Based on the historical performance of the , it’s that second decision—the fear-based move to sell—that is the more dangerous one. In fact, even if one was the world’s worst market timer over the past several decades, one still made money on stocks, according to an analysis done by institutional portfolio manager and financial writer Ben Carlson.
He names his awful (or perhaps unlucky) investor “Bob.” Bob made his first investment in the beginning of 1973, right before a 48 percent crash for the S&P 500. Bob then held onto stocks after the drop, saving a total of $46,000, and not getting up the gumption to commit more savings until September 1987—right before a 34 percent crash. Bob then continued to hold tight, making only two more investments before retirement, which came right before the 2000 crash and then the 2007 crash!
So how did “Bob” do after these 42 years of epic market misfortune? Actually, he made money. As the market successively made record highs, Bob turned the $184,000 he invested over the years ($6,000 in 1973, $46,000 in 1987, $68,000 in 2000 and $64,000 in 2007) into $1.16 million—for a total profit of $980,000. That represents an annualized return of roughly 9 percent, on a money-weighted basis. Even after accounting for inflation, Bob has increased his wealth substantially by investing in stocks.
The key is that Bob never, ever sold his holdings—instead riding the stock market’s long-term trend higher.
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/the-inspiring-story-of-the-worst-market-timer-ever.html
Based on the historical performance of the , it’s that second decision—the fear-based move to sell—that is the more dangerous one. In fact, even if one was the world’s worst market timer over the past several decades, one still made money on stocks, according to an analysis done by institutional portfolio manager and financial writer Ben Carlson.
He names his awful (or perhaps unlucky) investor “Bob.” Bob made his first investment in the beginning of 1973, right before a 48 percent crash for the S&P 500. Bob then held onto stocks after the drop, saving a total of $46,000, and not getting up the gumption to commit more savings until September 1987—right before a 34 percent crash. Bob then continued to hold tight, making only two more investments before retirement, which came right before the 2000 crash and then the 2007 crash!
So how did “Bob” do after these 42 years of epic market misfortune? Actually, he made money. As the market successively made record highs, Bob turned the $184,000 he invested over the years ($6,000 in 1973, $46,000 in 1987, $68,000 in 2000 and $64,000 in 2007) into $1.16 million—for a total profit of $980,000. That represents an annualized return of roughly 9 percent, on a money-weighted basis. Even after accounting for inflation, Bob has increased his wealth substantially by investing in stocks.
The key is that Bob never, ever sold his holdings—instead riding the stock market’s long-term trend higher.
定投和地产， 都是赌的美国国运， 每个月的老老实实的投定量的钱， 一年看一次。
这个是我从大学开始的定投回报。
1，寻求最大收益，就是“贪婪“。
2，认为自己很聪明，要比别人做得更好。
这也是生活动力，没有贬义。
巴菲特不是说过嘛，要margin of safety. 不能去买太贵的东西。如果非得买的话，要少买，一点一点的买。
401K就是典型的定投。每次买的不多。但是每两周你都买。没退休的时候，你应该盼股市跌嘛。越跌越高兴。因为你需要积累的时候，买的便宜。最好是退休的时候股市开始涨。但是多数人都喜欢股市涨。但实际上，你需要积累的时候股市涨很亏。因为买的贵。
股市和房市一样，不能买太超值的东西。
但是也不要去听那些天天吓唬你股市风险高的人。如果把时间轴拉长，你会发现指数的风险并不比房市高。我的观点就是现在越来越倾向于all the same market。 现在的各类assets，风险指数大概都差不多。属于一荣俱荣，一损俱损。（如果科技股崩了，硅谷的房价也会跌。现在杭州不就是如此嘛）。
股市今年涨的不错。很多人会说涨的太快，泡沫太多。但是如果看数据，7大公司，multiple也不过15. 小盘股才12. 完全没有太多泡沫在里面。很多人觉得涨太快是因为他们被2022吓到了。手上筹码太少。
所以熊市里跑出来的人往往会处于一个很尴尬的局面。想买又怕被套。不买吧，股市一直涨个不停。 等真的等不起了跳进去，结果买了给寂寞， 成拎包的了。哈哈。
最好的买入机会是熊市。即使买在了牛市，也不要刻意去规避熊市。因为当市场反转的时候，你根本没机会反应过来。熊市的策略就是寻找合适的工具来对冲风险（这类对冲也是又成本的）。
股市总是会调整的。明天上半年股市很可能会调整来消化今年巨大的涨幅。机会总是有的。
But these days, P/E is not longer a good measure for tech companies. EV/EBITDA is probably a better measurement.
目前的股市跟1999年很像。一旦ai明年不能开始产生预期的经济效益，随时崩盘。电视里的分析家异口同声喊你赶块进场小盘股指，而它的波动指数比标普高出一倍，你觉得是便宜还是贵?
主要原因还是资金还是集中于大盘股。分配到小盘股的比较少。12月小盘股两周内涨17%。远远领先大盘股。一个板块开始领先死皮，往往会持续比较长的时间。板块轮动的力量。
股市房市都有抗风险加速回报的高人和特技。感谢网友们无私分享。
过了年不用交2023 Tax 了 一定会有些 selling pressure. 不过因为有减息的预期 大市应该维持高位 但再向上冲的可能性不大。耐心等待 只要手上有资金可以调动 会等到的。