But H RD admission class 2027 is 2.5%. Do you think RD applicants can share this average rate in RD round? I think those applied in RD should have a much lower percentage of admitable candidates than the average RD admission rate. To say it is 1.5% is very reasonable.
以上是College Essay Guy 说的关于前年的数字。不是去年class 2027。MIT并未公布这个。这1.8%,是他根据下面这个数据估算而已。
而MIT公布的，是下面这个Class 2025的Ella T '25在admission blog里说的数据：
August 26th, 2021
Once I got to MIT, I met more people who were deferred. Even though there were 10,673 applicants who were deferred, only 194 were accepted. That's 1.8%. I've heard a lot of things about this. Some said that we were the luckiest at MIT. Some said that we were the worst at MIT. I tried to embrace both. Now, I don't think either are true.
EA中被H、Y、P、S、M给Defer了，那么在RD阶段被录取的概率有多高呢？
H、P和M基本上 defer 了大部分的EA，那这些Deferral在RD阶段的概率就不高。
S和Y的deferral，只占极少部分的EA，这两家的Deferral在RD阶段的概率就很高。
但是，低到底是多低，高又是多高，今天教你一个估算方法，以后就不用盲目了。
那些做惯了多年Counselor、Consultant的，除了真的有AO内线的，谁也搞不清这个概率。那么从今往后，咱就把他们都辞了算了。
我没有内线，但我算得出今年S家Deferral Admission概率 87%，Y家是60%，H家只有18%，M家最惨才8%。Williams的Defferal很少，录取概率几乎100%。
想听的，就举手。
世上本来没有路，举手的人多了，我带你们走出一条路。
更多我的博客文章>>> 怎么估算 Deferral Admission 概率 柯侯郭朱马山姆 凸子尘报：柯文哲、Altman 和 Instability 凸子尘报：蓝绿、白川和2024 College Essay系列（三十七）：芝大 小文书 Why Chicago（3）
60% of EA deferrals to RD will end up admitted in RD. This is a conditional probability.
关键在回答三个问题：1）how many deferrals from EA/ED；2）how many acceptable applicants in RD；and 3) how many to offer in RD.
1）用公布的或者已知的或者谣传的 Deferral Rate
2）用RD admission rate来估算RD新申请里的合格数量（想想为什么这样做其实很合理）
3）用RD offer数量每年都公布，基本差不多。
defer-to-waitlist捞起率和RD-waitlist捞起率是一样的吗？
Assuming RD population is 44925 (projected from last year). RD admits = 2275(last year) - 709 (EA) - 1096 = 470.
470 /44925 = 1%. This is unlikely low.
If we assume 30% deferred are admitted, then 30% * 1566 = 548.
Assuming RD population is 44925 (projected from last year). then RD admits = 2275(last year) - 709 (EA) - 548= 1018.
1018 /44925 = 2.3%. This feels more reasonable.
But all things considered, I think only 20-25% deferred will be admitted.
Even simpler calculation,
20% * 60% = 12%, add that to EA admits of 9%, we got 21% total for EA pool. That's highly unlikely when the overall pool has <5% chance.
但这一帖还解决不了您这个问题，以后再开贴解决WL Admission Rate的估算。
But H RD admission class 2027 is 2.5%. Do you think RD applicants can share this average rate in RD round? I think those applied in RD should have a much lower percentage of admitable candidates than the average RD admission rate. To say it is 1.5% is very reasonable.
even though it suggests the rate of 30%, per my original calculation. Perhaps 60% for the S deferred
“Class 2026 (2021-22申请年度）EA 14781, admit 697, defer 9488，deferral admission 176 (1.8%)”
以上是College Essay Guy 说的关于前年的数字。不是去年class 2027。MIT并未公布这个。这1.8%,是他根据下面这个数据估算而已。
而MIT公布的，是下面这个Class 2025的Ella T '25在admission blog里说的数据：
August 26th, 2021
Once I got to MIT, I met more people who were deferred. Even though there were 10,673 applicants who were deferred, only 194 were accepted. That's 1.8%. I've heard a lot of things about this. Some said that we were the luckiest at MIT. Some said that we were the worst at MIT. I tried to embrace both. Now, I don't think either are true.
https://mitadmissions.org/apply/process/stats/
Yale EA deferred 20% x admitted 17% = Yale RD的录取率3.3%
是不是可以这样理解？大概EA deferred的学生中有17%左右在RA录取？