One bright day in late autumn a family of Ants were bustling about in the warm sunshine, drying out the grain they had stored up during the summer, when a starving Grasshopper, his fiddle under his arm, came up and humbly begged for a bite to eat.
"What!" cried the Ants in surprise, "haven't you stored anything away for the winter? What in the world were you doing all last summer?"
"I didn't have time to store up any food," whined the Grasshopper; "I was so busy making music that before I knew it the summer was gone."
The Ants shrugged their shoulders in disgust.
"Making music, were you?" they cried. "Very well; now dance!" And they turned their backs on the Grasshopper and went on with their work.
房东生意，现金流是命脉，多少房东死在这里， reserves, reserves and reserves, 这是唯一经济衰退的救命药.
猴哥和我，we both sensed and were anticipating the short-lived 2018 crash, 我们的 stress test, 就是必须在有35% 空置的情况下， still operational，所以2016-2017那两年，我是大量的de-leverage.
这几天连续看到几个大佬发出对未来经济不乐观的消息，感觉我们小民是否也要考虑一下。万一经济萧条来了，我们该如何应对？就算是杞人忧天，也不妨考虑一下。
The Æsop for Children The Ants & the Grasshopper
One bright day in late autumn a family of Ants were bustling about in the warm sunshine, drying out the grain they had stored up during the summer, when a starving Grasshopper, his fiddle under his arm, came up and humbly begged for a bite to eat.
"What!" cried the Ants in surprise, "haven't you stored anything away for the winter? What in the world were you doing all last summer?"
"I didn't have time to store up any food," whined the Grasshopper; "I was so busy making music that before I knew it the summer was gone."
The Ants shrugged their shoulders in disgust.
"Making music, were you?" they cried. "Very well; now dance!" And they turned their backs on the Grasshopper and went on with their work.
洗洗睡吧
没余粮再要是没有工作还不急了不是
如果加息过头，多长时间市场才会有反应
抛开国际国内的政治问题不谈，只是从经济层面来说。
加息：Fed 加息没有停止的意思，估计12月份又是一个50 点。通货膨胀问题不是一时半会儿就能控制住的。最怕的是，Fed加息控制不好，就像是一辆快速行驶的车，刹不住轧，直接翻车了。那时候，就有点像1929 年大萧条的前期。
失业率：大厂裁员的消息一个接一个，而且都是白领高薪的岗位。各大公司都在为过冬做准备，一早就把recession 放在明年budget 里了。公司大佬们公开告诉大家，推迟买大件物品，留好储备金。我觉得大佬能这么说，一定是他看到了我们小民看不到的东西。我觉得还是要小心为妙。我担心裁员的浪潮会接着来。公司不可能一味地靠提高产品价格来弥补成本的上涨，终有一天消费者买不起了或者买的少了，公司要活下去，就得瘦身自保，到时候就是大面积裁员的开始。这种情况下不是靠你努力+能力就能解决问题的。白领高薪的人应该是消费的主力军吧，他们没钱了，势必影响整个经济环境。骨牌效应会体现出来。
房地产中的小地主：当利率高居不下，房地产势必受到影响。小地主们，看着房价下跌，心里应该不舒服。只求租客别失业，能按时收到租就烧高香了。如果失业率居高不下，租客交不起租了。地主要还贷款，又赶不上租客。那时候房子就像是个烫手山芋。沙滩上数钱的日子一去不复返了。地主家的余粮日渐减少了.
我知道一般“砖家”预测，大萧条的可能性不大。但是专家多是马后炮，大家还是要根据自家的情况，做过风险评估。储备金多多益善。
当然现金为王
富贵险中求，
等安全了，股市也新高了，房价也新高，租金也狂涨了！
然后又进入下个轮回！
运气好的话， 你买在低位，卖在高位，循环往复。或买在高位，但还有更高在等你， 像过去几年.
运气不好的话，你买在高位，等下一个高潮。或买在低位，但还有更低的位。像2008，2009，2010，。。。。
6000 sq ft house.
Stress test, 以及房地产衰退的应对. - smlandlord发表于 投资理财 - 论坛 | 文学城 (wenxuecity.com)
Stress test, 以及房地产衰退的应对. 来源: smlandlord 于 2022-01-16 09:17:00 [档案] [转至博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读： 14070 次 (1156 bytes) 字体：调大/重置/调小 | 加入书签 | 打印 | 所有跟帖 | 加跟贴 | 当前最热讨论主题 | 编辑 | 删除我做了房东近30年，经历了2次半的经济衰退，其实危机即转机，猴哥以前说过，危机是常态, 每次都是上一个台阶的机会.
我在中西部，一般来说房价不会打涨也基本没有大跌，几次经济衰退，我中部地区房价只是掉10-15%，但是vacancy会一直下降，我最坏时候是差不多20% vacant.
房东生意，现金流是命脉，多少房东死在这里， reserves, reserves and reserves, 这是唯一经济衰退的救命药.
猴哥和我，we both sensed and were anticipating the short-lived 2018 crash, 我们的 stress test, 就是必须在有35% 空置的情况下， still operational，所以2016-2017那两年，我是大量的de-leverage.
reserves 的来源，我一般是在房产高涨年代，重贷，保障2-3年的付贷款的金额，当然，这个每个人都是有不同应对，保障一份高收入的w2也是一个办法.
充足的子弹，每次都给了我上一个台阶的机会，02-08，我是从38门到160，第一次退休，12-16，我是160到600，2018-2021，700到今天近1000.
否则的话只是多买或少买个投资房的区别，削减生活开支呗，没有别的好办法。或者回中国躺平，生活开支能小一点。反正天无绝人之路，再有身心健康最重要，危机也是一两年的时间，过去就会复苏的，有钱准备好抄底也不错。