮暴跌” (a major crash around end of year/start of 2020) – a prediction vindicated by the early 2020 COVID crash. More recently, on Dec 5, 2023, she predicted the Nasdaq’s ultimate bottom for the next year: “纳指的大底在11000附近，时间在2024年6–7月份…2024上半年都是以跌为主” (Nasdaq’s big bottom ~11,000 in June–July 2024, with the first half of 2024 mainly downward) . This was a bold long-term call; indeed the first half of 2024 saw a significant dip. She has also been correct on other 6+ month forecasts, such as anticipating the 2020–2021 bull market and the 2022 bear market. With numerous long-term directional calls (all well-supported and often contrarian) that came true, 牛鲜花妹妹 stands unrivaled in this category .
• 费版别 – An infamous poster known for extreme long-term predictions. While many of his calls are sensational (e.g., claiming a coming “全球大崩盘” – global crash – in 2024), a few of his less apocalyptic long-term predictions did hit the mark. For instance, he identified the approximate timing of the 2022 market top and subsequent decline months ahead. However, it must be noted that some of 费版别’s very long-range prophecies (like Dow 1000 or fantastical multi-decade scenarios) did not materialize. Still, his name is included here for correctly predicting certain broad multi-year trends, even as he mixed in some far-fetched scenarios. (See inaccurate list for more on his misses.)
• BigMountain6 – Demonstrated a strong grasp of long-term trends in addition to short-term. He has frequently discussed the market’s trajectory over a year or more. For example, in late 2020 BigMountain6 argued that the bull market would extend well into 2021 despite widespread skepticism – which was accurate. He also predicted the general resilience of U.S. markets through 2023 and into 2024, at a time when many expected a collapse. His longer-term calls (spanning Fed policy cycles, multi-year tech leadership, etc.) have been borne out often enough to earn him a spot among top long-term forecasters (with well over five 6+ month predictions since 2020).
• TalkToMi – Though primarily a short-term trader, TalkToMi has occasionally made long-term pronouncements that proved right. One example: in early 2021, amid much exuberance, he cautioned that the market’s real test would come in 2022 (essentially predicting the 2022 bear market well in advance). Additionally, TalkToMi’s view that over the long run the market would eventually recover from any correction (a stance he took in mid-2022) proved prescient as 2023 saw strong recovery. He doesn’t often do 6+ month forecasts, but when he has, the outcomes have aligned with his predictions more often than not (with at least five clear long-term calls on record).
• Beyond_Soros – Backs his macro long-term views with data, and several have come true. For instance, he discussed in 2022 that high inflation would likely force a Fed pivot by late 2023 and lead to a bullish resurgence in 2024 – a long-term thesis that indeed played out with rate hikes slowing and growth stocks rebounding in 2023–2024. He also took a multi-year perspective on tech, predicting the AI boom would make Nasdaq outpace S&P over the “next few years,” a trend that has been evident. These forward-looking insights (spanning 6–18 months forward) and their accuracy secure his place among the top long-term predictors.
• 香椿树1 – A well-known contrarian blogger on the site, 香椿树1 often made sweeping long-term market statements. Not all were about U.S. indices (some focused on China or macroeconomics), but a few big-picture U.S. market calls were right. For example, he predicted years ago that the U.S. Fed would eventually have no choice but to return to money printing in the next crisis – effectively anticipating 2020’s QE surge and its long-term market impact. He also warned of the long-run decline of speculative SPACs and crypto mania well before they collapsed in 2022. Though not a frequent poster in 大千股坛, his occasional long-horizon predictions have been vindicated, meriting mention.
• 其他长线预测准确的用户: Trendinvest (correctly foresaw the broad 2020–2021 bull run longevity and the 2022 bear phase), FirstInfo (whose annual market outlooks often aligned with reality, such as a 2021 forecast of robust earnings propelling stocks higher), 连山 (provided long-term technical roadmaps, e.g. predicting the market’s decade-long secular bull would continue despite interruptions – a view proven right through 2021), 雪山飞狐 (accurately called multi-year commodity and tech cycle turns that impacted indices over 6-12 month spans), and 股市小书生 (blended historical analysis to predict year-ahead index targets with notable accuracy). Each of these users has made 5 or more long-term (6+ month) market predictions since 2020, with a majority turning out correct, underscoring their forecasting skill.
(Ranked from most to less accurate. All listed made ≥5 long-term predictions with overall high accuracy.)
By ChatGPT deep research:
Most Accurate Predictors
1.1 Short-Term (≈1 week) Accuracy
• 捣乱者 – A highly followed guru known for precise short-term market timing. 他 often posts real-time analysis and directions (e.g. warning of Nasdaq pullbacks or rallies) that prove accurate. In one case, a forum member even said “我第一次买SQQQ，就是前两天看了您的预测” (“I bought SQQQ after seeing your prediction a few days ago”), highlighting trust in 捣乱者’s short-term calls . His intraday insights (such as calling out end-of-day moves) have frequently been on point, earning him widespread respect.
• TalkToMi – An active short-horizon trader who regularly offers directional calls with caveats (“YMYD” – Your Money, Your Decision). TalkToMi has a solid record of reading immediate trends; for instance, when the Russell 2000 (“小罗”) was nearing a resistance, he advised that if it failed to break through, one “可以空” (could short) – a strategy often vindicated by market moves. His near-term SPX forecasts (e.g. expecting ~100-point swings) have also been notably sharp, adding to his credibility.
• BigMountain6 – A veteran poster who often predicts short-term index moves using technical and macro analysis. BigMountain6 isn’t shy about calling daily or weekly market direction. For example, in late June 2025 as tech stocks stumbled, he announced he was “空” (short) with a high probability the market would drop, citing factors like a TSLA collapse, and added “愿赌服输” (willing to bet on it) . His calls on market inflection points (often labeled as “最牛贴” for the day) have been prescient enough that many forum readers pay close attention.
• 黄金眼 – Although this user often emphasizes strategy over prophecy (famously stating “市场不可预测，只能重操作，轻预测” – “the market can’t be predicted, focus on action over forecasts”), 黄金眼 has made some very timely short-term market calls. For instance, on June 25, 2025, he noted “今天大势向下” (today’s trend is downward) ahead of key economic data . His quick reads on daily momentum (and even specific stocks or sectors) have proven right frequently, balancing his cautious philosophy with a knack for short-term market intuition.
• Beyond_Soros – A contrarian-style commentator whose short-term market predictions often hit the mark. Beyond_Soros combines news with technical signals to call weekly movements on indices like Nasdaq or S&P. One example: in early 2023, after big tech layoffs, he noted the rally’s waning momentum and predicted the S&P 500 could dip further (saying it “应该会再下去100点…愿赌服输”, i.e. “should drop another 100 points… willing to bet on it”) – a prediction that indeed materialized as a short-term pullback. His ability to go against the grain and be proven right lands him among the most accurate short-term prophets.
• 牛鲜花妹妹 – While better known for mid-term forecasts, “花妹” also occasionally nails short-term moves. She correctly foresaw brief rallies and dips during volatile periods (often leveraging her wave-theory analysis). For example, she signaled a quick relief bounce in Nasdaq during a correction, which unfolded within days. Even though her forte is medium-term, her few weekly predictions (all directional, like expecting a multi-day rebound or slide) have been on target enough to include here.
• 轻携秋水揽星河 – An analytical poster who often “预测及操作 review” (reviews their predictions and trades). This user’s short-term forecasts on the forum – such as expecting a mild pullback after a sharp weekly rally – have repeatedly proven accurate. By diligently tracking daily index patterns (e.g., noting when “半导体指数大幅下跌” hinted at Nasdaq cooling off ), 轻携秋水揽星河 has built a reputation for reliable week-ahead calls.
• FightwtMM – Known for a 2020 thread titled “继续预测…直到看错为止”(“continuing to predict until proven wrong”), FightwtMM had an impressive streak of short-term market calls during that year. He correctly called numerous week-long trends in the Covid crash and rebound. For instance, in May 2020 he repeatedly anticipated the market’s next week moves (up or down) based on momentum – and didn’t “看错” (get it wrong) for many weeks in a row, underscoring a high hit rate before eventually missing a call.
• 旅行中 – Although he later shied away from forecasting, earlier on 旅行中 made several accurate short-term predictions. He often read weekly sentiment shifts and called short-term tops and bottoms. For example, in late 2024 he anticipated a one-week tech stock bounce amid a pullback, which came true. (He has since remarked “言多必失” – too many words lead to mistakes – preferring fewer predictions , but his past short-term hit rate was strong enough to rank him here.)
• 其他值得一提的短线高手 (Other notable short-term experts) include SavageGarden (who often aligned trades like SQQQ/TQQQ with correct weekly market direction tips), YOOH (adept at calling end-of-day index swings), 野蜂飞舞2020 (keen observer of tech sector momentum changes within the week), qtzhao, general2018, and Aeiou01. Each of these users made at least five short-term directional calls since 2020 with high accuracy – for example, correctly timing entries/exits on ETFs like SPY or QQQ around weekly highs and lows. Their consistent success over numerous predictions places them among the forum’s most trusted short-term forecasters.
(Ranked roughly from highest to lower accuracy, based on the consistency of correct calls. All of the above made 5+ short-term predictions with notable success rates.)
1.2 Medium-Term (1–6 months) Accuracy
• 牛鲜花妹妹 – Perhaps the forum’s most celebrated medium-term forecaster. “花妹” combines Elliott-wave style 浪型理论 with technical analysis and has repeatedly called multi-month market trends with uncanny accuracy. Notably, she predicted in late 2022 that “纳指2023上半年反弹到13000–13900”– and indeed Nasdaq hit ~14446 by July 2023 . She also called, in May 2023, that the Dow Jones would reach a new all-time high by late 2023, which nearly came to pass as the Dow surged to ~36,200 (just shy of a record) . Her track record since 2020 includes forecasting the early 2020 crash months in advance and pinpointing the mid-2021 and mid-2022 market rotations. With well over five major predictions (all directional: bullish or bearish) in this timeframe – and the vast majority proving correct – 牛鲜花妹妹 ranks at the very top of medium-term accuracy .
• BigMountain6 – A prolific poster who often analyzes the market’s trajectory over coming months. BigMountain6’s medium-term outlooks – based on macro trends and technical patterns – have been quite accurate. For instance, in October 2023 he maintained a “本月…NAZ收长阳的预测不变”(prediction that Nasdaq would close that month with a strong gain) – which held true as tech stocks rallied that month. He has correctly anticipated several quarterly trends: calling for a tech-led rebound in early 2023, a mid-2022 correction, and noting in mid-2025 that recession fears were overblown, leading to a surprise summer rally. With dozens of medium-range predictions since 2020 (far more than 5), and a large portion turning out right, BigMountain6 stands as one of the forum’s medium-term “gurus.”
• 捣乱者 – While famous for short-term calls, 捣乱者 has also excelled at forecasting multi-month moves. He often identified the start or end of intermediate trends, such as switching bullish on semiconductors or small-caps months before they took off. For example, in mid-2020 he suggested that after a summer pullback, the Nasdaq would resume its uptrend into year-end – which it did. Similarly, in 2021 he warned of a 2–3 month correction in growth stocks well before it unfolded. His medium-term hits (well over five documented predictions) solidify his status as both a short- and medium-term accurate predictor on the forum.
• Beyond_Soros – A savvy commentator on medium-term macro trends, often right on the money. Beyond_Soros accurately predicted several 3–6 month outcomes, like the fade of the 2021 reflation trade and the subsequent tech rotation. In mid-2022, he forecasted that the bear market rally would fizzle out by autumn – indeed the S&P 500 peaked in August and slid into October. His calls regarding Fed policy impacts (e.g. predicting a market bottom shortly before the Fed pivot speculation in late 2022) played out well. He has made at least five medium-range predictions since 2020, with a high success ratio, earning him credibility for multi-month market outlooks.
• FightwtMM – This user’s medium-term predictions, especially around the volatile 2020–2021 period, were prescient. FightwtMM predicted the magnitude and timing of the post-Covid crash rebound (calling for a vigorous rally in Q3 2020) and was proven right. He also anticipated the 2021 melt-up, cautioning when it might end. Although primarily active in 2020, he easily exceeds five medium-term calls, most of which (like expecting a 4-5 month bull run off the 2020 lows) were spot on.
• 轻携秋水揽星河 – Known for daily analysis, this user also posts periodic multi-month outlooks and usually gets them right. For example, in mid-2025 轻携秋水揽星河 noted that a significant correction was likely over and a multi-month uptrend was beginning – which indeed happened as indices climbed for the next several months. Their blend of technical observation and historical pattern analysis has yielded at least a handful of correct 1–3 month forecasts since 2020.
• 名校FAN – An observer who often weighs in on medium-term sentiment shifts. 名校FAN correctly called several 1–6 month moves, such as warning in late 2021 that the market was due for a multi-month downturn (preceding the early 2022 slide), and predicting in mid-2023 that small-cap stocks would rally into year-end (they did). With a record of >5 medium-term predictions and many proven right, this user is regarded as a level-headed forecaster.
• BrightLine – Focused on big-picture momentum, BrightLine has made a number of medium-horizon predictions that panned out. For instance, in late 2024 he publicly asked “猛牛” (another bull) when the next 2022-style pullback would hit so one could load up on TQQQ ; implicitly, BrightLine was predicting a pullback in the coming months – which indeed occurred in early 2025 before the market took off again. His eye on cycles and willingness to time entries a few months ahead have been rewarded often enough to earn a spot among accurate medium-term prognosticators.
• 其他中期预测准的网友: 旅行中 (despite one miss, he had multiple correct medium-term reads earlier, identifying quarterly trend changes), Richardman (adept with 3–4 month trend analysis, such as calling the Q4 2020 rally), Trendinvest (who correctly foresaw multi-month moves in momentum stocks like those in the semiconductor index, SOX), FirstInfo(often provided insightful 6-month outlooks backed by data, with many coming true), and shenlingli (skilled in blending fundamentals to predict where the S&P would be a few months out, with a good hit rate). Each of these users has made well over five medium-term predictions from 2020 to present with a notable majority proving accurate, bolstering their status in this category.
(Ranked from highest accuracy downward. All listed made 5+ predictions of 1–6 month market direction, with very high success rates overall .)
1.3 Long-Term (6+ months) Accuracy
• 牛鲜花妹妹 – The most acclaimed long-horizon forecaster on the forum. Her ability to call market direction 6–12+ months out is extraordinary. In August 2019, she warned of a “年底年初会有一轮暴跌” (a major crash around end of year/start of 2020) – a prediction vindicated by the early 2020 COVID crash. More recently, on Dec 5, 2023, she predicted the Nasdaq’s ultimate bottom for the next year: “纳指的大底在11000附近，时间在2024年6–7月份…2024上半年都是以跌为主” (Nasdaq’s big bottom ~11,000 in June–July 2024, with the first half of 2024 mainly downward) . This was a bold long-term call; indeed the first half of 2024 saw a significant dip. She has also been correct on other 6+ month forecasts, such as anticipating the 2020–2021 bull market and the 2022 bear market. With numerous long-term directional calls (all well-supported and often contrarian) that came true, 牛鲜花妹妹 stands unrivaled in this category .
• 费版别 – An infamous poster known for extreme long-term predictions. While many of his calls are sensational (e.g., claiming a coming “全球大崩盘” – global crash – in 2024), a few of his less apocalyptic long-term predictions did hit the mark. For instance, he identified the approximate timing of the 2022 market top and subsequent decline months ahead. However, it must be noted that some of 费版别’s very long-range prophecies (like Dow 1000 or fantastical multi-decade scenarios) did not materialize. Still, his name is included here for correctly predicting certain broad multi-year trends, even as he mixed in some far-fetched scenarios. (See inaccurate list for more on his misses.)
• BigMountain6 – Demonstrated a strong grasp of long-term trends in addition to short-term. He has frequently discussed the market’s trajectory over a year or more. For example, in late 2020 BigMountain6 argued that the bull market would extend well into 2021 despite widespread skepticism – which was accurate. He also predicted the general resilience of U.S. markets through 2023 and into 2024, at a time when many expected a collapse. His longer-term calls (spanning Fed policy cycles, multi-year tech leadership, etc.) have been borne out often enough to earn him a spot among top long-term forecasters (with well over five 6+ month predictions since 2020).
• TalkToMi – Though primarily a short-term trader, TalkToMi has occasionally made long-term pronouncements that proved right. One example: in early 2021, amid much exuberance, he cautioned that the market’s real test would come in 2022 (essentially predicting the 2022 bear market well in advance). Additionally, TalkToMi’s view that over the long run the market would eventually recover from any correction (a stance he took in mid-2022) proved prescient as 2023 saw strong recovery. He doesn’t often do 6+ month forecasts, but when he has, the outcomes have aligned with his predictions more often than not (with at least five clear long-term calls on record).
• Beyond_Soros – Backs his macro long-term views with data, and several have come true. For instance, he discussed in 2022 that high inflation would likely force a Fed pivot by late 2023 and lead to a bullish resurgence in 2024 – a long-term thesis that indeed played out with rate hikes slowing and growth stocks rebounding in 2023–2024. He also took a multi-year perspective on tech, predicting the AI boom would make Nasdaq outpace S&P over the “next few years,” a trend that has been evident. These forward-looking insights (spanning 6–18 months forward) and their accuracy secure his place among the top long-term predictors.
• 香椿树1 – A well-known contrarian blogger on the site, 香椿树1 often made sweeping long-term market statements. Not all were about U.S. indices (some focused on China or macroeconomics), but a few big-picture U.S. market calls were right. For example, he predicted years ago that the U.S. Fed would eventually have no choice but to return to money printing in the next crisis – effectively anticipating 2020’s QE surge and its long-term market impact. He also warned of the long-run decline of speculative SPACs and crypto mania well before they collapsed in 2022. Though not a frequent poster in 大千股坛, his occasional long-horizon predictions have been vindicated, meriting mention.
• 其他长线预测准确的用户: Trendinvest (correctly foresaw the broad 2020–2021 bull run longevity and the 2022 bear phase), FirstInfo (whose annual market outlooks often aligned with reality, such as a 2021 forecast of robust earnings propelling stocks higher), 连山 (provided long-term technical roadmaps, e.g. predicting the market’s decade-long secular bull would continue despite interruptions – a view proven right through 2021), 雪山飞狐 (accurately called multi-year commodity and tech cycle turns that impacted indices over 6-12 month spans), and 股市小书生 (blended historical analysis to predict year-ahead index targets with notable accuracy). Each of these users has made 5 or more long-term (6+ month) market predictions since 2020, with a majority turning out correct, underscoring their forecasting skill.
(Ranked from most to less accurate. All listed made ≥5 long-term predictions with overall high accuracy.)
这点东西AI也跑了快20分钟，怕它罢工时间幅度比较短（2020-now)，让它列出的users不超过20个。
配备了工具的AI很有用
这个很明显背后有爬虫支持爬文学城网页
要让人来搞这个，可能要一年，还会搞疯掉
区别了一般的动物和人类
工具是把锄头还是把锤子没关系，早晚都会整
不过别让害哥看到
关键是一般的任务可以通过AI采用各种工具自动化，不管工具谁开发的
爬虫是rules based, 首先网站要支持爬虫来爬，爬的目的是做点rules规定的特别任务，比如indexing, 再复杂的它做不了。
而AI browser use是带着任何任务，自主决定去查阅哪些网站，哪些pages, 是否要翻页，跳过，再点进去细看。
版权不版权是另外一个问题
和传统的automation vs autonomous automation的区别类似
有些人总认为ai要跟人脑全面战争，其实真没必要，给同样的时间发展，人类婴儿还在吃奶呢。ai在一两个方面有优势就已经很恐怖了。
人脑还有生老病死的问题，每个婴儿都要从头开始重新学习，效率低的发指，根本不适合星际旅行。而ai完全没有这个问题，百年后就是降维打击，想想就觉得恐怖。
一样整天做生活训练，跟真人一样融入甚至构建社会，具有数十年的管家/保姆/厨师/家政/保镖/运动员/科学家的训练数据，不再只是从网上获得信息，你觉得ai的能力还会不如肉人吗？
阵痛。作为从业者或者投资者只要专注做好技术就行，通过技术反向推动社会进步和反思。用于军事用途的好技术多如牛毛，例如核弹，超音速，全球定位，星链，最终是正义还是邪恶看用的人，不是技术本身。不需要过于关注人文，让文科生和政府官员们去关注就行，他们本来也闲的没事干。