The stronger than expected earning season for US equities that we were looking for has indeed now happened. Work from Deutsche Bank below shows S&P is moving in line to typical earnings season rally.
After earnings where to from here?
In Europe while clarity around US tariffs is welcome relief it is no better than consensus. Instead the EURUSD dominates as the strong Euro has removed earnings momentum for now which is why European markets have been range bound. Thus, it would not be unreasonable to assume European indicies continue to chop around in line to moves in the currency.
In the USA with earnings season completing we move from micro back to macro. Here comments from Powell this week have seen bond markets largely price out rate cuts and thus it is back to earnings as the driver. With some months till we hear from corporates again, liquidity set to dry up over the summer months and with valuations at the upper bound it would not be illogical for US markets to consolidate and chop around with perhaps a shallow correction from here.
Medium term there remain strong stimulus tailwinds to come from the US OBBB stimulus and Germany’s massive stimulus programme into 2026.
S&P500 HIT THE HIGHS: TIME TO HIT THE BEACH?
The stronger than expected earning season for US equities that we were looking for has indeed now happened. Work from Deutsche Bank below shows S&P is moving in line to typical earnings season rally.
After earnings where to from here?
In Europe while clarity around US tariffs is welcome relief it is no better than consensus. Instead the EURUSD dominates as the strong Euro has removed earnings momentum for now which is why European markets have been range bound. Thus, it would not be unreasonable to assume European indicies continue to chop around in line to moves in the currency.
In the USA with earnings season completing we move from micro back to macro. Here comments from Powell this week have seen bond markets largely price out rate cuts and thus it is back to earnings as the driver. With some months till we hear from corporates again, liquidity set to dry up over the summer months and with valuations at the upper bound it would not be illogical for US markets to consolidate and chop around with perhaps a shallow correction from here.
Medium term there remain strong stimulus tailwinds to come from the US OBBB stimulus and Germany’s massive stimulus programme into 2026.
Enjoy the beach.
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/2151933.html
中国方面的更大经济刺激计划是没有了。这让币圈马上突破的愿望破灭鸟。
在会议上，对房地产只提了一句。主要内容是老习大骂地方政府把事情搞砸了。都去搞人工智能，电动车和算力。然后懂车帝就在交通部指导下搞了这个测试。信号就是老习不想再给这些亏损的电车企业贴钱了。我认为是重大政策转变信号。投资A股的得当心啦。
美股目前估值较高。不宜激进。愿意采取何种策略降风险就靠自己啦。