DCA/定投 only matters if you don't have much invested already

n
njrookie
楼主 (文学峸)

if you start with 1M, monthly 1K DCA makes little difference

and if you do not have 1M liquid wealth to invest yet, focus on your w2 and 

just max out your retirement acct and go 100% SP500 until you reach 1M. 

focusing on your career = investing in yourself. human capital, that is.

So yes to DCA at this stage.

 

==================

Once you have lots of $$$ invested in the market, then DCA or not makes little difference to the overall wealth accumulation.

 

your overall return is the weighted avg of different components.

the weights is the $$ $ amount invested in that component.

the components usually are thought of as diferent ticker names. but you can also view each DCA allocation as another component.

when you have 1M invested already, and have another 10K to DCA throught the year, that 10K is only 1% of portfolio weights. That 10K can make 100% , but it can only add 1% to your overall return.

In summary, DCA is good for

1 trendless market (as in 2022-2023, where market did a whole lot of nothing). An even better approach in this type of market is a tiered rule: you sell a certain % of your existing investment for certain % of market upward movement; and you buy a certain % for certain % of market downward movement.

2 young and new investors without much networth. In this case DCA helps you to capture slightly better than average price (as same $$$ amount buys more shares at lower price).

 

Just my 2c.

n
njrookie
and DCA helps if market is not trending, ie mean reverting

 

if market is trending UP, you want to go all in at the very beginning.

if market is tredning down, you want to wait until the every end to catch knife.

the problem is you only know which way market is trending ex post.

SPY tends to mean revert and good candidate for DCA.

QQQ tends to trend more, but it can trend in both directions. It is not a good candidate for DCA. 

d
drgas
指数定投虽然稳定, 但回报不高,要长期坚持,不能随便拿钱出来,还是有局限性的
n
njrookie
你说的是另外一件事。。。指数投资稳定不稳定要看进入的点位。。。我是说如果你已经几米在里面了,W2里面定不定投没啥区别
d
drgas
W2里面能有多少钱拿出来定投?除非省吃俭用长期坚持,房地产有4重魔力,定投都没有,有几米应该好好用魔力
B
BrightLine
如果你还有钱要进去呢,卖了房子,home equity,得了奖金,中了IPO怎么办?
s
spectral606
兄弟们刚卷起袖子准备加大定投 :-)

不过现在有多少balance和继续并加大定投并不冲突

B
BrightLine
赞,大家都来了
k
kcfx
还是有蛮大区别的呀,假设你有3米初始资金,$1000 VS $10000/月,定投VFINX 25年之后

蒙地卡罗25th Percentile的结果大概是26米 vs 40米