We continue to expect inflation to remain sluggish over the medium term, especially on an underlying basis, because weaker aggregate demand and a higher unemployment rate should reduce any upward pressures on prices. As a result, we're considerably more likely to end 2021 with core PCE inflation still below 2%, and very likely below 1.75% as well. The new inflation framework should guide the Fed to keep interest rates low until inflation dynamics have shown credible evidence that inflation is sustainably achieving the symmetric 2% goal, which will keep rates at the zero lower bound through the end of 2021 (our forecast horizon).
我发一篇3月20几号为担心通胀的中坛同学写的写的。今天更新一下：因为QE担心通胀，本国货币下跌不是没根据的，特别是有些地方08年放的还没有完全收回来，只是说目前没有迹象，欧洲日本澳洲还是通缩风险大于通胀。各国央行当然清楚不断QE的后果，所以政策是会随时调整的，大家也随时观察吧。
没时间多聊，简单科普一下为什么欧美澳新目前的QE不会导致通货膨胀。尽量不用教科书语言，不用看经济书，想想就能明白。
大家讲的印钱其实是QE，就是央行买债券，增加现金的供应、流动性，和一战时期德国印刷机印钱不一样的。恐慌中有几个互相影响的现象1）大家都藏钱不用钱，有些人真会取钱藏床底下 2）失业 3）银行坏账增加，资产价格下降，储备不达标，这时也必须筹现金而不是用于出借业务。这三个现象互相影响，恶性循环，以至于对物资的需求减少、物价下降，最终导致现金枯竭，通缩风险。这个时候，如果央行利率已是零了，而负利率相当有害，只能用QE来增加现金流动。因为通缩危险、现金枯竭进行的QE不会导致通胀。这样一轮一轮地QE直到银行民众不藏钱了，开始用了，通胀就开始了，这时美联储就要开始卖债券，将现金收回，涨利息。
下面是华尔街某大行此周研究报告里关于美国通胀的一段，我抄在这里：
We continue to expect inflation to remain sluggish over the medium term, especially on an underlying basis, because weaker aggregate demand and a higher unemployment rate should reduce any upward pressures on prices. As a result, we're considerably more likely to end 2021 with core PCE inflation still below 2%, and very likely below 1.75% as well. The new inflation framework should guide the Fed to keep interest rates low until inflation dynamics have shown credible evidence that inflation is sustainably achieving the symmetric 2% goal, which will keep rates at the zero lower bound through the end of 2021 (our forecast horizon).
更多我的博客文章>>> 科普篇：QE不是德国一战时印刷机哗哗地印钞票，不会导致通涨 种下仇恨，你能得到什么？ 想把谭德赛罢职，过程是这样的 和中国脱钩开始了 关于阴谋论
疫情不会再起？大选还有半年。油价？快说说下一步。
https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/72332/201803/38891.html
I bought large position of ITM around $37. FED purchases bonds as first step was highly expected.