A discussion on the future of Russia following the Putin era must be speculative, as the outcome depends on a complex interplay of internal politics, economic factors, military results, and geopolitical relationships. While no one can predict the future with certainty, it won't hurt to consider the following six scenarios of Russia's endgame:
1. Renewed Great Power
This scenario would require a fundamental economic shift away from dependence on natural resources toward a more diversified, innovative, and technologically advanced economy. It would also necessitate a strong, stable government and the ability to project power and influence on a global scale. Russia's current trajectory, however, runs in the opposite direction. Waiting ahead is neither revival nor renewal.
2. Stagnation
The stagnation scenario posits that Russia will continue on its current path of economic and political decline. This is perhaps the most likely outcome, as it is a continuation of existing trends. Since the early 2010s, Russia's economy has been characterized by slow growth and an inability to implement meaningful reforms. A post-Putin government could easily find itself mired in the same challenges, unable or unwilling to break from the status quo. This way, Russia would lead to a sharp decrease in its global influence and the living standards for its population.
3. Implosion
A catastrophic collapse of the Russian state is plausible, not just possible. This could be triggered by a combination of factors, such as a military defeat, widespread internal unrest, or a complete economic breakdown. An implosion would likely lead to a period of intense chaos, with various factions vying for power. This scenario could be likened to the collapse of the Soviet Union but with an even more volatile and unpredictable outcome. A key factor here is the stability of Russia's security and power elites. If they were to fracture, the central government could lose control, leading to a breakdown of authority. The existence of Russia's vast nuclear arsenal makes this a particularly dangerous and concerning possibility. Raise a red flag here.
4. Breakup
This is a Balkanization scenario, which is a more extreme form of implosion resulting in the fragmentation of the Russian Federation into multiple independent states. Given Russia's vast size and diverse ethnic makeup, with numerous non-Russian republics, a breakup is a real possibility, especially in the event of a severe political crisis. Regions with strong national identities or those that feel marginalized by the central government could assert their independence. The Chechen Wars of the 1990s and early 2000s are a historical precedent for such a conflict, demonstrating the potential for violent secessionist movements. A breakup would fundamentally reshape the geopolitical map of Eurasia and could lead to new regional conflicts and power vacuums. I bet a worried China is already watching its "friendly neighbor" very closely these days.
5. Nationalist Military Mobilization
In this scenario, Russia doubles down on its current course, with a heavy emphasis on nationalism, militarism, and a siege mentality. A post-Putin government could seek to unify the country by portraying itself as a victim of Western aggression and by relying on martial power to assert its interests. This would involve a full-scale militarization of society, with a focus on defense spending and a readiness for conflict. Such a hungry bear with long and sharp claws would have to be caged by NATO and its allies, one way or another. Expect a jumpy Europe.
6. Westernization
Frankly, this is my least expected scenario because I have an incredibly hard time imagining a Russia that embraces democratic values, integrates with Europe, and aligns with Western powers. Above all, this would be the most radical departure from Russia's current trajectory and would require a profound shift in its political culture and leadership. Such a move would be met with intense opposition from illiberal and nationalist elements within Russia, including powerful figures in the military and intelligence services. A pro-Western government would face the monumental task of dismantling the existing authoritarian power structures and building a new society based on rule of law, individual freedoms, and economic transparency. While many Russians may desire closer ties with the West, the entrenched interests of the current political system will make this pro-Western outcome no more than pie in the sky. For young Russians, better vote with their feet, which they have proved they are quite good at.
What's on the Rusian menu for the future might look like a buffet. Yet, truth be told, only borscht would be served on a good day should there be one.
A Nuclear Bear That Dies Hard
The vastness of Russia's nuclear arsenal, which is the world's largest, presents unique and profound challenges that extend far beyond the Bear's cave. The way these weapons are managed in a period of chaos would fundamentally shape the "final days" of the Russian Federation and the future of global security. The primary risk is a loss of centralized control over the nuclear weapons. This could manifest in the following ways:
1.Fragmentation of Command and Control
In a scenario of political implosion or breakup, the central authority in Moscow could lose its ability to command and control its nuclear forces. The "nuclear button" could become a subject of a power struggle among competing factions—military leaders, regional governors, or even paramilitary groups. This would raise the possibility of an unauthorized or accidental launch, either as a result of miscommunication, a desperate act by a rogue element, or a preemptive strike born out of fear and mistrust.
2. Proliferation and Loose Nukes
A fragmented state could lead to a fragmented arsenal. If regions or republics within the Russian Federation declare independence, they might find themselves in possession of nuclear weapons or fissile material. This was a major concern during the collapse of the Soviet Union, as Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan inherited nuclear weapons on their soil. Through a combination of international diplomacy and financial assistance (such as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program), these states agreed to transfer their weapons back to Russia. However, a future breakup could be far more chaotic, with no clear succession plan or willingness to cooperate, leading to new nuclear-armed states and the risk of proliferation to non-state actors or other countries.
3. Nuclear Black Market
The collapse of a state and its economy could also create a "nuclear black market." Individuals with knowledge of the nuclear infrastructure, or with access to fissile material, could be tempted to sell it to the highest bidder. This would be a catastrophic outcome, as it would enable terrorist organizations or other hostile entities to acquire nuclear weapons or "dirty bombs," fundamentally altering the global security landscape.
4. The "Use It or Lose It" Dilemma
To deter a rival faction, every "nuclear stakeholder" might feel pressured to stage a preemptive strike to secure its power. This could lead to a localized nuclear exchange, with devastating consequences for the surrounding region and the world at large.
The precedent of the Soviet Union's dissolution offers a glimmer of hope. However, the circumstances of a post-Putin collapse could be different. The political will to cooperate inside and outside of Russia might not be as strong. The geopolitical environment is also more complex, with a deeper level of distrust between Russia and the West.
In short, the nuclear arsenal would not merely be an element of a collapsing Russia; it would be the central and most terrifying factor shaping its final days. It is the one element that could transform a domestic political crisis into a global catastrophe, with the potential to trigger a nuclear conflict or create a world where nuclear weapons are no longer controlled by a central authority. The management of this arsenal would be a race against time, with the future of humanity at stake.
From now on, the primal fear will be this one: a nuclear bear gives birth to a nuclear 9/11.
Author: jeffnaper
A discussion on the future of Russia following the Putin era must be speculative, as the outcome depends on a complex interplay of internal politics, economic factors, military results, and geopolitical relationships. While no one can predict the future with certainty, it won't hurt to consider the following six scenarios of Russia's endgame:
1. Renewed Great Power
This scenario would require a fundamental economic shift away from dependence on natural resources toward a more diversified, innovative, and technologically advanced economy. It would also necessitate a strong, stable government and the ability to project power and influence on a global scale. Russia's current trajectory, however, runs in the opposite direction. Waiting ahead is neither revival nor renewal.
2. Stagnation
The stagnation scenario posits that Russia will continue on its current path of economic and political decline. This is perhaps the most likely outcome, as it is a continuation of existing trends. Since the early 2010s, Russia's economy has been characterized by slow growth and an inability to implement meaningful reforms. A post-Putin government could easily find itself mired in the same challenges, unable or unwilling to break from the status quo. This way, Russia would lead to a sharp decrease in its global influence and the living standards for its population.
3. Implosion
A catastrophic collapse of the Russian state is plausible, not just possible. This could be triggered by a combination of factors, such as a military defeat, widespread internal unrest, or a complete economic breakdown. An implosion would likely lead to a period of intense chaos, with various factions vying for power. This scenario could be likened to the collapse of the Soviet Union but with an even more volatile and unpredictable outcome. A key factor here is the stability of Russia's security and power elites. If they were to fracture, the central government could lose control, leading to a breakdown of authority. The existence of Russia's vast nuclear arsenal makes this a particularly dangerous and concerning possibility. Raise a red flag here.
4. Breakup
This is a Balkanization scenario, which is a more extreme form of implosion resulting in the fragmentation of the Russian Federation into multiple independent states. Given Russia's vast size and diverse ethnic makeup, with numerous non-Russian republics, a breakup is a real possibility, especially in the event of a severe political crisis. Regions with strong national identities or those that feel marginalized by the central government could assert their independence. The Chechen Wars of the 1990s and early 2000s are a historical precedent for such a conflict, demonstrating the potential for violent secessionist movements. A breakup would fundamentally reshape the geopolitical map of Eurasia and could lead to new regional conflicts and power vacuums. I bet a worried China is already watching its "friendly neighbor" very closely these days.
5. Nationalist Military Mobilization
In this scenario, Russia doubles down on its current course, with a heavy emphasis on nationalism, militarism, and a siege mentality. A post-Putin government could seek to unify the country by portraying itself as a victim of Western aggression and by relying on martial power to assert its interests. This would involve a full-scale militarization of society, with a focus on defense spending and a readiness for conflict. Such a hungry bear with long and sharp claws would have to be caged by NATO and its allies, one way or another. Expect a jumpy Europe.
6. Westernization
Frankly, this is my least expected scenario because I have an incredibly hard time imagining a Russia that embraces democratic values, integrates with Europe, and aligns with Western powers. Above all, this would be the most radical departure from Russia's current trajectory and would require a profound shift in its political culture and leadership. Such a move would be met with intense opposition from illiberal and nationalist elements within Russia, including powerful figures in the military and intelligence services. A pro-Western government would face the monumental task of dismantling the existing authoritarian power structures and building a new society based on rule of law, individual freedoms, and economic transparency. While many Russians may desire closer ties with the West, the entrenched interests of the current political system will make this pro-Western outcome no more than pie in the sky. For young Russians, better vote with their feet, which they have proved they are quite good at.
What's on the Rusian menu for the future might look like a buffet. Yet, truth be told, only borscht would be served on a good day should there be one.
A Nuclear Bear That Dies Hard
The vastness of Russia's nuclear arsenal, which is the world's largest, presents unique and profound challenges that extend far beyond the Bear's cave. The way these weapons are managed in a period of chaos would fundamentally shape the "final days" of the Russian Federation and the future of global security. The primary risk is a loss of centralized control over the nuclear weapons. This could manifest in the following ways:
1.Fragmentation of Command and Control
In a scenario of political implosion or breakup, the central authority in Moscow could lose its ability to command and control its nuclear forces. The "nuclear button" could become a subject of a power struggle among competing factions—military leaders, regional governors, or even paramilitary groups. This would raise the possibility of an unauthorized or accidental launch, either as a result of miscommunication, a desperate act by a rogue element, or a preemptive strike born out of fear and mistrust.
2. Proliferation and Loose Nukes
A fragmented state could lead to a fragmented arsenal. If regions or republics within the Russian Federation declare independence, they might find themselves in possession of nuclear weapons or fissile material. This was a major concern during the collapse of the Soviet Union, as Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan inherited nuclear weapons on their soil. Through a combination of international diplomacy and financial assistance (such as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program), these states agreed to transfer their weapons back to Russia. However, a future breakup could be far more chaotic, with no clear succession plan or willingness to cooperate, leading to new nuclear-armed states and the risk of proliferation to non-state actors or other countries.
3. Nuclear Black Market
The collapse of a state and its economy could also create a "nuclear black market." Individuals with knowledge of the nuclear infrastructure, or with access to fissile material, could be tempted to sell it to the highest bidder. This would be a catastrophic outcome, as it would enable terrorist organizations or other hostile entities to acquire nuclear weapons or "dirty bombs," fundamentally altering the global security landscape.
4. The "Use It or Lose It" Dilemma
To deter a rival faction, every "nuclear stakeholder" might feel pressured to stage a preemptive strike to secure its power. This could lead to a localized nuclear exchange, with devastating consequences for the surrounding region and the world at large.
The precedent of the Soviet Union's dissolution offers a glimmer of hope. However, the circumstances of a post-Putin collapse could be different. The political will to cooperate inside and outside of Russia might not be as strong. The geopolitical environment is also more complex, with a deeper level of distrust between Russia and the West.
In short, the nuclear arsenal would not merely be an element of a collapsing Russia; it would be the central and most terrifying factor shaping its final days. It is the one element that could transform a domestic political crisis into a global catastrophe, with the potential to trigger a nuclear conflict or create a world where nuclear weapons are no longer controlled by a central authority. The management of this arsenal would be a race against time, with the future of humanity at stake.
From now on, the primal fear will be this one: a nuclear bear gives birth to a nuclear 9/11.
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