通过卫星图片研判阿夫迪夫卡鹅军战损,10月10日至20日鹅装甲车辆损失超过109辆,已经超过去年北顿渡河战役和武勒达战役

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cbam_user
楼主 (文学峸)

Through visual analysis of satellite imagery, our team found Russian military vehicle losses in Avdiivka between October 10 and October 20. The total number exceeded 109, indicating a significant loss of approximately aligning to a brigade-sized force in just ten days.Thread: pic.twitter.com/rhZ6zhxIzm

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

2/ The actual count of destroyed vehicles is notably higher. We excluded about a dozen vehicles with low to medium confidence due to inconsistent imagery coverage. In some cases, it was impossible to determine if a vehicle had remained in place for a while or was in motion pic.twitter.com/5tfhZTJyHO

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

3/ All new lost vehicles are indicated by a red square on the imagery, while old losses that were already present at the end of September are marked with a white square. pic.twitter.com/OcKnprX43h

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

4/ The overwhelming majority of losses were primarily Armored Fighting Vehicles, including BMP-1 and BMP-2 of various configurations, T-72, T-64, and T-80 tanks in different variations, MT-LB, BTRs, and transport vehicles. In total, these losses amount to 109 vehicles. pic.twitter.com/kKBBYFZ1Nr

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

5/ The operation's scale and the involvement of multiple brigades strongly indicate that it is being conducted at the army level. We also see some evidence about additional reinforcements being deployed to the Avdiivka area, but further details cannot be disclosed at this time. pic.twitter.com/xW76Atac42

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

6/ Despite reports of old equipment use, our team identified a significant presence of modern vehicles and equipment in coordinated battalion-level assaults, further underscoring the operation's importance for Russian command. pic.twitter.com/Xer5ei3rX3

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

7/ Upon analyzing the initial phase, our team concluded it was a long-planned, not a reactionary, operation. The observed patterns suggest Russians invested substantial time and resources, expecting significant losses to achieve their objective pic.twitter.com/JDlwsWkhu2

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

8/ Despite large losses, the enemy persisted in employing more mechanized forces to develop the limited success they had achieved, with the aim of securing dominant positions, disrupting logistics, and controlling waste heaps. pic.twitter.com/NqXagr5lVT

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

9/ The Russian vehicle losses have now surpassed those incurred during the Siversky Donets crossing in 2022. It's likely that these losses have already exceeded or will surpass the vehicle losses sustained by the Russians in the Vuheldar area between November 2022 and April 2023. pic.twitter.com/BXFQcNi0k3

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

10/ Two independent sources on the ground estimate Russian vehicle losses at around 200. Our current assessment is primarily focused on geospatial evidence, hence, we have chosen not to include this number, as we currently lack supporting satellite imagery for it. pic.twitter.com/PrcbcAiliP

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

11/ However, the situation is far from stable. Russian forces continue to extensively use guided air-dropped bombs and artillery strikes, along with deploying LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Rockets). Multiple indicators point to active efforts to sustain the operation. pic.twitter.com/tdPRYBo9PV

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

12/ In conclusion, we want to emphasize several key points. This army-level operation, conducted through battalion or battalion-tactical groups, signifies not only the gravity of the operation but also shows an attempt to shift the strategic initiative to the Russian side. pic.twitter.com/tKqorOuaP1

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

13/ The sustainability of these losses is in question, although this approach mirrors what we've observed in previous battles like Mariupol, Vuhledar, and Bakhmut when the Russians committed significant human and material resources and were willing to accept enormous losses pic.twitter.com/Lt8zDfjRsE

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

14/ The operation originally aimed for a faster outcome and the advancement of Avdiivka through its flanks, but the resistance and skills exhibited by Ukrainian defenders have proven to be far more formidable than the Russians had anticipated in their plans. pic.twitter.com/HtVYLh9QVx

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023

15/ To access the complete set of imagery, additional information, and a detailed methodology for this assessment, please visit our website: *****441LcH82Cl pic.twitter.com/c2djc7ZlxA

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 23, 2023
紅塵
可能守不住Avdiivka, 大毛不要命地进攻, 像僵尸部队, 铜矿废料小山丢了...
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cbam_user
有可能,这个是预谋已久的军一级规模的行动,鹅毛不惜一起代价,如果达不到一定的杀伤比,乌军是不会奉陪的
不允许的笔名
俄军已经上二战时候的嘎斯卡车了,似乎有强弩之末的迹象
咲媱
鹅毛在这个局部的兵力是达到了将近四十万,最近扩招了四十万应该都在这里用了,加上从朝鲜搞的武器弹药。孤注一掷了。已伤亡三万
c
cbam_user
不能低估鹅毛的不惜一切代价,已经10天了,看看是变成武勒达尔2.0还是巴赫穆特2.0
咲媱
我认为还有大概三个礼拜的攻势。鹅伤亡3万,是十万人丧失战力,四十万减十万,还有三十万,可以打另外二十天。剩十万就打不动了
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cbam_user
这个GAZ卡车应该是误传,我看到过这个图片。很多专家已经说鹅还有6,70年代的卡车没拿出来用
咲媱
其实烧一壶给普京说过,把当年给大厨的资源给我们,我们也行。普京信了,于是给了资源,烧一壶后悔了,但是只能硬着头皮学大厨。
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cbam_user
我不知道他们要这个小山何用,海玛斯,战术导弹就是杀伤这种软目标的
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cbam_user
我个人觉得,失去了大厨和瓦格纳骨干,光靠格拉西莫夫瞎指挥,可能的结局是武勒达尔2.0
咲媱
这是烧一壶接到命令,必须在冬天前有成果。不能在大厨挂了之后,再没有人能攻打坚城。于是他只好咬牙上了。
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cbam_user
格拉西莫夫已经有一连串失败,这次也不会例外
咲媱
问题是如果他不这么打,就会怕普京觉得他不如大厨。他说是给资源才造成大厨的攻击力。现在资源给他了,他表现不出攻击力是不行的
咲媱
他就是一个纸上谈兵的马谡。
紅塵
位置高, 还可以从那向市区和乌补给线射击
c
cbam_user
光秃秃的一个小土坡,送上去啥都是靶子
咲媱
古有马谡守土山,今有格拉西莫夫守铜山。两个人都觉得制高点非常重要,必须守住。
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thrawn
该市南部的俄军打得还行,北部不知谁在指挥不顾伤亡得冲刺着
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bsmile
军一级?开玩笑了一个军有好几万人,那个小地方哪摆得下?
c
cbam_user
南北两翼+添油战术,再说不是所有几万号人都是步兵