印度这波新冠是双变异病毒 (double mutation)

Q
Qiguoji
楼主 (未名空间)

看着很厉害的样子。
https://news.sky.com/story/is-the-indian-covid-variant-more-infectious-and-
should-the-uk-be-concerned-12280387

A new double mutation COVID-19 variant is thought to be behind a sudden
surge in cases in India that has overwhelmed hospitals.

The variant was only confirmed on 25 March by the Indian government so the
data are still not 100% clear on its effects when compared to existing forms of the virus.

However, scientists and doctors are concerned this particular variant could be more transmissible and may even make vaccines less effective.

A total of 182 cases have been detected in the UK, 162 in the five weeks up to 16 April, forcing Boris Johnson to postpone his trip to India and the
government to add it to its travel "red list".

Sky News looks at what we know about the new variant.

What is the new variant?

Its official name is B.1.617, but is being called the Indian variant.

Viruses regularly mutate but most are insignificant, however, some mutations can make the virus more infectious, deadly or resistant to vaccines.

The Indian virus is one of those - especially because two mutations have
come together to help infect cells and evade the immune system.

Live COVID updates from UK and around world

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
COVID variants 'high on our concerns'

It has evolved independently but has the same mutation as the Californian
variant and nearly the same as the South African and Brazil/Manaus ones.

In lab tests, the South African variant (B.1.351) and Brazil variant (P.1)
both have a key mutation, E484K, which can help the virus evade antibodies
produced by vaccines or by having had COVID-19. It is also more
transmissible.

The Californian variant (B.1.429), discovered in December, carries the L452R mutation that makes it about 20% more infectious.

The Indian variant has the E484Q mutation, which is very similar to the one found in the South African and Brazil variants, and also has the L452R
mutation found in the Californian one.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
January: New COVID variant feared to be ravaging LA

What is happening in India?

Cases in India have risen rapidly since mid-March after weeks of steady
decline.

There were more than 280,000 new infections on Sunday, nearly triple the
previous high seen in September. Deaths have also been rising to more than 1,000 every day since 13 April.

Hospitals are becoming overrun and they are running out of ventilators, with New Delhi placed under a week's strict lockdown from 19 April.
Patients suffering from COVID-19 get treatment in a hospital in New Delhi
Image: New Delhi's hospitals are running out of ventilators

There is a worry India's second wave is even worse than appears, as
scientists are concerned about figures being under-reported.

India also does not have as comprehensive a genome sequencing programme as
the UK so cases of the Indian variant there are likely to be higher than
reported.

"The exponential rise is quite staggering," Dr Deepti Gurdasani, clinical
epidemiologist and senior lecturer in machine learning at Queen Mary
University of London, told Sky News.

"We first saw the rise in Maharashtra state, then other states are seeing a rise.

"What seems quite clear is there's a rise and the new variant has become
dominant in India."
India coronavirus
Image: There are concerns cases are being under-reported in India

Is the Indian variant more transmissible and will vaccines still work
against it?

Dr Gurdasani, who trained as a doctor and worked in India for 10 years, said it is "very likely it's more transmissible".

She said: "There are two mutations here. The first is similar to the Manaus variant and we know that is affecting vaccine effectiveness.

"The second is the same as the Californian, which has been associated in
labs with escaping immunity - both of antibodies and T-cells - and also
increased transmissibility."

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Delhi cemetery low on space as COVID cases surge

She continued: "This is quite worrying, it builds a really concerning
picture as it ticks all the boxes for rising cases and outcompeting the
vaccine.

"We don't have definitive data but we can see from the other variants there's more than enough to be concerned about."

Dr Gurdasani added that the Indian variant shares the same mutation as both the South African and Manaus variants, which has been associated with a
reduction of effectiveness in the Oxford-AstraZeneca, Johnson and Johnson
and Novavax vaccines.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Nearly one million gather for Indian ritual bath

Should people in the UK be concerned?

Boris Johnson has postponed his trip to India due to the surge in cases and shortly after, India was added to the UK's "red list", where arrivals from
certain countries have to go into hotel quarantine.

Several scientists have called for India to be on the red list, including Dr Gurdasani, although she added that the system "doesn't work because by the time a variant is here, it's too late".

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
'Sensible to postpone' India trip - Boris Johnson

"Because we are so far into our vaccination programme and if this variant
means a lower vaccine effectiveness, if this becomes dominant in the UK it
will be catastrophic," she added.

"India did not take pre-emptive action and the situation is really dire - we need to start acting before it gets as bad as India."

Professor Christina Pagel, a member of the Independent Sage committee and
director of clinical operational research at University College London, had also called for India to be on the red list.

She said if the UK's vaccination programme goes to plan it will still be the end of July before every adult has one dose, as she added that since UK
schools opened, the Indian variant is the fastest growing.

It is doubling every week, as did the Kent variant when it was detected in
September, but is doing so under "much tighter restrictions and more vaxxed people", she said.
Why India's COVID spike means the world has to wait for its jabs
Why India's COVID spike means the world has to wait for its jabs

The British government has said the Indian variant is a "variant under
investigation", not a "variant of concern", due to a lack of evidence, so
surge testing or forensic contact tracing are not taking place.

Prof Pagel said: "Because we are very good at sequencing, we might be the
first country to provide such definitive evidence. But by the time we do, B.1.617 is likely to be quite widespread and it might be too late to contain
it."

She predicts that with the current growth rate, the Indian variant could be dominant by the end of June.
l
lasp

肯定传美帝来了
有阿三同事说马上要接家里人来躲避

【 在 Qiguoji (我是个清纯的猥琐男) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看着很厉害的样子。
:
: https://news.sky.com/story/is-the-indian-covid-variant-more-infectious-and-
: should-the-uk-be-concerned-12280387
:
:
: A new double mutation COVID-19 variant is thought to be behind a sudden
: surge in cases in India that has overwhelmed hospitals.
:
: The variant was only confirmed on 25 March by the Indian government so the
: data are still not 100% clear on its effects when compared to existing
forms
: of the virus.
:
: However, scientists and doctors are concerned this particular variant
could
: be more transmissible and may even make vaccines less effective.
:
: A total of 182 cases have been detected in the UK, 162 in the five weeks
up
: to 16 April, forcing Boris Johnson to postpone his trip to India and the
: government to add it to its travel "red list".
:
: Sky News looks at what we know about the new variant.
:
: What is the new variant?
:
: Its official name is B.1.617, but is being called the Indian variant.
:
: Viruses regularly mutate but most are insignificant, however, some
mutations
: can make the virus more infectious, deadly or resistant to vaccines.
:
: The Indian virus is one of those - especially because two mutations have
: come together to help infect cells and evade the immune system.
:
: Live COVID updates from UK and around world
:
: Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
: COVID variants 'high on our concerns'
:
: It has evolved independently but has the same mutation as the Californian : variant and nearly the same as the South African and Brazil/Manaus ones.
:
: In lab tests, the South African variant (B.1.351) and Brazil variant (P.1)
: both have a key mutation, E484K, which can help the virus evade antibodies
: produced by vaccines or by having had COVID-19. It is also more
: transmissible.
:
: The Californian variant (B.1.429), discovered in December, carries the
L452R
: mutation that makes it about 20% more infectious.
:
: The Indian variant has the E484Q mutation, which is very similar to the
one
: found in the South African and Brazil variants, and also has the L452R
: mutation found in the Californian one.
:
: Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
: January: New COVID variant feared to be ravaging LA
:
: What is happening in India?
:
: Cases in India have risen rapidly since mid-March after weeks of steady
: decline.
:
: There were more than 280,000 new infections on Sunday, nearly triple the
: previous high seen in September. Deaths have also been rising to more than 1
: ,000 every day since 13 April.
:
: Hospitals are becoming overrun and they are running out of ventilators,
with
: New Delhi placed under a week's strict lockdown from 19 April.
: Patients suffering from COVID-19 get treatment in a hospital in New Delhi
: Image: New Delhi's hospitals are running out of ventilators
:
: There is a worry India's second wave is even worse than appears, as
: scientists are concerned about figures being under-reported.
:
: India also does not have as comprehensive a genome sequencing programme as
: the UK so cases of the Indian variant there are likely to be higher than
: reported.
:
: "The exponential rise is quite staggering," Dr Deepti Gurdasani, clinical : epidemiologist and senior lecturer in machine learning at Queen Mary
: University of London, told Sky News.
:
: "We first saw the rise in Maharashtra state, then other states are seeing a
: rise.
:
: "What seems quite clear is there's a rise and the new variant has become
: dominant in India."
: India coronavirus
: Image: There are concerns cases are being under-reported in India
:
: Is the Indian variant more transmissible and will vaccines still work
: against it?
:
: Dr Gurdasani, who trained as a doctor and worked in India for 10 years,
said
: it is "very likely it's more transmissible".
:
: She said: "There are two mutations here. The first is similar to the
Manaus
: variant and we know that is affecting vaccine effectiveness.
:
: "The second is the same as the Californian, which has been associated in
: labs with escaping immunity - both of antibodies and T-cells - and also
: increased transmissibility."
:
: Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
: Delhi cemetery low on space as COVID cases surge
:
: She continued: "This is quite worrying, it builds a really concerning
: picture as it ticks all the boxes for rising cases and outcompeting the
: vaccine.
:
: "We don't have definitive data but we can see from the other variants
there'
: s more than enough to be concerned about."
:
: Dr Gurdasani added that the Indian variant shares the same mutation as
both
: the South African and Manaus variants, which has been associated with a
: reduction of effectiveness in the Oxford-AstraZeneca, Johnson and Johnson : and Novavax vaccines.
:
: Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
: Nearly one million gather for Indian ritual bath
:
: Should people in the UK be concerned?
:
: Boris Johnson has postponed his trip to India due to the surge in cases
and
: shortly after, India was added to the UK's "red list", where arrivals from
: certain countries have to go into hotel quarantine.
:
: Several scientists have called for India to be on the red list, including Dr
: Gurdasani, although she added that the system "doesn't work because by
the
: time a variant is here, it's too late".
:
: Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
: 'Sensible to postpone' India trip - Boris Johnson
:
: "Because we are so far into our vaccination programme and if this variant : means a lower vaccine effectiveness, if this becomes dominant in the UK it
: will be catastrophic," she added.
:
: "India did not take pre-emptive action and the situation is really dire - we
: need to start acting before it gets as bad as India."
:
: Professor Christina Pagel, a member of the Independent Sage committee and : director of clinical operational research at University College London,
had
: also called for India to be on the red list.
:
: She said if the UK's vaccination programme goes to plan it will still be
the
: end of July before every adult has one dose, as she added that since UK
: schools opened, the Indian variant is the fastest growing.
:
: It is doubling every week, as did the Kent variant when it was detected in
: September, but is doing so under "much tighter restrictions and more
vaxxed
: people", she said.
: Why India's COVID spike means the world has to wait for its jabs
: Why India's COVID spike means the world has to wait for its jabs
:
: The British government has said the Indian variant is a "variant under
: investigation", not a "variant of concern", due to a lack of evidence, so : surge testing or forensic contact tracing are not taking place.
:
: Prof Pagel said: "Because we are very good at sequencing, we might be the : first country to provide such definitive evidence. But by the time we do, B.
: 1.617 is likely to be quite widespread and it might be too late to contain
: it."
:
: She predicts that with the current growth rate, the Indian variant could
be
: dominant by the end of June.
Q
Qiguoji

这个看着集成了 巴西变种 南非变种 和 加州变种 的精华,
不知我帝的疫苗能不能扛得住呀

【 在 lasp ( b) 的大作中提到: 】
: 肯定传美帝来了
: 有阿三同事说马上要接家里人来躲避
: forms
: could
: up
: mutations
: L452R
: one
: 1
: with
: ...................

u
umner

不妙

你也得小心了

现在不知道美国的疫苗能不能对付印度毒株

【 在 lasp ( b) 的大作中提到: 】
: 肯定传美帝来了
: 有阿三同事说马上要接家里人来躲避

l
lasp

我们都WFH没问题

【 在 umner (jhq) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不妙
:
: 你也得小心了
:
: 现在不知道美国的疫苗能不能对付印度毒株
:
: 【 在 lasp ( b) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 肯定传美帝来了
: : 有阿三同事说马上要接家里人来躲避
g
gjq

2星期前湾区就查到有了,而且这种变异都是滞后好几个星期的抽查。

过1个月看加州的情况吧。传染性显然是厉害得多,新德里到香港一个航班1/4人中招,而且大多数人不是入境第一次测出来(第一天测出4个,一共47个),而是在隔离酒店
住了很多天(其中一半住了13-14天)才查出来,10天以上才测出的这些人都是飞机上
传染的。

但是致命程度以及击穿疫苗的能力还要一些时间证明

【 在 lasp ( b) 的大作中提到: 】
: 肯定传美帝来了
: 有阿三同事说马上要接家里人来躲避
: forms
: could
: up
: mutations
: L452R
: one
: 1
: with
: ...................

r
rtscts

三哥不负众望,2021一声炮响,给世界送来了covid 21,瞌睡乔估计都惊醒了。
g
gjq

虽然说现在没有数据,但是击穿的可能性恐怕不小。希望击穿以后重症保护不下降太多

【 在 umner (jhq) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不妙
: 你也得小心了
: 现在不知道美国的疫苗能不能对付印度毒株

Q
Qiguoji

pfizer 估计要上第四针了;
这么下去,胳膊都受不了了

【 在 rtscts (syslink) 的大作中提到: 】
: 三哥不负众望,2021一声炮响,给世界送来了covid 21,瞌睡乔估计都惊醒了。

u
umner

那就好,安全第一

【 在 lasp ( b) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我们都WFH没问题

g
gjq

等你打第三针的时候,应该已经把这个patch加上了。但是也可能又出了一个新变异,
而且变异普及速度比第四针普及得快

【 在 Qiguoji (我是个清纯的猥琐男) 的大作中提到: 】
: pfizer 估计要上第四针了;
: 这么下去,胳膊都受不了了

PBSNPR1

This is a really bad news.
tcctmers

放任毒窝里病毒泛滥变异

这就是民主自由司法独立的威力

还是土鳖科学的防疫方法正确

全国屁民纪律性团结性都很强

lockdown之后进入良性循环

后面只要一发现病毒案例直接全员核酸检测

局部lockdonw

将病毒杀死在襁褓中

现在土鳖哪有病毒,更何况病毒变异?

夜夜笙歌
forenzhang

照美帝防疫那松懈劲,如果这次印度变异病毒这么厉害,美帝肯定逃不过去。

【 在 lasp ( b) 的大作中提到: 】
: 肯定传美帝来了
: 有阿三同事说马上要接家里人来躲避
: forms
: could
: up
: mutations
: L452R
: one
: 1
: with
: ...................

PBSNPR1

资本主义让印度人变成鬼

【 在 tcctmers (谁的帝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 放任毒窝里病毒泛滥变异
: 这就是民主自由司法独立的威力
: 还是土鳖科学的防疫方法正确
: 全国屁民纪律性团结性都很强
: lockdown之后进入良性循环
: 后面只要一发现病毒案例直接全员核酸检测
: 局部lockdonw
: 将病毒杀死在襁褓中
: 现在土鳖哪有病毒,更何况病毒变异?
: 夜夜笙歌

beijingren4


【 在 Qiguoji (我是个清纯的猥琐男) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看着很厉害的样子。
: https://news.sky.com/story/is-the-indian-covid-variant-more-infectious-and-
: should-the-uk-be-concerned-12280387
: A new double mutation COVID-19 variant is thought to be behind a sudden
: surge in cases in India that has overwhelmed hospitals.
: The variant was only confirmed on 25 March by the Indian government so the
: data are still not 100% clear on its effects when compared to existing
forms
: of the virus.
: However, scientists and doctors are concerned this particular variant
could
: be more transmissible and may even make vaccines less effective.
: ...................