As China–United States relations were being normalized in 1979, Rozelle received a B.S. degree from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.[1] While he was working toward his Masters at Cornell in 1982, Rozelle attempted to perform researches regarding "the system of contract labor in rural areas" in Shandong, China through applying for the fund by the United States National Science Foundation.[5] Nevertheless, the plan was not successful and Rozelle ended up leaving school temporarily to work until about two years later, he was sent to China by Cornell as an instructor of Western economics upon receiving an invitation from Nanjing Agricultural University.[5] Due to his strong interest in "poverty alleviation in rural areas", Rozelle picked hybrid rice production as the subject of his doctoral dissertation and acquired his Ph.D from the Department of Agricultural Economics of Cornell University in 1991.[1][5]
中国问题多多，但只要不打仗不分裂，中国就会很稳定的一步一步往前走，没啥大问题。
其中一个采访人Dan Slane是我嫂子的叔叔.
中美商贸协会的成员.
一个是trends，另一个是disruptive events。中国未来一个最大的不确定性是习之后的权力传承会造成怎么样的disruptions。历史上长期的强人专制之后往往会产生意想不到的disruptions。
spendthrift这词，当然也有加拿大小粉红们很不忿，这不是我们的JOB吗，他凭什么来骂。
然后加拿大的记者们各种场合都提这个问题，中方被问到了都是一口咬定私人账号骂的，加方被问到了都是哼嗯哼嗯。
北大清华的顶级学生没人做学术，各个都是参与挣钱多的计算机，金融。。。
这背后的软实力跟不上。不过俄罗斯也一样，顶尖人才还是往欧美跑。
但是基础教育跟不上，就会难很多。
我们经历了40年前的日本，不过日本90年代后银行不良资本，经济萎缩，就是产业链和科技慢慢调整。好在他们的科技也开始追赶美国，2000年后日本人很多得诺奖的。而且在发明和专利申请上，也要赶超美国。
日本人跟中国人在智力和文化上有点像。聪明，勤奋。。。中国要是照着日本人的路子走，也许也会成功转型。
不过中国和日本最大区别是政治体制不同。所以结果未知。
1. 斯坦福的学者Scott Rozelle
他深入中国农村，研究城乡差距和农村孩子失学问题等，从八十年代就开始了。
维基上摘一段：
As China–United States relations were being normalized in 1979, Rozelle received a B.S. degree from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.[1] While he was working toward his Masters at Cornell in 1982, Rozelle attempted to perform researches regarding "the system of contract labor in rural areas" in Shandong, China through applying for the fund by the United States National Science Foundation.[5] Nevertheless, the plan was not successful and Rozelle ended up leaving school temporarily to work until about two years later, he was sent to China by Cornell as an instructor of Western economics upon receiving an invitation from Nanjing Agricultural University.[5] Due to his strong interest in "poverty alleviation in rural areas", Rozelle picked hybrid rice production as the subject of his doctoral dissertation and acquired his Ph.D from the Department of Agricultural Economics of Cornell University in 1991.[1][5]
https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/reap/people/scott_rozelle
https://profiles.stanford.edu/scott-rozelle
今年他和南加大学者关于中国问题的讨论：
2. Ray Dalio:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/changing-world-order-ray-dalio-1f
他的儿子曾在中国做过公益，他自己也是和中国有交流，看了他的书才知道。
我一般对善良、有人味的企业家比较感兴趣。
3. Elon Musk对中国的看法，因为，他在中国有特斯拉企业，所以一手的信息比较多。聪敏人的判断很重要。
总的感觉，企业家比政客要客观、敏锐。